Democratic caucuses and primaries

Skeptic Ginger said:
Whether the article does or not, I just heard him say it.

I don't know the Corn Pop reference. Try reading the article.
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I read the article a while ago, and the tweet it discusses yesterday. You know, before Sanders ever gave the speech you claim it references. Maybe read past the headline next time?
 
Tsukasa Buddha said:
There is no believable scenario that the DNC could have slowed the process to help Sanders, so I don't see how you can see their intention in the slow results.
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Just because there is no evidence that the DNC did something they have no motive to do isn't proof they didn't do it.

Technically, I mean.
 
Beeyon said:
The question is whether or not the DNC could have sped things up to help someone else. If they could, but are not, it is indicative of them not being anti-Sanders. I think it is unlikely that there was no way to push results out faster.
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I think it is unlikely there was a way for the DNC to push results out faster. Just look at the reporting on the convoluted process the NDP had to deal with, even after ditching the app that the IDP used.
 
Biden will be as happy as he can be with this result. Second place means he is still in it. He’ll want to carry on until at least South Carolina and probably Super Tuesday.

Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Steyer may as well drop out now. If the Democrats want to find a “moderate” flag bearer they have to clear the lane and leave it to Biden.
 
angrysoba said:
Biden will be as happy as he can be with this result. Second place means he is still in it. He’ll want to carry on until at least South Carolina and probably Super Tuesday.
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If Bernie gets 46% in Nevada, it's all over. He's the Democratic nominee.
 
Brainster said:
If Bernie gets 46% in Nevada, it's all over. He's the Democratic nominee.
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I think you could be right. But the Dems will want one more roll of the dice. Their only chance of getting someone else in is to appoint a flag bearer to take on Sanders.

Of course, I think Sanders will still win it.
 
Brainster said:
If Bernie gets 46% in Nevada, it's all over. He's the Democratic nominee.
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If he wins SC his predictit price will go above $.90. South Carolina is a better indicator than anything so far.

Good grief. Right now Hillary Clinton is priced two cents above Warren.

That is really depressing for a number of reasons.
 
Belz... said:
I have an odd feeling that Sanders will win the nomination, and then lose the general, heralding a whole new, conservative era. :(
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I don't see this at all.
For starters, never-Sanders would probably still vote the rest of the Democratic ticket, so the House won't flip.
Next, Sanders losing in the General might be the fastest, easiest way to better align the youth vote with the Democratic establishment.
2022 would see a more pragmatic Blue Wave taking the Senate and forcing an Impeachment Conviction.
 
Belz... said:
I have an odd feeling that Sanders will win the nomination, and then lose the general, heralding a whole new, conservative era.
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This seems likely to me as well. :(

The Great Zaganza said:
For starters, never-Sanders would probably still vote the rest of the Democratic ticket, so the House won't flip.
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Solidly Democratic voters aren't the people we need to be worrying about here, undecided and late-deciding mainstream moderates are.

They are old enough to fear abrupt systemic changes, but not so old that they are afraid of waiting in line at the polls.

The Great Zaganza said:
Next, Sanders losing in the General might be the fastest, easiest way to better align the youth vote with the Democratic establishment.
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Ah yes, the coveted youth vote.
 
d4m10n said:
Ah yes, the coveted youth vote.
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The Youth are voting more than anyone else ....
over their lifetime (pretty much by definition).
People tend to keep on voting for the party they voted last, so even if only half of eligible young people vote, if they overwhelmingly vote Democrat, the GOP is screwed in the medium to long term.
 
The medium to long-term sounds great and all, but at the moment we should strive for 2020 vision.

Is there reason to believe the youth vote will make the difference this time around, unlike the last half dozen times?
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
The Youth are voting more than anyone else ....
over their lifetime (pretty much by definition).
People tend to keep on voting for the party they voted last, so even if only half of eligible young people vote, if they overwhelmingly vote Democrat, the GOP is screwed in the medium to long term.
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The Democrats: "We plan ahead, that way we're never doing anything right now."

If Trump gets another SCOTUS judge on the bench there isn't going to be a medium to long term.

I don't care about how many votes the Democrats are going to get in 2024 or 2028.
 
I would suggest that Bernie's very enthusiastic, young support base will be very useful in the general election. No other democratic candidate has shown the ability to mass such a large body of volunteers.

Even a modest increase in turnout in key states could be the the deciding factor for the general election. Bernie is best positioned among the candidates to launch a vigorous get out the vote effort.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
I would suggest that Bernie's very enthusiastic, young support base will be very useful in the general election.
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Getting the young'ns worked up is easy, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

It just never makes them vote.

Youth voting will not raise more then a statistically meaningless percentage point or two in 2020.

The Democrats have got to stop pinning their hopes on some youth voter uprising that is never going to happen.

We made it through the end of the sixties, Vietnam, an entire Constitutional Amendment about voting age, Watergate, and NONE OF THAT made 24 and younger voters peak above 35%.

Bernie and Trump aren't going to magically be different.

2020 will be won or lost with the same, basic with only minor variation, voter demographic as 2016.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Getting the young'ns worked up is easy, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

It just never makes them vote.

Youth voting will not raise more then a statistically meaningless percentage point or two in 2020.

The Democrats have got to stop pinning their hopes on some youth voter uprising that is never going to happen.

We made it through the end of the sixties, Vietnam, an entire Constitutional Amendment about voting age, Watergate, and NONE OF THAT made 24 and younger voters peak above 35%.

Bernie and Trump aren't going to magically be different.

2020 will be won or lost with the same, basic with only minor variation, voter demographic as 2016.
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I noticed you chose to ignore the rest of my very short post to go beat that straw man to death.

I didn't say the youth vote turnout will swing the election. Bernie has a highly motivated base that is dumping countless man-hours into local voter turnout efforts for free.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
Yes you did, you just restricted to the swing states.
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My post was quite clear that I would attribute any increase in voter turnout to get out the vote efforts by Bernie volunteers. This is not targeted nor limited to young people.

In the interest in being clear and not getting into a tedious back and forth about what was said where, let me restate.

Bernie's base, which includes a lot of enthusiastic young people, are going to do lots of free work in the general election to increase general voter turnout. Bernie has already demonstrated the effectiveness of this machine through his widespread volunteer community canvas efforts.
 
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