Rolfe
Adult human female
That's slightly promising, even though they completely ignored it in Helen's case.
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Split Thread David Gilroy: murder conviction goes to Scottish Review Commission
- Thread starter anglolawyer
- Start date
ScottUK1963
New Blood
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2018
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NightOfTheDemon
Critical Thinker
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2016
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From Rolfe's post 543
“I always wondered why he took the phone with him in the first place. If he wanted to go right off the radar and not have to explain himself, accidentally "forgetting" it and leaving it on his desk would be the answer. No chance of being traced. (Also, he might have got to sleep in his own bed that night instead of being on the wrong end of an all-night interrogation.)”
I agree, however, DG must have thought it was important to take his mobile phone with him.
The “it was raining” reason given by DG for turning right at Crianlarich is so implausible that even a pathological liar would doubt its veracity. It is likely DG would have wanted to avoid explaining why he turned right onto the A82 at Crianlarich because there is no plausible reason to do this. Therefore, DG turned right at Crianlarich because he had an ulterior motive. I believe he intended to switch his mobile phone on when he was driving south on the A82 after Tarbet but unintentionally switched his mobile phone on near Ardlui at 2134. (Option 2) If DG had managed to switch his mobile phone on when he was south of Tarbet on the A82 then there would be no need to explain a right turn at Crianlarich as he would have told police he drove on the A83 from Inveraray to Tarbet. However, if DG told police he drove on the A83 from Inveraray to get to Tarbet and switched his phone on after passing Tarbet the police would have found out he was lying as they have CCTV evidence that he passed The Green Welly, Tyndrum at 2108, so he actually dodged a bullet.
The police were not interested in DG’s intentions when he turned right at Crianlarich and they would not have been interested if he had driven straight on when he got to Crianlarich either. The police had one piece of circumstantial evidence (the sighting of a sliver car) that led them to become laser focussed on the R&BT area. However, there was proof that DG had driven past Tyndrum twice. Therefore DG wasted a lot of time and energy driving his broken vehicle further than was necessary in what he thought was a clever misdirection had it gone to plan when it was ultimately not needed. He may have been getting worried that the police would question him more and find out his true intentions, however, they did not.
Police - Why did you drive from Inveraray to Tyndrum to Crianlarich to Tarbet rather than drive the much shorter A83 road directly from Inveraray to Tarbet?
DG - There was no specific reason why I decided to take the much longer Inveraray to Tarbet route even though I was driving a broken car and I knew the police in Edinburgh wanted to speak to me urgently. When I got to Crianlarich I was going to go straight on to the A85 but I turned right because “it was raining” even though this took much longer and I was driving a broken car and I knew the police in Edinburgh wanted to speak to me urgently.
Police - Ok, I don’t see any red flags here, lets move on.
“I always wondered why he took the phone with him in the first place. If he wanted to go right off the radar and not have to explain himself, accidentally "forgetting" it and leaving it on his desk would be the answer. No chance of being traced. (Also, he might have got to sleep in his own bed that night instead of being on the wrong end of an all-night interrogation.)”
I agree, however, DG must have thought it was important to take his mobile phone with him.
The “it was raining” reason given by DG for turning right at Crianlarich is so implausible that even a pathological liar would doubt its veracity. It is likely DG would have wanted to avoid explaining why he turned right onto the A82 at Crianlarich because there is no plausible reason to do this. Therefore, DG turned right at Crianlarich because he had an ulterior motive. I believe he intended to switch his mobile phone on when he was driving south on the A82 after Tarbet but unintentionally switched his mobile phone on near Ardlui at 2134. (Option 2) If DG had managed to switch his mobile phone on when he was south of Tarbet on the A82 then there would be no need to explain a right turn at Crianlarich as he would have told police he drove on the A83 from Inveraray to Tarbet. However, if DG told police he drove on the A83 from Inveraray to get to Tarbet and switched his phone on after passing Tarbet the police would have found out he was lying as they have CCTV evidence that he passed The Green Welly, Tyndrum at 2108, so he actually dodged a bullet.
The police were not interested in DG’s intentions when he turned right at Crianlarich and they would not have been interested if he had driven straight on when he got to Crianlarich either. The police had one piece of circumstantial evidence (the sighting of a sliver car) that led them to become laser focussed on the R&BT area. However, there was proof that DG had driven past Tyndrum twice. Therefore DG wasted a lot of time and energy driving his broken vehicle further than was necessary in what he thought was a clever misdirection had it gone to plan when it was ultimately not needed. He may have been getting worried that the police would question him more and find out his true intentions, however, they did not.
Police - Why did you drive from Inveraray to Tyndrum to Crianlarich to Tarbet rather than drive the much shorter A83 road directly from Inveraray to Tarbet?
DG - There was no specific reason why I decided to take the much longer Inveraray to Tarbet route even though I was driving a broken car and I knew the police in Edinburgh wanted to speak to me urgently. When I got to Crianlarich I was going to go straight on to the A85 but I turned right because “it was raining” even though this took much longer and I was driving a broken car and I knew the police in Edinburgh wanted to speak to me urgently.
Police - Ok, I don’t see any red flags here, lets move on.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
It's a puzzle to me. It's a totally bizarre thing to do at this point in the day. All the more so when we realise what was showing at the point where he made that turn off the A85. Let's recap.
"Major road works at A82 Ardlui. Delays possible." The straight-on route takes him directly to Edinburgh, on a decent road. Turn right and you're not only on a route that's 20 miles longer, and on the Loch Lomond section of the A82 which was quite frankly a cart track in 2010, you're facing major road works which were just the start of the project to upgrade the road.
Nowadays I could just about imagine that he could have accidentally taken the second exit instead of the first exit from the new roundabout, and then once he realised, thought he'd just go on now he was there. But the roundabout didn't exist in 2010 and that turn needs a very conscious decision. A decision like that needs a reason.
Was he so reluctant to get to Edinburgh and the inevitable confrontation with the police that he shied away from the direct route to put off even more time? I can't see it. He had promised to go straight back to Edinburgh when he spoke to the police around five o'clock at Lochgilphead. Since then he has wasted 27 minutes between Lochgilphead and Inveraray, then another hour and 32 minutes between Inveraray and Tyndrum. So he's basically two hours behind at this point. (Although "only" an hour and a half behind the estimate he gave the police, which possibly factored in the first 27-minute delay, which may have been to drive into Lochgilphead and get some food from the Co-op.) The later he gets to Corstorphine the more suspicious it's going to look, surely. It doesn't make any sort of sense for him to take a route that's going to introduce yet another half-hour delay unless he had a positive reason for doing it.
The only thing he did on that diversion route was switch on his phone. I can't see any reason for the diversion other than the phone switch-on.
The off/on phone switching pattern over the whole day seems to me very regular and very suspicious. His answer to the police as regards that is that he was trying to spare the phone's battery, and in 2010 that's not an unreasonable response. Maybe his car didn't have a USB charging point for a phone, many cars didn't, back then. Power banks were unusual. People did genuinely try to save their phone's battery. But the first three switch points are bang on the divergence points of the northern/southern routes. Nyadd, just before the A84 and the B8075 junction, and Inveraray just beyond/before the A83/A819 junction, both ways. Coincidence? I think not. So how to explain the fourth switch (second switch-on) on the A82 in this context?
Your first proposal, that Gilroy meant to switch the phone on at Ardlui (actually I think the switch-on happened at Inveruglas rather than Ardlui, but that's not important at the moment) to show that he was north of the A82/A83 junction and so hadn't come over the R&BT doesn't make any sense. If he had wanted to send the message that he had driven the A85 route, which he had, all he had to do was to keep driving that route, straight on through Crianlarich, and switch the phone on any time he liked. Turning down the A82 towards the R&BT and switching on the phone to reveal himself passing within only a few miles of Glen Croe (albeit just driving past) is a hell of a funny way to convey "no, I really haven't been anywhere near the R&BT".
The fact that the switch-on was north of the A82/A83 junction is a strong point against the second proposal, the theory that he was trying to make it look as if he had indeed come across the R&BT. If that was his intention we should have seen the phone going on just as he was leaving Tarbet. But, as you say, if he made a mistake and turned the phone on prematurely, that would fit the theory. That's where the possibility (from the timings) that the switch-on actually happened at Inveruglas comes in. It would be very difficult to mistake Ardlui for Tarbet, because you can't see the loch on your left at Ardlui. There are houses in the way, then the marina, then a wood, and the roadworks (which were at the crossing of the burn) where the trees end. Here's the roadworks, a few hundred yards past Ardlui, and you still can't see the loch.
You do see the loch shortly after that, but the road doesn't run along the shore until just past Stuckindroin Farm. After that, though, there's a stretch of about three miles where the road hugs the shore before you get to Inveruglas. I'm not saying Inveruglas is easy to mistake for Tarbet either, but given the half-light, and Gilroy's inevitable physical and mental tiredness by this time, the possiblity that he saw the hydroelectric power station and a couple of houses and thought he was in Tarbet isn't entirely fanciful.
There's no particular reason he had to turn the phone on the instant he passed the relevant junction. He could have waited till Balloch, even, and still accomplished his objective (if that's what it was). He really, really should have waited till he was definitely past the A82/A83 junction before switching it on, and that junction is pretty damn obvious, given that traffic coming south on the A82 from Ardlui has to give way to traffic coming from Arrochar on the A83. But he wasn't necessarily familiar with that section of the road (although he was familiar with it south of Tarbet) and tired, stressed, half-light and so on, maybe he thought that was Tarbet. The other three phone-switches were carried out within a couple of hundred yards of the relevant road junctions. Whereas there would have been no issue in waiting a bit before switching on (or indeed switching off a bit early), his modus operandi suggests he was going for the junctions. So, his tired and stressed brain thinks he's driving through Tarbet, he switches the phone on, and maybe doesn't realise his mistake until he actually does get to Tarbet, about three miles further on.
The trail of phone tracks is actually very clever, assuming he was doing what we think he's doing. Absolutely nothing on the way west to indicate whether he'd driven via the R&BT or Tyndrum. On the way back, nothing to indicate which way he went after Inveraray. If he'd replicated the westward routine on the way home, he'd have switched back on somewhere around Nyadd again. That would have left it entirely up in the air as to which way he'd gone, either direction. That's one hell of a search area, and he could have gone for that option. But it still leaves the Tyndrum route on the table. So, on the way back, turn south in Crianlarich, drive down the A82, and turn the phone on at Tarbet. That really turns the spotlight away from Tyndrum (and Glen Orchy) and focusses it on the R&BT.
He could have done the same thing on the way west, of course. Taken the B8075, A811 and A82 to Tarbet, switching off just before Tarbet, and making it look as if he'd turned left towards the R&BT. Maybe he hadn't thought of that at that stage. Maybe he just wanted to get directly to his chosen disposal site at that point, and save the misdirection for the way back. Maybe he thought that doing it twice would be very difficult to explain if for some reason the police did figure out that he'd gone a very peculiar route.
If the first three phone-switches happened at these precise points purely by chance, when he was only thinking about saving the battery, that would be one hell of a coincidence I think. Which means that the fourth switch was also part of the plan. The only way I can think of that it was part of the plan is that it was a mistake, but I think such a mistake is at least plausible. (If he hadn't made a mistake and had actually switched the phone on just past Tarbet, given that the police knew he'd passed through Tyndrum, it might have been more obvious what he was playing at. But as it was, the too-early switch-on muddies the water to the point where the police aren't getting it.)
So as you say, the police aren't especially curious about that detour. They did ask him why he did it, and he said that it was raining. I think the police know that was a flat-out lie.
But even if it had been raining, why on earth is rain a reason to make a 20-mile diversion from a perfectly good road that will take you straight to Edinburgh on to a bloody cart track with road works and delays flagged up, which will take you a good half hour longer? But when I raised this with Stuart Houston he didn't seem particularly curious about it.
I think the initial question from the police is too complicated and doesn't really nail it. "You were on your way home, having chosen (unusually for you) to take the road through Tyndrum. The road to Edinburgh was straight ahead of you. Why did you choose to turn right where there was a sign about roadworks and delays, to take a much poorer road that's 20 miles further than the direct road straight on?"
But basically yes. I spelled it out to Stuar Houston as clearly as I could, but he seems to be too much in love with this alleged sighting at the R&BT to contemplate the possibility that the R&BT is precisely where Gilroy was not, that day.
"Major road works at A82 Ardlui. Delays possible." The straight-on route takes him directly to Edinburgh, on a decent road. Turn right and you're not only on a route that's 20 miles longer, and on the Loch Lomond section of the A82 which was quite frankly a cart track in 2010, you're facing major road works which were just the start of the project to upgrade the road.
Nowadays I could just about imagine that he could have accidentally taken the second exit instead of the first exit from the new roundabout, and then once he realised, thought he'd just go on now he was there. But the roundabout didn't exist in 2010 and that turn needs a very conscious decision. A decision like that needs a reason.
Was he so reluctant to get to Edinburgh and the inevitable confrontation with the police that he shied away from the direct route to put off even more time? I can't see it. He had promised to go straight back to Edinburgh when he spoke to the police around five o'clock at Lochgilphead. Since then he has wasted 27 minutes between Lochgilphead and Inveraray, then another hour and 32 minutes between Inveraray and Tyndrum. So he's basically two hours behind at this point. (Although "only" an hour and a half behind the estimate he gave the police, which possibly factored in the first 27-minute delay, which may have been to drive into Lochgilphead and get some food from the Co-op.) The later he gets to Corstorphine the more suspicious it's going to look, surely. It doesn't make any sort of sense for him to take a route that's going to introduce yet another half-hour delay unless he had a positive reason for doing it.
The only thing he did on that diversion route was switch on his phone. I can't see any reason for the diversion other than the phone switch-on.
The off/on phone switching pattern over the whole day seems to me very regular and very suspicious. His answer to the police as regards that is that he was trying to spare the phone's battery, and in 2010 that's not an unreasonable response. Maybe his car didn't have a USB charging point for a phone, many cars didn't, back then. Power banks were unusual. People did genuinely try to save their phone's battery. But the first three switch points are bang on the divergence points of the northern/southern routes. Nyadd, just before the A84 and the B8075 junction, and Inveraray just beyond/before the A83/A819 junction, both ways. Coincidence? I think not. So how to explain the fourth switch (second switch-on) on the A82 in this context?
Your first proposal, that Gilroy meant to switch the phone on at Ardlui (actually I think the switch-on happened at Inveruglas rather than Ardlui, but that's not important at the moment) to show that he was north of the A82/A83 junction and so hadn't come over the R&BT doesn't make any sense. If he had wanted to send the message that he had driven the A85 route, which he had, all he had to do was to keep driving that route, straight on through Crianlarich, and switch the phone on any time he liked. Turning down the A82 towards the R&BT and switching on the phone to reveal himself passing within only a few miles of Glen Croe (albeit just driving past) is a hell of a funny way to convey "no, I really haven't been anywhere near the R&BT".
The fact that the switch-on was north of the A82/A83 junction is a strong point against the second proposal, the theory that he was trying to make it look as if he had indeed come across the R&BT. If that was his intention we should have seen the phone going on just as he was leaving Tarbet. But, as you say, if he made a mistake and turned the phone on prematurely, that would fit the theory. That's where the possibility (from the timings) that the switch-on actually happened at Inveruglas comes in. It would be very difficult to mistake Ardlui for Tarbet, because you can't see the loch on your left at Ardlui. There are houses in the way, then the marina, then a wood, and the roadworks (which were at the crossing of the burn) where the trees end. Here's the roadworks, a few hundred yards past Ardlui, and you still can't see the loch.
You do see the loch shortly after that, but the road doesn't run along the shore until just past Stuckindroin Farm. After that, though, there's a stretch of about three miles where the road hugs the shore before you get to Inveruglas. I'm not saying Inveruglas is easy to mistake for Tarbet either, but given the half-light, and Gilroy's inevitable physical and mental tiredness by this time, the possiblity that he saw the hydroelectric power station and a couple of houses and thought he was in Tarbet isn't entirely fanciful.
There's no particular reason he had to turn the phone on the instant he passed the relevant junction. He could have waited till Balloch, even, and still accomplished his objective (if that's what it was). He really, really should have waited till he was definitely past the A82/A83 junction before switching it on, and that junction is pretty damn obvious, given that traffic coming south on the A82 from Ardlui has to give way to traffic coming from Arrochar on the A83. But he wasn't necessarily familiar with that section of the road (although he was familiar with it south of Tarbet) and tired, stressed, half-light and so on, maybe he thought that was Tarbet. The other three phone-switches were carried out within a couple of hundred yards of the relevant road junctions. Whereas there would have been no issue in waiting a bit before switching on (or indeed switching off a bit early), his modus operandi suggests he was going for the junctions. So, his tired and stressed brain thinks he's driving through Tarbet, he switches the phone on, and maybe doesn't realise his mistake until he actually does get to Tarbet, about three miles further on.
The trail of phone tracks is actually very clever, assuming he was doing what we think he's doing. Absolutely nothing on the way west to indicate whether he'd driven via the R&BT or Tyndrum. On the way back, nothing to indicate which way he went after Inveraray. If he'd replicated the westward routine on the way home, he'd have switched back on somewhere around Nyadd again. That would have left it entirely up in the air as to which way he'd gone, either direction. That's one hell of a search area, and he could have gone for that option. But it still leaves the Tyndrum route on the table. So, on the way back, turn south in Crianlarich, drive down the A82, and turn the phone on at Tarbet. That really turns the spotlight away from Tyndrum (and Glen Orchy) and focusses it on the R&BT.
He could have done the same thing on the way west, of course. Taken the B8075, A811 and A82 to Tarbet, switching off just before Tarbet, and making it look as if he'd turned left towards the R&BT. Maybe he hadn't thought of that at that stage. Maybe he just wanted to get directly to his chosen disposal site at that point, and save the misdirection for the way back. Maybe he thought that doing it twice would be very difficult to explain if for some reason the police did figure out that he'd gone a very peculiar route.
If the first three phone-switches happened at these precise points purely by chance, when he was only thinking about saving the battery, that would be one hell of a coincidence I think. Which means that the fourth switch was also part of the plan. The only way I can think of that it was part of the plan is that it was a mistake, but I think such a mistake is at least plausible. (If he hadn't made a mistake and had actually switched the phone on just past Tarbet, given that the police knew he'd passed through Tyndrum, it might have been more obvious what he was playing at. But as it was, the too-early switch-on muddies the water to the point where the police aren't getting it.)
So as you say, the police aren't especially curious about that detour. They did ask him why he did it, and he said that it was raining. I think the police know that was a flat-out lie.
But even if it had been raining, why on earth is rain a reason to make a 20-mile diversion from a perfectly good road that will take you straight to Edinburgh on to a bloody cart track with road works and delays flagged up, which will take you a good half hour longer? But when I raised this with Stuart Houston he didn't seem particularly curious about it.
I think the initial question from the police is too complicated and doesn't really nail it. "You were on your way home, having chosen (unusually for you) to take the road through Tyndrum. The road to Edinburgh was straight ahead of you. Why did you choose to turn right where there was a sign about roadworks and delays, to take a much poorer road that's 20 miles further than the direct road straight on?"
But basically yes. I spelled it out to Stuar Houston as clearly as I could, but he seems to be too much in love with this alleged sighting at the R&BT to contemplate the possibility that the R&BT is precisely where Gilroy was not, that day.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
Ironically, after all this clever planning (if that's what it was), it wasn't even that he was rumbled by the police due to the Green Welly camera that snookered it, it was that he himself was constrained to abandon the idea of feigning that he'd driven the R&BT route almost immediately.
I think this plan must have been formulated, or most of it, on the Tuesday evening or that night, the day of the murder itself. Maybe even during the Chinese meal. I think he set off on the Wednesday with a definite plan of action. Now consider, on Tuesday evening nobody was making anything of Suzanne's disappearance, as far as he knew. (In reality her parents were screaming blue murder at the police and being listened to, but he had no way of knowing that.) So he was making his plans at a time when it would have been reasonable to assume that the police would not come calling for several days, maybe as much as a week. Young single woman who is a bit of a free spirit doesn't show up to work the day after a bank holiday, how long would it normally take before the police took this seriously?
If the hue and cry hadn't started for a few days it would have been a lot easier to fudge the issue of which route he had taken. People might not immediately have remembered that he'd been away that afternoon. He might not immediately have remembered which route he'd taken, say it took over a week for the police to start questioning him. He might have had a chance to assess how much they knew before admitting to anything. But Suzanne's parents' persistence, pointing out the abandoned pets and the lack of any contact, rang the alarm bells almost immediately, to the point where the office was in an uproar by the Wednesday morning, and the police were expected at any time. But the plan was already made, it was a good one, and he had to do something given that there was a body in the boot of his car. So he implemented the plan he had devised.
But then he was called in for questioning on the Wednesday evening. He didn't even have time to go home. He could hardly "forget" which route he had taken. He had no idea what independent evidence the police might find in that respect. If he said he went his usual route, and then evidence emerged (as it did) that he had actually gone by Tyndrum, the police would immediately leap on him from a great height. He had to give the truthful answer, and he was right to do so. Bye-bye clever plan.
Then, even more ironically, the police decided off their own bat that the disposal site was on the R&BT route anyway, and that although he had concealed his actual route as well as he could, he had actually taken it in order to decoy suspicion away from the R&BT area. Rather than the other way around.
Not that it helped him in the end. His behaviour was so incriminating as it stood that he was convicted despite the absence of a body. But it has massively complicated the search for the body.
I think this plan must have been formulated, or most of it, on the Tuesday evening or that night, the day of the murder itself. Maybe even during the Chinese meal. I think he set off on the Wednesday with a definite plan of action. Now consider, on Tuesday evening nobody was making anything of Suzanne's disappearance, as far as he knew. (In reality her parents were screaming blue murder at the police and being listened to, but he had no way of knowing that.) So he was making his plans at a time when it would have been reasonable to assume that the police would not come calling for several days, maybe as much as a week. Young single woman who is a bit of a free spirit doesn't show up to work the day after a bank holiday, how long would it normally take before the police took this seriously?
If the hue and cry hadn't started for a few days it would have been a lot easier to fudge the issue of which route he had taken. People might not immediately have remembered that he'd been away that afternoon. He might not immediately have remembered which route he'd taken, say it took over a week for the police to start questioning him. He might have had a chance to assess how much they knew before admitting to anything. But Suzanne's parents' persistence, pointing out the abandoned pets and the lack of any contact, rang the alarm bells almost immediately, to the point where the office was in an uproar by the Wednesday morning, and the police were expected at any time. But the plan was already made, it was a good one, and he had to do something given that there was a body in the boot of his car. So he implemented the plan he had devised.
But then he was called in for questioning on the Wednesday evening. He didn't even have time to go home. He could hardly "forget" which route he had taken. He had no idea what independent evidence the police might find in that respect. If he said he went his usual route, and then evidence emerged (as it did) that he had actually gone by Tyndrum, the police would immediately leap on him from a great height. He had to give the truthful answer, and he was right to do so. Bye-bye clever plan.
Then, even more ironically, the police decided off their own bat that the disposal site was on the R&BT route anyway, and that although he had concealed his actual route as well as he could, he had actually taken it in order to decoy suspicion away from the R&BT area. Rather than the other way around.
Not that it helped him in the end. His behaviour was so incriminating as it stood that he was convicted despite the absence of a body. But it has massively complicated the search for the body.
Rolfe
Adult human female
I was thinking, if you twisted my arm, I'd put the probability that she's up by the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot at about 50%, that she's somewhere beyond the Duncan Bàn monument at about 20%, and that she's somewhere near Succoth Lodge at about 20%. Very roughly. That leaves 10% that she's somewhere else. But where could the somewhere else be?
- Glen Strae? A bit too open and too many houses.
- Another track in the Glen Orchy/Glen Lochy triangle? Very difficult to find one with reasonable access.
- Around Cladich/B840? Same objection.
- Glen Shira? No reason to do the fancy misdirection if that's where the disposal site is - it's on the route he's trying to draw attention TO. Also, it was searched.
- Somewhere else between Inveraray and Arrochar? Same objection, and there really isn't time. It's a ridiculous plan.
- Somewhere completely off the wall south of Edinburgh? If he had gone out and got rid of the body on Tuesday night, the bizarre convolutions of the Wednesday were insane, because that's what actually convicted him. He would surely have driven straight there and straight back, maybe with a short stop each way to eat a sandwich, enough to misdirect the search into Argyll but not enough to make him look guilty.
NightOfTheDemon
Critical Thinker
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2016
- Messages
- 325
He probably knew that when he spoke to the police while he was at Lochgilphead school that the police were on to him and were going to make some serious enquiries about his journey on 5th May 2010. He was correct - the police interviewed him in at Corstorphine police station for 11 hours on 6th May 2010.
I now don’t think his plan to switch his phone on when he was south of Tarbet (had it worked) was to tell the police that he physically drove from Inveraray to Tarbet on the A83 on the way to Edinburgh. He was not attempting to misdirect the police by signposting one area in favour of the other - he was attempting to deploy a countermeasure which implied that it was possible that he could have driven from Inveraray to Tarbet on the A83.
When he was at Nyadd he switched his phone off which is an attempted countermeasure as he could have taken the southern route or the northern route from Nyadd or a combination of both. He tells the police he took the northern route to Lochgilphead but the police would have also have to consider he could have taken the southern route or a combination of both the northern and southern routes.
If he had succeeded in switching his phone on when he was south of Tarbet on the way back to Edinburgh then this is another attempted countermeasure. He tells the police he initially took the northern route then went south at Crianlarich on his way back to Edinburgh but the police would also have to consider he could have taken the southern route all the way back to Edinburgh which involves driving past the R&BT as well as considering he could have initially taken the northern route then went south at Crianlarich.
He deployed these countermeasures so the police would not know where to begin searching as the disposal site could be anywhere on the northern or southern routes or anywhere in between. However, he must have considered that the police were going to search for and possibly find CCTV on both the southern and northern route which is why I now think the disposal site is a stones throw from his core route.
The police think he was at the R&BT twice that day - once in the afternoon on a reccy and again in the evening for the disposal as per the first paragraph in this news article. The problem DG had was there was the possibility of being caught by hard evidence, such as business and household CCTV if he diverts anywhere from his core route. This would give conclusive proof of his journey whereas a sighting of a silver car is soft evidence which is subjective and prone to error. However, it would still be important for DG to avoid being seen while going to the disposal site, during the disposal of the body and when leaving the disposal site. This rules out the R&BT and I am not too sure about the Allt Brioghleaan now.
If he went to the R&BT twice that day he could have been captured on CCTV from a business, for example, Loch Fyne Oysters on the A83. It doesn’t look like there was CCTV at Loch Fyne Oysters in 2010 (as it was probably installed after a refurb in 2014) but DG didn’t know that. There is no way he can explain CCTV images of his car passing Loch Fyne Oysters twice to the police. Additionally DG did not know if the CCTV at the petrol station in Inveraray was working or not but if it was and he passes it at the wrong time then questions will be asked. This strengthens the theory that he did not drive anywhere which diverts from his core route.
Therefore it is more likely the disposal site is directly accessible off the A85 between Tyndrum and the junction of the A85 and the A819 and from there to the junction of the A819 and A83 at Inveraray. This area off the A85 has potential - there is no CCTV in the area, cars driving to Tyndrum would not see DG’s car parked there and it is unlikely cars driving from Tyndrum would think twice about a sliver car parked there. He parks in this area which is a stones throw from his core route, he reverses so that the car boot is next to the fence, nobody driving past takes any notice, he waits until there is no traffic passing on the A85, opens the boot and carries the body over the gate where he can dispose of the body without being seen or disturbed, he has got lots of time for the disposal as there is no extra driving, he finishes the disposal, gets back into his car and rejoins the A85.
While driving to this area does not explain the damage to his car or the extra fuel that the police say DG used it is still worth a look. I will look at the pdf again in preparation for another trip in early May.
I now don’t think his plan to switch his phone on when he was south of Tarbet (had it worked) was to tell the police that he physically drove from Inveraray to Tarbet on the A83 on the way to Edinburgh. He was not attempting to misdirect the police by signposting one area in favour of the other - he was attempting to deploy a countermeasure which implied that it was possible that he could have driven from Inveraray to Tarbet on the A83.
When he was at Nyadd he switched his phone off which is an attempted countermeasure as he could have taken the southern route or the northern route from Nyadd or a combination of both. He tells the police he took the northern route to Lochgilphead but the police would have also have to consider he could have taken the southern route or a combination of both the northern and southern routes.
If he had succeeded in switching his phone on when he was south of Tarbet on the way back to Edinburgh then this is another attempted countermeasure. He tells the police he initially took the northern route then went south at Crianlarich on his way back to Edinburgh but the police would also have to consider he could have taken the southern route all the way back to Edinburgh which involves driving past the R&BT as well as considering he could have initially taken the northern route then went south at Crianlarich.
He deployed these countermeasures so the police would not know where to begin searching as the disposal site could be anywhere on the northern or southern routes or anywhere in between. However, he must have considered that the police were going to search for and possibly find CCTV on both the southern and northern route which is why I now think the disposal site is a stones throw from his core route.
The police think he was at the R&BT twice that day - once in the afternoon on a reccy and again in the evening for the disposal as per the first paragraph in this news article. The problem DG had was there was the possibility of being caught by hard evidence, such as business and household CCTV if he diverts anywhere from his core route. This would give conclusive proof of his journey whereas a sighting of a silver car is soft evidence which is subjective and prone to error. However, it would still be important for DG to avoid being seen while going to the disposal site, during the disposal of the body and when leaving the disposal site. This rules out the R&BT and I am not too sure about the Allt Brioghleaan now.
If he went to the R&BT twice that day he could have been captured on CCTV from a business, for example, Loch Fyne Oysters on the A83. It doesn’t look like there was CCTV at Loch Fyne Oysters in 2010 (as it was probably installed after a refurb in 2014) but DG didn’t know that. There is no way he can explain CCTV images of his car passing Loch Fyne Oysters twice to the police. Additionally DG did not know if the CCTV at the petrol station in Inveraray was working or not but if it was and he passes it at the wrong time then questions will be asked. This strengthens the theory that he did not drive anywhere which diverts from his core route.
Therefore it is more likely the disposal site is directly accessible off the A85 between Tyndrum and the junction of the A85 and the A819 and from there to the junction of the A819 and A83 at Inveraray. This area off the A85 has potential - there is no CCTV in the area, cars driving to Tyndrum would not see DG’s car parked there and it is unlikely cars driving from Tyndrum would think twice about a sliver car parked there. He parks in this area which is a stones throw from his core route, he reverses so that the car boot is next to the fence, nobody driving past takes any notice, he waits until there is no traffic passing on the A85, opens the boot and carries the body over the gate where he can dispose of the body without being seen or disturbed, he has got lots of time for the disposal as there is no extra driving, he finishes the disposal, gets back into his car and rejoins the A85.
While driving to this area does not explain the damage to his car or the extra fuel that the police say DG used it is still worth a look. I will look at the pdf again in preparation for another trip in early May.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
Let me know when you're thinking of going, I've got a new bike I'd like to try on that bike track if nothing else. I'm also geared up to camp in the car now, the way you do in your van.
The thing that puts me off the track in your link (which is 3 (and 4) in my document) is that finding it and doing a right turn off that busy road would be very difficult in the middle of the day. Even if he went past it, turned some way further on and came back to make it a left turn, it's problematic. Traffic on the A85 is constant, and slowing down looking at the track entrances and finding the right one would attract attention, to say the least.
Also, I'm sure he was going somewhere specific, somewhere he had been before. That track isn't anywhere he could have had any reason to have been previously. I don't think the upper one (4) went anywhere in 2010 - they were just starting construction. The other one is the old Wade's Road (or rather Caulfeild's Road) which seems to be falling into disuse. It was accessible in 2010 but hey, gate.
(The map has been updated since I wrote that.)
I think if he had been there before and was familiar with how to find the right track and stop in that layby he could have done it, but what reason could there have been for him having been along that track previously?
I don't think he was particularly thinking about private CCTV at the time. Now we're familiar with doorbell cameras and so on producing amazing high-resolution images that appear on TV, back then, I don't think anyone gave these much thought or were even aware of them. I think he imagined he might get right off the radar during the periods when his phone was turned off.
The thing that puts me off the track in your link (which is 3 (and 4) in my document) is that finding it and doing a right turn off that busy road would be very difficult in the middle of the day. Even if he went past it, turned some way further on and came back to make it a left turn, it's problematic. Traffic on the A85 is constant, and slowing down looking at the track entrances and finding the right one would attract attention, to say the least.
Also, I'm sure he was going somewhere specific, somewhere he had been before. That track isn't anywhere he could have had any reason to have been previously. I don't think the upper one (4) went anywhere in 2010 - they were just starting construction. The other one is the old Wade's Road (or rather Caulfeild's Road) which seems to be falling into disuse. It was accessible in 2010 but hey, gate.
(The map has been updated since I wrote that.)
I think if he had been there before and was familiar with how to find the right track and stop in that layby he could have done it, but what reason could there have been for him having been along that track previously?
I don't think he was particularly thinking about private CCTV at the time. Now we're familiar with doorbell cameras and so on producing amazing high-resolution images that appear on TV, back then, I don't think anyone gave these much thought or were even aware of them. I think he imagined he might get right off the radar during the periods when his phone was turned off.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
My counter-argument to your point is that getting off the A85 without causing a massive tail-back is hard. This would be noticeable. Whereas going up the B8074 can be done discreetly. It's a legitimate turn into a public road. There aren't going to be CCTV cameras there, and a silver car driving along that road isn't necessarily going to attract much attention unless it gets into a passing-place pissing-match with you. He would be careful not to do that. Then he could duck into the trees and over that bridge quickly when there was nobody to see. It would take seconds. (If a car did appear as he was about to duck in he could just drive on, turn in the next passing place, and come back at it.) On the A85 there is always someone to see you turning into a forest track, and an ordinary saloon car is going to look a bit incongruous doing that.
Also, as I said, he knew where he was going. He'd been there before. There's a reasonable chance he could have been at the Duncan Bàn monument before, and possibly the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot, and maybe the Succoth tracks. There's nowhere else he'd have had any reason to have been before. (Other than, possible, Glen Strae.)
No matter where he went there would be a chance of his car being noticed off the direct road, because he could only take it where a saloon car could go. If he waited for somewhere with no chance of being seen he'd still be driving around. To my mind the Allt Broighleachan track is better than most. The turn is off a quiet minor road, not a busy trunk road. The track is practical for a saloon car although it's potholed enough to damage suspension. He could be among the trees in seconds. Although there would be a chance of someone seeing his car while he was disposing of the body, that's true of everywhere.
Also, as I said, he knew where he was going. He'd been there before. There's a reasonable chance he could have been at the Duncan Bàn monument before, and possibly the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot, and maybe the Succoth tracks. There's nowhere else he'd have had any reason to have been before. (Other than, possible, Glen Strae.)
No matter where he went there would be a chance of his car being noticed off the direct road, because he could only take it where a saloon car could go. If he waited for somewhere with no chance of being seen he'd still be driving around. To my mind the Allt Broighleachan track is better than most. The turn is off a quiet minor road, not a busy trunk road. The track is practical for a saloon car although it's potholed enough to damage suspension. He could be among the trees in seconds. Although there would be a chance of someone seeing his car while he was disposing of the body, that's true of everywhere.
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NightOfTheDemon
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PDF Page 24 tracks 3 and 4 West of Arinabea
A few years ago (it must have been 2014 or 2015) when I was driving from Tyndrum I managed to drive up to the gate on the forestry track without causing a tailback. I remember looking in my mirrors before attempting the right turn (as you do) and when I saw there was no traffic behind or in front I made the turn. It’s possible DG got lucky and there was no traffic behind him when he arrived there (as I did). I drove up to the gate on the forestry track to see if a car could have driven around the gate (it couldn’t) I then had a cursory look over the gate at the path that leads into the trees but I didn’t do a thorough search. I notice that the trees beyond the gate were felled sometime after September 2015 but the trees were there in 2010.
The only thing that has made me doubt the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot is the risk of him being seen by a hiker. I know the risk is minimal, (possibly a 10% chance of a hiker being on the track at the same time as DG) but if he wanted to make sure he wasn't seen at all then the disposal site;
1 - is a stones throw away from his core route which avoids him being seen when he is driving to and from the disposal site.
2 - leads to a secluded track (if gated he will carry the body over the gate) into a forested area where there's a 0% chance of being seen by a hiker.
While previously driving in the area (mostly to and from the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot) I have noticed cars parked at the entrances to the forest roads. I only notice them because I am purposely looking for a possible disposal site when I am driving past. A driver going about their normal business would probably not take much notice a car parked at a forestry gate and just assume they have probably stopped for a rest, to use their phone or to go for a pee.
A few years ago (it must have been 2014 or 2015) when I was driving from Tyndrum I managed to drive up to the gate on the forestry track without causing a tailback. I remember looking in my mirrors before attempting the right turn (as you do) and when I saw there was no traffic behind or in front I made the turn. It’s possible DG got lucky and there was no traffic behind him when he arrived there (as I did). I drove up to the gate on the forestry track to see if a car could have driven around the gate (it couldn’t) I then had a cursory look over the gate at the path that leads into the trees but I didn’t do a thorough search. I notice that the trees beyond the gate were felled sometime after September 2015 but the trees were there in 2010.
The only thing that has made me doubt the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot is the risk of him being seen by a hiker. I know the risk is minimal, (possibly a 10% chance of a hiker being on the track at the same time as DG) but if he wanted to make sure he wasn't seen at all then the disposal site;
1 - is a stones throw away from his core route which avoids him being seen when he is driving to and from the disposal site.
2 - leads to a secluded track (if gated he will carry the body over the gate) into a forested area where there's a 0% chance of being seen by a hiker.
While previously driving in the area (mostly to and from the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot) I have noticed cars parked at the entrances to the forest roads. I only notice them because I am purposely looking for a possible disposal site when I am driving past. A driver going about their normal business would probably not take much notice a car parked at a forestry gate and just assume they have probably stopped for a rest, to use their phone or to go for a pee.
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NightOfTheDemon
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PDF Page 24 - Number 6. Glenlochy crossing
A few years ago I parked here, crossed the road and walked the track which is exposed at the start but then there's a bend to the right which goes uphill until you are among the trees. DG could have waited in the layby until there was no traffic and attempted to drive on this but the track is not very wide so he would have struggled to drive into the forest. Even if he made it into the forest you cant drive too far as the track leads into a large ditch. There's not enough room to turn a car and if he tried his car would have probably got stuck. If he had somehow managed this then he would probably have been seen on the way back out onto the A85. I had a look around when I was there but didn’t find anything.
I can't see any other possibilities on the A85. I will check the A819 later.
A few years ago I parked here, crossed the road and walked the track which is exposed at the start but then there's a bend to the right which goes uphill until you are among the trees. DG could have waited in the layby until there was no traffic and attempted to drive on this but the track is not very wide so he would have struggled to drive into the forest. Even if he made it into the forest you cant drive too far as the track leads into a large ditch. There's not enough room to turn a car and if he tried his car would have probably got stuck. If he had somehow managed this then he would probably have been seen on the way back out onto the A85. I had a look around when I was there but didn’t find anything.
I can't see any other possibilities on the A85. I will check the A819 later.
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NightOfTheDemon
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This 1.4 mile track off the A819 leads to the to the Duncan Ban Macintyre monument. The Google car drove up to the unpadlocked gate in July 2011. However this area on the left before the unpadlocked gate is interesting. Reverse in to this secluded area and dump the body in amongst the trees.
NightOfTheDemon
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There are other possible tracks on the A819 but they are risky as they lead to properties, are forestry roads or they are tracks where a u-turn is not possible. (he would not want to reverse out of a track onto the main road)
The areas here off the A85 and here off the A819 are good locations for a concealed disposal.
The A85 location is more exposed and it is possible his car would be seen from the A85. A driver could remember seeing a silver car parked at the gate and (after the police made an appeal for witnesses who had spotted a parked silver car in the area on 5th May 2010) they could report this sighting to the police.
However, DG would not be seen from the road at the A819 location and there is a very low risk of anyone driving on to the track and even less risk of a hiker passing.
I think I will visit both of these areas on Thursday 23rd April when the weather is predicted to be good.
If I have time I will also go to the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot for another look.
The areas here off the A85 and here off the A819 are good locations for a concealed disposal.
The A85 location is more exposed and it is possible his car would be seen from the A85. A driver could remember seeing a silver car parked at the gate and (after the police made an appeal for witnesses who had spotted a parked silver car in the area on 5th May 2010) they could report this sighting to the police.
However, DG would not be seen from the road at the A819 location and there is a very low risk of anyone driving on to the track and even less risk of a hiker passing.
I think I will visit both of these areas on Thursday 23rd April when the weather is predicted to be good.
If I have time I will also go to the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot for another look.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
22nd/23rd April were the dates I had also picked out as good for an expedition somewhere. I hadn't settled on a where yet though. On a related note I gather there are now some Tesla chargers at the Green Welly, which makes Tyndrum a more attractive place to be than it was. Other than the total absence of a mobile signal screwing up everything.
It's possible he could have got lucky and managed an unobserved right turn off the A85, but he'd really have had to have been lucky in the middle of the afternoon or early evening. But I return to what I've been saying all along. He knew where he was going. He was heading for somewhere in particular, not just driving along scanning the roadside for likely tracks. If he'd been doing that he would have found somewhere around Strathyre/Glen Ogle or thereabouts. There are numerous possibilites around there that are better than anything on the A85 west of Tyndrum.
By the time he was past Tyndrum he was beginning to run out of road. The northern detour ends at Inveraray. To make the detour worthwhile he had to find somewhere before that, preferably well before that. If he didn't have a specific place in mind he'd have started looking not far past Callendar, and he'd have found something. To have driven past all these enticing road-ends on the A84 and up to Lix Toll makes no sense at all in that context, but he did it. I'm convinced he did it because he was going somewhere in particular.
Turning into dirt tracks leading off the road on spec would have been a hazardous undertaking. You can't tell what's up there from the road-end. You might be about to run straight into a farmyard, or a road so steep and/or rocky the Vectra couldn't climb it, or a bog, or an impassible gate, with nowhere to turn. If that's what he was going to do he would have had to be prepared to try more than one. He wouldn't have passed a whole bunch of decent possibles and hoping he'd get lucky first go out of the box. But the timings show he barely delayed before Tyndrum.
He was going somewhere he'd been before. Somewhere he knew it was possible to drive a distance from the road-end without hitting any of these hazards. And that somewhere was west of Tyndrum. There's no way he would ever have been up one of these tracks north of the A85 before. Your scenario suggests he drove past a fair few better-looking possibilities on the way there, then suddenly turned right on an impulse into a track he had no way of knowing was suitable, or even that he could get out of. I don't buy that. And there are really only four possible turnoffs in the frame that he might have been familiar with from a previous visit.
The fact is that anywhere he had been before, there would be the possibility of someone else coming past by chance. That would be most likely in the Duncan Bàn location I think. Even at Succoth there are inhabited properties further up the tracks. Only the Allt Broighleachan location offers the possibility of getting straight off the road unobserved and almost immediately into a forest area without houses.
I still only rate it at about 50%, but it's a lot more likely than any of its competitors.
It's possible he could have got lucky and managed an unobserved right turn off the A85, but he'd really have had to have been lucky in the middle of the afternoon or early evening. But I return to what I've been saying all along. He knew where he was going. He was heading for somewhere in particular, not just driving along scanning the roadside for likely tracks. If he'd been doing that he would have found somewhere around Strathyre/Glen Ogle or thereabouts. There are numerous possibilites around there that are better than anything on the A85 west of Tyndrum.
By the time he was past Tyndrum he was beginning to run out of road. The northern detour ends at Inveraray. To make the detour worthwhile he had to find somewhere before that, preferably well before that. If he didn't have a specific place in mind he'd have started looking not far past Callendar, and he'd have found something. To have driven past all these enticing road-ends on the A84 and up to Lix Toll makes no sense at all in that context, but he did it. I'm convinced he did it because he was going somewhere in particular.
Turning into dirt tracks leading off the road on spec would have been a hazardous undertaking. You can't tell what's up there from the road-end. You might be about to run straight into a farmyard, or a road so steep and/or rocky the Vectra couldn't climb it, or a bog, or an impassible gate, with nowhere to turn. If that's what he was going to do he would have had to be prepared to try more than one. He wouldn't have passed a whole bunch of decent possibles and hoping he'd get lucky first go out of the box. But the timings show he barely delayed before Tyndrum.
He was going somewhere he'd been before. Somewhere he knew it was possible to drive a distance from the road-end without hitting any of these hazards. And that somewhere was west of Tyndrum. There's no way he would ever have been up one of these tracks north of the A85 before. Your scenario suggests he drove past a fair few better-looking possibilities on the way there, then suddenly turned right on an impulse into a track he had no way of knowing was suitable, or even that he could get out of. I don't buy that. And there are really only four possible turnoffs in the frame that he might have been familiar with from a previous visit.
- Allt Broighleachan
- Succoth
- Duncan Bàn
- Glen Strae
The fact is that anywhere he had been before, there would be the possibility of someone else coming past by chance. That would be most likely in the Duncan Bàn location I think. Even at Succoth there are inhabited properties further up the tracks. Only the Allt Broighleachan location offers the possibility of getting straight off the road unobserved and almost immediately into a forest area without houses.
I still only rate it at about 50%, but it's a lot more likely than any of its competitors.
NightOfTheDemon
Critical Thinker
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DG worked as Scottish Regional Operations Manager for IML from January 2009 until July 2010 (when he was sacked) and in that period IML had contracts with Lochgilphead joint campus, Oban joint campus and primary campus, Hermitage Academy in Helensburgh and Dunoon Grammar.
While working for IML it is likely DG visited the Oban campus and he would get to Oban from Edinburgh via Tyndrum. Therefore, it is likely he has driven on the A85 between Tyndrum and Oban during his time at IML. He may have noticed this sign and put visiting Glen Orchy on his bucket list and then actually visited the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot on one of his days off.
While the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot may have been his priority he may have also studied a map of the A85 on 4th May 2010 and marked off some possible alternative disposal locations with the gate here being one of them. If there was no traffic behind him as he approached the turn he may have decided to have a look. He may have then decided it was an unsuitable spot for the disposal and moved on to the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot but he may have went for it. Therefore, it's worth a look.
He would try to minimise the risk of being seen while completing the disposal and he would try to;
1 - park in an area where nobody would think twice about his car being there
2 - park in area where nobody would interact with him
3 - park in area where nobody would question why he was there
4 - park in area where nobody would disturb him
5 - park in area where there was tree cover for privacy
High risk - Succoth and Glen Strae
Medium risk - Duncan Bàn area and the Allt Broighleachan
Low risk - in the trees beyond the gate on the A85.
While working for IML it is likely DG visited the Oban campus and he would get to Oban from Edinburgh via Tyndrum. Therefore, it is likely he has driven on the A85 between Tyndrum and Oban during his time at IML. He may have noticed this sign and put visiting Glen Orchy on his bucket list and then actually visited the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot on one of his days off.
While the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot may have been his priority he may have also studied a map of the A85 on 4th May 2010 and marked off some possible alternative disposal locations with the gate here being one of them. If there was no traffic behind him as he approached the turn he may have decided to have a look. He may have then decided it was an unsuitable spot for the disposal and moved on to the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot but he may have went for it. Therefore, it's worth a look.
He would try to minimise the risk of being seen while completing the disposal and he would try to;
1 - park in an area where nobody would think twice about his car being there
2 - park in area where nobody would interact with him
3 - park in area where nobody would question why he was there
4 - park in area where nobody would disturb him
5 - park in area where there was tree cover for privacy
High risk - Succoth and Glen Strae
Medium risk - Duncan Bàn area and the Allt Broighleachan
Low risk - in the trees beyond the gate on the A85.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
I think the Duncan Bàn area is higher risk than Succoth. When I've been snooping around there, that's the one that's had the highest concentration of people rubbernecking the sights. And it was wet and dull at the time, and still people were climbing up to read the inscription.
I thought about maps earlier, and it seems to me that if he was doing this from maps he would have gone for somewhere before Tyndrum. Unless he had an OS map of Glen Orchy but didn't have one of Strathyre/Glen Ogle. But then I come to the same conclusion. If I'm studying that map, the quiet nature of the Glen Orchy road stands out in preference to the idea of trying to turn directly on to a dirt track from a busy trunk road. I look at the various possibilities in terms of terrain, presence of habitation and cover (trees), and two tracks on the Glen Orchy road look most promising. I get to the Achnafalnich track first and don't fancy my chances of getting my car in and out of there in one piece so I go on to the Allt Broighleachan, and this looks a lot better.
I don't know. We have to keep an open mind. Any little thing that we don't know about and/or couldn't predict could have nudged him to go somewhere that looks less probable in the cold light of day. The Allt Broighleachan ticks all the boxes, including having a track potholed enough to have totalled his suspension and yet not so bad that he wouldn't have risked it. But that doesn't mean it's where he ended up.
I thought about maps earlier, and it seems to me that if he was doing this from maps he would have gone for somewhere before Tyndrum. Unless he had an OS map of Glen Orchy but didn't have one of Strathyre/Glen Ogle. But then I come to the same conclusion. If I'm studying that map, the quiet nature of the Glen Orchy road stands out in preference to the idea of trying to turn directly on to a dirt track from a busy trunk road. I look at the various possibilities in terms of terrain, presence of habitation and cover (trees), and two tracks on the Glen Orchy road look most promising. I get to the Achnafalnich track first and don't fancy my chances of getting my car in and out of there in one piece so I go on to the Allt Broighleachan, and this looks a lot better.
I don't know. We have to keep an open mind. Any little thing that we don't know about and/or couldn't predict could have nudged him to go somewhere that looks less probable in the cold light of day. The Allt Broighleachan ticks all the boxes, including having a track potholed enough to have totalled his suspension and yet not so bad that he wouldn't have risked it. But that doesn't mean it's where he ended up.
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NightOfTheDemon
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The area around the falls at Eas Urchaidh would have looked very different in 2010. There was no car park so cars would have to park in the passing places or on the grass verges on the B8074 or at the bridge entrance ensuring they were not blocking the bridge. The bridge had yet to be replaced and looked like it was dangerous to cross (on foot and in a vehicle) It looked like it had seen better days and looked like it was falling apart with rust in places. The track had yet to be upgraded and had not been expanded yet.
Therefore, in 2010 there would have been fewer hikers going to the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot than there is nowadays.
This is how the area looked in 2020 (with the car park and the upgraded track)
This is the area in 2015 (no car park or track upgrade)
This is the area in 2006 (no car park or track upgrade)
The Duncan Ban memorial could be accessed via a tarred road in March 2010 so could have been a busy area in May 2010. It would be likely DG would take into account that there was a risk he would be seen by a tourist and although he could drive down one of the single track roads there's a risk of a forestry worker noticing him when he is parked up for the disposal. There's nowhere around there suitable for the privacy he would need for the disposal.
The Succoth road leads to residential housing/farms and although there are not many houses there is still a risk one of the owners/tenants would spot DG if he went there. The wheelie bins would have deterred DG from going there.
I parked at Glen Strae here (where the Vectra estate is) a few years ago and within an hour 3 vehicles and a tractor passed me and the drivers made eye contact.
Revised risk assessment
High risk - Duncan Ban area, Succoth, Glen Strae
Low to Medium risk - The Allt Broighleachan picnic spot
Low risk - in the trees beyond the gate on the A85.
Therefore, in 2010 there would have been fewer hikers going to the Allt Broighleachan picnic spot than there is nowadays.
This is how the area looked in 2020 (with the car park and the upgraded track)
This is the area in 2015 (no car park or track upgrade)
This is the area in 2006 (no car park or track upgrade)
The Duncan Ban memorial could be accessed via a tarred road in March 2010 so could have been a busy area in May 2010. It would be likely DG would take into account that there was a risk he would be seen by a tourist and although he could drive down one of the single track roads there's a risk of a forestry worker noticing him when he is parked up for the disposal. There's nowhere around there suitable for the privacy he would need for the disposal.
The Succoth road leads to residential housing/farms and although there are not many houses there is still a risk one of the owners/tenants would spot DG if he went there. The wheelie bins would have deterred DG from going there.
I parked at Glen Strae here (where the Vectra estate is) a few years ago and within an hour 3 vehicles and a tractor passed me and the drivers made eye contact.
Revised risk assessment
High risk - Duncan Ban area, Succoth, Glen Strae
Low to Medium risk - The Allt Broighleachan picnic spot
Low risk - in the trees beyond the gate on the A85.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
I'm thinking along the same general lines as you. Glen Strae and Succoth don't seem all that promising. We originally set them aside because of the soil type thing, and now we know the soil type wasn't really important we should reconsider, but I think both are unlikely as the roads lead to inhabited properties.
Remember, we have two videos of vehicles turning into the Allt Broighleachan track and over the bridge before the felling was done and the new bridge erected. Looks absolutely ridiculously perfect.
But I keep coming back to prior knowledge. I have a very strong feeling he knew where he was going. Otherwise the missing time would be between Doune and Tyndrum, and we'd be scouring tracks around Strathyre, Balquhidder and Lochearnhead. Which means that the place he was heading for wasn't necessarily the best place in the area, but the one he had been to before and believed was suitable. There are possible reasons for him to have been on the Glen Strae or Duncan Bàn roads, or the Succoth tracks, but no plausible reason for him to have been on that track off the A85. Also, gates.
Remember, we have two videos of vehicles turning into the Allt Broighleachan track and over the bridge before the felling was done and the new bridge erected. Looks absolutely ridiculously perfect.
But I keep coming back to prior knowledge. I have a very strong feeling he knew where he was going. Otherwise the missing time would be between Doune and Tyndrum, and we'd be scouring tracks around Strathyre, Balquhidder and Lochearnhead. Which means that the place he was heading for wasn't necessarily the best place in the area, but the one he had been to before and believed was suitable. There are possible reasons for him to have been on the Glen Strae or Duncan Bàn roads, or the Succoth tracks, but no plausible reason for him to have been on that track off the A85. Also, gates.
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NightOfTheDemon
Critical Thinker
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2016
- Messages
- 325
There was a black car parked here in an area off the A85 in August 2011. Any drivers going to Tyndrum would briefly see the car and quickly forget about it. Park a bit further back and drivers going from Tyndrum would not see the black car.
If the driver of the black car had a body in the boot they could look and listen until there is no traffic and drag the body from the boot into the trees without being seen. It would take them seconds to do this. They are effectively hiding in plain sight.
If the driver of the black car had a body in the boot they could look and listen until there is no traffic and drag the body from the boot into the trees without being seen. It would take them seconds to do this. They are effectively hiding in plain sight.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
Too risky I think, in the middle of the day. There's traffic on that road pretty constantly. Also, if he did that, what was he doing for the rest of the three and a half hours he was off the radar? How did he break three suspension coils?
So far as I know, nobody has actually searched along the side of the A85. But if they had done that in June 2010, they'd have found a body dumped there. He couldn't possibly know that wouldn't happen. More than that, though, I don't think he could afford to dump the body near a layby anyway. It would be far too likely that someone would stumble across it. Or at least I think the possibility would haunt him constantly.
He could have expected to live another 40 or even 50 years, in 2010. Given the circumstances of Suzanne's disappearance and his strange journey, the finding of her body anywhere accessible from that journey at any time would damn him completely. Consider the Louise Tiffney case, where that is exactly what happened. Fifteen years later a cyclist went into the undergrowth for a pee and saw something, possibly her skull. Although her son had been acquitted for lack of evidence, the finding of the body exactly where the police theory of his guilt said it would be would have convicted him if he hadn't committed suicide first. He had tried to bury her but he didn't have much time.
Gilroy wasn't an idiot. He would have known that he'd be looking over his shoulder forever unless he could get Suzanne's body somewhere where it would be very unlikely to be stumbled on by chance. The case of Tony Parsons shows that a body concealed some distance from the road can lie without being found. But even there, might he have been found by chance eventually? It took fifteen years to find Louise, but when she was found, that was that.
He went somewhere off the main road, on a forest track, and he spent some time concealing Suzanne's body effectively against casual discovery. He'd done everything he could to guard against a police search, by trying to get the police to concentrate on the R&BT area (which they conveniently did, despite realising that he had driven the A85), but he had to be as sure as possible that no cyclist answering a call of nature, or similar, was going to trip over her.
In fact the plan where he didn't deviate far from his core route at all and stopped just long enough to dump the body somewhere that vegetation would hopefully conceal it might have been feasible. It would have been impossible to tell from the timings where he'd done this, making a search pretty hopeless. He could have stuck to his story of just going to Lochgilphead according to his appointment at the school and coming back. There would have been nothing to contradict that, and if Suzanne wasn't found then it would have been very difficult to get a conviction. It was the lost time that convicted him, more than anything else.
Why didn't he do this? I believe because he didn't want to risk the body being found by chance close to his route. He was prepared to look hellish suspicious, losing a lot of unexplained time, in order to prevent that as far as possible. She's somewhere where it took him hours to get her well away from casual discovery, somewhere he broke his car getting to.
So far as I know, nobody has actually searched along the side of the A85. But if they had done that in June 2010, they'd have found a body dumped there. He couldn't possibly know that wouldn't happen. More than that, though, I don't think he could afford to dump the body near a layby anyway. It would be far too likely that someone would stumble across it. Or at least I think the possibility would haunt him constantly.
He could have expected to live another 40 or even 50 years, in 2010. Given the circumstances of Suzanne's disappearance and his strange journey, the finding of her body anywhere accessible from that journey at any time would damn him completely. Consider the Louise Tiffney case, where that is exactly what happened. Fifteen years later a cyclist went into the undergrowth for a pee and saw something, possibly her skull. Although her son had been acquitted for lack of evidence, the finding of the body exactly where the police theory of his guilt said it would be would have convicted him if he hadn't committed suicide first. He had tried to bury her but he didn't have much time.
Gilroy wasn't an idiot. He would have known that he'd be looking over his shoulder forever unless he could get Suzanne's body somewhere where it would be very unlikely to be stumbled on by chance. The case of Tony Parsons shows that a body concealed some distance from the road can lie without being found. But even there, might he have been found by chance eventually? It took fifteen years to find Louise, but when she was found, that was that.
He went somewhere off the main road, on a forest track, and he spent some time concealing Suzanne's body effectively against casual discovery. He'd done everything he could to guard against a police search, by trying to get the police to concentrate on the R&BT area (which they conveniently did, despite realising that he had driven the A85), but he had to be as sure as possible that no cyclist answering a call of nature, or similar, was going to trip over her.
In fact the plan where he didn't deviate far from his core route at all and stopped just long enough to dump the body somewhere that vegetation would hopefully conceal it might have been feasible. It would have been impossible to tell from the timings where he'd done this, making a search pretty hopeless. He could have stuck to his story of just going to Lochgilphead according to his appointment at the school and coming back. There would have been nothing to contradict that, and if Suzanne wasn't found then it would have been very difficult to get a conviction. It was the lost time that convicted him, more than anything else.
Why didn't he do this? I believe because he didn't want to risk the body being found by chance close to his route. He was prepared to look hellish suspicious, losing a lot of unexplained time, in order to prevent that as far as possible. She's somewhere where it took him hours to get her well away from casual discovery, somewhere he broke his car getting to.