Current Iranian unrest will lead to regime change.

[Thunder]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090620/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

...or not.

I am very happy to see thousands of brave Iranians give the finger to Mr. Ayatollah and protest against the police and the army. They face mortal danger.

But yet, a lot less people came out this Saturday. Was it because they fear for their lives? Or because they actually respect the words of the immortal Ayatollah of Rock-n-Rollah?

Should Obama be speaking out more in support of the protestors? Or would that just add an unneccessary propaganda tool to the Mullahs?

I recall a tv program that stated that as battle over the wall in Berlin was taking place, Bush I made every attempt not to appear to be on the side of the German protesters, or the Soviets. And Gorbachev later thanked him for this. Perhaps Obama is making the same calculated decision. If so, good for him.

Will this lead to a new revolution? Will the Islamic dictatorship be removed and democracy take hold?

 

[ravdin]

Should Obama be speaking out more in support of the protestors? Or would that just add an unneccessary propaganda tool to the Mullahs?

A lot of people have drawn comparisons to the 1956 uprising in Hungary against communist rule. President Eisenhower and VOA made a lot of noise, leading many Hungarians to believe that the US would intervene on their behalf against the Russians. Naturally, they felt betrayed when that didn't happen.

Unless we're willing to directly intervene (which would not be desired by either side in Iran), there's only so much that we can say. I think that Obama's hitting the right notes, so far- he's called for an end to the crackdown but not in a way that would lead anyone to believe that we have any plans to intervene.

Will this lead to a new revolution? Will the Islamic dictatorship be removed and democracy take hold?

Maybe eventually, but I doubt it will happen any time soon. My most optimistic scenario would be that Khamanei/A'jad will be forced out of power, and a new Supreme Leader/President will be in. The Islamic Republic would remain more or less the same, but a good bit more open (given that the new leaders wouldn't dare to steal another election, for example).

 

[Thunder]

Maybe eventually, but I doubt it will happen any time soon. My most optimistic scenario would be that Khamanei/A'jad will be forced out of power, and a new Supreme Leader/President will be in. The Islamic Republic would remain more or less the same, but a good bit more open (given that the new leaders wouldn't dare to steal another election, for example).

The fall of Khamein would be great..but I dont see it happening.

Ahmedinajad losing power, however, is possible.

anything that brings more freedom, more openness, and more democracy to Iran, is a big step.

brainwashed regimes often require baby-steps. and the brainwashing has been severe.

 

[icerat]

But yet, a lot less people came out this Saturday. Was it because they fear for their lives? Or because they actually respect the words of the immortal Ayatollah of Rock-n-Rollah?

While I think numbers may have been down due to fear, I think it may at least partly have been an illusion. The regime apparently instigated a strategy of blocking entrance roads to the ralling point, so different groups could not come together into the extremely large crowds seen earlier in the week.

Should Obama be speaking out more in support of the protestors? Or would that just add an unneccessary propaganda tool to the Mullahs?

Part of the Mullah's strategy is to try to blame the unrest on the US. Obama speaking out too much would simply enhance the Mullah's position. He's doing the right thing I think.

I recall a tv program that stated that as battle over the wall in Berlin was taking place, Bush I made every attempt not to appear to be on the side of the German protesters, or the Soviets. And Gorbachev later thanked him for this. Perhaps Obama is making the same calculated decision. If so, good for him.

I can't think of anything he says that could help much, so there's only room for harm.

Will this lead to a new revolution? Will the Islamic dictatorship be removed and democracy take hold?

I've been predicted this weeks actions for a couple of years. It may go the way of Tiananmen, where no change was obvious, yet the country has opened greatly in the ensuing years. Even if there's no sudden change in the power structures, it's enough to put fear into the hearts of the true despots, and a mood for change in the hearts of the merely power hungry.

What will change things is if part or all of the army decides to back the protestors. Then we'll see either a complete collapse of the government or a bloody civil war.

 

[Thunder]

What will change things is if part or all of the army decides to back the protestors. Then we'll see either a complete collapse of the government or a bloody civil war.

i dont see that happening. Iran is kinda like the Nazi regime. they have sworn an oath of allegiance to the Ayatollah and they are unlikely to break that oath.

 

[CapelDodger]

Whatever happens the regime will be changed. More in the evolutionary than revolutionary sense, IMO. It's very hard to see where it's going.

Obama is, I think, striking exactly the right line with "the world is bearing witness". This is a matter about and for Iranian society, however hard Khamenei's faction try to make it about the outside world. (The UK the "most evil"? This guy is really living in the deep past.)

Khamenei has got himself between a rock and a hard place and seems at a loss. He's tried exerting his moral authority, but he blew that when he endorsed Ahmedinejad before the election. And it hasn't worked. He's tried a bit of force but that hasn't worked. Too much force will bring the system's legitimacy into question, and may still not work.

He's already lost a great deal of face and only stands to lose more, whatever he does. And he may not be completely in command of the situation anyway.

Interesting times .

 

[CapelDodger]

brainwashed regimes often require baby-steps. and the brainwashing has been severe.

And pretty ineffective apparently.

 

[icerat]

For those who haven't already discovered it and aren't willing to track the multiple message a second #iranelection twitter feed, the best ongoing coverage I've found is at http://www.huffingtonpost.com

I'm truly astounded that this isn't getting more media coverage. A successful Iranian revolution would completely rewrite the current story of the middle east. People are fighting for freedom and literally dying in front of cameras, but because it's not official media channels some outlets are hardly touching the stuff. One swedish news channel tonight did little more than report the Iran government line (probably BS) about 1 dead from a suicide bomber. No mention of the multiple deaths captured on camera phone and posted on the net! No mention of the beatings of women sitting on the sidelines, captured on camera. Why the silence?

 

[CapelDodger]

i dont see that happening. Iran is kinda like the Nazi regime. they have sworn an oath of allegiance to the Ayatollah and they are unlikely to break that oath.

They've done nothing of the sort. That would be the most obscene blasphemy imaginable.

 

[Thunder]

They've done nothing of the sort. That would be the most obscene blasphemy imaginable.

i am gonna look into that.

 

[CapelDodger]

I'm truly astounded that this isn't getting more media coverage.

The BBC's been very good on it, as has CNN. The BBC hs John Simpson on the ground, so we know it's serious .

A successful Iranian revolution would completely rewrite the current story of the middle east.

The last one did.

People are fighting for freedom and literally dying in front of cameras, but because it's not official media channels some outlets are hardly touching the stuff.

Palestinians have been making that complaint for a long time. And there lies the rub for Khamenei and Ahmedinejad, who have made such a big thing of the Palestinian situation. Official Iranian channels are full of it.

If they are seen doing what they condemn Israel for, what legitimacy will they have left? They'll show themselves up as a desperately fading historical accident, just as they paint Israel.

Interesting times. All respect to the Iranians that are putting themselves on the line, just as people put themselves on the line to gain me the society I appreciate so much. I can only hope that I would do as much in their place, but I'm frankly glad I've never been called on to do so.

 

[Thunder]

If they are seen doing what they condemn Israel for, what legitimacy will they have left? They'll show themselves up as a desperately fading historical accident, just as they paint Israel.

Interesting times. All respect to the Iranians that are putting themselves on the line, just as people put themselves on the line to gain me the society I appreciate so much. I can only hope that I would do as much in their place, but I'm frankly glad I've never been called on to do so.

lets attempt to make this an Israel-free thread, shall we?

i think the media has been doing a pretty good job covering this, especially PBS, CNN, and BBC.

 

[CapelDodger]

i am gonna look into that.

When you look into the Iranian constitutional arrangement leave a trail of breadcrumbs so you can find your way out .

It's a system with a lot of give in it. The Supreme Leader might declare that he's shocked - shocked - to discover that he's been misled by self-interested advisors that he innocently trusted. Such as Ahmedinejad and a bunch of conspirators yet to be determined ...

It's axiomatic that you don't attack the Prince to change policy, you attack his evil counsellors. That leaves him a get-out. Khamenei still has that option : who better than an Ayatollah to claim unworldliness as an excuse?

 

[Thunder]

It's axiomatic that you don't attack the Prince to change policy, you attack his evil counsellors. That leaves him a get-out. Khamenei still has that option : who better than an Ayatollah to claim unworldliness as an excuse?

he could also pull a George Kostanza:

"was it wrong for us to kill protesters? Had I been told that when I first applied for the job, I might have been more sensitive to this matter."

 

[Bikewer]

The Friday News Roundup on Diane Rehm had all the international reporters expressing this idea. They were all of the opinion that these events would seriously and permanently damage the existing power structure.

 

[CapelDodger]

lets attempt to make this an Israel-free thread, shall we?

I agree in principle, but in context Israel can't be ignored. Not for what it might be but for what the current Iranian regime have made of it. They've made it an icon of Western imperialism, the overthrow of which is the foundation of their Revolution.

To the average Iranian Palestine is an Arab problem, and they don't really mind Arabs having a bad time. There's some history there ...

i think the media has been doing a pretty good job covering this, especially PBS, CNN, and BBC.

I think so. What's perhaps most telling in a general sense is the amount of material that gets out despite restrictions in an age where mobile phones are video cameras. Gone are the days when cameras were bulky and film had to be smuggled out.

 

[CapelDodger]

The Friday News Roundup on Diane Rehm had all the international reporters expressing this idea. They were all of the opinion that these events would seriously and permanently damage the existing power structure.

I'm sure it will change it. What's remarkable is that it's been brought to a head deliberately by the Khamenei faction. Whether or not the election was fixed, Khamanei's endorsement of Ahmedinejad before the first ballot (let alone before a run-up) set up a deliberate confrontation. It was akin to a British monarch endorsing a political party before an election - whatever happened, things wouldn't remain the same. (It doesn't have to end in beheading though. Sacrificing an evil counsellor often does the trick.)

 

[Roadtoad]

I don't see much chance of regime change. For one thing, with the Mullahs running things, regardless of what the people themselves want, it's going to be the Mullahs' way. They are the ones with the military power, and that's pretty much what's been keeping Iran in some semblance of order over the years, even as the economy's gone to hell.

There's also the matter that no one, especially not the US, wants to get in the middle of this fight. Once you're in, there's literally no way out. They have you by the short hairs.

Just my $.02 worth.

 

[Darth Rotor]

The BBC's been very good on it, as has CNN.

No sir, CNN are cocked up as usual. Christiana Amanpour is on the case, and she is a liar. A professional who is paid for that talent.

Saw way too much of CNN's coverage tonight while at dinner with family, which pissed off Mrs Rotor as I was paying to her mind too much attention to the telly. I had two shots of scotch, neat, to toast whomemever in Teheran decided to show some stones.

Well done, lads.

As to other media organs, no idea who has the access necessary to give the vultures row (all of us who don't live in Iran) a view to what's up with their current fun and games.

DR

 

[CapelDodger]

I don't see much chance of regime change. For one thing, with the Mullahs running things, regardless of what the people themselves want, it's going to be the Mullahs' way. They are the ones with the military power, and that's pretty much what's been keeping Iran in some semblance of order over the years, even as the economy's gone to hell.

The economy hasn't gone to hell, it just isn't doing as well as it might have done. There's no shortage of mobile phones.

The current regime's power isn't based on the military; the Iranian military has a tradition of acting by not acting. It didn't act to prevent the Shah's coup d'etat or the one that overthrew him. The regime's power is based on its legitimacy as defenders of the Revolution - a legitimacy that's worn very thin over time. That's why it keeps harping on about external threats, from the US, Israel and (gawdelpus) the UK.

The post-Revolution, post-war generations aren't very susceptible to that.

There's also the matter that no one, especially not the US, wants to get in the middle of this fight. Once you're in, there's literally no way out. They have you by the short hairs.

Just my $.02 worth.

It's nobody's affair but the Iranians'. That, ultimately, was the point of the Revolution. And it was a valid point : Iran is not our business in principle, and it's no longer our business in practice. They'll sort something out.