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Could Obama have beaten Trump?

Fudbucker said:
Maybe not the same, but given it was Trump, and the leaked tapes, and all the crazy **** he said, I think GOP turnout would have been abysmal. It took someone like Hillary to really get the GOP vote out.
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Which raises the question of how Clinton got into office in the first place, in this scenario.

Maybe Obama runs into the same problem Clinton did: After 8 years, maybe half the country looks at another four of the same, and says "boop to that" in the strongest possible terms.
 
theprestige said:
Which raises the question of how Clinton got into office in the first place, in this scenario.

Maybe Obama runs into the same problem Clinton did: After 8 years, maybe half the country looks at another four of the same, and says "boop to that" in the strongest possible terms.
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Let's just remind ourselves that, with the third party candidates, 54% of voters wanted someone OTHER THAN Trump.
 
MrFliop said:
Lets say that on planet X Hillary Clinton won the 2008 dem primaries instead of Obama. She then goes on to easily beat McCain that year and Romney in 2012. Obama most likely serves in her administration(SOS or some other position) and in 2016 is the Democratic nominee against Trump. Would Obama have won this election if things were that way?
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Way too many unknown variables. How about: if there were no term limits, could Obama win a third term against Trump?
 
Argumemnon said:
Way too many unknown variables. How about: if there were no term limits, could Obama win a third term against Trump?
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If there were no term limits, Bill Clinton would have ridden into office in 2000 on a wave of dot-com euphoria, and presided over both the dot-com crash and 9-11.

Assuming he wasn't impeached (again!), all bets would be off in 2004 and beyond. We could be looking at a third term of Colin Powell right now. Condi Rice could be running for president. Or she could be a world renowned concert pianist. Barack Obama could be running for president. Or for mayor of Chicago. Or he could be arguing civil rights cases before the Supreme Court.

There is at least one thing I feel confident of: in that reality, as in this one, Hillary Clinton will never be president.
 
Argumemnon said:
Way too many unknown variables. How about: if there were no term limits, could Obama win a third term against Trump?
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First I agree there are way too many variables. Clinton instead of Obama in 2008 may have led to a whole different set of circumstances. Certainly Bill Clinton got along with a Republican controlled House better than Obama did. Hilary may have also found the way and that alone may have led to a whole different potential outcomes. Trump may not have even been a candidate if there wasn't the general dissatisfaction with government.

That aside if it was purely Obama in a third term versus Trump then I think Obama would have won. That assumes the dissatisfaction with government notwithstanding that Obama would have been able to once again mobilize his considerable strength amongst minorities and they most probably would have carried him back to the White House.
 
Since I have been wrong in just about everything that I have ever said about Trump becoming the President, I might as well keep on doing so ...

I do think that Obama could have won both the popular vote and the electoral vote over Trump (provided that there was some legitimate way he could have run for a third term).

After all, Clinton did win the popular vote but narrowly lost the electoral vote, so it would not take much to tip the balance the other way.
 
RandyK47 said:
First I agree there are way too many variables. Clinton instead of Obama in 2008 may have led to a whole different set of circumstances. Certainly Bill Clinton got along with a Republican controlled House better than Obama did. Hilary may have also found the way and that alone may have led to a whole different potential outcomes. Trump may not have even been a candidate if there wasn't the general dissatisfaction with government.
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I actually preferred Hillary over Obama in 2008, because I thought that she had more political savvy and experience, and would be more competent at running the country and achieving bipartisan compromises. I was also kind of excited about possibly being a part of electing the first woman POTUS. I wasn't a big fan of her policy positions, but 2008 was a different time.
 
Crossbow said:
Since I have been wrong in just about everything that I have ever said about Trump becoming the President, I might as well keep on doing so ...

I do think that Obama could have won both the popular vote and the electoral vote over Trump (provided that there was some legitimate way he could have run for a third term).

After all, Clinton did win the popular vote but narrowly lost the electoral vote, so it would not take much to tip the balance the other way.
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I don't think you're that wrong. Obama has already said that he could probably have run a better campaign himself, and he's already said that he could probably have helped the DNC run a better campaign for Hillary.
 
theprestige said:
I don't think you're that wrong. Obama has already said that he could probably have run a better campaign himself, and he's already said that he could probably have helped the DNC run a better campaign for Hillary.
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That wouldn't have taken much doing. Amazing that with as an experienced and sophisticated campaign machine as the Clintons had that they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I do take some exception to Obama saying he could have helped the DNC run a better campaign. One of the major complaints with Obama is that he basically ignored the DNC during his Presidency and it was in no condition to support a candidate.

Of course the House Democratic leadership didn't exactly put together a winning strategy either. My district was on the Democrats short list of vulnerable and winnable Republican seats. Their efforts locally were pathetic and the Republican easily held the seat. Pelosi even came here and appeared with their candidate. Her major approach was he was good guy and "our kind of guy who would make a great Representative". Even local Democrats felt that came across as "he'll do what we tell him to do". :jaw-dropp
 
MrFliop said:
Lets say that on planet X Hillary Clinton won the 2008 dem primaries instead of Obama. She then goes on to easily beat McCain that year and Romney in 2012. Obama most likely serves in her administration(SOS or some other position) and in 2016 is the Democratic nominee against Trump. Would Obama have won this election if things were that way?
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In reality, Trump's campaign was based on his racist birther run, so I have to question how he'd become the GOP nominee in such a scenerio to begin with.
 
Ranb said:
I suspect that Clinton was the only Democrat candidate that Trump had a chance of beating. With Sanders as the candidate we would not had as many (maybe?) men who might normally vote Democrat abandon Clinton to vote (or not vote at all) for Trump.
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Sanders would have been immolated by the GOP. Trump would have come off looking like General MacArthur standing up to the Communist Threat to take over the White House and the country.
 
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