Continuation Part Nine: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Kaosium]

And you're serious presumably? Still - if you find this sort of wild and lonely fantasy entertaining who am I to deny your self-indulgent pleasures!?

Part of that is not realizing that's the case in every miscarriage of justice: all those police and prosecutors who worked to put the innocent person in jail were in a sense working to the benefit of the actual perpetrator, though they didn't do it with that purpose in mind of course.

The mistake he makes is in assuming that because the result worked out so well for Rudy that means he was the intended beneficiary. I highly doubt that was the case, it was just the byproduct of the fact they'd already arrested three people for the rape and murder of Meredith Kercher and gotten international coverage based upon their remarkable theory of the crime. They'd have looked like fools and perhaps even faced the criminal charges they deserved for their untaped all-night interrogation session and those arrests if they had to admit they had it all wrong, that it actually was a simple break-in that escalated and was committed by someone else entirely.

Remember, everything they took before Matteini on November 8th turned out to be false evidence, even that against Raffaele and Amanda. At the time they did that they knew that neither Raffaele Sollecito nor Patrick Lumumba were 'Uomo #2' which was the unknown male (Rudy Guede) that had left DNA in so many suspicious locations on and around Meredith's body. They also knew they had no DNA from either of those two or for that matter Amanda Knox in the murder room, but they still spun their ridiculous fantasy. That all looks very suspicious in retrospect, especially considering the lies they (Napoleoni, Ficarra & Zugarini) told in court about not ever considering Patrick in relation to the murder which Comodi's (later) admission they had him wiretapped belied.

However they didn't try to frame them, they just were extremely stupid about it in part because Mignini as prosecutor controlled the investigation. By his own admission he knows little about DNA analysis (he lets Comodi handle the courtwork for the technical subjects) and at the time they thought their other 'evidence' was still good. Most of this is just good old fashioned incompetence that snowballed until the consequences of admitting to the mistake may well have cost them more than their reputation, it might have imperiled their their jobs and freedom.

In the final analysis self-preservation was the motive--not aiding Rudy Guede.

 

[Desert Fox]

In the final analysis self-preservation was the motive--not aiding Rudy Guede.

What happens if six months or a year after being released, Rudy Guede does it again?

 

[Anode]

What happens if six months or a year after being released, Rudy Guede does it again?

We get to shout out a resounding "I told you so"?

Seriously though, that's what I worry about.

 

[kwill]

Let's compare.

Nadeau's actual quote, misleading her readers toward presumption of guilt by chopping off the back half of what AK wrote a few hours after her all night ordeal had ended:

"And I stand by my statements that I made last night about events that could have taken place in my home with Patrik"

Would the PGP find it fair if some writer aiming for exoneration quoted that same statement by chopping off the front end, thus, and pretending that the first half did not exist:

"I want to make very clear that these events seem more unreal to me that what I said before, that I stayed at Raffaele's house."

Poor kid. Those events seemed unreal to you because they weren't even produced by your own imagination; they were planted on you by a bunch of determined police who had not the faintest idea how off the mark they were.

 

[acbytesla]

We get to shout out a resounding "I told you so"?

Seriously though, that's what I worry about.

I don't worry about it. Rudy doesn't live in my neighborhood nor is he likely to. I don't think the US would grant him a visa.

 

[Samson]

Fro Hammerite at PMF just now

At the time I engaged with former JLOL and current PMF member (greatly missed) Fiona offline in an attempt to determine the accuracy of the gastric emptying statistics they were claiming to ascertain an accurate time of death.

To be fair Fiona was far superior then me in the extent of her research but I left the exchange surmising from the JLOL papers produced that statistically dear Meredith had died while still in the company of her friends while watching the movie.

Naturally after this I filed any gastric emptying claims from JLOL under G for Garbage.

This is a complete collapse of logic. What follows from the correct statistical analysis is that the last time Meredith was confirmed to be alive is close to the last time she was actually alive. This coincides with her arrival home, when Rudy Guede was already in the house. We know he was already in the house because when he threw the rock, there was no obstructive presence of anyone to prevent him climbing in the window. Therefore the gastric evidence shows he killed almost immediately.

 

[Anode]

I don't worry about it. Rudy doesn't live in my neighborhood nor is he likely to. I don't think the US would grant him a visa.

I still do. I understand that your comment is referring to your personal safety but I wouldn't want other innocent victims hit by a repeat offense.

 

[Strozzi]

And you're serious presumably? Still - if you find this sort of wild and lonely fantasy entertaining who am I to deny your self-indulgent pleasures!?

Supercalifragelistic, I agree with you. I'll give you another weird scenario that one can fabricate in self-indulgent pleasure as if it were real.

Here it is:
An American female student, her new Italian borfriend, and a local unemployed youth who never met the boyfriend get together and in a group of three restrain and murder a British roommate. Then the American student and perhaps her Italian boyfriend selectively clean up the crime scene by removing all traces of their DNA in the blood-splattered room without leaving any swirls and wipe marks. Then the police select a random knife from the boyfriend's kitchen drawer that is too big to have caused some of the wounds, test it in the police lab and claim positive DNA identification connecting it to the victim - but, get this - it gets more weird - the test sample is consumed in testing and no other independent scientist or other Italian police lab appointed by the court can verify it or find the first police lab's results scientifically valid.

Then, when a shoe model belonging to the unemployed youth turns up and really matches shoeprints in blood, destroying the police claim that the Italian student was present at the crime, the police scientist returns 46 days later to the now-disturbed crime scene, recovers a bra clasp, triumphantly shows it to the camera like it is the crown jewel to save the prosecution's case, takes it back to her lab, tests it with a contaminated machine and, what a surprise, finds a DNA profile that matches three million Italian men, and claims it is the boyfriend's DNA. But that bra clasp also has the DNA of 3 or 4 other males on it, which she supresses as best she can, and the judge claims two of the Y-profiles must belong to female friends - otherwise the court would have to acknowledge contamination at the police-controlled crime scene or in the police forensic lab.

I mean, how weird is that! Nobody who respects science or human behavior would believe such a weird fantasy pushed by police and prosecutors who held an early press conference crowing how at a hostile midnight police interrogation where the American held out for over an hour to police shouts where she insisted she was not there, and only after the arrival of an English-speaking police interpreter who convinced the girl she was there but doesn't remember it because she is traumatized, "she told us what we knew to be correct!".

 

[acbytesla]

I still do. I understand that your comment is referring to your personal safety but I wouldn't want other innocent victims hit by a repeat offense.

I wouldn't either, but this is what the citizens of Italy want. Maybe Rudy could start with Mignini's home.

 

[Strozzi]

What happens if six months or a year after being released, Rudy Guede does it again?

The Perugia legal establishment has two overriding objectives with Rudy:

1. He not commit any more crimes.
2. He not talk to anyone, but especially journalists or writers, about what really happened that night at the cottage or whathaws said in negotiations between Rudy + his lawyer and the police and Mignini.

For the two reasons above, the authorities will do their best to place Rudy in a situation where he is psychologically stable, employed, and watched.

 

[carbonjam72]

just a little while to stay here...

I wouldn't either, but this is what the citizens of Italy want. Maybe Rudy could start with Mignini's home.

Just following up on this possibility. Rudy was reportedly subject to 'fugue states', where he would be sleepwalking and wind up miles from home. He has major mental health issues, no discernible employment skills, plus he's now semi-famous/infamous and he will get close to people who are drawn to playing with fire.

Plus, it's been pretty well established at this point that the Italian police are if anything, incompetent. How on earth are they going to track a case like Rudy, who likely requires round-the-clock case to prevent him from having relapses. Rudy probably does need to be institutionalized 24/7.

I don't think its an 'if', more of a 'when', that poor Rudy winds up in another blood soaked room, trying to save, comfort, and jerk off over a mortally wounded girl, that 'some other guy hurt'.

A better scenario though, would be if Rudy were caught breaking into another second floor house/apt, with a rock through the window. But he'd have to be caught by the occupants, because the police would never allow a report like that to be taken down and put in writing.

So it's kind of a Italian sweepstakes. Are the Italian police more incompetent, than Rudy is nuts? Now that's a horserace.

 

[Strozzi]

I wouldn't either, but this is what the citizens of Italy want. Maybe Rudy could start with Mignini's home.

Mignini could take him in as a foster-son. It should work out well for both. Then when Mr. and Mrs. Mignini go out to dinner or to an anti-Satan rally, Rudy can babysit the Mignini's daughters.

 

[Kaosium]

What happens if six months or a year after being released, Rudy Guede does it again?

Let's hope not, but I personally doubt that will be the case. My suspicion is Rudy Guede was drugged up that night, Thoughtful (of PMF) has a son-in-law who hung around with Rudy and said that Rudy did do the 'hard' drugs sometimes and was something of a 'facilitator' for those who wanted to buy them. Meaning he was more one of those 'people who can find whatever you may need' rather than a producer or major distributor of them.

I do understand that there's some research that suggests those who get away with crimes are more likely to repeat them, but even still repeat murderers are relatively rare as I understand it and Rudy didn't exactly 'get away with it' either, he got several years in prison and is known as being involved in the murder so it's not like no one even knows to suspect him if another dead body shows up in his wake.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

two independent methods of assessing TOD

Fro Hammerite at PMF just now

At the time I engaged with former JLOL and current PMF member (greatly missed) Fiona offline in an attempt to determine the accuracy of the gastric emptying statistics they were claiming to ascertain an accurate time of death.

To be fair Fiona was far superior then me in the extent of her research but I left the exchange surmising from the JLOL papers produced that statistically dear Meredith had died while still in the company of her friends while watching the movie.

Naturally after this I filed any gastric emptying claims from JLOL under G for Garbage.

This is a complete collapse of logic. What follows from the correct statistical analysis is that the last time Meredith was confirmed to be alive is close to the last time she was actually alive. This coincides with her arrival home, when Rudy Guede was already in the house. We know he was already in the house because when he threw the rock, there was no obstructive presence of anyone to prevent him climbing in the window. Therefore the gastric evidence shows he killed almost immediately.

Fiona's grasp of science was always tenuous at best. Someone should ask the Hammerites of the world whether or not the fullness of Meredith's stomach and the emptiness of her duodenum tell us anything at all about time of death (could the TOD be twenty four hours after Meredith's last meal, for example). If they say no, then the conversation is at an impasse. My position is that the stomach/duodenum evidence makes a time of death between 9 and 9:30 more likely than 9:30 to 10, and so forth. The trouble with a TOD later than about 10:15 is that it ignores two independent facts: the digestive system and the cell phone evidence. Each one by itself is strong, but the combination is devastating.

 

[acbytesla]

Let's hope not, but I personally doubt that will be the case. My suspicion is Rudy Guede was drugged up that night, Thoughtful (of PMF) has a son-in-law who hung around with Rudy and said that Rudy did do the 'hard' drugs sometimes and was something of a 'facilitator' for those who wanted to buy them. Meaning he was more one of those 'people who can find whatever you may need' rather than a producer or major distributor of them.

I do understand that there's some research that suggests those who get away with crimes are more likely to repeat them, but even still repeat murderers are relatively rare as I understand it and Rudy didn't exactly 'get away with it' either, he got several years in prison and is known as being involved in the murder so it's not like no one even knows to suspect him if another dead body shows up in his wake.

I probably agree with your assessment the most. I can imagine Rudy actually being a good boy from here on out or possibly someone who will disappear. People will say that he went back to his family in Africa, but more than likely someone will fit him for some concrete shoes. Or maybe the Fargo bit. Do they use wood chippers in Italy?

So what do you think? Will RG be sleeping with the fishes?

 

[acbytesla]

Fiona's grasp of science was always tenuous at best. Someone should ask the Hammerites of the world whether or not the fullness of Meredith's stomach and the emptiness of her duodenum tell us anything at all about time of death (could the TOD be twenty four hours after Meredith's last meal, for example). If they say no, then the conversation is at an impasse. My position is that the stomach/duodenum evidence makes a time of death between 9 and 9:30 more likely than 9:30 to 10, and so forth. The trouble with a TOD later than about 10:15 is that it ignores two independent facts: the digestive system and the cell phone evidence. Each one by itself is strong, but the combination is devastating.

The problem of course is that you think about these things. That you have more faith in science than you do in a junkie and a crazy old woman.

 

[kwill]

To be fair Fiona was far superior then me

To be fair, this is the diction of an inarticulate person who is ill-prepared to engage in reasonable discourse. No wonder s/he hides from "JLOL."

 

[Kaosium]

I probably agree with your assessment the most. I can imagine Rudy actually being a good boy from here on out or possibly someone who will disappear. People will say that he went back to his family in Africa, but more than likely someone will fit him for some concrete shoes. Or maybe the Fargo bit. Do they use wood chippers in Italy?

So what do you think? Will RG be sleeping with the fishes?

I doubt that too, that would attract attention and I do think there's a difference between being a corrupt cop/prosecutor who fudges a little and/or uses every dirty trick in the book or whatever they think they can get away with to get a conviction and a cold-blooded murderer.

Besides, who would believe him at this juncture? He already said when he didn't realize the cops were listening that Amanda had nothing to do with it, plus there were three guys in prison with him who risked more prison time to testify Rudy had told them that Amanda and Raffaele weren't involved.

So what more could he say if his conscience ever did compel him to confess?

 

[acbytesla]

I doubt that too, that would attract attention and I do think there's a difference between being a corrupt cop/prosecutor who fudges a little and/or uses every dirty trick in the book or whatever they think they can get away with to get a conviction and a cold-blooded murderer.

Besides, who would believe him at this juncture? He already said when he didn't realize the cops were listening that Amanda had nothing to do with it, plus there were three guys in prison with him who risked more prison time to testify Rudy had told them that Amanda and Raffaele weren't involved.

So what more could he say if his conscience ever did compel him to confess?

People disappear all the time Kaosium. Now it might attract attention if his body was found floating in the Tiber river. But I'm not even sure that would be noticed with much more than "Rudy was always hanging out with a bad element" Remember when he was hanging out with those two honor students? "

 

[RandyN]

Very clever, but the dodge is that it's just skin or flesh or something that didn't get washed off when all of the blood did. Either that or it's something that got on there during repackaging/transport or Stef's lab put it there. You decide.

You forgot one....It was never there in the first place. 10 picograms and maybe zero picograms. And it is "all" gone in a one off test that was run in spite of quantification results that indicated no safe or further testing was available. In fact quantification indicated ....nothing!