Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[RandyN]

Unfortunately, this is a sign that Nencini actually DID put some thought into this.
Nencini has run out of males to attribute those Y-haplotypes to. Rudy has already been ruled out. His confirmation-biased reasoning is that Raffaele's is there by nefarious reason, and so should ALL male contributions.... except for perhaps Meredith's boyfriend who has an iron clad alibi.

Note he does not dust off the lie that Amanda had a parade of men into her room.... once again, to go with anyone who had not regularly visited the upstairs of the cottage raises the spectre of contamination - the whole point of this section is to "prove that it wasn't contamination.

I guess Nencini could have said one of the Y-stuff was Amanda's. I mean, they made up stuff about Meredith on the kitchen knife, so why not just make up stuff about Amanda on the clasp.

(Nencini is reading this right now - "Perché non ci ho pensato?")

What an odd and incorrect conclusion.

The statistical probability that two Big Foot y haplo women were both in the cottage and both touched the metal hook of a bra clasp is not something calculable without a Cray I suspect.

Nencini is saying he found not one but two missing links...and they were both together and touching bras. Absurd!

Has anyone considered that maybe RS had a women's clothing fetish and perhaps tried on MK bra while visiting the bathroom near Amandas room? I have done that!

Well actually I have not done that but I have knocked drying womens apparell from drying racks or towel racks in bathrooms and then picked them back up and placed them where they were before. (I also have opened medicine cabinet doors...but not looking for drugs or anything really...and I never took anything...didn't even find anything notable...well a suppository implement...and I snickered like a little boy.)

A sniffer....maybe he is a sniffer? But what are the odds of 5 sniffers...two who are also female rarities who carry the y haplotype? Does the tanker firm have a Cray computer? They must.

 

[anglolawyer]

What an odd and incorrect conclusion.

The statistical probability that two Big Foot y haplo women were both in the cottage and both touched the metal hook of a bra clasp is not something calculable without a Cray I suspect.

Nencini is saying he found not one but two missing links...and they were both together and touching bras. Absurd!

Has anyone considered that maybe RS had a women's clothing fetish and perhaps tried on MK bra while visiting the bathroom near Amandas room? I have done that!

Well actually I have not done that but I have knocked drying womens apparell from drying racks or towel racks in bathrooms and then picked them back up and placed them where they were before. (I also have opened medicine cabinet doors...but not looking for drugs or anything really...and I never took anything...didn't even find anything notable...well a suppository implement...and I snickered like a little boy.)

A sniffer....maybe he is a sniffer? But what are the odds of 5 sniffers...two who are also female rarities who carry the y haplotype? Does the tanker firm have a Cray computer? They must.

Overlooking a key point and an obvious one. Just as the positioning of the DNA on the knife tells us precisely how she held it when murdering Meredith, the DNA on the clasp was at just the place where an inexperienced man like Raf would pick away at it while fumbling to take it off someone. Italian science, which has penetrated new areas of DNA analysis, has nothing to learn from the science of other countries.

 

[anglolawyer]

Randy's post about Guede contained the new fact (to me) that Del Prato suspected an employee had loaned Guede a key. It's possible the guy just let him in and locked up, intending to come back in the morning and let him out again. That would explain no key being found on Guede and (I surmise) no employee suspiciously asking for a replacement for his lost key. The guy must have been a bit flaky because he didn't show - or maybe Del Prato was unexpectedly early that morning. If he had shown up as arranged what would he have had to say about Guede cooking pasta and laying it out for the kids (what the ... ) etc?

Question for RandyW - why was Guede still in possession of the laptop (with personalised desktop picture) and phone at the end of his trip if his object was to turn both into money? Maybe he didn't mean to sell them after all. Lawyers are sometimes successful financially. Maybe these were top of the range, desirable items which conferred status. Dan O's wheelhouse.

 

[acbytesla]

What an odd and incorrect conclusion.

The statistical probability that two Big Foot y haplo women were both in the cottage and both touched the metal hook of a bra clasp is not something calculable without a Cray I suspect.

We came up with a figure of 900 million to 1, if it is a totally random female population.

 

[Samson]

We came up with a figure of 900 million to 1, if it is a totally random female population.

Definitely sounds like one Chinese lass and one from the Indian sub continent.

 

[Planigale]

We came up with a figure of 900 million to 1, if it is a totally random female population.

I think you make the frequent error of assuming these are independent and random events. As a genetic disorder the odds are 1:4 children will be effected, thus the two could be 'sisters'. making the odds much lower for a second given the first. Maybe Meredith worked to help transgender people, and had been teaching how to dress as a woman, using this bra as a prop. There is a high likelihood of clustering, you should not regard these as independent events.

We all know this is a silly mistake. It came about because contrary to experience Nencini has to deny the existence of secondary transfer. I assume there is a legal requirement to make a binary decision on evidence and one cannot just allow uncertainty. I do not know what level of certainty Italian law requires for circumstantial evidence.

I think a fair representation is that in isolation the likeliest route of transfer for DNA is direct transfer. I suspect that the smaller the amount of DNA the greater the chance of secondary transfer. Then I think you have to consider the broader scenario. The hook would be an unusual place to touch concealed as it is by the eye. Given the lack of DNA elsewhere on the bra it makes primary transfer less likely. This broader view would make the odds that the DNA originated from direct contact lower, and the likelihood of secondary contact higher. As would the movement around the floor, and handling when collected.

An honest approach would be to say that both direct and secondary transfer were possibilities. In the absence of proof one way or the other it is the responsibility of the judges to decide. Then they could specify the appropriate level of certainty e.g. beyond reasonable doubt, on the balance of probabilities. Instead he appears to opt for certainty, the one level of certainty with no rational basis.

 

[Strozzi]

I think you make the frequent error of assuming these are independent and random events. As a genetic disorder the odds are 1:4 children will be effected, thus the two could be 'sisters'. making the odds much lower for a second given the first.
Two sisters? How about a mother and daughter or a grandmother and her granddaughter? Maybe the bra didn't fit. Reminds me of a double body swap. Where is Mignini now that we need him?

 

[analemma]

Pack of Lies just appeared on Ground Report
Just the worst.Looks like TJMK was copied to Ground Report as an artice.
Who is Ted Thomson?
I cannot repornd as I am at work.

 

[Bill Williams]

Pack of Lies just appeared on Ground Report
Just the worst.Looks like TJMK was copied to Ground Report as an artice.
Who is Ted Thomson?
I cannot repornd as I am at work.

It looks to be recycled Harry Rag stuff.

It's telling because it does not reflect at all any of the new theories of guilt presented by either Crini in 2013, or by Nencini in 2014.

It's the "cut and paste" Harry Rag stuff, really, most of the stuff claimed within long since discounted by even Judge Massei's report in 2010.

It has the timing of the 112 call as per Harry Rag, not as per even Judge Massei. It has Knox with a wound to her neck, "proof" her blood got mixed with Meredith's. Well, even Massei in 2010 said there was no mixed blood, and the police photo from Nov 6 2007 shows it to be a hickey.

 

[Desert Fox]

I think you make the frequent error of assuming these are independent and random events. As a genetic disorder the odds are 1:4 children will be effected, thus the two could be 'sisters'. making the odds much lower for a second given the first. Maybe Meredith worked to help transgender people, and had been teaching how to dress as a woman, using this bra as a prop. There is a high likelihood of clustering, you should not regard these as independent events.

Need to read a bit about Swyer's syndrome. The same with regards to Trans-Genders. Neither is inherited in the way you argue. Most stuff I have read indicates that Swyers is just some weird fluke that there is no heritability.
Transgenders are more likely due to conditions in the womb. Later children are more likely to be transgenders for example. Again, otherwise it does not seem to be inherited either.

 

[Desert Fox]

Question for RandyW - why was Guede still in possession of the laptop (with personalised desktop picture) and phone at the end of his trip if his object was to turn both into money? Maybe he didn't mean to sell them after all. Lawyers are sometimes successful financially. Maybe these were top of the range, desirable items which conferred status. Dan O's wheelhouse.

There is also another possibility. . . .
Older laptops that while capable would be hard to get any real money for.

 

[acbytesla]

I think you make the frequent error of assuming these are independent and random events. As a genetic disorder the odds are 1:4 children will be effected, thus the two could be 'sisters'. making the odds much lower for a second given the first. Maybe Meredith worked to help transgender people, and had been teaching how to dress as a woman, using this bra as a prop. There is a high likelihood of clustering, you should not regard these as independent events.

We all know this is a silly mistake. It came about because contrary to experience Nencini has to deny the existence of secondary transfer. I assume there is a legal requirement to make a binary decision on evidence and one cannot just allow uncertainty. I do not know what level of certainty Italian law requires for circumstantial evidence.

I think a fair representation is that in isolation the likeliest route of transfer for DNA is direct transfer. I suspect that the smaller the amount of DNA the greater the chance of secondary transfer. Then I think you have to consider the broader scenario. The hook would be an unusual place to touch concealed as it is by the eye. Given the lack of DNA elsewhere on the bra it makes primary transfer less likely. This broader view would make the odds that the DNA originated from direct contact lower, and the likelihood of secondary contact higher. As would the movement around the floor, and handling when collected.

An honest approach would be to say that both direct and secondary transfer were possibilities. In the absence of proof one way or the other it is the responsibility of the judges to decide. Then they could specify the appropriate level of certainty e.g. beyond reasonable doubt, on the balance of probabilities. Instead he appears to opt for certainty, the one level of certainty with no rational basis.

I didn't make that mistake and I totally agree. I said "totally random". It is highly unlikely that it would be totally random, clustering does occur. Like minded people cluster. Transgender people find their own kind as we all do.

 

[acbytesla]

There is also another possibility. . . .
Older laptops that while capable would be hard to get any real money for.

This is a point I have tried to make with Grinder. I probably have a half dozen computers in my house. Most of them I would be hard pressed to sell for more than say $50 to $100 and they wouldn't be stolen either. This doesn't make one a "fence".

Go into Best Buy for example and you can see laptops that sell brand new for about $300 and laptops that sell for $1500 and unless you knew the model, you would have a hard time telling which is which. It all depends on the make, model, which CPU, the amount of RAM, the disk capacity, etc. Add in the "used factor" which means you'd be lucky to get 50 percent of the cheapest one and 30 percent of the most expensive unit on something that might be 6 months old. And that is if your customer knew what he was buying. You might be able to "dump" it to a broker but he'll pay you much less as he needs to make his margin.

 

[Desert Fox]

This is a point I have tried to make with Grinder. I probably have a half dozen computers in my house. Most of them I would be hard pressed to sell for more than say $50 to $100 and they wouldn't be stolen either. This doesn't make one a "fence".

Go into Best Buy for example and you can see laptops that sell brand new for about $300 and laptops that sell for $1500 and unless you knew the model, you would have a hard time telling which is which. It all depends on the make, model, which CPU, the amount of RAM, the disk capacity, etc. Add in the "used factor" which means you'd be lucky to get 50 percent of the cheapest one and 30 percent of the most expensive unit on something that might be 6 months old. And that is if your customer knew what he was buying. You might be able to "dump" it to a broker but he'll pay you much less as he needs to make his margin.

Not disagreeing but adding. . . .

I have an older dual core laptop right now. If I was to buy a new basement model dual core at Walmart or Best Buys, my laptop still outperforms them even though it is a few years old. Still, if I was to sell it, I would be lucky to get $50 or so at a computer store and likely even less at a pawn shop. On eBay, might get $100 or $125.

I am hoping to replace it with a quad core at Christmas. I have been looking at eBay and cost range is around the $300 range but getting an equivalent modern new machine is around $1200 to $1500 range.

It is not as if Rudy could have sold his laptops or computers on eBay and a computer store might start asking too many questions.

 

[acbytesla]

Not disagreeing but adding. . . .

I have an older dual core laptop right now. If I was to buy a new basement model dual core at Walmart or Best Buys, my laptop still outperforms them even though it is a few years old. Still, if I was to sell it, I would be lucky to get $50 or so at a computer store and likely even less at a pawn shop. On eBay, might get $100 or $125.

I am hoping to replace it with a quad core at Christmas. I have been looking at eBay and cost range is around the $300 range but getting an equivalent modern new machine is around $1200 to $1500 range.

It is not as if Rudy could have sold his laptops or computers on eBay and a computer store might start asking too many questions.

That's just it. It's all about the processor, the memory and the architecture of the machine. I've sold hundreds of things on E-Bay. If Rudy had half a brain, he could sell on E-Bay. But you have to set it up so you can. You have to have boxes so you can ship things, a bank account, etc. But that kind of thing leaves a trail. Alternatively Rudy could sell on Craigslist.

 

[Desert Fox]

That's just it. It's all about the processor, the memory and the architecture of the machine. I've sold hundreds of things on E-Bay. If Rudy had half a brain, he could sell on E-Bay. But you have to set it up so you can. You have to have boxes so you can ship things, a bank account, etc. But that kind of thing leaves a trail. Alternatively Rudy could sell on Craigslist.

Many people just do not understand the particulars of the computer business.
I have a friend in the Netherlands and he did not know what Pawn Shops are.
As such, I doubt (without evidence to the contrary) that there are Pawn Shops in Italy.

 

[Strozzi]

That's just it. It's all about the processor, the memory and the architecture of the machine. I've sold hundreds of things on E-Bay. If Rudy had half a brain, he could sell on E-Bay. But you have to set it up so you can. You have to have boxes so you can ship things, a bank account, etc. But that kind of thing leaves a trail. Alternatively Rudy could sell on Craigslist.

I think we can discount Craigslist Perugia or Milan being a viable sales channel to sell a hot laptop 6 or 7 years ago. I just looked at Craigslist Perugia and there are zero ads posted there offering computers for sale and just 3 ads up for apartments to rent on Craigslist Perugia. Craigslist Milan is a bit more active - it has 9 ads up selling computers, but their posting dates are over the previous month.

Am I missing something? Craigslist Perugia looks like a nearly-dormant site. What ad volume did it have 6 or 7 years ago?

If Rudy wanted to sell a hot laptop why would he take it to Milan to try to sell unless he had a specific contact there who he knew would buy it? And if he did have a buyer in Milan for a stolen laptop, why didn't he sell it a day or two earlier if he needed cash? Rudy appears to have been flat broke in Milan, with just pocket change on him when arrested.

It should be just as easy for him to offer a stolen laptop for sale to a foreign student in Perugia - a young foreigner who has money, is leaving Italy before long, and whose language skill is limited. He could have said he was getting a newer one - courtesy of Mr. Armani - and you can have my old one for a good price.

I don't see real indications that Rudy was a fence and was fencing stolen items for another thief. I think he stole the items himself, sold what he could, and was stuck with things he couldn't sell - such as several desktop CPU's and a lady's gold watch - because he didn't have a way to sell them. As for the laptop stolen from the lawyer's office, he put his favorite Armani -Rudy screensaver on it. I think he was keeping it for himself, at least for a while.

 

[acbytesla]

Many people just do not understand the particulars of the computer business.
I have a friend in the Netherlands and he did not know what Pawn Shops are.
As such, I doubt (without evidence to the contrary) that there are Pawn Shops in Italy.

Well DF, you would be wrong. Pawn shops originated in Italy and there are Pawn Shops in the Netherlands aw well.

 

[Desert Fox]

I don't see real indications that Rudy was a fence and was fencing stolen items for another thief. I think he stole the items himself, sold what he could, and was stuck with things he couldn't sell - such as several desktop CPU's and a lady's gold watch - because he didn't have a way to sell them. As for the laptop stolen from the lawyer's office, he put his favorite Armani -Rudy screensaver on it. I think he was keeping it for himself, at least for a while.

Unless there is something I missed, your argument is plausible and does not see to contradict what either acbytesla or I wrote. We will likely never know exactly what he was doing however.

 

[acbytesla]

I think we can discount Craigslist Perugia or Milan being a viable sales channel to sell a hot laptop 6 or 7 years ago. I just looked at Craigslist Perugia and there are zero ads posted there offering computers for sale and just 3 ads up for apartments to rent on Craigslist Perugia. Craigslist Milan is a bit more active - it has 9 ads up selling computers, but their posting dates are over the previous month.
Am I missing something? Craigslist Perugia looks like a nearly-dormant site. What ad volume did it have 6 or 7 years ago?

I think you are spot on Strozzi. For whatever reason, CL hasn't caught on that well over there. Frankly, I blame Craig. He has had several opportunities to sell CL. I've been told he was offered a billion dollars at one time. He could also sell ads on the site to pay for an International staff, but..whatever I digress.

If Rudy wanted to sell a hot laptop why would he take it to Milan to try to sell unless he had a specific contact there who he knew would buy it? And if he did have a buyer in Milan for a stolen laptop, why didn't he sell it a day or two earlier if he needed cash? Rudy appears to have been flat broke in Milan, with just pocket change on him when arrested.

It should be just as easy for him to offer a stolen laptop for sale to a foreign student in Perugia - a young foreigner who has money, is leaving Italy before long, and whose language skill is limited. He could have said he was getting a newer one - courtesy of Mr. Armani - and you can have my old one for a good price.

I don't see real indications that Rudy was a fence and was fencing stolen items for another thief. I think he stole the items himself, sold what he could, and was stuck with things he couldn't sell - such as several desktop CPU's and a lady's gold watch - because he didn't have a way to sell them. As for the laptop stolen from the lawyer's office, he put his favorite Armani -Rudy screensaver on it. I think he was keeping it for himself, at least for a while.

I think you're right. A fence to me, is a money man. A guy who buys and sells and has a phone to talk to people. My guess is the same as yours. We're never sure how many computers Rudy has. They aren't exactly top dollar items and they are never going to bring much money. Fence's like all middlemen take their cut and the money reselling laptops probably isn't that good. But I agree that Perugia would be a great place to sell laptops. It's his home turf and I would imagine that the college kids would be good targets for that kind of of thing.