Conservatives move closer still to Labour

[Francesca R]

There doesn’t need to be a generals election until 2010, however there is a belief, almost a superstition, in the Westminster village that calling an election in at the very end of a parliamentary term almost guarantees defeat.

I’m not sure if this is supported by data, and even if I is it could easily be a case of causation going the other way- Governments who are most likely to lose power (and know it) are also most likely to hang on until the very last moment in the hope that their political fortunes will change (see Major 1992-1997).

I have long questioned the "wisdom" of calling an election early and wonder if it is irrational. I have not crunched the data. Is it a uniquely British superstition?

 

[brodski]

I have long questioned the "wisdom" of calling an election early and wonder if it is irrational. I have not crunched the data. Is it a uniquely British superstition?

I have no idea about the political superstitions of other nations (other than the full head of hair/ bald leader alternating pattern in Russian politics), however to some extent it does make sense to call an election early, one of the greatest tactical advantages of the government party is eth ability to choose when to go to the country, if they leave it so late that the opposition can issue a writ of election then they have thrown this advantage away.

 

[DanishDynamite]

Well as I've always maintained Thatcher was not a traditional Tory (indeed if she was she'd hardly have become PM or even a MP in the first place ) and quite often her actions were in contrast with her rhetoric and stated "principles".

Ahhh, Thatcher. The saviour of the UK. The only real statesman, or rather stateswoman, of the UK since Churchill.

It amazes me that a fair number of UK citizens still refuse to recognize this obvious fact. I mean, its been more than 1 generation since her wonderful reign. Trivial puberty rebeliousnous should have finished by now.

 

[DanishDynamite]

Unlike in Scotland (and I believe the USA), there is no set interval between elections for Westminster. We're all assuming the next Westminster general election will be in 2009, but that isn't necessarily so.

Same thing in Denmark. What's your point?

I've heard a very reasonable-sounding theory that Gordon Brown may intend to call a snap general election in the autumn of this year, if the opinion polls suggest that Labour is in a favourable position at that time.

And I heard the opossite. Not really relevant, is it?

I can see the logic. New leader may lead to a "honeymoon" increase in the Labour poll position, and taking advantage of this to gain his own mandate, and at the same time put off the need to go to the country on his actual record until 2011 or 2012, does have its points.

Relevance to the OP? Thanks for your comments.

 

[brodski]

Ahhh, Thatcher. The saviour of the UK. The only real statesman, or rather stateswoman, of the UK since Churchill.

if you think that Churchill was a good peacetime leader, then you are in need of a serious political history lesson.

It amazes me that a fair number of UK citizens still refuse to recognize this obvious fact. I mean, its been more than 1 generation since her wonderful reign. Trivial puberty rebeliousnous should have finished by now.

yes, beceause I'll take your obviously well informed opinion over that of those that actually lived through her administration. A Conservative leader that could force even the middle classes to protest and riot against some of her least well thought out polcies must have been doing something right, right?

 

[brodski]

Same thing in Denmark. What's your point?

well you objected to this thread on the basis that this was irrelevant because an election was so far away, Rolfe pointed out that this may not be true.

And I heard the opossite. Not really relevant, is it?

See above, its not a difficult concept to grasp. Speculation is appropriate for political threads.

Relevance to the OP? Thanks for your comments.

It was providing supporting argument for the contention that an election may not be so far away.
If you can't follow these simple arguments, perhaps this thread is not for you.

 

[Darat]

Ahhh, Thatcher. The saviour of the UK. The only real statesman, or rather stateswoman, of the UK since Churchill.

...snip...

And you base this on what?

 

[DanishDynamite]

if you think that Churchill was a good peacetime leader, then you are in need of a serious political history lesson.

I don't think I said that, did I? I implied that he was a statesman worthy of emulation.

yes, beceause I'll take your obviously well informed opinion over that of those that actually lived through her administration. A Conservative leader that could force even the middle classes to protest and riot against some of her least well thought out polcies must have been doing something right, right?

Right. But not for the populistic reasons you give.

Anyway, this thread is not about Thatcher and since Darat has shown himself to be a very no-nonesense abjucator of what is relevant or not in regard to this thread previously, perhaps we should try to stick to the OP?

 

[DanishDynamite]

well you objected to this thread on the basis that this was irrelevant because an election was so far away, Rolfe pointed out that this may not be true.

Yes, and her "point" is still irrelevant. Hence my question.

See above, its not a difficult concept to grasp. Speculation is appropriate for political threads.

Certainly, but baseless speculation still remains baseless. And hence irrelevant.

It was providing supporting argument for the contention that an election may not be so far away.
If you can't follow these simple arguments, perhaps this thread is not for you.

It was providing nada.

A new election is still 2 years away, unless there is reason to think otherwise.

 

[Darat]

...snip...

A new election is still 2 years away, unless there is reason to think otherwise.

It is nothing more than speculation that a general election is two years away.

 

[DanishDynamite]

And you base this on what?

Economic statistics. Falkland Islands. Amoung others.

Are you saying, my dear Darat, that you will allow us to stray into the territory of Thatcher in this thread? Without summarily sending posts to AAH?

Just asking.

 

[DanishDynamite]

It is nothing more than speculation that a general election is two years away.

It is a fact that general election must occur in two years unless there is some big reason not to. It is pure speculation that it might occur before then.

 

[brodski]

Yes, and her "point" is still irrelevant. Hence my question.

her point directly addressed your concerns over the relevance of this thread.

Certainly, but baseless speculation still remains baseless. And hence irrelevant.
It was providing nada.

What makes you think that your (and my) speculation that the election will be in 2009 is more relevant than Rolfs speculation that the election may be in 2008 or perhaps even late 2007.

A new election is still 2 years away, unless there is reason to think otherwise.

there is as much evidence for a 2009 election as there is for a 2010 or 2008 election.
Marget Hodge obviously expects an early election, and has started her campaign already, other Ministers don't seem to have taken the same position. It's likely that we'll know more after Brown takes over the rest of No. 10 and he's finished his reshuffle.

 

[Darat]

Economic statistics. Falkland Islands. Amoung others.

...snip...

Economics - ERM strike a cord? Falkland islands - as far as I know it was the armed services that fought that!

Are you saying, my dear Darat, that you will allow us to stray into the territory of Thatcher in this thread? Without summarily sending posts to AAH?

Just asking.

See: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27572


Can I just ask before I bother responding to any more of your posts are you drunk?

 

[brodski]

It is a fact that general election must occur in two years unless there is some big reason not to. It is pure speculation that it might occur before then.

No, it's a fact that an election must occur in three years time, historical analysis suggests that it will occur before then. Just how soon before then is speculation.

 

[Darat]

It is a fact that general election must occur in two years unless there is some big reason not to.

What a load of nonsense - I'm sure it has already been mentioned in this thread that we do not have fixed term periods for the House of Commons.

It is pure speculation that it might occur before then.

It is pure speculation it will occur in 2 years.

 

[Darat]

No, it's a fact that an election must occur in three years time, historical analysis suggests that it will occur before then. Just how soon before then is speculation.

We can't even say that with certainty can? Parliaments can be longer than 5 years - the longest in the last 100 years I believe was 10 years.

 

[brodski]

We can't even say that with certainty can? Parliaments can be longer than 5 years - the longest in the last 100 years I believe was 10 years.

Well not absolute certainty, no- but then nothing in the UK constitution is an absolute, we even let Catholics into our royal family these days!

A term can only last for five years, unless there is an act of parliament prolonging the term. Unlike other legislation the Lords has an absolute veto on any such bill.
You may have heard of some exceptional events in 1939 which justified canceling an election in 1940.

 

[DanishDynamite]

her point directly addressed your concerns over the relevance of this thread.

In what sense? I'm perfectly aware that elections can be called before they are required to be called.

What makes you think that your (and my) speculation that the election will be in 2009 is more relevant than Rolfs speculation that the election may be in 2008 or perhaps even late 2007.

The fact that elections must be called no later than 2009. Any speculation that they are called earlier is just that.

there is as much evidence for a 2009 election as there is for a 2010 or 2008 election.

No. See above.

Marget Hodge obviously expects an early election, and has started her campaign already, other Ministers don't seem to have taken the same position. It's likely that we'll know more after Brown takes over the rest of No. 10 and he's finished his reshuffle.

Yes. Hence, stop speculating. QED.

 

[Ian Osborne]

Are you suggesting that a nationalist government taking power in Scotland wasn't interesting?

Only to porridge wogs!