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Common Sense
- Thread starter uk_dave
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chipmunk stew
Philosopher
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Is that like a cut-rate Scientologist?
Horatius
NWO Kitty Wrangler
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Scientician
I hate having to explain a joke....
http://www.anvari.org/fortune/The_Simpsons/21522.html
eeyore1954
Philosopher
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When you are right 28th Kingdom you are right. He obviously meant to attach a bunch of cables and pull down WTC 7. Watching the video made it very clear to me.
eeyore1954
Philosopher
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Is it your contention that this firefighter was told of the great scheme and asked to tell the people to move away because the building was going to be blown up. Wouldn't it have been better to not broadcast the idea that the demolition was being done.
Or is it more likely that he used the term because in his harried day it was the phrase that came to mind when he was warning people about the impending collapse.
I am. I got my credentials from the college right next door to Hollywood Upstairs Medical College, as a matter of fact.
I've got a BS in Scientarianism with a minor in Scientometry.
Magic 8 Ball
Student
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Originally Posted by R.Mackey:
My personal favorite, as one versed in statistics and probability, is the Monty Hall Problem.
Common sense would dictate that the odds are 50/50, since how can the doors know whether or not you changed your mind? Nonetheless, play it by the rules of common sense, and you'll probably go home with a new Pet Goat.
The Monty Hall paradox is nothing more than misdirection. Your odds of picking a car are always one in two, never one in three. Your first guess is free, because Monty will always reveal a wrong door (a door with goats behind it). This guess is irrelevant in determining odds. There are no consequences when you make your first guess (of one in three) and no mistake is ever revealed (because he doesn't reveal you decision). Switching your answer, when Monty asks if you want to switch, is when you actually make a decision. Here you have a one in two chance and there are consequences for making the wrong decision (no car). The reason for this misdirection is to add suspense to the show. I wouldn't consider the Monty Hall problem a paradox, but rather a form of misdirection.
My personal favorite, as one versed in statistics and probability, is the Monty Hall Problem.
Common sense would dictate that the odds are 50/50, since how can the doors know whether or not you changed your mind? Nonetheless, play it by the rules of common sense, and you'll probably go home with a new Pet Goat.
The Monty Hall paradox is nothing more than misdirection. Your odds of picking a car are always one in two, never one in three. Your first guess is free, because Monty will always reveal a wrong door (a door with goats behind it). This guess is irrelevant in determining odds. There are no consequences when you make your first guess (of one in three) and no mistake is ever revealed (because he doesn't reveal you decision). Switching your answer, when Monty asks if you want to switch, is when you actually make a decision. Here you have a one in two chance and there are consequences for making the wrong decision (no car). The reason for this misdirection is to add suspense to the show. I wouldn't consider the Monty Hall problem a paradox, but rather a form of misdirection.
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spielberg i'm not but i thought i'd have a go ;-]
ETA i took the animated gif off here. i think it was slowing down the page loading don't want to incur the wrath of the mightymod
BV
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The Mounty Hall problem is a classic thread killer, and I don't think it is wise to discuss it here. Suffice to say that your analysis is wrong; Monty action in the process are very important and cannot be ignored. There's an excellent wikipedia page on the subject:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
If you still don't agree with the result and really feel the need to discuss the issue further, you can always start a new thread in the puzzle section of this board.
Actually, experimentation will confirm the classic solution to the problem. If you have any programming skill, try writing a simple program to randomly choose a "car" door, randomly choose an "opened" door, and randomly choose a "selected" door. Have the program check to make sure it doesn't open the "car" door, then tally the results from 100 guesses always switching, and 100 always not switching.
If not, just play a mock-up game with a friend and keep score. Do it twenty times or so each way to get a decent number of results.
You will find that approximately 1/3 of the time without switching, and 2/3 of the time with switching you will get a car, which is exactly what is predicted through probability theory.
There are a number of ways of figuring the problem. Probably (haw haw) the simplest way is to draw out a diagram of possible results. As I said, experimentation will confirm the theory.
If Monty is unaware of the location of the car and chooses a door totally at random, then you will indeed have a 50% chance either way. This is because 1/3 of the time, the game will end early when Monty reveals the car door by mistake.
It has nothing to do with misdirection, and everything to do with probability. Remember, it only works out this way if Monty is aware of the contents of the three doors, and offers the switch every time (there are variations where he offers the switch only when you've selected a goat or a car, in which case the probability of winning through switching would be 1 and 0 respectively).
aggle-rithm
Ardent Formulist
Scientastic!
chipmunk stew
Philosopher
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Classic!
This and juryjone's post (among others) make me think we ought to have a non-verbal communication award.
uhm...perhaps the fact that there were X-thousand gallon tanks of Fuel in a building that was ON FIRE might have concerned the man a tad?
ktesibios
Worthless Aging Hippie
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CurtC
Illuminator
Hey, I got it. That's shortly after Troy explains to a kid who expressed horror at the idea of going to a place called a "killing floor":
"Don't let the name throw you, Jimmy. It's not really a floor, it's more of a steel grating that allows material to sluice through so it can be collected and exported."
Magic 8 Ball
Student
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From Wikipedia: "Once the host has opened a door, the car must be behind one of the two remaining doors."
Wouldn't this statement mean that the first pick is irrelevant. Think of a roulette wheel with an electornic sign displaying the last 20 numbers that popped up. Those last numbers are still irrelvant in determinbing the next number the ball lands on. However, I do see your point mathematically. Monty has eliminated a wrong answer, thus increasing your odds if you make a switch. The assumption is that you will pick the wrong door the first time since it is one in three. I'll try your suggested experiment. Thanks.
defaultdotxbe
Drunken Shikigami
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i dont think that definition really fits the portrayal in the show though
seems the scientician doesnt support the hypothesis at all and mr mcclure is just putting words in his mouth, lol
There's a big ol' thread in the puzzle section, so let's not bog this down here, but the gist of it is the opening of the door doesn't give you any new information. There was going to be a goat behind at least one of the non-chosen doors. Essentially, The question is, do you want to stick with the door you choose initially, or switch to BOTH other doors.
The question I want to know, is, how many contestants actually left the studio with a goat...
DavidJames
Penultimate Amazing
and weren't disappointed
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