We're far closer to agreement than not. My suspicion is that eventually China will gain the supremacy to deny US access if wanted but will rarely do so. Both sides will look for (and likely but not certainly find) a path that allows local power transition without formally recognizing it as such until long after it has become a practical reality at which point the world can with relief respond to the academic papers pointing out the obvious with a relieved "Yeah? So?"
China Draws Sabre
- Thread starter The Atheist
- Start date
I thought the Chinese buildings were on artificial islands built on shallow regions?
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
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You're certainly a lot closer to the action than me - and maybe it's a problem with translation as well, nuances are a bit hard to pick up second hand - but I just get the drift that once they build a part of China on the reefs and staff it with 10 or 20,000 troops, they will not stand for seeing a carrier group sail past.
Heck, I'll take that bet.
I'm going to bet that once the fortifications are operational - which could be next week, the speed those guys build - the USA will not sail a convoy through the dotted line without a shot being fired.
Whaddaya say? Bottle of Glenlivet?
Bloody excellent to watch - just like the 5 yos at my kid's school: "If you come over that line..."
Yosemite Sam v Elmer Fudd.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Undoubtedly that's part of it, though no one in this thread has used that phrase beside you, and most have included some version of that claim in their analysis here.
Of course, not everyone with a stake in the game is quite as willing for the US to go home, and China has not demonstrated that they will be any less likely to use superior power as justification as opposed to legitimate claim.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
That, it should be added, is a sentiment shared by the ASEAN countries in varying degrees. Every time some miscreant government does something to draw the Tsk-ing of the west, the ASEAN summit of the period (there's always one taking place or about to take place) addresses the issue with a statement amounting to.... "You don't understand us. We are Southeast Asian. We will settle things the Southeast Asian way." Which, of course, amounts to turning the other way and letting Myanmar or Malaysia or Indonesia do whatever this year's flavor of government was doing to provoke the indignation in the first place.
As to this little adventure, it's going to be a stand-off. China is not going to shoot at any planes and is not going to fire any missiles at anything larger or scarier than a shrimp boat. If you're working for Bubba Gump of HCM City, you may want to be careful. If you're the crew on the "Ronald Reagan", not so much.
I still say it's for home consumption, largely. The Chinese Premier is off to the US again in September. They'll talk some more about rules of engagement to avoid near-misses like last year, but they'll spend most of their time talking about BUSINESS.
@The_Atheist,
Can't make that bet. We'll never hear about it. But do look at a map. The 6th traverses the South China Sea. So do any vessels in the 7th being repositioned from Japan or Guam to the Indian Ocean or Persian Gulf. They're not going to detour. And last I checked, the USN isn't going to give us their voyage plans.
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
There must be some "interesting" discussions going on in China right now. Economically, China is extremely dependent on exporting to the United States. As soon as shots are fired, all bets are off on that front. China, Inc. could be seriously hurting. (As would Wal-Mart.) They've also been buying up lots of US debt -- which could be cancelled.
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
No one else has done what China is doing. For example, sinking fishing boats.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
You might want to Google "Indonesia Blows Up Chinese Fishing Boat". It wasn't in open water, but still....
And there are incidents in Asia and Africa and South America all the time. Some boats have been sunk. It ain't just China. (Not defending China, but there seem to be selective news leaks to the west. And that is facetious because the articles are in the AP and in Singapore and the South China Morning Post.... just that no one in the west wants to hear about them because it's not "Ebil China" doing the blow 'em up real good actions.
The maritime community in Singapore reaction to the Indonesian action? "Heck, it's better than their former policy... boats just got sort "disappeared" and no one knew or knows where they went." A lot of missing smaller craft attributed to piracy in the area is probably Malaysian and Indonesian governments acting on the q.t.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
By the way,.... has anyone on these boards even heard about the "boat people" situation now going on over here? No? I didn't think so. Maybe we could get China to say something so CNN picks up the story.
The US is ignoring it because it's embarrassing to their new "poster girl for Myanmar democracy", and with all the posturing they're making about Thai rights abuses, explaining away attempted genocide in our new "friend" might be, shall we say, "awkward".
The US is ignoring it because it's embarrassing to their new "poster girl for Myanmar democracy", and with all the posturing they're making about Thai rights abuses, explaining away attempted genocide in our new "friend" might be, shall we say, "awkward".
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
Boat people is one thing Australia has succeeded in exporting to other countries such as Thailand. And Australia does not even ask for payment in exchange. In other words instead of going to Australia they are going to Thailand. This is because of Mr Abbott's policies.
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
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Which is exactly what he wanted - make it someone else's problem.
I'd be surprised if many Australians disagreed with him.
None going for China?
I'd be surprised if many Australians disagreed with him.
None going for China?
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
No. The "crisis" is created by a crackdown in Southern Thailand and Northern Malaysia where camps with mass graves were discovered. The Rohingya want out of Myanmar and Bangladesh and believe these ***** and then are held prisoner until their families ransom them and then they're moved to low-paying jobs in Malaysia.
Because of the crackdown, the people traffickers are using the offshore boats as "camps". The Thai government tries to make it sound like this is the Vietnames boat people fleeing oppression and in small craft. It's not, it's flagrant human trafficking and we refuse to do anything about it. There are Thais involved in it, but it's mostly Malaysian run, although in that area, the border is more a formality for the people than anything.
Since February, upwards of 5000 are estimated to be in boats offshore or missine somewhere en route.
I saw an article in the Guardian.... and once again, no one points a finger at Myanmar, where the conditions were created.
Guybrush Threepwood
Trainee Pirate
Do you mean the boats full of Burmese muslims which Thailand and other countries keep pushing back into international waters and leaving to drift? If so then it's got reasonable coverage on UK/Irish news, whereas the Chinese hissy fit over some rocks hasn't.
Guybrush Threepwood
Trainee Pirate
Should have read to the end of the thread before I made the last post
. I'm not sure if I read the same Guardian article, but certainly the UK C4 news was fairly clear that the Burmese/Myanmar government are the initiating baddies.ETA TheJournal.ie article from today pointing the finger fairly directly at Myanmar
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Damien Evans
Up The Irons
I'd expect all of our Australians have, it was front page news here.
Childlike Empress
Banned
I can't claim to have invented it but I'm close to those who did, so no surprise that nobody used it before. Another, fresh term out of these circles for certain geopolitical themes is "Uncle Sam and Auntie Semite".
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Yes, but only because I tend to listen to BBC while driving and sometimes watch Al Jazeera America on television.
Not the phrase I to which I was referring. I've heard Yankistanis or variations for some time now.I can't claim to have invented it but I'm close to those who did, so no surprise that nobody used it before. Another, fresh term out of these circles for certain geopolitical themes is "Uncle Sam and Auntie Semite".
The phrase I was referring to was " 'full spectrum dominance' schemes".
Childlike Empress
Banned
Oh, yeah that's not an invention of critics and should be mentioned everytime Empire's pre$$titutes are whining about any contenders actions.