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China Draws Sabre

Toontown said:
Good for you, Jules. You've found yourself a new home.
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Nevertheless, I made the Case in the post above: No matter what happens, you will declare it a disaster for China.

Toontown...do yourself a favor and rid yourself of the silly ideology.
 
Jules Galen said:
Nevertheless, I made the Case in the post above: No matter what happens, you will declare it a disaster for China.

Toontown...do yourself a favor and rid yourself of the silly ideology.
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Denial is not a "case", and I do not want China to fail. The world is so interconnected that the failure of any major country would have serious repercussions. Especially one with 1.4 billion potential refugees. And counting.

I hope China manages to soldier on with it's bloated, progressively aging, non-innovative population, perhaps with the help of Japanese robots and the $300 billion annual trade surplus with the US. And I hope it doesn't poison the entire monkeyball in the process.
 
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Toontown said:
Denial is not a "case", and I do not want China to fail. The world is so interconnected that the failure of any major country would have serious repercussions. Especially one with 1.4 billion potential refugees. And counting.

I hope China manages to soldier on with it's bloated, progressively aging, non-innovative population, perhaps with the help of Japanese robots and the $300 billion annual trade surplus with the US. And I hope it doesn't poison the entire monkeyball in the process.
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You are not making sense. I mean, somehow this country - China - runs an incredible Trade surplus with the world and manages to become the world's largest holder of Fx Securities (i.e., Foreign Money)....yet they are so stupid.

This just doesn't "Add Up"...so-to-speak.
 
Jules Galen said:
You are not making sense. I mean, somehow this country - China - runs an incredible Trade surplus with the world and manages to become the world's largest holder of Fx Securities (i.e., Foreign Money)....yet they are so stupid.

This just doesn't "Add Up"...so-to-speak.
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So?

Donald Trump is one of the world's richest persons, yet he is so stupid. Perhaps your correlations are trivial.

Are you denying that China has a bloated, aging population? Are you denying that China is not innovative? Are you denying that China is an unrepentant major polluter? Yes or no answers, please. I want to know precisely how I'm not making sense, without the usual tap dancing performance.
 
Toontown said:
So?

Donald Trump is one of the world's richest persons, yet he is so stupid. Perhaps your correlations are trivial.

Are you denying that China has a bloated, aging population? Are you denying that China is not innovative? Are you denying that China is an unrepentant major polluter? Yes or no answers, please. I want to know precisely how I'm not making sense, without the usual tap dancing performance.
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China is a major polluter. But, no...China's population is not old and the country is plenty innovative.

You sound like one of those old Crumudgeons from the 1960's and 1970's who used to say about the same things about Japan.
 
Jules Galen said:
China is a major polluter. But, no...China's population is not old and the country is plenty innovative.
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Your false claims have been highlighted in red. Your sole true statement sports a blue hue.

China's aging population, already the oldest of any country and aging rapidly:
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/...ing-age-population-sees-biggest-ever-decline/

Why China can't innovate:
https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate

In conclusion: Due to it's lack of inventiveness, China will be needing help from more innovative folks to deal with it's looming problems. Therefore, China needs to put it's sabre away and stop pissing people off.
 
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Toontown said:
Your false claims have been highlighted in red. Your sole true statement sports a blue hue.

China's aging population, already the oldest of any country and aging rapidly:
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/...ing-age-population-sees-biggest-ever-decline/

Why China can't innovate:
https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate

In conclusion: Due to it's lack of inventiveness, China will be needing help from more innovative folks to deal with it's looming problems. Therefore, China needs to put it's sabre away and stop pissing people off.
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Baloney....you've been reading too much of the Wall Street Urinal - the same guys responsible for Faux News.

Actually, the median age of China is a bit less than the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

Additionally, China is still growing slightly, so the so-called "1-child Policy" really ain't no policy at all:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

Furthermore, China is doing just fine in the Innovation Department - they can build silly little iPhones with the best of them.
 
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Jules Galen said:
You are not making sense. I mean, somehow this country - China - runs an incredible Trade surplus with the world and manages to become the world's largest holder of Fx Securities (i.e., Foreign Money)....yet they are so stupid.

This just doesn't "Add Up"...so-to-speak.
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The first is not possible without the second (or similar cash flow from China to the US) because balance of payments must sum to zero. The situation is ultimately not sustainable. If China stops buying US paper either their exports declaim or their currency declines relative to the USD. If their currency declines relative to the USD, effectively the amount owed declines as well. What this means is that the Chinese government effectively subsidised US consumers by billions or even trillions of dollars.
 
lomiller said:
The first is not possible without the second (or similar cash flow from China to the US) because balance of payments must sum to zero. The situation is ultimately not sustainable. If China stops buying US paper either their exports declaim or their currency declines relative to the USD. If their currency declines relative to the USD, effectively the amount owed declines as well. What this means is that the Chinese government effectively subsidised US consumers by billions or even trillions of dollars.
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Wrong!

If China stops buying paper, then exports to the US decline AND the value of the Yuan (and all other currencies) rises against the Dollar.
 
lomiller said:
The first is not possible without the second (or similar cash flow from China to the US) because balance of payments must sum to zero. The situation is ultimately not sustainable.
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Any economy that is based on the consumption of non-renewable resources is ultimately not sustainable. Now tell us which countries are not doing that...

If China stops buying US paper either their exports declaim
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China exports are declining.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/exports
Exports from China declined by 4.1 percent year-on-year to USD181.06 billion in May of 2016, following a 1.8 percent drop in the preceding month and market consensus of a 3.6 percent fall. From January to May 2016, exports dropped by 7.3 percent from the same period a year earlier.
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As Chinese become more affluent internal consumption will grow, and the need to export will decline. It's already happening...

China has shifted to domestic consumption-driven economy, growth to average at 6.5%
A top Chinese economic advisor has rejected foreign criticism about the way China has handled the economic slowdown in the country and said it was [on] course to grow at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent between 2015 and 2020.

“We have shifted from an external demand-driven economy to a domestic demand-driven economy. Domestic consumption is now the most important driver of our development,” former Vice Premier of China H.E. Zeng Peiyan said.
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Toontown said:
So?

Donald Trump is one of the world's richest persons, yet he is so stupid. Perhaps your correlations are trivial.

Are you denying that China has a bloated, aging population? Are you denying that China is not innovative? Are you denying that China is an unrepentant major polluter? Yes or no answers, please. I want to know precisely how I'm not making sense, without the usual tap dancing performance.
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I agree with your points except for one:Trump is NOT one of the world richest persons in terms of actual wealth. His personal wealth is around 4 billion, and though a lot of money,it's not top echelon in terms of wealth. It's more like he is one of the most famous rich people in the world. Agree that he is stupid,though.
 
theprestige said:
Where do you get this nonsense?
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I believe the US will go heads-up with China only after the situation in Vietnam - so critical to the world's freedom (gagh!) - is resolved and Vietnam is liberated from Communism. In other words...never.

China ain't no Vietnam, and if Americans thought the Vietnam War sucked they are really gonna' start to scream if they are asked to take on China - which just won't happen. So, China is going to take back all its terrirtorial claims....and no one is going to do anything about it.

Deal.
 
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