willing to bet on that?
(yours was posted while i was writing my reply to your earlier one)
isn't there some friendly JREF scenario for wagers?
(yours was posted while i was writing my reply to your earlier one)
isn't there some friendly JREF scenario for wagers?
Hawk one
Emperor of the Internet
It seems a difficult thing to do for sure. But not anywhere near impossible. All one needs to do is to practise -a lot-, just like you have to practise a lot plenty of things that require quick reaction time and a good share of dexterity. I think this would be on the level of a very fast-handed guitarist (or similar. Like ukulele player Jake Shimabukuro, to give one excample. Whenever I listen to him making his stuff, I sometimes feel that what he's doing is impossible).
And since a potentially large amount of money is involved... Put it like this, whenever large money is involved, you are bound to have people making a -serious- effort at this. That's almost like a natural law.
casino owners are not always overly concerned about fine points of law.
but i though you were only interested in the physics...???
whitefork
None of the above
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Well, you could read the book. After all Richard Dawkins called it “an astonishing and fascinating tale of scientific heroism.”
You wouldn't be calling "appeal to authority" on that one?
in fact they may have; i do not see how, esp with the hardware they were using, but it was before my time so i was wrongly projecting how one would probably do it today...
Thomas Bass, the author, is a science writer; he has written a lot of (other) interesting stuff.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Bass
I always thought they took a couple images of the wheel with the ball in motion. From the differences in the position of the wheel they could quickly compute it's speed of rotation.(opposite direction of ball) Do the same for the ball, compute angular velocity and adjust for rolling resistance to roughly determine total ball travel. This process could be done anytime after the ball is set in motion. Precise initiation time would not be necessary, since the images would also show the number the ball is curently above and adjustments easily computed. Not necessarily easy, but doable. The computer could simply tell you play the 19 numbers left from 17.(double zero wheel)
They'd also need to have the layout memorized in order to quickly place the bets. Might want some help placing them. Then just avoid getting too greedy.
Predicting which half of the wheel the ball would end up in, they would get back 36 bets for every 19 placed. An 89.5% profit.
Successfully hiding the camera where it has a good view would be the tricky part.
They'd also need to have the layout memorized in order to quickly place the bets. Might want some help placing them. Then just avoid getting too greedy.
Predicting which half of the wheel the ball would end up in, they would get back 36 bets for every 19 placed. An 89.5% profit.
Successfully hiding the camera where it has a good view would be the tricky part.
D'oh! Yes of course, excuse the typo, please.
Dave_46
Graduate Poster
I'm working from memory, as it is a few years since I read the book. The "computers" were built into clothing, using 8 bit processors. They had to calibrate the wheel each time they played, as the weight of the ball, and temperature and humidity affected the roll of the ball. The wheel was sighted, and at a recognisable point on the wheel passed a reference point a timing signal was taken. Then a similar timing signal was taken for the ball. Which 45 degree sector the ball ended in was recorded. After this calibration the computers could be used to predict which 45 degree sector the ball would finish in.
The equipment was giving OK results (not perfect) which gave them an edge, when it worked properly. Of course they had to make it unobtrusive, and it was flakey. As others have noted there were some burns experienced. According to the book the laws were changed to outlaw such devices.
Dave
The equipment was giving OK results (not perfect) which gave them an edge, when it worked properly. Of course they had to make it unobtrusive, and it was flakey. As others have noted there were some burns experienced. According to the book the laws were changed to outlaw such devices.
Dave
Robin
Penultimate Amazing
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The one I am referring to did not use cameras, the technology would not have existed to process the images. They relied on clicking a switch every time the ball passed a certain point. I am pretty sure you would need more circuits of the ball than you get to gather all the necessary information, even if you calibrate some things before hand. You need the velocity of the ball, the angular velocity of the turntable and the position of the ball relative to the turntable.
Admiral
Commander of the Fleet of Justice
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While I haven't read these books (which sound fascinating), has anyone read "Bringing Down the House"? That's about counting cards in blackjack, which is a different ball game simply because the game has a memory- if you know that there've been a lot of queens earlier in the six card shuffle, it's more likely they'll show up, and so on...
The trouble is that if you win too much at a game, particularly if you have the slightest suspicious look about you- you're quietly counting to yourself, you're tapping your foot incessantly, you have a hearing aid or keep looking down at a screen or whatever- it's what casino employees are trained to notice.
So, in my opinion, cheating at Roulette is an interesting academic puzzle that seems completely unreasonable to perform in a casino. It would be hard enough in lab conditions with bulky camera equipment and laser timers- trying to do it with concealed gadgets while trying to act natural in a crowded room with surveillance cameras and 400-pound casino employees watching you? Ridiculous.
The trouble is that if you win too much at a game, particularly if you have the slightest suspicious look about you- you're quietly counting to yourself, you're tapping your foot incessantly, you have a hearing aid or keep looking down at a screen or whatever- it's what casino employees are trained to notice.
So, in my opinion, cheating at Roulette is an interesting academic puzzle that seems completely unreasonable to perform in a casino. It would be hard enough in lab conditions with bulky camera equipment and laser timers- trying to do it with concealed gadgets while trying to act natural in a crowded room with surveillance cameras and 400-pound casino employees watching you? Ridiculous.
First.. We casino employees on the front lines (dealers, pitbosses, shift managers) arent trained to notice that junk. If anyone is watching for it, its through the camera systems.
The front lines are trained to notice things like bet capping (adding extra chips to a wager AFTER the outcome is known)
Second, I do not believe the doubters understand how little it takes to tilt the odds away from the houses favor in roulette. The house edge on most roulette wagers is based simply on payouts that would otherwise be fair if there were 1 (or 2) fewer slots (often the green slots, as is the case with betting red/back, odd/even, or high/low)
..simply eliminating 1 (or 2) slots from consideration would make the game fair, eliminating more would give the player an edge.
The front lines are trained to notice things like bet capping (adding extra chips to a wager AFTER the outcome is known)
Second, I do not believe the doubters understand how little it takes to tilt the odds away from the houses favor in roulette. The house edge on most roulette wagers is based simply on payouts that would otherwise be fair if there were 1 (or 2) fewer slots (often the green slots, as is the case with betting red/back, odd/even, or high/low)
..simply eliminating 1 (or 2) slots from consideration would make the game fair, eliminating more would give the player an edge.
Robin
Penultimate Amazing
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I would have to do some calculations before getting back to you. At a rough estimate I would say you would have to have the correct quarter more than 30% of the time, probably 50%.
And you would have to only bet where the ball was going to land towards the centre of one of your predefined quadrants.
And it would have to be able to collect data and get a response in time to place 8 or 9 bets.
I guess I could memorize 4 groups of 9 numbers but I am not sure how quickly one could get 9 chips down on a table in under a second, which seems like the most you would have.
Robin
Penultimate Amazing
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I understand the odds. I still question whether it would be possible to do what they claim to have done.
How long does it take from the time the ball is set in motion until the betting is stopped?
You don't seem to understand the problem then. A single bet is enough.
8 or 9 bets on one spin
vs
1 bet on each of 8 or 9 spins
= the same edge.
An edge is an edge is an edge. The utility of having an edge doesnt disappear just because you arent a casino.
You should take a step back and think about games of chance for a moment because you are operating under an incorrect assumption.
Now i'm not saying that these specific guys DID infact do what they claim.. but it is certainly possible.
Admiral
Commander of the Fleet of Justice
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Rockoon- it's fantastic to have a casino employee to discuss this with. However, our issue isn't with chance- we're well aware that even gaining a slight advantage would pay off well over time (in fact, you don't want too much of an advantage, or chances are you'd be noticed.)
We're trying to figure out whether there is a fast enough way to input information into a computer that you got from observing the spinning roullette wheel, getting back the result from the computer, and placing the bets- and doing this all surreptitiously.
Sounds like a challenge.
We're trying to figure out whether there is a fast enough way to input information into a computer that you got from observing the spinning roullette wheel, getting back the result from the computer, and placing the bets- and doing this all surreptitiously.
Sounds like a challenge.
My total sum knowledge of casino management is based on the TV series ‘Las Vagas’ 
(the modern bay watch).
Notwithstanding, I was under the impression that casino managers welcomed players who had a ‘system’, (I don’t include black jack as there are ways to improve your chances), as far as roulette is concerned.
Do I understand that technology has reversed this i.e. system players are no longer welcome?
(the modern bay watch).Notwithstanding, I was under the impression that casino managers welcomed players who had a ‘system’, (I don’t include black jack as there are ways to improve your chances), as far as roulette is concerned.
Do I understand that technology has reversed this i.e. system players are no longer welcome?
andyandy
anthropomorphic ape
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My total sum knowledge of casino management is based on the TV series ‘Las Vagas’
Notwithstanding, I was under the impression that casino managers welcomed players who had a ‘system’, (I don’t include black jack as there are ways to improve your chances), as far as roulette is concerned.
Do I understand that technology has reversed this i.e. system players are no longer welcome?
the only system that i know for roulette is based on the gambler's fallacy....
i've had heated conversations with a friend of a friend who swears by his system....
wait till the roulette wheel has had more than 6 reds in a row,
bet on black
if that loses then double up your bet on black
if that loses then double up again.....
that's the kinda system that the casinos love
case sensitive
Critical Thinker
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Those Black Jack cardcounters are considered cheaters right? Even though they only use their brains. So you are allowed to bet your money, to use your brain betting your money. But not use your full potential while playing. Is this the case anywhere else in life? "I am sorry Sir, you are thinking to much now and that means I can't fool you. Stop thinking or leave my store."
What is the crime? Illegal use of brain?
What is the crime? Illegal use of brain?
Robin
Penultimate Amazing
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OK, fair enough, I was going by the strategy someone earlier said they used.
OK,you have a ball spinning one direction, a turntable spinning the other, you have to collect sufficient information to judge the angular velocity of the turntable, the speed of the ball and the position of the ball relative to the turntable, you have to get back a calculation as to the quadrant and then place a bet all in 3-4 seconds. Using 70's 8 bit technology mind you.
Now this information on a fast moving ball has to be accurate enough not only to predict the point at which the ball will slow sufficiently to fall into the pockets talking into account the bounce when it does.
Now I only said it seemed impossible, which is why I started this thread. It still seems impossible. It would seem pretty hard even using new technology.
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