Belz...
Fiend God
No, not really.
The scenarios you describe might apply to traders. I'm an investor.
If I invest in Coke today, sure, they might introduce a new soda tomorrow that is a big hit and share prices rise 30% over the next 6 months. It could also be a huge dud, and share prices might drop 30% over the next 6 months. But over a period of 20-30 years, it doesn't matter. They'll have plenty of hits and plenty of bombs, and as long as the hits out number the bombs, the share price should reflect that over the long term. Same for the drug company.
Unless they fold in 8 years. You can't predict that.