carlson test and debunking randi

Tricky said:
Fine with me. DrK? do you still have that information or do you need other subjects?
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I'm here, and I think I have enough subjects -- but, the more, the merrier. Specifically,
I have four complete subjects and one subject with incomplete data. I will post the
full birthdate data in about three hours, to allow any last-minute entrants to join. If
you are a participant, check the posting to make sure that I gave the right information;
if I mistype the 18th as the 81st, let me know.

At that point, Idunno will prepare as many profiles as he chooses (hopefully all of them, but if I get 200 appliicants in the next twenty minutes, I will understand if he opts not to do 200+ readings) and send them via PM to me. At that point, I will scrub, scramble, and forward his PM to the subjects, also via PM.

Subjects will indicate which of the profiles is theres. Once I have all five responses, I will post the full data and we can look at it.

Oh, by the way, I calculate the chance of all five being right as one in 3125. So if Idunno can actually pull it off, I strongly recommend applying for the JREF challenge, and will be happy to sign an affidavit to that effect if necessary.

ETA: Idunno, what's the time-table? How long will it take you to prepare 5 readings?
 
Even if idunno only does four horoscopes, the chances of all four people choosing their own reading are 1 in 256, which are already hard odds to beat (Randi was happy to do tests on British television where the odds to beat were 1 in 120, see for instance this thread).

If idunno does five horosopes, the odds of at least four people choosing the right one are 21 in 3125, or about 1 in 149.
 
Michael C said:
Even if idunno only does four horoscopes, the chances of all four people choosing their own reading are 1 in 256, which are already hard odds to beat

If idunno does five horosopes, the odds of at least four people choosing the right one are 21 in 3125, or about 1 in 149.
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Yup. But Randi historically has set the cutoff for preliminary testing at 1 in 1000, which
would require 5 of 5. It's easier to be confident of one's ability to do something a second time, right? Of course, I'll still happily sign an affidavit saying that I helped run this test even if the results are 1 in N... but idunno may not be as interested in publicizing that prospective result.
 
drkitten said:
I will post the full birthdate data in about three hours, to allow any last-minute entrants to join. If you are a participant, check the posting to make sure that I gave the right information; if I mistype the 18th as the 81st, let me know.
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As promised, here is the data.

All participants have been anonymized; all pseudonyms are male, although the participants themselves may not be. We got a nice mixture of countries, too, which should be fun.

  • Solomon -- 7th June 1956, Montpelier (France) 17:00
  • Hercules -- 9th October 1972, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (UK) 10:00
  • Atlas -- 20th December 1981, Montreal (Canada) 15:20
  • Zeus -- 30th March 1952, London (UK) 14:45
  • Achilles -- 15th October 1956, Elmhurst, Illinois (USA) 08:52
  • Mercury -- 4th June 1974, Hayti, Missouri (USA) 10:00

The odds of all six correctly identifying their own profile by chance alone, for the record, is one in 46656.
 
drkitten said:
I'm here, and I think I have enough subjects -- but, the more, the merrier. Specifically,
I have four complete subjects and one subject with incomplete data. I will post the
full birthdate data in about three hours, to allow any last-minute entrants to join. If
you are a participant, check the posting to make sure that I gave the right information;
if I mistype the 18th as the 81st, let me know.

At that point, Idunno will prepare as many profiles as he chooses (hopefully all of them, but if I get 200 appliicants in the next twenty minutes, I will understand if he opts not to do 200+ readings) and send them via PM to me. At that point, I will scrub, scramble, and forward his PM to the subjects, also via PM.

Subjects will indicate which of the profiles is theres. Once I have all five responses, I will post the full data and we can look at it.

Oh, by the way, I calculate the chance of all five being right as one in 3125. So if Idunno can actually pull it off, I strongly recommend applying for the JREF challenge, and will be happy to sign an affidavit to that effect if necessary.

ETA: Idunno, what's the time-table? How long will it take you to prepare 5 readings?
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Good, good. Idunno is going to submit the readings to you via PM, right? We don't want them discussed at large until the test is over. Be sure to edit out any information that might give clues as to the dates, like planetary positions and such.

ETA: I really should learn to read before I post.
 
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drkitten said:
  • Solomon -- 7th June 1956, Montpelier (France) 17:00
  • Hercules -- 9th October 1972, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (UK) 10:00
  • Atlas -- 20th December 1981, Montreal (Canada) 15:20
  • Zeus -- 30th March 1952, London (UK) 14:45
  • Achilles -- 15th October 1956, Elmhurst, Illinois (USA) 08:52
  • Mercury -- 4th June 1974, Hayti, Missouri (USA) 10:00
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LOL. Too bad you couldn't fit Zoroaster in there.;)
 
Updated to reflect one final participant. Had I known there would have been seven from the start, you would all have been named after cardinal sins,.... so be grateful to this last participant.

  • Solomon -- 7th June 1956, Montpelier (France) 17:00
  • Hercules -- 9th October 1972, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (UK) 10:00
  • Atlas -- 20th December 1981, Montreal (Canada) 15:20
  • Zeus -- 30th March 1952, London (UK) 14:45
  • Achilles -- 15th October 1956, Elmhurst, Illinois (USA) 08:52
  • Mercury -- 4th June 1974, Hayti, Missouri (USA) 10:00
  • Billy Batson -- 18th May 1966, Honolulu, HI (USA) 20:17
 
If you need to edit any of the profiles, you should get idunno's approval of the edited profiles before forwarding them to the subjects.

Also, after all the subjects have selected the profile they believe is theirs, would it be possible to publish the profiles so we can vote on them before the correct answers are made public?
 
drkitten said:
As promised, here is the data.

All participants have been anonymized; all pseudonyms are male, although the participants themselves may not be. We got a nice mixture of countries, too, which should be fun.
  • Solomon -- 7th June 1956, Montpelier (France) 17:00
  • Hercules -- 9th October 1972, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (UK) 10:00
  • Atlas -- 20th December 1981, Montreal (Canada) 15:20
  • Zeus -- 30th March 1952, London (UK) 14:45
  • Achilles -- 15th October 1956, Elmhurst, Illinois (USA) 08:52
  • Mercury -- 4th June 1974, Hayti, Missouri (USA) 10:00
The odds of all six correctly identifying their own profile by chance alone, for the record, is one in 46656.
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Great!! I`m in the south,and have less access to internet so it will take some time as im only allowed 1 hour in the Library`s computers. Tell me more details if you have.What is PM? Private mail? To whom do i send the charts?

thanks:)
 
idunno said:
Great!! I`m in the south,and have less access to internet so it will take some time as im only allowed 1 hour in the Library`s computers. Tell me more details if you have.What is PM? Private mail? To whom do i send the charts?

thanks:)
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A PM is a private message. Click on the name in the top left-hand corner of a post and you'll get a menu, where one of the options is "send a private message to ....". The charts should be sent to drkitten.
 
Michael C said:
A PM is a private message. Click on the name in the top left-hand corner of a post and you'll get a menu, where one of the options is "send a private message to ....". The charts should be sent to drkitten.
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ok for chinese astrology i need gender if you dont mind, and whether there was DST in Missouri when Mercury was born.If possible give me also the sun time for Hayti,Missouri.Longitude often affects Sun time. For example England uses London time but someone born in Penzance,Cornwall at 10.00, the sun time will be 3 degrees of longitude west or 12 minutes, which gives 09.48:)
 
idunno said:
ok for chinese astrology i need gender if you dont mind, and whether there was DST in Missouri when Mercury was born.If possible give me also the sun time for Hayti,Missouri.Longitude often affects Sun time. For example England uses London time but someone born in Penzance,Cornwall at 10.00, the sun time will be 3 degrees of longitude west or 12 minutes, which gives 09.48:)
Click to expand...

Adding gender is possible under the condition that the finished charts give no information concerning gender.
 
idunno said:
Great!! I`m in the south,and have less access to internet so it will take some time as im only allowed 1 hour in the Library`s computers. Tell me more details if you have.What is PM? Private mail? To whom do i send the charts?

thanks:)
Click to expand...
I believe you send the charts to Dr. Kitten to make sure they don't contain "hints" and he submits them privately to each of the subjects. Nobody but you, DrKitten and the subjects should see the charts until the test is complete.
 
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