carlson test and debunking randi

[Hokulele]

I predict idunno will not accept a test of this nature.

I did edit my comment. I had based this prediction off of your responses to ChristineR, who was in the process of developing a protocol. I hadn't seen your response to Tricky when I posted it originally.

---really? Then why not test year signs? Now it`s you who sound like a Wow

By "year signs", are you now discussing Chinese astrology, or did you mean something else?


And cool! I sound like a "Wow"!

 

[Tricky]

ok you make the protocol if you wish

Okay, here's the basic outline. It is not the way Randi would test you, but it is more applicable for online things.

1. We create a questionnaire that asks about basic personality traits. There are a number of these available for various ways of categorizing people, but if you wish to develop your own or with input from us, that would be fine.
2. We submit the questionnaire to a selected group of members. The primary factor in selection of the people should be that they know little or nothing about astrology. (The reason for this is to avoid confirmation bias. People who know a reasonable amount about astrology will recognize what traits go with what sign.) Another factor should be that the people who fill out the questionnaire should not have their birthday in their "personal profile".
3. The people answering the questionnaire give their birth date to a third party who will have no contact with you. This third party will put this information into a date-stamped file to be revealed only after the test is complete.
4. You evaluate the questionnaires and tell send your guess on their sun sign to the third party. We'll need a significant sample, probably a hundred or more, in order to get a statistically valid sample. (Perhaps somebody with a good statistical background could help us out on this.)
5. After a certain to-be-determined length of time, the submission of questionnaires is cut off and the results are tabulated.
6. Given the ability for sensory leakage and the probably small sample size, your percentage of correct guesses should be three times higher than random, or 3 out of twelve, equaling 25%.

As I say, this is a first pass. I welcome additions and corrections.

 

[Tricky]

---really? Then why not test year signs? Now it`s you who sound like a Wow

Based on my personal evaluation of Hokulele, I assure you that she is a Wow.

 

[Tricky]

I am going to disagree here for a bit. Precision is at least as important celestially as it is terrestially. For example, when doing elevation calculations, how many decimal places do you carry on your convergence factor? Same thing applies to locating celestial objects. Certain objects such as the moon, sun, and even planets such as Mercury and Venus really hustle across the background constellations. There is a new sign rising approximately every two hours. It takes less than a second for a planet such as Mars to switch from retrograde to proper motion.

I would say it would depend on what it is being used for. Since there are only twelve sun signs and each is approximately thirty days in length, the timing accuracy is obviously not that important. Similarly, there are only 12 rising signs, and so as long as you get your location into the right ballpark, you should be able to get a person's personality traits fairly accurately even if you are off by as much as five degrees of latitude or longitude.

Now for launching a space probe or drilling an oil well, the degree of accuracy required is much different.

 

[Locknar]

lets get practical.do you want to test?

I'm guessing you don't like hard questions like "what do you think astrology does", since you stopped responding to me.

Umm....before you can test, you need to define what you are testing; seems pretty basic to me.

 

[Hokulele]

I would say it would depend on what it is being used for. Since there are only twelve sun signs and each is approximately thirty days in length, the timing accuracy is obviously not that important. Similarly, there are only 12 rising signs, and so as long as you get your location into the right ballpark, you should be able to get a person's personality traits fairly accurately even if you are off by as much as five degrees of latitude or longitude.

Now for launching a space probe or drilling an oil well, the degree of accuracy required is much different.

This would be true for classical Western sign-based astrology, if all you were interested in are gross personality traits. However, astrologers do not get paid just to tell someone they are an extrovert.

 

[idunno]

Okay, here's the basic outline. It is not the way Randi would test you, but it is more applicable for online things.

1. We create a questionnaire that asks about basic personality traits. There are a number of these available for various ways of categorizing people, but if you wish to develop your own or with input from us, that would be fine.
2. We submit the questionnaire to a selected group of members. The primary factor in selection of the people should be that they know little or nothing about astrology. (The reason for this is to avoid confirmation bias. People who know a reasonable amount about astrology will recognize what traits go with what sign.) Another factor should be that the people who fill out the questionnaire should not have their birthday in their "personal profile".
3. The people answering the questionnaire give their birth date to a third party who will have no contact with you. This third party will put this information into a date-stamped file to be revealed only after the test is complete.
4. You evaluate the questionnaires and tell send your guess on their sun sign to the third party. We'll need a significant sample, probably a hundred or more, in order to get a statistically valid sample. (Perhaps somebody with a good statistical background could help us out on this.)
5. After a certain to-be-determined length of time, the submission of questionnaires is cut off and the results are tabulated.
6. Given the ability for sensory leakage and the probably small sample size, your percentage of correct guesses should be three times higher than random, or 3 out of twelve, equaling 25%.

As I say, this is a first pass. I welcome additions and corrections.

ok but now im off to bed.good nite...

 

[Tricky]

This would be true for classical Western sign-based astrology, if all you were interested in are gross personality traits. However, astrologers do not get paid just to tell someone they are an extrovert.

All we're trying to show here is that it works better than random guessing.

As to my protocol, there is also something to be said for the method of people submitting (through a third party) their birth date/location information and having them pick their own reading out of the group that Idunno evaluates. This doesn't require as large of a sample, but it is a lot more work for Idunno.

 

[JayT]

The Solution That Will Never Happen

i think youll find these interesting

it seems the skeptics are afraid

paulohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwQTS6yuQhU&mode=related&search=

Astrologer James Young issues a direct challenge to critics of his videos [such as UncleFeedle and shanedk] to prove they have sufficient knowledge of the subject to be taken seriously. Have they? So far only 2 have applied for the challenge, lovasip backed out, the other failed. And the rest? Every tactic in the book has been used to avoid the challenge. They say [now], as feedlemania deadens their brains, that it doesn't matter HOW Astrology works, only IF it works. Nice try, but it is just another evasion. Care to try my challenge UncleFeedle? Thought not!

Feedle says that no Astrologer has entered his 'debate'. Is it any wonder with such biased minds, and comments from Feedle like 'Astrology is a crock of ****'.

Shanedk had to pay a lawyer to get his libellous videos back on and falsely accuses me of lying - but then most of what he says isn't based on fact. Legal victory does not mean moral victory. (more) (less)

http://www.firststop-astrology.com/Astrofacts/Fakes.htm

http://www.firststop-astrology.com/Astrofacts/BWC.htm

http://www.firststop-astrology.com/YouTube/Video1.htm

see also his misgivings about randis test in the same link

I wish that the government would design an industry standard Astrology Qualifications Examination required to obtain a license to practice astrology.

It would require that whatever they claim to be able to do, MUST be validated by controlled testing procedures, so that the 'products' they sell are proven to meet a certain standard.

The astrology industry would collapse tomorrow if held to ANY standards of proven reliability.

Even barbers require a license based on validated testing of their professional competence. Why shouldn't astrologers?

Astrologers' disclaimers such as, "For Entertainment Purposes Only", are meaningless and invisible to the eyes of believers.

I suggest regulation because the life advice they often give their victims (excuse me - customers, although the distinction escapes me) crosses the line into the proper legal domain of a medical practitioner, psychologist or psychiatrist. People often regulate their entire lives and make critical life decisions according to astrologer advice because they truly believe in it despite any disclaimers. This is too dangerous a level of influence to entrust to anyone who has not proven their consistent professional competence to the public at large.

Anyone whose profession has that kind of influence over people's lives, should be held accountable to professional standards that can be put to the test, just like any other public business that can do harm to its consumers if certain standards are not met.

Even if every church in the world had the disclaimer, "For Entertainment Purposes Only", posted conspicuously on their front doors, could anyone seriously think for one moment that it would deter any true believers?

Imagine that disclaimer posted on the front door of a psychologist's office. Would it effect how much you trusted his or her advice?

Who is protected by such disclaimers? Certainly not the consuming public.

 

[Complexity]

Little Hitler Dude - Why would anyone with the intelligence of a toenail read or watch anything about astrology?

I haven't spent any time investigating leprechauns either.

Silly twit.

 

[Tricky]

Little Hitler Dude - Why would anyone with the intelligence of a toenail read or watch anything about astrology?

I'm not who you were talking to, but I'll say for myself that it would be really cool if astrology worked. It would help you understand people and show you insights into yourself. In fact, as a college student I read a lot about astrology and learned about all the basic sun signs and rising signs.* I was more naive than I am now, but I would like to think I had at a minimum, the intelligence of a toenail. Wishful thinking is common even among non-stupid people.

Want to know what made me start doubting?

I haven't spent any time investigating leprechauns either.

Still, a lot of fairly intelligent people play the lottery hoping for that elusive pot of gold.


*ETA: Also, it got me laid once.

 

[arthwollipot]

-----In your case the sun is in a positive extrovert sign the ascendant in a negative introvert sign.
what im looking for is people who have both in a negative or both in a positive sign. Since im not a real expert i can only test clear cut charts.
You seem to be more like Pisces. See Pisces ascendant in James Young site in «know ledge»

Well, for a start the last time I checked I had Capricorn rising, but I may have made a mistake. Admittedly it was a long time ago.

But is that all? Are you now admitting that you are not a very good astrologer because you can't give me an accurate horoscope? Why then should you be considered an authority on astrology at all?

 

[arthwollipot]

I should issue a correction. When I said "I've never been called an extrovert" I should have added "except by astrologers". It seems to be the one consistent error.

 

[idunno]

Well, for a start the last time I checked I had Capricorn rising, but I may have made a mistake. Admittedly it was a long time ago.

But is that all? Are you now admitting that you are not a very good astrologer because you can't give me an accurate horoscope? Why then should you be considered an authority on astrology at all?

this is where it gets tricky.According to some astrologers but not all, some ~sagitarians are very extrovert, others the more introvert philosofical type, like winter fire. they can either be physical travellers or mental travellers

 

[idunno]

Little Hitler Dude - Why would anyone with the intelligence of a toenail read or watch anything about astrology?

I haven't spent any time investigating leprechauns either.

Silly twit.

ever heard of dark humour?

 

[CFLarsen]

--- thats my opinion

No, no, no. When you point to horoscopes, you point to verifiable evidence. That means your claim can be tested.

----i dont make any claims

Oh, yes you do: When you say that astrology works, that using asteroids and nodes are "crap", and that 5% of astrologers "really know their business", you make claims.

---maybe

Indeed. So, why choose the paranormal explanation, when you have a natural one?

---not all are vague

Name one, and give examples of precise horoscopes cast by this astrologer.

---ok

So, go ahead: Please explain how we know which astrologers are among the 5% that "really know their business".

---experience. there are lots of sites where they clçaim to do your chart for a fee but its all done by software

None of which is verifiable. That won't cut it.

----i said i used european tropical not sideral. That has nothing to do with bazi and zi wei, which are chinese which normally agree with each other but show different aspects of peoples life.Zi wei shows travel but bazi doesnt

You said that only European Tropical astrology was right - all others were wrong.

 

[Michael C]

What many people don't realise is that astrology has been seriously tested, not just by those nasty skeptical scientists, but also by astrologers. Hundreds of tests have been done.

The best source that I have found for serious information about astrology is http://www.astrology-and-science.com/. This site was created by Rudolf Smit, who used to be a successful professional astrologer. It's not a particularly slick or pretty site, just a mine of information. You could start by reading the "Grand summary of entire website", from which I quote:

"The findings have been clear and consistent whether obtained by astrologers or by scientists -- astrology has not contributed to human knowledge, it has failed hundreds of tests, it has no acceptable mechanism other than hidden persuaders, and users do not usefully agree on basics such as which zodiac to use or even on what a given birth chart indicates. Today, for the first time in twenty centuries, we can say with some certainty that no, the heavens do not reflect our destiny."

This site is the nearest thing I have found to an impartial view of astrology. The authors have studied the subject seriously - many of them are, or were astrologers themselves - and arguments both for and against astrology are presented.

Anyone thinking of creating a test of astrology would do well to peruse this site first.

 

[idunno]

What many people don't realise is that astrology has been seriously tested, not just by those nasty skeptical scientists, but also by astrologers. Hundreds of tests have been done.

The best source that I have found for serious information about astrology is http://www.astrology-and-science.com/. This site was created by Rudolf Smit, who used to be a successful professional astrologer. It's not a particularly slick or pretty site, just a mine of information. You could start by reading the "Grand summary of entire website", from which I quote:

"The findings have been clear and consistent whether obtained by astrologers or by scientists -- astrology has not contributed to human knowledge, it has failed hundreds of tests, it has no acceptable mechanism other than hidden persuaders, and users do not usefully agree on basics such as which zodiac to use or even on what a given birth chart indicates. Today, for the first time in twenty centuries, we can say with some certainty that no, the heavens do not reflect our destiny."

This site is the nearest thing I have found to an impartial view of astrology. The authors have studied the subject seriously - many of them are, or were astrologers themselves - and arguments both for and against astrology are presented.

Anyone thinking of creating a test of astrology would do well to peruse this site first.

It was after reading that site in 2001 that i began to have migivings regarding astrology.
Still some of the tests appear a bit silly. Testing extrobert-introvert via sun signs, or professions, testing psychological astrlogy which is a 20th century invention to make astrology look more acceptable.
I contact Rudolf regularly and he sent me one of the tests to be posted to astrologers in a forum. of the 5 matches 2 astrologers got 3 right which is good. It means they only failed one.
at the start of 20th century dutch astrologer leo Knegt got not only 5 but all 10 right. Unfortunately we dont know much abouit him so the test has been repeated in the off chance that someone will get at least 5 hits. But so far only 3. I can post that test if you want.

Furthermore i think chinese systems are easier to test, as they dont look so vague but we need some meta analysis

 

[idunno]

Originally Posted by idunno
----i said i used european tropical not sideral. That has nothing to do with bazi and zi wei, which are chinese which normally agree with each other but show different aspects of peoples life.Zi wei shows travel but bazi doesnt

You said that only European Tropical astrology was right - all others were wrong.

--men you need glasses or are a half wit. the answer is above your comment
when i ruled germany guys like you would be packed to Auschwitz and gassed with bull`s farts while believers followed with me.
good old days

 

[Hellkat9940]

Originally Posted by idunno
--men you need glasses or are a half wit. the answer is above your comment
when i ruled germany guys like you would be packed to Auschwitz and gassed with bull`s farts while believers followed with me.
good old days

Astrologer Hitler? Has the JREF forum become a haven for rejected comic book villains?