Canada may exit Kyoto pact to save $$$$$

Several decades.

Based on what exactly? What emissions scenario are you basing your "several" decades on? And could you please define "several"? And could you please answer the other question. Do you agree that we could switch thorium on over night and if so why is it going to take China 20 years to get anything close to viable technology?
 
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Based on what exactly? What emissions scenario are you basing your "several" decades on? And could you please define "several"? And could you please answer the other question. Do you agree that we could switch thorium on over night and if so why is it going to take China 20 years to get anything close to viable technology?

Answer my questions first.

I know as little about thorium reactors as you do and agree that it requires further investigation. In the meantime, it's your choice: fossil fuel exploitation (per China) or nuclear power (per France)?
 
We have heaps of coal and uranium here. I reckon we burn and export as much as we need until we get to a point where we can go online with nuclear. And I'm quite serious, Australia's emissions are nothing in comparison to elsewhere.
 
I put this question to all the cheerleaders in the peanut-galleries:

A. How long do you think we have to act on emissions reduction?

We are acting on emissions reductions. The question doesn't make sense.

B. If thorium is a magic bullet that can justify leaving Kyoto by bringing down our emissions within the above time frame, then why is even China estimating it will take them twenty years to develop viable LFR's?

Two questions. Not complicated.

There is no "above time frame" so this question doesn't make sense either.

I don't think thorium is a magic bullet that negates the Kyoto initiative. I do think these self imposed "deadlines" are nonsense because it's the market and technology that set the deadlines, not politicians at conferences. Talk is cheap, going carbon neutral isn't.
 
We are acting on emissions reductions. The question doesn't make sense.



There is no "above time frame" so this question doesn't make sense either.

I don't think thorium is a magic bullet that negates the Kyoto initiative. I do think these self imposed "deadlines" are nonsense because it's the market and technology that set the deadlines, not politicians at conferences. Talk is cheap, going carbon neutral isn't.

You're touching on the real issue which is the basic fact that Kyoto is, was, and always will be unworkable. You don't reduce GHG emissions by some kind of elaborate shell game where Canada, for example, finances directly China's exploitation of the Alberta oil sands. You also don't reduce GHG emissions by throwing a considerable amount of government money at things that have proven to be ineffective (qv Sword's generous accounting of Denmark vs France).

The facts are that none of us here (correct me if I'm wrong) are experts on thorium energy extraction. We don't have to be experts on nuclear technology in general to understand that it works and has an enviable safety record when procedures are followed.

I feel that some of those opposed to Canada dropping out of Kyoto (although never mentioning Russia) are angry about science, technology, medicine, progress, and everything that makes the "developed" world the envy of the planet. All Kyoto does, really, is subsidise inefficient systems at the expense of the global GHG budget. No responsible CEO would allow such a thing to happen in his or her multinational concern because it is the budget that matters.

It will always be Canada, the US, and other "developed" nations that forge ahead in responsible energy management through a partnership of regulation and private investment enterprise. That model must be adopted by any kind of neo-Kyoto and needs to include energy corporations on an equal footing with government representatives.
 
So you agree that we could abandon all emission reduction schemes and get a thorium industry online - globally -

Why would he agree to that? No one here has said it.

But... if we want to make that argument, as Dr. Barry Brook, holder of the Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Adelaide, points out, France went from 5% to 80% nuclear in just 20 years.



Yes, it's a youtube vid.
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Edited for rule 12.

And yes, LFTRs can actually be built faster and cheaper than the current generation of reactors.

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One reason is they don't require pressure vessels. Current generation reactors operate at high pressure (typically between 70 to 150 atmospheres) in order to maximize the kinetic energy carried by the superheated water streams to the turbine blades. Because of these intense pressures involved, systems have to be built to contain them both in normal operation and in case of an accident (this is why reactors are commonly covered by giant 6 foot thick reinforced concrete domes). Reactor pressure vessels can't be made in separate pieces and then welded together. They have to be forged as a single unit. There is currently only one place the world that has the capability to perform large scale forging; JSW Steel Works in Japan. Everyone in the world who is looking to build a nuclear reactor is currently on a waiting list for a slot in JSW's schedule (unless they are building CANDUs, but that's another technical issue that I don't think you're ready for). This is a major stumbling block to any large scale reactor construction program.

LFTRs on the other hand, are designed from the outset to operate at much higher temperatures. Eliminating the need for high pressure systems to transmit kinetic energy to the turbine blades.

LFTRs are also self regulating. There is no need to worry about the risk of meltdown since the fuel is designed to operate in a molten state from the outset. Since the fuel is in a liquid mass, it is also self regulating. Rises in temperature cause the mass to expand, stretching out the space between atoms in the mix, reducing reactivity, which in turn results in a drop in temperature. This eliminates the need for several of the safety and control systems seen in conventional reactors.

Because the fuel is in a liquid mass, this eliminates two of the problems seen in solid fueled reactors. First is fuel assembly.

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Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Tricky


This is a life-sized model of a CANDU fuel bundle from Pickering Nuclear Generating Station. The rods are a zirconium alloy and are filled with small pellets of uranium oxide and then bundled and welded together. And they are expensive. You can contact Cameco and ask to acquire one without the uranium pellets, but they will charge you the same as for a "live" fuel bundle as the uranium pellets are the cheapest component (Cameco will give you one for free if you can provide your credentials and ask as a representative of a school or teaching institution). Obviously, a liquid fuel mass does a way with the need for a solid assembly.

Solid fuel assemblies also cause problems in that they trap poisons. As uranium fissions, daughter products that absorb neutrons accumulate inside the fuel rods degrading the efficiency of the reaction. In a liquid fuel mass, daughter products bubble to the top and can be siphoned off reducing the need to shut down and replace the reactors fuel assemblies (something that's always on is more economically viable, remember).

As you can see (and would have seen much earlier if you weren't insisting on behaving this way) LFTRs have a number of inherent advantages that will make them cheaper and faster to build and maintain.
 
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Regarding consistency, I liked this post: :rolleyes:

The reason nuclear in general hasn't achieved greater utilization is due to the lies, misinformation and conspiracy thoeries of the anti-nuclear lobby.

.....

I don't know of anyone who is covering for anything, but if you have a conspiracy theory to share, take it to the appropriate forum.
Makes Romney look like a paragon of consistency.
 
We are acting on emissions reductions. The question doesn't make sense.

You're not if your relying on thorium. It is going to take China 20 years to build one of the fluid reactors Sword is talking about.

We need to act before then and by saying that we might have this technology in 20 years does not justify Canada withdrawing from the international convention on reducing emissions.

There is no "above time frame" so this question doesn't make sense either.

I asked a simple question. How long do YOU think we have to start reducing emissions and, based on that timeframe, can we afford to sit on our thumbs doing nothing - a la Canada - and wait twenty years for a technology that might become commercially viable?

I don't think thorium is a magic bullet that negates the Kyoto initiative. I do think these self imposed "deadlines" are nonsense because it's the market and technology that set the deadlines, not politicians at conferences. Talk is cheap, going carbon neutral isn't.

I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about how long before we emit enough CO2 that we can no longer contain warming within 2 degrees and risk pushing them considerably higher than that.

At best guess estimates, we can 'afford' to emit another 50 Gt or so, in order to keep within a 450 Gt threshold which should limit warming to below 3 degrees C.

How long before we reach that point and can we afford to do nothing for the minimum 20 years it will take to get thorium reactors online?

Simple question. One that Swords cheerleaders have studiously skirted around actually addressing.

Because that's what this discussion is about. Sword stated that if it weren't for the eco-lobby we'd already have thorium, I've demonstrated that there are still considerable technological and economical restraints to thorium reactors and even in China - where there is no 'eco-lobby' preventing progress, they can't get Sword's favoured technology online for another 20 years.

Does that sound practical to you do you think?
 
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That's all good and well but it doesn't actually address anything I've been arguing about.

It addressed your questions about the economics and ease of building LFTRs.

I'm not surprised you still won't read it. You're behaving like a perfectly programmed scientologist.

I can't look at xenu.net, the lawyers will eat me... I can't look at xenu.net, the lawyers will eat me... I can't look at xenu.net, the lawyers will eat me...

I don't think you're even reading my posts tbh.

You've said above that you won't read mine. How would you even tell if I've read yours or not.

you're incapable of having a civil discussion,
**** you Canada! :mad:

You're a hypocrite.
 
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We need to act before then and by saying that we might have this technology in 20 years does not justify Canada withdrawing from the international convention on reducing emissions.

And the vast majority of Canadians have "acted". You really need to be specific as to what "actions" need to be taken. These empty generalizations are beginning to fall on deaf ears.

I asked a simple question. How long do YOU think we have to start reducing emissions and, based on that timeframe, can we afford to sit on our thumbs doing nothing - a la Canada - and wait twenty years for a technology that might become commercially viable?

Canada in particular has many decades before we need to act. Talk to China, tell us what they plan on doing and then we'll see where we're at. Until then sod off (the World, not you :p)

I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about how long before we emit enough CO2 that we can no longer contain warming within 2 degrees and risk pushing them considerably higher than that.

The risks to Canada in the event of a 2 degree increase in average temperature remain to be seen.

Again, trying to strong arm Canada into Kyoto because we heat our homes with clean burning natural gas, while China chugs along without a care in the World isn't going to work.

At best guess estimates, we can 'afford' to emit another 50 Gt or so, in order to keep within a 450 Gt threshold which should limit warming to below 3 degrees C.

I'm afraid we can't afford not to, but we can gamble on how much it warms and what the effects of that increase will be.

That's what this is boiling down to and it doesn't come as any surprise really.

How long before we reach that point and can we afford to do nothing for the minimum 20 years it will take to get thorium reactors online?

But it's not even Canada you have to worry about, it's India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil and Nigeria you have to worry about. They have about 60 times the population of Canada and no where near as "green" energy.


Because that's what this discussion is about. Sword stated that if it weren't for the eco-lobby we'd already have thorium, I've demonstrated that there are still considerable technological and economical restraints to thorium reactors and even in China - where there is no 'eco-lobby' preventing progress, they can't get Sword's favoured technology online for another 20 years.

Does sound practical to you do you think?

Tough call. It's hard to say nuclear isn't 20 years behind the curve because of the eco-lobby. The again, the theory seems to have progressed at a regular pace despite the eco-lobby so maybe the commercial roll out isn't quite 20 years behind. I think if it was practical even the lobbyists couldn't hold it back so I'm inclined to side more with you than S.O.T. on this.
 
Because that's what this discussion is about. Sword stated that if it weren't for the eco-lobby we'd already have thorium,

You're lying again.

I never said that if not for the eco-lobby we'd have thorium reactors on every corner. I said that if not for the eco-lobby we'd have greater utilization of nuclear power.

they can't get Sword's favoured technology online for another 20 years.

I don't have a favoured technology. You've just accidentally convinced yourself I do because it's taken two and a half pages to get it you to understand that a report that discusses "seed and blanket" fuel mixtures in a conventional solid fueled PWR isn't applicable to liquid fueled thorium reactors.

You spent all that time telling us that diesel locomotives don't work because there's no hole to shovel coal into... and you still haven't shown any indication that you get it.
 
despite LFTRs potential, we would likely see a mix of Generation IV+ reactors deployed.

We will likely see a future running on LFTRs, IFRs, pebble beds, HTGRs, Supercritical Reactors, TWRs and whatever else we can come up with in the next few decades.

oh dear indeed.
 
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(I'm hand-typing this from material you've already refused to look at, so forgive me if I get a tad pithy about your hypocrisy and willfully ignorant fanaticism and zealotry, I shouldn't have to treat a grown adult like a four year old girl)
That's all good and well but it doesn't actually address anything I've been arguing about. I don't think you're even reading my posts tbh. And you're incapable of having a civil discussion, I'm not going into this with you any further. I look forward to laughing at you in 5 years time when your adolescent fantasy is still no closer to realisation than i is today.

There's actually another point that makes LFTRs cheaper than conventional reactors that was covered in material already posted that you refused to look at and it's a big one... enrichment.

Uranium from the ground contains about 0.7% U-235, that's the fissile material. The rest is U-238 which is fertile, not fissile. To make it burn in most conventional reactors (except for CANDUs) that concentration needs to be brought up to between 3% and 5%. You can't separate isotopes of the same element chemically, so you need to do it atom by atom. It is a very slow, expensive, time and energy consuming process.

K-25_Aerial.jpg


That's K-25, just one of the uranium enrichment plants built by the US during WW2.

Begun in June 1943 and completed in early 1945 at a cost of $512 million (equivalent to $6.2 billion in today dollars[3]), the K-25 plant employed 12,000 workers. The U-shaped K-25 building measured half a mile by 1,000 feet (300 m) – over 2,000,000 square feet (190,000 m2). Construction began before completion of the design for the process. Due to construction needs at K-25 and elsewhere on the reservation, the town of Oak Ridge, originally designed for 13,000 people, grew to 50,000 by summer 1944. The people needed for the construction of K-25 lived nearby, in a community that came to be known as Happy Valley. Built by the Army in 1943, Happy Valley was a temporary community that housed 15,000 people in trailer homes.[4]

In the post-war years, additional uranium enrichment facilities were built adjacent to K-25 forming a complex officially known as the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant and commonly called the "K-25 site". Uranium enrichment operations at the K-25 site ceased in 1987.[5] This entire site is now called the East Tennessee Technology Park.
​

During WW2, uranium enrichment took 1/6th of all US domestic electricity production.

LFTR technology doesn't require any enrichment. Thorium-232 is converted into U-233 and then burned all inside the reactor core without any need for to pick apart the fuel atom by atom before feeding it into the fuel lines.

So Mr. Amateur Internet Trained Economist™, tell me what's cheaper and more economical. Building one, two three or more enrichment plants... or building zero?

If you can get that answer to me any time before the next ice age, I'll probably crap myself.
 
And the vast majority of Canadians have "acted". You really need to be specific as to what "actions" need to be taken. These empty generalizations are beginning to fall on deaf ears.

Commit to cuts on their 2000 levels of emission output. In Australia, we've commited to a measly 5%, Europe and the UK have committed to 20%, China and India have both committed to reductions in the intensity of their resepctive emissions growth.


Canada in particular has many decades before we need to act. Talk to China, tell us what they plan on doing and then we'll see where we're at. Until then sod off (the World, not you :p)



...

Again, trying to strong arm Canada into Kyoto because we heat our homes with clean burning natural gas, while China chugs along without a care in the World isn't going to work.

So many fallacies, I'm not sure where to begin.

For starters, the heating fallacy. Canada can make the same cuts that other OECD countries commit to without sacrificing their heating or even making it more expensive.

The sort of schemes being put into place under the international framework are things like pricing carbon so as to achieve modest cuts while at the same time sending a market signal to stimulate development of greater efficiencies and investments into renewables.

Canada could make cuts by investing itself in rolling out renewable forms of energy, or drive greater efficiencies in the economy by doing things like utilising bio-waste from agriculture into forms of energy.

Making cuts in emissions does not mean you have to turn your heating off.

Second, China. While it's true China's emissions will continue to expand at alarming rates, this is factored into the carbon budget I outlined above, but to accommodate that unstoppable growth in their emissions it makes our task even more urgent.

Because, no matter how unfair you think it is that Canada should have to make cuts while China continues to grow (lets just forget for a moment that a significant portion of China's emissions come from supplying our consumer desires, we've essentially off-shored our emissions there, that's another story), the reality is that China is a juggernaut that will take decades to turn around.

If we wait for China then we sink the whole goddamn enterprise, you, me China, everyone.

A second point on China is that it is a fallacy to say they are doing nothing. While still confronted with the stark reality outlined above, China has voluntarily committed to making significant cuts in the intensity of their emissions growth and, from all appearances, are going hell for leather in implementing the strategy to achieve those cuts (much more so than the laggardly action we've seen in the developed world). When they set themselves a target they tend to achieve it. The other thing is investment in clean technology now far outstrips anything in the West, as does their installed capacity of renewable energy.

China is a juggernaut, it won't be turned around anytime soon, but it IS taking the necessary action to begin the process of turning it around. Which is more than you can say about Canada or Australia.

But it's not even Canada you have to worry about, it's India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil and Nigeria you have to worry about. They have about 60 times the population of Canada and no where near as "green" energy.

The whole point of the UNFCC, a point that has underpinned all international agreements on emissions going back to 1990, is that rich industrialised economies need to bring down their emissions and transform their economies, in the process making the required technologies cheaper, and provide the model for the developing world to follow so as not to stifle development and penalise the developing world for a problem that is not of their own making.


Tough call. It's hard to say nuclear isn't 20 years behind the curve because of the eco-lobby. The again, the theory seems to have progressed at a regular pace despite the eco-lobby so maybe the commercial roll out isn't quite 20 years behind. I think if it was practical even the lobbyists couldn't hold it back so I'm inclined to side more with you than S.O.T. on this.

Russia has never had a problem with an eco-lobby, they've known about thorium for 50 years, Occam's Razor suggest that the reason has nothing to do with any lobby and rather the tangible technological and economic barriers that render the idea commercially non-viable.
 
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China has committed to a reduction in their carbon intensity. Could you please explain to us all what that actually means in real terms?
 

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