Can this qualify as a challenge?

Dear Fellow Forumers,

3. In the later part of 1982, a conference was held in Fez, Morocco. This conference is significant because we may see the agreement made in it being invoked later on. I think Nostradamus has a quatrain about this place also. Could someone elucidate more about this conference or place?

This conference is the Twelfth Arab Summit Conference held from September 6-9, 1982 at Fez, Morocco. The website address is @www.mideast.web.org/fahd_fez_plan.htm. Please remove the @ in the address.

This is from Quatrain 6:80 of the Prophecies of Nostradamus and its English translation which I failed to get the address:

De Fez le regne paruiendra ... ceux d'Europe,
Feu leur cit, & l'anne tranchera.
Le grand d'Asie terre & mer ... grand troupe,
Que bleux, peres, croix, ... mort dechassera.

The English translation:
From Fez the realm will reach those of Europe,
Their city ablaze and the blade will cut:
The great one of Asia by land and sea with great troop,
So that blues and perses the cross will pursue to death.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo
 
In about 1986, I asked the spirit if 1988 would be the ultimate, the final act of madness or insanity of man since the prophecy states “until 1988”. He replied in the negative. That is why even after 1988, we had cases of insanity committed by madmen. And we will continue to witness these.

So, even taking everything you say as true, you still admit that although the prophesy said "until 1988," acts of insanity continued after 1988. You admit that the prophesy said there would be some sort of decline in 1988 and there has not been. You admit, PC, that the prophesy was wrong. It said 1988, nothing declined in 1988. You are saying that you know that and that you agree with it.

Do you admit that the prophesy was wrong regarding 1988?


[It seems to me that you will latch onto any set of facts to keep these prophesies alive. It seems that these isolated incidents of mental illness do not have in any way show insanity to "prevail." For instance, President Gerald Ford escaped an assassination attempt in 1975. How did Reagan's escape from an assassination attempt show insanity to "prevail" in 1981 any more than it did in 1975?

You cite John Lenon's assassination as evidence of the prophesy. But, on the evening of 30 December 1999, Michael Abram broke into George Harrison's home and stabbed him multiple times. Abram, who believed he was possessed by Harrison and was on a "mission from God" to kill him, was later acquitted on grounds of insanity. How is Lennon's assassination in 1980 evidence of the prophesy but Harrison's attempted assassination in 1999 not evidence that the prophesy was wrong?]
 
I would like to state that in 1982, we had two wars. ... Falkland Islands or Islas Malvinas ... Lebanon

The prophet did not predict the "war in the falklands" or "war in lebanon"---she predicted "something violent in 1982." This is not a very daring prediction: copying from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_1945–1989:

1980-1987 Chadian-Libyan conflict
1980-1992 El Salvador Civil War
1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War
1981 Paquisha War
1981-1988 Ugandan Bush War
1982 Falklands War
1982 Israeli Invasion of Lebanon
1983 U.S. Invasion of Grenada
1983-Present Ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka
1983-2005 Second Sudanese Civil War
1984-present Kurdish insurgency in Turkey
1984-present Free Papua Movement
1984 Siachin War
1985 Agacher Strip War
1987-1993 First Intifada
1984-present Second Ugandan Civil War
1988-Present Casamance Conflict
1988-Present Somali Civil War
1988-1994 Nagorno-Karabakh war
1989-1991 Mauritania-Senegal Border War
1989-1990 U.S. Invasion of Panama
1989-1997 First Liberian Civil War
1989 Romanian Revolution
1984-present Kashmir conflict
 
Dear Fellow Forumers,

Today, Sunday, March 4, 2007, I was able to talk to the woman-medium in the Philippines by phone. The first was before the spirit appropriated her body and the second, after. I was also able to talk to two of the listeners of the spirit who I requested to ask about the challenge.

The body of that woman-medium is appropriated by the spirit in order to talk to the people. Today, the spirit came and stayed only for about five minutes. All that were presented during the session were health problems of the listeners. Even the two listeners who I talked to on the phone earlier did not have the opportunity to ask the spirit regarding the challenge.

The woman asked me to come to the Philippines to discuss the challenge with the spirit and to prepare the documentation for the challenge. Since I am still working full-time, I cannot just get an unscheduled leave. Tomorrow, Monday, I will ask my supervisor if could take a leave during the Holy Week.

Meantime, you may set down a tentative protocol for the challenge. It is not me who is making the challenge. The spirit does not appropriate my body but the woman's. It is when the spirit is in the body of the woman that He can talk and say, for example, the contents of the sealed boxes. When the spirit leaves her body and her spirit comes back to her body, I think she may not even know what happened during the session. So who is the challenger to make the application? Will JREF accept the answers of the spirit while He is in the woman's body?

Thank you for your patience in waiting all this time and your assistance for me to understand the challenge better.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo
 
Dear Ben M and Fellow Forumers,

You acknowledge that in 1982, there were two wars and found these in Wikipedia. I did not consult the Wikipedia. I knew already those wars back in 1982 after I got hold of the magazine article about the 19 prophecies earlier that year. Then I read also a news item about the conference in Fez, Morocco which I suspect would fulfil the prophecy completely.

I did not say "something violent in 1982." Here is the prophecy again: "The ambition and motivation for war will be perennial inducements among all races until such inducements are made manifest three years after 1979."

The prophet did not predict the "war in the falklands" or "war in lebanon"---she predicted "something violent in 1982." This is not a very daring prediction: copying from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_1945–1989:

1980-1987 Chadian-Libyan conflict
1980-1992 El Salvador Civil War
1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War
1981 Paquisha War
1981-1988 Ugandan Bush War
1982 Falklands War
1982 Israeli Invasion of Lebanon
1983 U.S. Invasion of Grenada
1983-Present Ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka
1983-2005 Second Sudanese Civil War
1984-present Kurdish insurgency in Turkey
1984-present Free Papua Movement
1984 Siachin War
1985 Agacher Strip War
1987-1993 First Intifada
1984-present Second Ugandan Civil War
1988-Present Casamance Conflict
1988-Present Somali Civil War
1988-1994 Nagorno-Karabakh war
1989-1991 Mauritania-Senegal Border War
1989-1990 U.S. Invasion of Panama
1989-1997 First Liberian Civil War
1989 Romanian Revolution
1984-present Kashmir conflict

Does the fact that there were many other wars after 1982 fulfil the prophecy that "the ambition and motivation for war will be perennial inducements among all races"?

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo
 
...
Meantime, you may set down a tentative protocol for the challenge. It is not me who is making the challenge. The spirit does not appropriate my body but the woman's. It is when the spirit is in the body of the woman that He can talk and say, for example, the contents of the sealed boxes. When the spirit leaves her body and her spirit comes back to her body, I think she may not even know what happened during the session. So who is the challenger to make the application? Will JREF accept the answers of the spirit while He is in the woman's body?

Thank you for your patience in waiting all this time and your assistance for me to understand the challenge better.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo

Technically, the woman (what's her name?) must apply, since she will determine what is in the boxes:
...
A brief protocol proposal:

1. Person A prepares 10 boxes with 10 different items, the boxes are numbered 01 - 10. Person A notes on a sheet of paper what item is in what box. Person A seals the boxes and deposits them on a table in a room. No one else is present in said room. The table is monitored with a video camera. Person A must not have contact with anyone else involved in this test before the conclusion of step #5.
2. Person B enters the room accompanied by the "medium".
3. The "spirit" "contacts" the "medium" with the information about the content of the boxes. A time limit for this part of the test is set, e.g. two hours = 12 minutes on average per box. The "medium" is not allowed to touch the boxes.
4. Person B notes what information the "spirit" gave about which particular box.
5. The "medium" will tell Person B when the "contact" is finished. If the test duration exceeds the pre-agreed time limit, Person B will declare the test finished.
6. After that, Person A will reenter the room and both lists will be checked for matches. Six or more matches will mean a successful test. Five and less matches will mean an unsuccessful test.

There are a couple of things which need to be addressed first:

a. Who will apply for the Challenge? Only the test participant is allowed to apply, as stated here: http://www.randi.org/research/challenge.html
Since this seems to be the "medium", this means she would have to apply herself.
b. The protocol is mutually agreed upon between JREF and the applicant. I am neither a representative of JREF, nor are you, PeaceCrusader, the one who will apply.
c. Only after a proper application is received and accepted, JREF and the applicant can negotiate a test location, a test date and the protocol.
d. There's probably more details to work out. For the sake of brevity I only addressed the most important points.

I based these suggestions on more than three years of experience with the JREF Challenge as a JREF Forum Member; including my time as a lurker. Only a JREF Representative can make definite calls on what is appropriate: challenge@randi.org

As usual, productive suggestions are appreciated.

I appreciate your efforts, PeaceCrusader. However, I will express my sincere doubts that this claim will ever move to the testing stage.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: There are USD 1,000,000 waiting for the "spirit" and the "medium" to be snagged up by doing two simple tests if the "medium" would apply before April 01, 2007.

The application can be found here:
http://www.randi.org/research/challenge.html
The FAQs can be found here:
http://www.randi.org/research/faq.html

One Million Dollars. Two simple tests. Will she do it?
 
Dear Fellow Forumers,

<snip>Today, the spirit came and stayed only for about five minutes. All that were presented during the session were health problems of the listeners. Even the two listeners who I talked to on the phone earlier did not have the opportunity to ask the spirit regarding the challenge.


:dl:


We told you so, dumbski.

No go away.

M.
 
Does the fact that there were many other wars after 1982 fulfil the prophecy that "the ambition and motivation for war will be perennial inducements among all races"?

Aristeo,

You seem to be missing the point. We are trying to compare two hypotheses: A) that the woman is really in contact with a spirit, and making true predictions, or B) that she is only making normal human guesses.

If Hypothesis A were true, and the spirit is real, you'd be able to find historical events which match her predictions pretty well. Your lists of wars, unrest, and hurricanes are all vaguely consistent with this hypothesis.

If Hypothesis B were true, and the woman is just guessing, you'd ALSO be able to find historical events which match her guesses; the guesses are very vague and wars/tornados/hurricanes/epidemics/confusion are all extremely common. You don't need to be psychic to "predict" that common events will recur.

Therefore, the observations are sort-of consistent with Hypothesis A, but totally consistent with Hypothesis B. Do you understand what this means? It means that everyone on this forum is still favoring hypothesis B, and will continue favoring it until we see firm data which conflicts with it. None of the 1979 predictions was specific enough to EVER rule out this hypothesis.

On the other hand, if the spirit can predict "James Randi's hidden box contains a 2002 Powerball ticket with the numbers 2,3,8,23,26,31", and she turns out to be correct, this would be a very strong piece of evidence to rule out Hypothesis B.
 
... So who is the challenger to make the application? Will JREF accept the answers of the spirit while He is in the woman's body? ...

Although neither of us can speak for JREF, I am pretty sure that GzuzKryst is right on the money. Since the sounds will be coming out of the woman's body (regardless of whether their source is the spirit or the woman), she's the one who will have to actually fill out and notarize the application.

What the JREF will accept is entirely dependent on the protocol agreed to by both JREF and the applicant. For example, if she goes with GzuzKryst's suggestion:

3. The "spirit" "contacts" the "medium" with the information about the content of the boxes. A time limit for this part of the test is set, e.g. two hours = 12 minutes on average per box. The "medium" is not allowed to touch the boxes.
4. Person B notes what information the "spirit" gave about which particular box.

And if JREF agrees to this, then this is what they will accept. Again, it all depends on the protocol agreed to by both the medium and JREF. If you are going to be assisting this lady with the Challenge, please make sure that you read the Application and the FAQ, which have both been referenced by GzuzKryst, carefully. Make sure you understand the process. If you have any problems or questions, please let us know (or, preferably, ask Jeff, so that you have an "official" answer). I would highly recommend that you not travel to the Phillipines until you have a solid understanding of the test.
 
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You acknowledge that in 1982, there were two wars

Wait, who exactly acknowledged this? Just from that article there were at least 6 wars in 1982, and this is not counting the various countries in Africa and Central/South America that are in an almost permanent state of civil war.

Does the fact that there were many other wars after 1982 fulfil the prophecy that "the ambition and motivation for war will be perennial inducements among all races"?

Let's see what this actually means shall we? First of all "the ambition and motivation for war". Firstly, this seems a little odd, since it is quite clear that all wars are not started for the same reason. Some are for money, others for power, others for resources, others for revenge, others possibly for self defense, and no doubt there are many other reasons. So that's one thing the prophecy is wrong on. Let's assume that what it actually meant was "the ambitions[/i] and motivations[/i] for war".

Moving on, "will be perrenial".
per·en·ni·al (p-rn-l)
adj.
1. Lasting or active through the year or through many years.
2.
a. Lasting an indefinitely long time; enduring: perennial happiness.
b. Appearing again and again; recurrent. See Synonyms at continual.
So you/spirit are saying that the causes of war will be either things that happen continuously or happen lots of times. Again, this is simply not true. It is entirely possible for a war to be started for a one-off reason. For instance, your example of the Falklands war was started because Argentina invaded the Falklands. They only did this once, and it did not last for many years. The Falklands had only been involved in conflict once before, in 1833, which was entirely peaceful and had never been contested since. Therefore the prophecy was wrong, the motivations for war were not perrenial, even in your own examples.

Next, "inducements".
in·duce·ment (n-dsmnt, -dys-)
n.
1. Something that helps bring about an action or a desired result; an incentive:
So essentially what you are saying is that people fo to war because of things that help something happen. Gosh, that is specific. That could simply mean that people will go to war because of things that start wars. A more generous reading would simply be that people go to war because they think they will get something out of it. Colour me unsurprised.

Finally "among all races". This suggests two things, that all races will be involved in war and that they will all have wars for the same reasons. As I've already said, wars are started for many reasons, so the second meaning is clearly false. It is also very clearly false that all races were involved in war. You yourself cite only two wars during that time, and even if all the wars that actually happened at this time are counted it still doesn't include most, let alone all, races. For starters, can you find an example of a Maouri, pygmy or Japanese person involved in any of these wars?

So, not only is the prophecy not shown to be true, it is shown to be both logically and factually false on all accounts. Not really a great showing for an all knowing spirit.
 
Surely all of this nonsense can be dropped now.
I like to give people a fair go but this is ridiculous.
Even I can see what he is saying is nonsense, he even mentioned Nostradamus:eye-poppi
 
Dear Fellow Forumers,

Today, Sunday, March 4, 2007, I was able to talk to the woman-medium in the Philippines by phone. The first was before the spirit appropriated her body and the second, after. I was also able to talk to two of the listeners of the spirit who I requested to ask about the challenge.

The body of that woman-medium is appropriated by the spirit in order to talk to the people. Today, the spirit came and stayed only for about five minutes. All that were presented during the session were health problems of the listeners. Even the two listeners who I talked to on the phone earlier did not have the opportunity to ask the spirit regarding the challenge.

The woman asked me to come to the Philippines to discuss the challenge with the spirit and to prepare the documentation for the challenge. Since I am still working full-time, I cannot just get an unscheduled leave. Tomorrow, Monday, I will ask my supervisor if could take a leave during the Holy Week.

Meantime, you may set down a tentative protocol for the challenge. It is not me who is making the challenge. The spirit does not appropriate my body but the woman's. It is when the spirit is in the body of the woman that He can talk and say, for example, the contents of the sealed boxes. When the spirit leaves her body and her spirit comes back to her body, I think she may not even know what happened during the session. So who is the challenger to make the application? Will JREF accept the answers of the spirit while He is in the woman's body?

Thank you for your patience in waiting all this time and your assistance for me to understand the challenge better.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo

I'm curious, Aristeo.

Why this woman? There must be thousands of "trance mediums" who make worthlessly vague and inaccurate "prophecies", and perform "health readings". There are probably hundreds of them in the Philippines alone, so why this one in particular? What made you decide that this woman was "the one"? I assume it wasn't based upon her uncanny accuracy. :rolleyes: What makes her different than all the rest?
 
Although neither of us can speak for JREF, I am pretty sure that GzuzKryst is right on the money. Since the sounds will be coming out of the woman's body (regardless of whether their source is the spirit or the woman), she's the one who will have to actually fill out and notarize the application.

Actually, as far as I recall this remains one of the unanswered questions of the application process: Can someone other than the performer apply for the challenge?

I'm aware of no rule nor statement from an official JREF representative that prohibits a application like: "I will produce a person that can perform the following...". It is certainly a good thing to ask in a PM to Jeff (perhaps we'll get an answer about it at last).

Communication by phone may be fine too, provided the spirit can operate over distances that way. The applicant could be present with the sealed item (as well as the JREF-appointed observer and the video cameras documenting it) while on the phone with whomever he chooses.

Finally, it is easier to design a challenge arround something more pass/fail than identifying objects in a box (a vague answer like "it could be used as a paperweight" needs to be prevented by a carefully-worded protocol or a limited item set). I'd suggest choosing numbers or words that appear in a sealed envelope. Of course, the spirit may be fickle and refuse such, so it'd be best to determine exactly what the spirit is willing to do before submitting the application.
 
Dear GzuzKryzt and Jackalgirl and Fellow Forumers,

Thank you, GzuzKryzt and Jackalgirl, for your kind help in clarifying the issue.

My application for leave during the Holy Week was approved. This evening, I checked flights to Manila and found an airline that suits my schedule. I hope there are seats available on those flights. I will book with the travel agency today, Tuesday, March 6.

Before traveling to the Philippines, I will ask the woman (her name is Maria Liwayway Alvaran) to sign the application (downloaded from the Internet), have it notarized, and send it to JREF, so that when I will be there, we may just discuss the protocol.

GzuzKryzt, why did you say the deadline is April 1, 2007? I thought this Challenge was started in 1964 and has been going on until the US$1,000,000 has been claimed. Nobody has ever passed it yet.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo
 
Dear GzuzKryzt and Jackalgirl and Fellow Forumers,

Thank you, GzuzKryzt and Jackalgirl, for your kind help in clarifying the issue.

My application for leave during the Holy Week was approved. This evening, I checked flights to Manila and found an airline that suits my schedule. I hope there are seats available on those flights. I will book with the travel agency today, Tuesday, March 6.

Before traveling to the Philippines, I will ask the woman (her name is Maria Liwayway Alvaran) to sign the application (downloaded from the Internet), have it notarized, and send it to JREF, so that when I will be there, we may just discuss the protocol.

GzuzKryzt, why did you say the deadline is April 1, 2007? I thought this Challenge was started in 1964 and has been going on until the US$1,000,000 has been claimed. Nobody has ever passed it yet.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo

Great! Don't forget to include a protocol proposal, it makes JREF less grumpy.
 
Dear Psiload and Fellow Forumers,

I'm curious, Aristeo.
Why this woman? There must be thousands of "trance mediums" who make worthlessly vague and inaccurate "prophecies", and perform "health readings". There are probably hundreds of them in the Philippines alone, so why this one in particular? What made you decide that this woman was "the one"? I assume it wasn't based upon her uncanny accuracy. What makes her different than all the rest?

I actually asked the spirit directly sometime in the mid-1980s: "There are other spirits who appropriate bodies who call themselves Ama (God the Father in Pilipino), like the one in our town and another right in our village. How do we know that You are the true Ama and not the other spirits who claim to be Ama?" His answer to me was: "Scrutinize what I say and you then can determine who I am."

God must have led me to this woman. In the 1970s, I used to investigate unnatural phenomena that I read in publications or saw on TV. When I worked overseas, I did not have the opportunity to do this anymore.

Strange enough, in 1982, during my home leave, I browsed through the pile of magazines that we keep at home. One issue that attracted my attention was the Nazarene on the cover of the magazine. It was the issue for Lent in 1980. When I browsed through its pages, I saw the article entitled "A Blind Woman Sees the Wisdom of the Lord". I read about the prophecies revealed by the "Voice". Since I did not have the time to check it as I was going back to my work overseas, I took the magazine with me to check if the prophecies revealed would be fulfilled. The next year, during my home leave, I decided to visit the address in Metro Manila stated in the article. I met some listeners and they told me to come back in the evening for Ama would offer a mass. I could bring a tape recorder to record the mass.

That evening, I came back with a tape recorder. The transcript is at @www.geocities.com/peacecrusader888/pahayag002.htm (please remove @ for the correct URL) in the original Pilipino text. I am sorry this one is not translated to English yet. When I came home and replayed the recording, I realized that it was very applicable to my situation that time. It seems that the spirit made His sermon focused on me although that was the first time I ever heard the spirit.

Even though I have audio tape recordings of sessions with the spirit which I replay from time to time, even though I transcribed these recordings, even though we can talk to Him but we cannot see Him, even though I see His prophecies happening, even though I noticed that He knows us and the people we are in contact with, even though He give hints indirectly that He is Jesus Christ, still I doubted that that spirit is Jesus Himself. It took me eleven years (1983-1994) before I accepted that that spirit is really Jesus Christ. If it took me that long, I cannot expect anyone to believe straight away that He is Jesus. Faith in something or someone is very hard to change.

My faith is in that spirit and not in the woman. Her body is just being used by the spirit to talk to us and help people be cured of their illnesses just like Jesus when He was here on Earth, people were drawn or attracted to Him because they sought healing of their sickness.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo
 
Dear GzuzKryzt and Jackalgirl and Fellow Forumers,

Thank you, GzuzKryzt and Jackalgirl, for your kind help in clarifying the issue.

My application for leave during the Holy Week was approved. This evening, I checked flights to Manila and found an airline that suits my schedule. I hope there are seats available on those flights. I will book with the travel agency today, Tuesday, March 6.

Before traveling to the Philippines, I will ask the woman (her name is Maria Liwayway Alvaran) to sign the application (downloaded from the Internet), have it notarized, and send it to JREF, so that when I will be there, we may just discuss the protocol.

GzuzKryzt, why did you say the deadline is April 1, 2007? I thought this Challenge was started in 1964 and has been going on until the US$1,000,000 has been claimed. Nobody has ever passed it yet.

Best regards,
Aristeo Canlas Fernando, Peace Crusader and Echo

PeaceCrusader, I tip my hat to you seeing this through by visiting Ms. Alvaran, even sacrificing a week's vacation. You do seem committed.

Starting April 01, 2007, the JREF Challenge will shift its focus from "laymen" to the "big names" in the psychic business. The announcement ("A Major Revision") was made here: http://www.randi.org/jr/2007-01/011207challenge.html#i3
And a follow-up here: http://www.randi.org/jr/2007-01/011907tam.html#i4

The two links will bring you up to speed. If you have any further questions, ask away.
 
Before traveling to the Philippines, I will ask the woman (her name is Maria Liwayway Alvaran) to sign the application (downloaded from the Internet), have it notarized, and send it to JREF, so that when I will be there, we may just discuss the protocol.

It is critical that both you and she understand the process. If she does not speak or read English, someone with a good, solid understanding of English will need to translate for her. When she signs the application, she is affirming to both an understanding of and an agreement to all of the terms of the Challenge. This is why it is important that everyone involved understand it thoroughly.

Since you are going to be helping her with this, I have to ask: have you read both the Application and the FAQ, in their entirety? Do you understand the process?

The medium is going to need to understand that the test isn't just a simple demonstration. It's going to have to be a test that is designed in such a way as all other possible explanations for the effects, including trickery, are ruled out. It can't involve open-ended prophecies: the results have to be obviously apparant, with no need for interpretation or explanation. That's why we've gone to such lengths trying to describe, for example, proper box-item protocols. It's really critical that everyone involved understand this, and understand that both parties -- the medium and JREF -- must agree to the steps of the protocol before it will be accepted, which means that there will probably be some back-and-forth in order to "tweak" the protocol to get it right. Make sure, also, that she sticks to one testable claim.

I see that GzuzKryst has explained the change to the Challenge that's coming up on 1 April. So time is short to get the application in. Good luck!
 

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