Can theists be rational?

What Darat is saying is that it assumes a non-zero probability for the existence of god(s) and it produces a non-zero probability for the existence of god(s). That is the premise that is assumed. You are correct that it does not assume the actual percentage, but it does assume a non-zero answer.

Sure, but that's not an example of Begging the Question. The conclusion is that there is a different probability when considering fine-tuning than the probability in the premise when not considering fine-tuning. The fact that both probabilities are non-zero doesn't make the argument circular.

As with Drake's equation, if you replace any of the probabilities in the premise with 0%, of course you'll get 0% probability as a conclusion.

The problem I see could only arise if someone wants to use this argument to somehow "prove" the existence of god(s). It cannot be used that way. It is really only a way to think about the probabilities based on certain assumptions that are probably very suspect.

Right, it doesn't prove the existence of a god. It only produces a probability of a god considering fine-tuning given a probability of a god without considering fine-tuning. You'd have to prove the premises (i.e. the probability of a fine-tuned universe and the probability of a god without fine-tuning) to use this to prove that the existence of a god is probable, much less to prove that a god actually exists.

-Bri
 
Now we know the FSM is recently made up fiction however the likes of Bri and Malern would hold that the above argument is a valid, logical and rational argument that shows it is "probable" that the FSM actually exists and created the universe!

I don't believe anyone in this thread has stated that they believe the conclusion to be valid. The reason it's invalid because the premises are invalid.

It does not matter what you plug into this argument the answer will always be "...this gives us a figure so close to 100% as to seem to establish beyond doubt the reality of the XXXX..."

Entirely untrue. You can plug in 0% into the equation and get 0% back out. You can even plug in other (probably more accurate) numbers into the probabilities and get a very, very small probability for the existence of a god.

and the reason being is that the argument is actually circular - it assumes the probability that XXX exists as one of its starting premises, that is why it always "establishes beyond doubt the reality of XXX..."

The reason it returns a very large probability of the existence of a god is because of the premises. I don't believe anybody in this thread has stated that they believe the premises to be correct, and several have stated some very valid objections to the premises. But that's not the same as Begging the Question.

ETA: It occurs to me that by "It does not matter what you plug into this argument the answer will always be '...this gives us a figure so close to 100% as to seem to establish beyond doubt the reality of the XXXX..." you meant plugging in an entity in place of "god" rather than plugging in different values for the probabilities. That's true. But it also depends on whether you think the entity would affect the probability of an inhabitable universe (see premise 2 and also my post below).

-Bri
 
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"The universe is fine-tuned" is question begging. It implies, at the very least, teleological intent.

Not if you already establish the possibility of God in the first place. The more precise formulation of the argument would be "The universe appears to be fine-tuned to support life. Therefore, it is probable to assume a fine-tuner exists". If you come across a watch in the desert, it's OK to posit the existence of a watch-maker to explain the existence of the watch. It's not question begging.

Furthermore, it sort of has to be established before you can up and use it.

And that's how the argument is usually attacked: the universe is not really fine-tuned. If there are a gazillion actual universes, the argument is not very persuasive.

As for defining God, CJ was a little over-zealous in the argument's formulation. The fine-tuning argument first tries to establish the likelihood of a fine-tuner (some being(s) with the power to create a universe and "fix" it's physical constants). Once that is established, it takes further argumentation to prove there's a high probability that the fine-tuner is God.

Or maybe what CJ meant in the original argument is just that
God = fine-tuner.
 
Sure, but that's not an example of Begging the Question. The conclusion is that there is a different probability when considering fine-tuning than the probability in the premise when not considering fine-tuning. The fact that both probabilities are non-zero doesn't make the argument circular.

No, right, I agree with you, which is why I stated things as I did. I'm just trying to understand everyone's position to help close the circle.

The problem with the FSM example is that it has thoroughly wacky assumptions, so it produces a wacky result. We have no way of knowing (or probably even getting close to) the probabilities, so it seems a waste of time.
 
Given Darat's objection that the FSM is made up, premise 2 would be something like:


2.Prob [universe inhabitable if FSM exists] = 0.00 (one billion, billion, billion zeros) 1
Prob [universe inhabitable if no designer] = 0.00 (one billion, billion, billion zeros) 1

Which would yield whatever probability you assigned to the existence of the FSM without consideration of an inhabitable universe in premise 1.

-Bri
 
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That's an objection to the percentages used in the premise, and nobody is arguing that the premise is necessarily accurate.

It's a demonstration that even if you agree on the percentages used in the premise, it doesn't really get you any further, since whether or not it allows you to conclude that it is 'probable' (i.e. a particular threshold is passed) that gods are involved in this universe still depends upon the probability that gods are involved in this universe (i.e. it provides no real guidance on this issue even if true).

To go back to my die example, if I tell you that a die with a zero on it also has a 12 on it, and you look at the list of numbers and notice that there is a 12, how does that change the probability that you will roll a zero?

Or to make it a bit more definite...

A die plant makes six and ten-sided dice for various games which means that they have a variety of different numbers on the faces (some have a fibonacci sequence, some are sequential with different starting points, some have the numbers from Lost, some are generated randomly, etc.). You are told that some dice may have a 4, and that if there is a 4, there is usually also a 6. One of the dice is rolled and you are told that it shows a 6. Is it probable that there is also a 4 on that die?

Linda
 
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Given Darat's objection that the FSM is made up, premise 2 would be something like:


2.Prob [universe inhabitable if FSM exists] = 0.00 (one billion, billion, billion zeros) 1
Prob [universe inhabitable if no designer] = 0.00 (one billion, billion, billion zeros) 1

Which would yield whatever probability you assigned to the existence of the FSM without consideration of an inhabitable universe in premise 1.

-Bri


Given our lack of knowledge of God, the same can be said for premise 2 in that case as well, unless God is properly defined as the designer; and that hsa its own set of problems.

This isn't a complex formula and the math is easy to follow. Just leave the likelihood of God out of it and it becomes a formula for how likely you think life is with or without a designer. All it does is show people's biases -- in a semi-formalized way, of course.
 
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It's a demonstration that even if you agree on the percentages used in the premise, it doesn't really get you any further, since whether or not it allows you to conclude that it is 'probable' (i.e. a particular threshold is passed) that gods are involved in this universe still depends upon the probability that gods are involved in this universe (i.e. it provides no real guidance on this issue even if true).

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you. Let's say that "probable" means "greater than 50%." If you accept the probabilities in the premise (that the probability of a god existing without considering fine-tuning are 1 in a million and that the probability of a fine-tuned universe is 1 in a million if a god exists but 1 in a gazillion if there is no god), it would certainly conclude that it is "very probable" that a god exists (the probability would be above 99%).

So yes, the conclusion depends on premise 1 (the probability that a god exists without considering fine-tuning), if that's what you're saying. But if you're saying that the conclusion depends on something other than the probabilities in the premise I disagree.

A die plant makes six and ten-sided dice for various games which means that they have a variety of different numbers on the faces (some have a fibonacci sequence, some are sequential with different starting points, some have the numbers from Lost, some are generated randomly, etc.). You are told that some dice may have a 4, and that if there is a 4, there is usually also a 6. One of the dice is rolled and you are told that it shows a 6. What is the probability that there is also a 4 on that die?

That would depend on probability you mean by "usually" (i.e. what is the probability of a 6 if there is a 4) and on what the probability is of a 6 without a 4 (both of which are part of the premise of cj's argument).

-Bri
 
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Given our lack of knowledge of God, the same can be said for premise 2 in that case as well, unless God is properly defined as the designer; and that hsa its own set of problems.

This isn't a complex formula and the math is easy to follow. Just leave the likelihood of God out of it and it becomes a formula for how likely you think life is with or without a designer. All it does is show people's biases -- in a semi-formalized way, of course.

Yes, exactly. I completely agree.

-Bri
 
"The universe is fine-tuned" is question begging. It implies, at the very least, teleological intent.
Not if you already establish the possibility of God in the first place.
Entirely incorrect. Establishing the possibility precisely means establishing that god's existence cannot be ruled out. It says absolutely nothing of probability (at least not technically, but I'd rather not get into that minutia).

"The universe is fine-tuned" is a positive statement about the actual nature of the universe, not a probabilistic statement. That assumes not merely establishing that it can't be ruled out, and not even merely establishing that it's probable, but rather, actual full acceptance of the notion.

"Fine-tuned" necessarily implies "tuning", which necessarily implies that a subject has, with intent, adjusted parameters to accomplish a particular purpose; i.e., teleological intent.
The more precise formulation of the argument would be "The universe appears to be fine-tuned to support life. Therefore, it is probable to assume a fine-tuner exists".
And that more precise formulation is also fallacious. Consider: "The mountain appears to be shaped like an old man. Therefore, it is probable to assume that said old man existed at one time."

You need to establish more than appearance to get to probability. You need to establish, well, probability.
If you come across a watch in the desert, it's OK to posit the existence of a watch-maker to explain the existence of the watch. It's not question begging.
This is different because we already know watch-makers make watches. You don't already know that gods make universes. You don't already know that old men turn into mountains.
And that's how the argument is usually attacked: the universe is not really fine-tuned.
Actually, all three of these are categorically different scenarios, and they each look like this when properly analyzed:
  • Watchmakers really do make watches
  • Old men don't really turn into mountains
  • Who knows if gods really make universes?
Note that we don't assume watchmakers make watches--we know they do. That doesn't change the fact that if we see a watch in the middle of nowhere, then positing there's a watchmaker is an inference--it certainly is one. But the justification for the inference is based on something we actually know, actually does, happen.

The justification for the inference of fine-tuning is based on something you assume happens based on appearance.

And the justification for mountains that look like old men actually having been old men? Well, no sane person really believes it to be the case.
As for defining God, CJ was a little over-zealous in the argument's formulation. The fine-tuning argument first tries to establish the likelihood of a fine-tuner (some being(s) with the power to create a universe and "fix" it's physical constants). Once that is established, it takes further argumentation to prove there's a high probability that the fine-tuner is God.
You're a bit over-zealous in this formulation. It takes argumentation to demonstrate that there's an objective or at least mutually agreed, at least relatively crisp, concept of God before you can even speak of there being a probability that a particular fine tuner is or is not a god. Furthermore, you have to reach this point to come to the conclusion that you just made--namely, that "it takes further argumentation to prove there's a high probability that the fine-tuner is God"--unless you can prove the weaker, which is that necessarily the term "God" would not apply to all fine-tuners--however, you still have to get agreement here before you can say that there's even a thing to prove.

So says this atheist, or pantheist, or polytheist. Honestly, without wavering, I'm any of these--it all depends on how you define "god". I call myself an atheist only to minimize misconceptions. (In fact, I'm really a polytheist--I know for a fact multiple gods exist. I've seen them--in museums, on display!)
 
Guys (generic, neuter), why not devise your own formula for the probability that god(s) don't exist because of the problem of evil, or god(s) hiddeness, or the existence of ichneumonwasps? You could have plenty of fun with it.
 
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you. Let's say that "probable" means "greater than 50%." If you accept the probabilities in the premise (that the probability of a god existing without considering fine-tuning are 1 in a million and that the probability of a fine-tuned universe is 1 in a million if a god exists but 1 in a gazillion if there is no god), it would certainly conclude that it is "very probable" that a god exists (the probability would be above 99%).

No, you have to exclude the "probability of a god existing without considering fine-tuning" since there isn't anything to constrain this number. The percentages we are talking about are the probability of life without fine-tuning, which we can at least reasonably pretend are constrained. So whether or not that million-fold increase in the odds moves you to "probability greater than 50%" is still dependent upon whether or not the probability of god is more or less than one in a million.

That would depend on probability you mean by "usually" (i.e. what is the probability of a 6 if there is a 4) and on what the probability is of a 6 without a 4 (both of which are part of the premise of cj's argument).

-Bri

It's true that the answer would depend upon the probabilities you mentioned, but I've given you as much information as cj had to work with.

Linda
 
Well, as an exercise in showing theists are rational, Bri & Malerin, you're doing a great job.

Trying to find a number small enough to satisfy doubters, yet large enough to still be within the bounds of rationality.

Maybe, instead of all the pussyfooting around with a millionth of this and a billionth of that, you'd like to actually state a number, in probability terms, which you consider within the bounds of rationality.

0.0000000001? 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000001?

Thanks.
 
The 'probability for the existence of gods' is completely unconstrained. It could be anywhere from 0 to millions of orders of magnitude. To say that using information like "the probability of life in the presence and absence of fine-tuning" helps you to constrain these probabilities is like saying that rather than millions of orders of magnitude, the possibility is now millions of orders of magnitude minus six.

Linda
 
No, you have to exclude the "probability of a god existing without considering fine-tuning" since there isn't anything to constrain this number.

I'm afraid I don't understand what you mean. I think you're just saying that any number given in the premise would be speculation, which I agree with. But again that's just a rejection of the premise.

ETA: I would actually say that the main problem with the argument cj posted is with premise 2 rather than premise 1 though. I don't think we have much of a clue as to the probabilities of the universe supporting life, with or without a god.

It's true that the answer would depend upon the probabilities you mentioned, but I've given you as much information as cj had to work with.

The argument that cj posted provided the probabilities as premises. You can reject those probabilities as speculation (thereby rejecting the premise). But given the missing probabilities as a premise of your die example would yield similar results as the argument cj posted.

-Bri
 
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H = Hypothesis

D = Observed data.

P(H|D) = Probability of H given D.

Bayes Rule:

P(H|D) = P(D|H).P(H) / [P(D|H).P(H) + P(D|H').P(H')]

For the hypothesis, H = God exists:

The specific D to use is pulled from one's ass.

P(H) is pulled from one's ass.

P(H') is pulled from one's ass.

P(D|H) is pulled from one's ass.

P(D|H') is pulled from one's ass.

Here's something much more robust.
 
The question you asked was "On a regular die, what is the probability of rolling a '3'?"

It's more than a little ironic that your argument assumes the existence of a "fair" die when no such thing actually exists.
Yes, there are. The entire multi-billion dollar gaming industry is based on these facts.

I would be willing to bet that of the thousands of times you've rolled a die in your lifetime, there has never been a single time that the probability of your rolling a "3" was exactly 1:6 due if nothing else than to imperfections in the die.
Again, you simply don't understand what 1:6 probability means. It does NOT mean that when you roll the die 6 times you'll get one of each number. It also doesn't mean that if you roll it 600 times you'll get each number 100 times. It also doesn't mean if you roll it 6000 times you'll get each number 1000 times.

It means there are 6 equally likely total possible outcomes, and just one possible target (successful) outcome.

Besides, these are thought experiments only. So if our analogy says, consider a fair die it's the same as with choosing one of 6 different cards when I stipulate that the choice is random. Yes, there are real-world ways of cheating that would make the choice not random, but that's not the situation I'm talking about. You could talk about that situation, but you'd need a lot more information, and the calculations quickly become very very complicated.



The argument is just saying that if you accept the premise that the chances of a life-supporting universe are greater with a god than without one, it can be concluded that the chances of a god existing in our universe is more likely than if our universe didn't support life.
And the argument is circular. The premise includes the assumption that God exists. If you don't know that, then you can't possible determine the probabilities of a life-supporting universe with a god or without a god.

How great those chances are depend entirely on the probabilities you assign in the premise. It's similar to Drake's equation in that regard. If you feel that any probability assigned is speculation, as with an argument based on Drake's equation, you are simply objecting to the premise that assigns the probability.
It is not the same as Drake's equation at all. Assigning a value for any factor assumes the existence of that factor. This is not assuming the conclusion. All the factors in Drake's equation assumes things that are all known to exist--stars, planets, life, intelligent life, intelligent life that can use technology, extinction of a species, etc. While the probabilities are all unknown, the existence of each of those things is 100% certain and known.

It is meaningful, for example, to say that as the probability of finding planets in a certain orbit goes up, so does the probability of finding ET intelligent life.

It is meaningless to say that as the probability of a life-supporting universe with a God goes up, the probability for the existence of God goes up. It is circular.
 
The argument that cj posted provided the probabilities as premises. You can reject those probabilities as speculation (thereby rejecting the premise). But given the missing probabilities as a premise of your die example would yield similar results as the argument cj posted.

See my last post above.

In Drake's equation, you can reject the premise that there his a high (or numerically specific) probability of planets in the sweet spot (that is 1 such planet per x number of stars), but the argument still has meaning. If that probability goes up, so does the probability of ET intelligent life (conclusion). If that probability goes down, so does the probability of ET intelligent life (the conclusion). The assumptions are things that are known to exist (planets, life, etc.)

If instead, you merely argued that the premise is there is a 1:x probability of ET intelligent life (that is, if you assume what isn't known), and then concluded that there is some probability of ET intelligent life, the argument is meaningless because it is circular.
 
Isn't this the reciprocal of the same improperly asked question - what are the chances that life would arise in just this way or that a protein could fold in just that way given all the possibilities?

The probability that life would arise given the current physical constants is 1. It's here and we are proof. Any conjecture over the chances that just this set of constants would arise does beg the question, the question only possibly being raised by lifeforms. It doesn't matter if there is a one in several trillion chance since it occurred. Fine tuning, no fine tuning, no one could possibly tell the difference. No one could ask the question unless this set of conditions arose, and to see fine tuning as the cause already implies intelligent design, which is question-begging.

It's really just math obscuring issues surrounding the anthropic principle, so it's a fancy waste of time.
 

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