Bushfire season 2023-2024

[Dabop]

Victoria might be ok (maybe) but we had a very wet year last year, with tons of new growth, then an extended dry period up north (until recently, we had over three months of literally zero rainfall, and even that wasn't much, only 5mm)so much of that new growth is now very dry indeed....

I had cleared my own firebreaks, but it was noticeable that they were literally filled with small gum saplings (mostly no thicker than my wrist, about 2m high) that had sprung up since last autumn- where previously I had been able to drive the Hilux around them, it was impossible to do so- I spent over 5 days chainsawing and dragging them out to the burn pile...

The loadings locally are even higher than the 'black summer' ones- and much of that is dead or drying out...

This is the 'cleared area' around the back of my shed- those gums didnt exist last year at this time, and the firebreaks were the same (that shed is 5m high, the gums about 3m)

ETA found this shot of the Tara fires taken from 9000 ft

 

[lionking]

Victoria might be ok (maybe) but we had a very wet year last year, with tons of new growth, then an extended dry period up north (until recently, we had over three months of literally zero rainfall, and even that wasn't much, only 5mm)so much of that new growth is now very dry indeed....

I had cleared my own firebreaks, but it was noticeable that they were literally filled with small gum saplings (mostly no thicker than my wrist, about 2m high) that had sprung up since last autumn- where previously I had been able to drive the Hilux around them, it was impossible to do so- I spent over 5 days chainsawing and dragging them out to the burn pile...

The loadings locally are even higher than the 'black summer' ones- and much of that is dead or drying out...

This is the 'cleared area' around the back of my shed- those gums didnt exist last year at this time, and the firebreaks were the same (that shed is 5m high, the gums about 3m)
[qimg]https://i.postimg.cc/Y0rYpHdC/IMG-20230919-121601.jpg[/qimg]

I’ve been clearing up as well, but the lesson we learnt from Black Saturday is that clearing around the house might help with a slow moving fire, with a massive fast moving fire front (Black Saturday’s one was 200kph) it’s not going to matter much. As I probably said earlier, we have important documents and photos near at hand, and in the event of a Code Red declaration, we are off to the city. (We are in the semi rural Diamond Valley, surrounded by thick bush).

 

[lionking]

Yes, I know it’s still early and things can dry up. But it’s raining throughout Victoria today and it’s predicted to last a week or more, with flooding expected. In Melbourne, there’s been only one spring day over 30C, with most days struggling to reach 20C. The countryside is as green as Ireland, and grass cutting and tree lopping are happening on an industrial scale.

Conditions are so far removed from other bushfire years that I’m now confident that our corner of the world will stay safe. There have been no signs of massive dust storms (Ash Wednesday) or tinder dry bush (Black Saturday).

Fingers crossed.

 

[arthwollipot]

Yeah, it rained all night here too. Lovely, if you like that sort of thing, which I very much do.

 

[The Atheist]

You're having the same spring as us, and it's weird as hell - I'm still wearing jerseys, which is the first time I can ever remember that happening in late November.

I have no idea why this El Nino is behaving differently down our corner - it seems to be working everywhere else. The really bad sign from a global perspective is that if the cold air is being pushed up here from Antarctica, it's going to be a lot warmer than normal down there.

A danger is once the rain stops, if westerly winds continue, the place will dry out in record time and there's going to be a lot of extra growth to burn.

 

[The Atheist]

Ah, it might be that El Nino doesn't even hit us until late summer or even autumn.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/expla...t-it-means-for-nz/HG232RA3RNEZJD5QGFFLEHZPJM/

Maybe we're a year early in thinking about fires. If that turned out to be the case, catastrophic won't even be close to describing it.

 

[novaphile]

It rained so much here yesterday, that I considered getting the kayak out to go shopping...

Many experienced power outages because of storm damage to power lines.

My brother called to report a tree branch had taken out the power in his area, and the branch was 20 to 30 centimetres thick at the base. (One foot for those of you that still use the old money).

The weeds in my garden have gone berserk in the last few weeks with the combination of heat and water.

 

[lionking]

I don’t want to turn this into a Melbourne weather thread, but we are very bushfire prone. Anyway, ten days in a row of rain. One more rainy day, and then a dry day forecast. Followed by another week of rain.

This is so far removed from the spring and summer the BOM forecasted.

 

[The Atheist]

If you could stop passing it on to us we'd all be very grateful. There's a massive rain band about to hit NZ tomorrow.

 

[novaphile]

I don’t want to turn this into a Melbourne weather thread, but we are very bushfire prone. Anyway, ten days in a row of rain. One more rainy day, and then a dry day forecast. Followed by another week of rain.

This is so far removed from the spring and summer the BOM forecasted.

Well... We are only three days into summer.

There's an interesting article from the BOM on ABC's website this morning.

Hot take is that our oceans are now so warm, it's harder to pick out the affect from El Nino.

They're suggesting that January/February are when things usually get 'interesting'.

Link:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-03/what-happened-to-el-nino/103179568

 

[novaphile]

Meanwhile...

There are a bunch of warnings for the Northern part of South Australia today.

Today is rated as extreme and catastrophic for fire danger, and the bureau has put out a 'Fire Weather' warning:

Weather Situation

Very hot, dry and unstable conditions with strong to gale force northwesterly winds driving Catastrophic fire dangers Friday. Widespread risk of thunderstorms, which may have little to no rainfall and bring the risk of dry lightning, thunderstorm outflows bring additional risk of gale force wind gusts. A strong southwesterly wind change is expected across the west coast during the morning, and remaining coasts later during the afternoon, moving inland during the day, fire dangers are expected to remain elevated for some time following the passage the change.

Around 36°C (96.8°F) around the metropolitan area, but,

47°C (117°F) for Woomera and Roxby Downs.

Guess who's glad that he doesn't live and work up there anymore?

 

[arthwollipot]

Heatwaves and catastrophic fire conditions are happening across the country. Here's who is on alert

Severe heat has brought temperatures in the 40s to large parts of Australia on Friday that will continue into the weekend.

A heatwave warning affects parts of every state and territory except Tasmania on Friday, with catastrophic conditions particularly in South Australia.

Firefighting bombers, over 250 crew and Black Hawk helicopters have been deployed to help extinguish dozens of blazes across that state.

Senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Sarah Scully says strong winds, dry lightning and extreme heat will increase the fire danger in three states.

31.6C here in Canberra right now. Forecast for 37 tomorrow. And my mate has conned me into going in to a LEGO brick sale at the Albert Hall.

 

[novaphile]

Riding the weather roller coaster today.

Mainly gentle rain so far and a forecast top of 17°C !

 

[arthwollipot]

Massive thunderstorm last night knocked out my internet for 12 hours.

 

[lionking]

Firstly, sympathies for those in potential danger from bushfires.

Here in Melbourne we have had above average rainfall since October. We expect about a month worth of rain over the next two days with rain predicted beyond that. I haven’t needed to water the garden at all. Floods are a much bigger threat.

So half way through summer, and I think we will totally miss this bushfire season.

 

[novaphile]

Firstly, sympathies for those in potential danger from bushfires.

Here in Melbourne we have had above average rainfall since October. We expect about a month worth of rain over the next two days with rain predicted beyond that. I haven’t needed to water the garden at all. Floods are a much bigger threat.

So half way through summer, and I think we will totally miss this bushfire season.

I hope you're right, I really do.

I'm currently fighting weeds in my yard, some of which are as tall as me, and I can only imagine what this heat and rainfall is doing to increase the fuel load out there, where it matters.

For us, the peak of summer heat is typically around the end of February and sometimes into March, so I won't be breathing a sigh of relief for a while.

 

[arthwollipot]

Yeah, we're only halfway through the summer so far, and today here in Canberra it has been raining since the middle of last night.

 

[lionking]

I hope you're right, I really do.

I'm currently fighting weeds in my yard, some of which are as tall as me, and I can only imagine what this heat and rainfall is doing to increase the fuel load out there, where it matters.

For us, the peak of summer heat is typically around the end of February and sometimes into March, so I won't be breathing a sigh of relief for a while.

In any case the BOM was way out with their prediction of a hot, dry summer in Victoria. We almost have our usual summer rainfall already.

The bureau predicted Victoria was very likely to have below-average rainfall over the next three months and unseasonably warm daytime and nighttime temperatures. The west and south of Victoria were most likely to experience the drier conditions.

 

[Orphia Nay]

People evacuated and property losses expected at Beaufort, Western Victoria.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02...-tasmania-central-highlands-weather/103501294

 

[novaphile]

Western Australia is also dealing with a fairly large fire.

Problematic because it has closed the only freight route in and out of the State.

An estimated 160 trucks are parked up at Caiguna and there are 100 at Norseman.

The fire was first reported on February 7 but was upgraded to Watch and Act level on Wednesday as a heatwave spread across WA's Goldfields region, with temperatures hitting a high of 44.6 degrees Celsius at Norseman.

More than 20,000 hectares of the Great Western Woodlands — the largest temperate woodland left on Earth — has been destroyed.

The cause of the fire is yet to be determined.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-22/wa-balladonia-bushfire-closed-eyre-highway-sa/103498586