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Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread

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1) Unless you live in a swing state, your vote for president doesn't really matter anyway. If you live in a red state, support will go to Republicans; if you live in a blue state, support will go to Democrats. It doesn't matter who you vote for. And if it doesn't matter who you vote for, why not vote your preference?

Since your vote is just one out of a couple hundred millions, I'd say that logic applies to all votes: each one doesn't matter individually.

2) If Democrats think that they are guaranteed your vote, they have no reason to take your concerns seriously.

They don't take individual concerns seriously one way or another. That isn't the point.

3) Voting for the "lesser evil" is what got us into this situation in the third place.

Doesn't it depend on your choice?

4) It's undemocratic for me to be scared into voting against my best interests.

That's nonsense. You vote. That's democratic regardless of who you vote for or why.

I think that principles are important.

Of course they are. But if following your principles result in a worse scenario than not, I would certainly understand why you'd choose to do something different -- for pragmatic reasons.
 
Bernie major problem is that up till now he hasn't been showing enough strength to get him there.

In the 28 States that have decided only 6 times has he achieved to better the Target Values he needs based on his demographics in each state*, and those 6 States gained him just 18 extra Delegates. His loss in just Texas eclipses that gain.

Hillary has only missed bettering her targets 10 times missing out on the 18 Delegates that Bernie took off her. She counters that with just the wins in Mississippi and Georgia, the other 16 wins are gravy.

The other issue is that based on demographics, Bernie's targets for the 29 remain contests are mostly higher than Clinton's. With the 4 overseas groups (Democrats Abroad, Guam, The Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico) all matched equaling in Targets, of the last 25, Clinton only needs to actually win 4 of them (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia) and she can still hit the targets she needs to win. Bernie not only need to will those 25 contests, but at a higher rate than the demographics indicate that he should, and so far he's only hit the 60% mark with Delegates he needs 4 out of 9 wins.

It also shows in the loses with Clinton hitting her Targets for 4 of 9 of her loses, while Bernie on hit his targets twice out of his 19 loses.

The stats aren't on his side, no matter how you try and spin them.




As determined by FiveThirtyEight
 
I agree but it doesn't change the fact that you can make it even less effective by voting for a no-chance candidate.

No comment on the rest of my post where I argue that there could be a larger impact on the political landscape from a no-chance candidate getting an extra vote (or a million) than a major party candidate? Think how much things would change if there was a viable 3rd party. Or a 3rd party whose ideas get absorbed into a major party's platform.
 
No comment on the rest of my post where I argue that there could be a larger impact on the political landscape from a no-chance candidate getting an extra vote (or a million) than a major party candidate?

I read your post and am under no obligation to answer every single sentence. I used this one as a summary and am responding to your point. Now, do you want to continue this discussion or find another reason to complain?
 
I read your post and am under no obligation to answer every single sentence. I used this one as a summary and am responding to your point. Now, do you want to continue this discussion or find another reason to complain?

No.
 
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Bernie stands no chance at all (unless something happens to Hillary) at getting a majority of the pledged delegates. He would have to win 58% of the rest of the delegates for that to happen. He won't and believing otherwise is simply wishful thinkingm
This.

It has to be repeated:A vote for a Third Party Candidate this year is a de facto vote for Trump.
Normally I don't mind protest votes, but Trump is a clear and present danger,the most dangerous political figute we have seen in our lifetime
Unless Trump is the third party option.
 
I agree but it doesn't change the fact that you can make it even less effective by voting for a no-chance candidate.

Effective at what? selecting the winner? Isn't the goal to select the candidate you think would be the best candidate? Selecting a winner that takes the nation in a direction you think is the wrong direction is not an effective vote either. What is your best choice if both candidates that are likely to win are taking the nation in wrong directions and by choosing one of them you demonstrate to both of the parties that you really don't care what direction the nation is headed you'll still vote for one of their candidates? The party doesn't care what you think or believe as long as you vote for their candidates. Justifications and rationalizations are your problem they just want your vote. As long as they get it, they aren't gong to change anything.
 
The only responsibility the voter has is to vote for his best interest as he sees and understands it, consistently and chronically.

Hey, that's my line.

Effective at what? selecting the winner?

Effective at effecting government.

Isn't the goal to select the candidate you think would be the best candidate?

As I've already told you: in principle yes. Sometimes however you have to accept more pragmatic considerations.

Selecting a winner that takes the nation in a direction you think is the wrong direction is not an effective vote either. What is your best choice if both candidates that are likely to win are taking the nation in wrong directions and by choosing one of them you demonstrate to both of the parties that you really don't care what direction the nation is headed you'll still vote for one of their candidates?

You have zero preference between Clinton and Trump?
 
Yeah, he has won some small states by big margins. So what. He is still losing. By a lot.


He's losing by less than 20% at this point. With half the US to go, and several of the biggest states still awaiting their primaries, declaring victory or loss is highly premature, and smacks of either ideological necessity, or blind cynicism.

It helps to keep in mind that the majority of the remaining states, NY excepted, are places that are much more likely to lean in Bernie's direction, especially the Left Coast. Hillary won big in the South, but no on expected any different being that the South is her biggest stronghold, and was effectively guaranteed to go her direction. Even so, a couple of the races were still much closer than expected. Outside the South, her wins have been much more tenuous, and I think we'll see that lead continue to erode as the race moves west and north.

Will it be enough? It's still far too soon to tell. Will it be enough to overshadow the superdelegate lead? No, that's highly unlikely, and I think that's what it going to come down to. Are the superdelegates going to mirror the popular vote as they have in the past, or are they going to vote the way the big money interests want?
 
You think that Hillary would sign a bill gutting the ACA, for example? Nonsense.

I'm sure the Republicans would absolutely love it the Greens become a third major party. It would make it much easier for them to win. You ever think about that?


You're assuming that the GOP will also be able to remain unified. That flies in the face of all the clear and present evidence. A sizable chunk of the GOP is currently making noises about splitting off into a third party themselves; and they are far more noisy about it than the Dems are. A lot of the party is unhappy with the way that the party is increasingly pandering to the religious nutcases and the racist hicks; and a small but sizeable chunk of those have also made noises about switching to the Dems for this election.

Extremists on both sides of the left/right spectrum rarely ever vote for the big two parties anyway, and are unlikely to be part of the current third-party movement. Right now, we're seeing the same populist/establishment split in both parties. Putting a Trump/Cruz win at the feet of the Greens is just as ignorant as putting the 1992 Bill Clinton win at the feet of Reform. If the Dems fail to mobilize sufficient votes to beat Trump/Cruz, that's because they've drifted too far to the right to engage the progressive left. That's the failure of the party, not the voters.
 
Should I not do the right thing because others refuse to do the right thing? I don't know why you're lecturing me. I didn't set this system up. I'm just doing my part to make it better. If others refuse to help, that's on them. Personally, I think that your refusal to help us is making our country worse, but I recognize that as your right and your choice. I don't think that your choice is a good one, but I will not get up on a high horse and judge you for your decision.


The problem with American politics right now is that it has become mired in a particular mode of thinking, a mode of thinking rooted in fear and complacency, and it is very difficult to break out of that mode.

It's painfully clear watching the interplay in this thread and elsewhere that the Democratic party supporters have become very cynical, and are unhappy with anything that challenges their cynicism. Everyone knows that the party establishment in both of the major parties is controlled more by Wall Street than by the people. They complain about it constantly, but they still prop up the system that allows that situation to continue, because they have become so locked into the mindset that they cannot even conceive of an alternative. Voters have gotten so used to voting for evil out of sheer terror of an alternate even (one cannot even always call it a greater evil), that they are uncomfortable with the idea of a truly idealistic candidate, a candidate that is not actually evil.

Likewise, humans are programmed by evolution to prefer the familiar. Even when the familiar is abusive, harmful, even outright self-destructive, we still stick with it because change is even more frightening to the vast majority of us. We realize what we are doing, and through a collective cognitive dissonance, we create elaborate justifications for supporting a familiar we dislike, and opposing a change to something better. The "lesser evil" justification is just one of many, but the most obvious and effective. It takes a feeling of utter desperation to motivate people to make the effort to really change their circumstances and mindset. The most cynical tend to describe this as "pragmatism", and deride principled voters as unrealistic idealists.

We can see this reflected in the steadily decreasing voter turnouts. Overall, less than 60% of Americans vote in presidential elections, and 40% in mid-term election. By state, this looks even worse. In 2014, half the states had less than half the eligible voters turn out. There are many reasons for this, but the main one is simply people being afraid to fight against the familiar, and a sense of hopelessness resulting from being continually presented with a choice of evil vs. evil vs. "unelectable" good. It's clear from the numbers that a good candidate could be electable, if able to sufficiently motivate the voters and break through their cynicism and fear. We're seeing the beginnings of that with Sanders' campaign. Even if he fails to get elected, he has already proven that people can and will respond to such a candidate; and even a failure opens up opportunities for similar candidates in the future. Whether those opportunities lead to improvements, or are squandered through continued fearmongering and apathy, only history will determine. We've seen changes for the good happen before, and I'm willing to believe that we have not all become so cynical that it could not happen again.
 
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Effective at effecting government.

Affecting. Your target noun is an object affected, not an effect produced.

...unless you mean governance rather than government, which effects (results in) a different meaning than the one assumed.

[/pedant]

Sorry. I couldn't help myself.
 
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He's losing by less than 20% at this point. With half the US to go, and several of the biggest states still awaiting their primaries, declaring victory or loss is highly premature, and smacks of either ideological necessity, or blind cynicism.

Or an awareness of demographics and polling in the remaining contests.

It helps to keep in mind that the majority of the remaining states, NY excepted, are places that are much more likely to lean in Bernie's direction, especially the Left Coast. Hillary won big in the South, but no on expected any different being that the South is her biggest stronghold, and was effectively guaranteed to go her direction. Even so, a couple of the races were still much closer than expected. Outside the South, her wins have been much more tenuous, and I think we'll see that lead continue to erode as the race moves west and north.

Since when is Ohio a southern state? On top of that, Clinton is polling ahead of Sanders in CA (left coast) by an average of +13.5

Will it be enough? It's still far too soon to tell. Will it be enough to overshadow the superdelegate lead? No, that's highly unlikely, and I think that's what it going to come down to. Are the superdelegates going to mirror the popular vote as they have in the past, or are they going to vote the way the big money interests want?

They are probably going to mirror the popular vote, which means Clinton gets them. Why would you think that big money interests would want them to ignore the popular vote and pick Sanders?
 
No comment on the rest of my post where I argue that there could be a larger impact on the political landscape from a no-chance candidate getting an extra vote (or a million) than a major party candidate? Think how much things would change if there was a viable 3rd party. Or a 3rd party whose ideas get absorbed into a major party's platform.
Typical mathematical masturbation. When reality is uncomfortable, use math to make a worthless point.
 
As far as third parties go, I'm all for third parties running for state and federal legislator spots. I'm not a big fan of third parties running for president without even winning a congressional election first though. I'll still vote for The Greens now and then as a protest vote, but they really sort of need to grow from the bottom up.
 
Why won't I do the same?

Because it is a clear, irrefutable fact that lefties voting third party/not voting helps radical right wing Republicans. Jill Stein has the same chance of being a elected President as I do. Though if enough people vote for her, it could swing the election to the GOP. Yeah, fantastic outcome.

Well, it's obvious that there's no point in arguing with you further. I find it funny that you think I should be guilty for my vote when you directly support the people who are destroying the country's economy and committing war crimes.

Oh, and if the GOP succeeds in gutting the ACA, they are not going to replace it with anything. Because they simply do not care about millions of people losing health insurance. Neither, apparently, do many "progressives".

What nonsense. I benefit from the ACA. Of course I care if Republicans take away my healthcare.

They don't take individual concerns seriously one way or another. That isn't the point.

I'm not talking about individual concerns. I guess I should've used "our" instead of "your".

Doesn't it depend on your choice?

It absolutely does. That's my point.

That's nonsense. You vote. That's democratic regardless of who you vote for or why.

If it is democratic, then I can vote for whoever I want, and Tony Stark's argument is completely invalid.

Of course they are. But if following your principles result in a worse scenario than not, I would certainly understand why you'd choose to do something different -- for pragmatic reasons.

Yeah. I frankly don't buy into the Democratic Party's fear-mongering. W. Bush was president for 8 years. The world did not end. Yes, some bad things happened, but guess what? A lot of those, like the Iraq War, the Democrats supported. Then they'll turn around and tell me I should feel guilty for the Iraq War when they directly supported it. Completely shameless and hypocritical.

Both parties are so scared of Trump right now that they're unabashedly comparing him to Hitler. Yes, Hitler! If Sanders was winning, we'd be hearing about how he's the second coming of Stalin. It's nonsense.
 
This country is so weird over what it feels outraged by. If the email investigation uncovers a photo of Hillary kicking a kitten, she might be done. If she runs weapons to head choppers and they run amok across four countries - nice try. Try again: bombs, sanctions, drones. I can't wait.

It seems to be an amazing sort of nationalism. Their valuation is based on "American" versus "not American." Hillary might slaughter half the world and it would make no difference, but if she lets head choppers run amok in America they'd revolt against her.

It's ingrained in the culture, for instance when talking about casualties they'll automatically think about it in terms of American casualties only. I've also once noticed - on a scientific forum - a ritual they apparently do each year, in which the soldiers among the group stand forward and the rest of the group start praising them. They also seem to have no notion of this nationalism, I was once considered a "nationalist" because I stated that the US was the aggressor in the Iraq war - nothing more than that - which my American interlocutor decided was "insensitive to his nation" after which the group generally agreed that made me a "nationalist."

Anyway, so much for my observations of Americans on the same forums I've been. Anecdotal as it may be, such a mix of nationalism and militarism is never any good though.
 
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