Brexit: the referendum

[aleCcowaN]

 

[ceptimus]

Osborne appears to have hidden himself away. No sign of his lauded 'post Brexit budget' so far - but of course he wasn't lying at all when he threatened us with it so I guess it may still happen some time next week.

Good riddance to Cameron. I wonder what he'll do next? He could take up pig farming where he would be a perfect fit.

Farage should be given some sort of government job as a reward for his tireless campaigning over the last twenty five years without which this referendum wouldn't have happened yet.

There's a good chance now that other countries will want to exit the EU before Sturgeon gets around to her next referendum. We'll have wait to see if the Scots still want to sever themselves from the UK (while attempting to keep the pound governed by the Bank of England) and keep themselves in what remains of the EU. If the Scots do decide to leave the UK, I shall wish them good luck - but I'll also be glad that they're no longer a financial burden on English taxpayers.

I don't see Northern Ireland or Wales wanting to leave the UK at this time, but of course as events unfold that may yet change.

Corbyn was always anti-EU and would most likely have campaigned to Leave had he not been elected as the Labour leader. He was pressured by his MPs and union leaders into supporting Remain. If only those MPs and union leaders had actually listened to their voters and members, then Labour could have been on the winning side of this referendum. Now those same MPs want to eject Corbyn as leader. I hope they do and that Corbyn stands again in the next leadership election and again wins overwhelming majority support. It seems that Labour MPs are so thick-headed and unaware of what their supporters want that they need to be repeatedly humiliated into either modifying their views or joining or forming some other political party where they can live on in unelectable obscurity.

 

[crescent]

Voters should not directly vote on complex issues. It never turns out well.

For things like independence votes, I could see referendums working but only if the actual act were the result of consistent results through a series of referendums over time. Imagine a "Best of Three" scenario with the three elections occurring a year or two apart from one another.

As it is, Pound and stocks are dropping, Scotland is looking at independence again, there are rumbling of Independence for Northern Ireland, British control of Gibraltar is being challenged again, I am guessing the Argentina will bring up the Falklands/Maldives issue again, and more issues will pop up over the next few says and weeks.

I am not surprised that a number of people are already expressing regret over "leave" votes. A single election may not be a good barometer of national opinion for such issues. The Scots may express this best if they reverse the results of the 2014 independence referendum.

 

[lobosrul]

One commentator on CNN said Britian is now more divided then at any time since the days of King Charles The First and Oliver Cromwell......

Well since you said Britain and not England, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they were a bit more divided during the Jacobite rebellion than now. That was about a century more recent than their last civil war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobite_rising_of_1745

 

[Klimax]

Osborne appears to have hidden himself away. No sign of his lauded 'post Brexit budget' so far - but of course he wasn't lying at all when he threatened us with it so I guess it may still happen some time next week.

Good riddance to Cameron. I wonder what he'll do next? He could take up pig farming where he would be a perfect fit.

Farage should be given some sort of government job as a reward for his tireless campaigning over the last twenty five years without which this referendum wouldn't have happened yet.

There's a good chance now that other countries will want to exit the EU before Sturgeon gets around to her next referendum. We'll have wait to see if the Scots still want to sever themselves from the UK (while attempting to keep the pound governed by the Bank of England) and keep themselves in what remains of the EU. If the Scots do decide to leave the UK, I shall wish them good luck - but I'll also be glad that they're no longer a financial burden on English taxpayers.

I don't see Northern Ireland or Wales wanting to leave the UK at this time, but of course as events unfold that may yet change.

Corbyn was always anti-EU and would most likely have campaigned to Leave had he not been elected as the Labour leader. He was pressured by his MPs and union leaders into supporting Remain. If only those MPs and union leaders had actually listened to their voters and members, then Labour could have been on the winning side of this referendum. Now those same MPs want to eject Corbyn as leader. I hope they do and that Corbyn stands again in the next leadership election and again wins overwhelming majority support. It seems that Labour MPs are so thick-headed and unaware of what their supporters want that they need to be repeatedly humiliated into either modifying their views or joining or forming some other political party where they can live on in unelectable obscurity.

Thinking there is some big movement to exit EU is so far delusional. Any idiot can call for it, but that only means he got somehow to "megaphone"...

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

Osborne appears to have hidden himself away. No sign of his lauded 'post Brexit budget' so far - but of course he wasn't lying at all when he threatened us with it so I guess it may still happen some time next week.

Good riddance to Cameron. I wonder what he'll do next? He could take up pig farming where he would be a perfect fit.

Farage should be given some sort of government job as a reward for his tireless campaigning over the last twenty five years without which this referendum wouldn't have happened yet.

There's a good chance now that other countries will want to exit the EU before Sturgeon gets around to her next referendum. We'll have wait to see if the Scots still want to sever themselves from the UK (while attempting to keep the pound governed by the Bank of England) and keep themselves in what remains of the EU. If the Scots do decide to leave the UK, I shall wish them good luck - but I'll also be glad that they're no longer a financial burden on English taxpayers.

I don't see Northern Ireland or Wales wanting to leave the UK at this time, but of course as events unfold that may yet change.

Corbyn was always anti-EU and would most likely have campaigned to Leave had he not been elected as the Labour leader. He was pressured by his MPs and union leaders into supporting Remain. If only those MPs and union leaders had actually listened to their voters and members, then Labour could have been on the winning side of this referendum. Now those same MPs want to eject Corbyn as leader. I hope they do and that Corbyn stands again in the next leadership election and again wins overwhelming majority support. It seems that Labour MPs are so thick-headed and unaware of what their supporters want that they need to be repeatedly humiliated into either modifying their views or joining or forming some other political party where they can live on in unelectable obscurity.

Ah, now I understand how my countrymen made such a foolish decision. I always wondered what sort of person could possibly do anything other than loathe Farage...

 

[Caper]

Yeah, the hysteria and "hell in a handcart" stuff around Brexit is pretty much all hyperbole.

I am very confident that the UK would, on the whole, have been better off remaining within the EU. The benefits would have significantly outweighed any negative factors. But, importantly, that's not to say that the UK is completely screwed now that it's opted for Brexit - it merely means that the UK will (IMO) be simply comparatively worse off than if it had stayed in the EU.

In a way, this reminds me of the last Scottish Independence Referendum. No serious commentator was suggesting that an independent Scotland would find itself in huge (and potentially fatal) economic/political trouble - it was just that an independent Scotland would be comparatively worse off economically/politically than a Scotland which remained in the UK.

I'm astounded by the result, and very saddened by it. And while I absolutely subscribe to liberal democracy, one has to ponder whether decisions with complex permutations and dramatically important outcomes should be put to referendum. I happen to believe, in the case of this particular referendum, that large swathes of the voting population were either poorly/insufficiently informed or incapable of performing the necessary intellectual analysis to come to a reasonable (and reasoned) decision.

I realise this could sound incredibly arrogant, condescending and "sour loser"-ish. But - just as in, say, the OJ Simpson murder trial, where the jurors subsequently indicated in interviews etc that they simply hadn't grasped the evidence of the trial properly - I think there's already growing evidence that a significant proportion of "Leave" voters did not properly understand what it was they were voting for (and against).

To extend the jury analogy, in England and Wales, there's an ongoing debate about whether complex technical trials (typically those involving complicated alleged financial criminality) should be tried by "ordinary" juries selected from the entire general public. A number of such trials have descended into a form of black farce where the jurors simply haven't been able to understand what's going on, and have thus had pretty much no option but to acquit regardless of the genuine strength of the prosecution. Perhaps (after a long pause for sober reflection) it's time to debate maturely and sensibly whether questions of such huge complexity and finality as whether the UK should leave the EU or remain within it should be entrusted to the public in referendums.

(And I would address a rebuttal in the form of "well it was incumbent upon politicians, journalists and business/employee leaders to provide voters with all the necessary information to allow them to make a reasoned and informed decision, so it's the fault of those groups if people really did make improperly-informed decisions" with two contentions: 1) no matter how long and hard anyone tried to push out information, it was still in clear danger of "going in one ear and out the other" with large swathes of the UK population - and there's already evidence to suggest this was the case; and 2) even for those who did properly assimilate the information, a significant proportion of them probably still lacked the wider contextual understanding and reasoning abilities to enable them to make a properly-reasoned decision.)



Oh, and of course I was stunningly wrong with my prediction of the outcome. I suppose I just had more faith in the abilities of the UK population (as a whole) to make properly-informed and properly-reasoned decisions. Oh well......

Either way. If 50% of your population does not like the current set up (I would even imagine higher since I suspect a decent percentage of the Remain side also has significant reservations) then you have serious issues.

 

[The Atheist]

Either way. If 50% of your population does not like the current set up (I would even imagine higher since I suspect a decent percentage of the Remain side also has significant reservations) then you have serious issues.

No, I think you'd find in the real world that 60% of voters didn't understand the issue, or were mis-/ill-informed being more of the problem.

The overwhelming majority of Remain votes from within youth, Scots, N Irish and Gibraltans displays fairly well that those with regard to the future voted with a lot more common sense and rationality than the lunatic grey-hairs and those influenced by the insanity of UKIP.

Alas, as noted all round, Labour & Corbyn must share the blame.

I'm reminded of my good friend Jesus at times like these.

As ye sow, so shall ye reap.

Better sharpen those scythes.

 

[Francesca R]

It's actually a better proposition now that the alternative is stay in the UK outside the EU because the economic benefit of EU membership falls only to the independence side of the equation.

I know you were getting at the low oil price but the oil price is outwith our control and so we would have had to cope with the same low price regardless. Its probably a harder sell now, but the reality of the financial proposition has just improved significantly.

One factor is the low oil price

Another (linked) is that Scotland's budget deficit is now far too high to meet EMU criteria, implying large tax rises and spending cuts that are not appealing to the SNP

The third is its currency which will not be the pound and probably can not be the euro on day one either.

But none of these problems will prevent Sturgeon having an indyref if she believes it will be a clear win.

Anyway this is best discussed in the thread you made.

 

[Ambrosia]

No, just the remain ones thanks. I'd like to see them.

OK fine. Here is one.

The treasury came up with this claim early in the campaign. It's oddly specific and given that it's based on a lot of assumptions, at best it's wildly inaccurate.

Yes we will be worse off in the sort term, but economic forecasts for 15 years from now are rarely correct.

Didn't stop them from repeating this nonsense a lot. That's one of the lies. There were others too. Mostly exaggerations of how great the cost of Brexit would be.

I won't be posting more links about campaign claims or arguing further about them. It's a pointless exercise imo.

That's not what I was saying. What I was pointing out was your immense hubris in deciding, with no expertise whatsoever that things wouldn't be as bad as predicted by those who actually study the subject.

As it happens I got advice from a close friend who works in finance in London, who's made 10x the money I have, whose opinion I value. It's a bit hard to link to conversations I had with him though.

Feel free to continue dismissing me as an idiot.

 

[Nessie]

The Best of British “Leave” Voters Realizing They’ve Made a Huge Mistake



The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it

Cornwall pleas for reassurance it will not be 'worse off' following Brexit vote

 

[Klimax]

The Best of British “Leave” Voters Realizing They’ve Made a Huge Mistake



The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it

Cornwall pleas for reassurance it will not be 'worse off' following Brexit vote

Didn't know Brexit can turn into such tragicomical event...

 

[3point14]

OK fine. Here is one.

Thank you. I'll have to read the paper, so it'll take a while to come back to you.

The treasury came up with this claim early in the campaign. It's oddly specific and given that it's based on a lot of assumptions, at best it's wildly inaccurate.

Yes we will be worse off in the sort term, but economic forecasts for 15 years from now are rarely correct.

Didn't stop them from repeating this nonsense a lot. That's one of the lies. There were others too. Mostly exaggerations of how great the cost of Brexit would be.

I won't be posting more links about campaign claims or arguing further about them. It's a pointless exercise imo.

to be fair, I didn't really demand anything other than you back up what you were saying.

As it happens I got advice from a close friend who works in finance in London, who's made 10x the money I have, whose opinion I value. It's a bit hard to link to conversations I had with him though.

It is, isn't it? I assume your friend has some sort of background in international finance. If he's an underwriter then he's not really going to be any better at this than you or I.

Feel free to continue dismissing me as an idiot.

After the events of last night, dismissing idiots is a fools game. They appear to have quite an impact on the political landscape.

 

[jimbob]

No, I think you'd find in the real world that 60% of voters didn't understand the issue, or were mis-/ill-informed being more of the problem.

The overwhelming majority of Remain votes from within youth, Scots, N Irish and Gibraltans displays fairly well that those with regard to the future voted with a lot more common sense and rationality than the lunatic grey-hairs and those influenced by the insanity of UKIP.

Alas, as noted all round, Labour & Corbyn must share the blame.
I'm reminded of my good friend Jesus at times like these.

As ye sow, so shall ye reap.

Better sharpen those scythes.

Corbyn is pretty Eurosceptic, as are a lot of the Left wing.

 

[Giz]

Ye I happen to believe, in the case of this particular referendum, that large swathes of the voting population were either poorly/insufficiently informed or incapable of performing the necessary intellectual analysis to come to a reasonable (and reasoned) decision.

I realise this could sound incredibly arrogant, condescending and "sour loser"-ish. But - just as in, say, the OJ Simpson murder trial, where the jurors subsequently indicated in interviews etc that they simply hadn't grasped the evidence of the trial properly - I think there's already growing evidence that a significant proportion of "Leave" voters did not properly understand what it was they were voting for (and against).

To extend the jury analogy, in England and Wales, there's an ongoing debate about whether complex technical trials (typically those involving complicated alleged financial criminality) should be tried by "ordinary" juries selected from the entire general public. A number of such trials have descended into a form of black farce where the jurors simply haven't been able to understand what's going on, and have thus had pretty much no option but to acquit regardless of the genuine strength of the prosecution. Perhaps (after a long pause for sober reflection) it's time to debate maturely and sensibly whether questions of such huge complexity and finality as whether the UK should leave the EU or remain within it should be entrusted to the public in referendums.

This would logically result in a 2-tier citizenry, correct?

Those who can score greater than X on some kind of metric (test or education or income) who are eligible to vote, to serve on juries, etc.
Then there would be the others... who would be permitted to vote on 'Britain's Got Talent'.

Whilst undoubtedly meritocratic, it also sounds terribly dystopian.

 

[3point14]

This would logically result in a 2-tier citizenry, correct?

Those who can score greater than X on some kind of metric (test or education or income) who are eligible to vote, to serve on juries, etc.
Then there would be the others... who would be permitted to vote on 'Britain's Got Talent'.

Whilst undoubtedly meritocratic, it also sounds terribly dystopian.

“Vimes had once discussed the Ephebian idea of ‘democracy’ with Carrot, and had been rather interested in the idea that everyone had a vote until he found out that while he, Vimes, would have a vote, there was no way in the rules that anyone could prevent Nobby Nobbs from having one as well. Vimes could see the flaw there straight away.”

― Terry Pratchett, The Fifth Elephant

 

[Stuart]

An excellent example of the kind of "The EU is useless and crazy" story which goes down so well with a Eurosceptic audience. Never mind that manufacturers have been making ever grander power consumption claims for their appliances without them actually being any more effective (my Euro-compliant 620W Numatic Harry has far more "suck" than the 1600W Vax it replaced), we don't want more efficient appliances

Of course what is hardly ever acknowledged is how other EU environmental legislation now means that most British beaches are safe to bathe at. Until the late 90's (the UK as usual got to flout the rules for longer than other countries) we were pumping raw sewage into the sea. A surfer or bather encountering a "floater" was unfortunately common. The UK was dragged kicking and screaming into it but now we're justifiably proud of our beaches and the tourism that it helps to generate.

Won't mention the wildlife protect, drinking water standards.. . .
Sounds a bit like a Monty Python sketch really

 

[catsmate]

“Vimes had once discussed the Ephebian idea of ‘democracy’ with Carrot, and had been rather interested in the idea that everyone had a vote until he found out that while he, Vimes, would have a vote, there was no way in the rules that anyone could prevent Nobby Nobbs from having one as well. Vimes could see the flaw there straight away.”

― Terry Pratchett, The Fifth Elephant

That was my reaction too.
Perhaps it's time for the UK to bring back plural voting? After all it's not that long since it was abolished.

 

[GlennB]

“Vimes had once discussed the Ephebian idea of ‘democracy’ with Carrot, and had been rather interested in the idea that everyone had a vote until he found out that while he, Vimes, would have a vote, there was no way in the rules that anyone could prevent Nobby Nobbs from having one as well. Vimes could see the flaw there straight away.”

― Terry Pratchett, The Fifth Elephant

 

[dudalb]

I am beginning to think that Heinlein was right when he said it was a mistake to allow someone the power of the franchise simply because they can avoid being killed before reaching the age of 18.......