Brexit: the referendum

The Don said:
Cameron to go.......

....******** Prime Minister Johnson :mad:
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gypsyjackson said:
I think the Tory party would block that, and a less divisive person would get it.

But given my recent predictions, he'll probably get 4 terms.
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I agree. Too many knives at the ready with Boris's name on them? My money's on May, though Johnson's day will come I dare say.
 
Puppycow said:
Gap is large enough that even if 100% of Scottish voters who voted had voted to remain, they still would have been outvoted.
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Incorrect. If the 1,018,322 Scottish Leave votes had gone for Remain, it would have won on a 51.1%/48.9% split.

What gets me is that if the actual split had been reverse, there would have been calls for renegotitation, anyway, on the strength of the size of the large minority, and then probably another referendum on the back of that. As it is, we've been screwed by 37% of the electorate.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
I don't think anything has changed substantially with respect to ii other than whether the SNP would WANT to keep the pound.
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They certainly wanted to last time, and presumably not because of its "european-ness" because the euro would have been the choice there as well.

The SNP never tried to sell joining the euro, using the pound without any influence on policy or creating a new currency . . . to their electorate

Seems they would have to go with one of those.

Or otherwise be able to claim credibly that the RUK (that was no longer in the EU) would have to allow a Scotland (that wanted to rejoin the EU) to have a currency union with it. Can not see that happening.
 
gypsyjackson said:
I said earlier I wanted to see some demographic breakdowns, and the Guardian has the first I've noticed: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...un/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis

Done by looking at constituency trends, rather than individuals. Will play into the anti-elite narrative.
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Very interesting and not unexpected. You're more likely to vote Leave if you're...

- Poorly educated
- Old
- Poor

..... and of course there are inter-dependencies between those, you're more likely to be poor if you're old or poorly educated.

These are the people who have seen the biggest impact from austerity and they're also likely to bear the brunt of any fallout from Brexit having the least resources to weather the choppy waters and the fewest options open to them.
 
Francesca R said:
They certainly wanted to last time, and presumably not because of its "european-ness" because the euro would have been the choice there as well.

The SNP never tried to sell joining the euro, using the pound without any influence on policy or creating a new currency . . . to their electorate

Seems they would have to go with one of those.

Or otherwise be able to claim credibly that the RUK (that was no longer in the EU) would have to allow a Scotland (that wanted to rejoin the EU) to have a currency union with it. Can not see that happening.
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As I said, nothing significant has changed.

I doubt Scotland would be allowed to rejoin the EU without joining the Eurozone but re-joining is not being discussed. Not leaving is what is proposed.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
As I said, nothing significant has changed.
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What's changed is that the country Scotland wants to have an FX union with will not be in the EU, and Scotland will want to be in the EU.

I think that is significant, and that it may be far more non credible to claim that independent Scotland could keep the pound in the new circumstances. Not that it was very credible before (and I am sure the UK would rule it out as vehemently as before).

I think the SNP would need another proposal of the ones I gave above. And that these have not become any more preferable
 
Francesca R said:
Don't think the old have seen the biggest impact, rather the reverse.
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You're right, the triple lock has meant that pensioners have done less badly than most financially. OTOH they are also among the main consumers of local services which have been squeezed so badly by austerity measure.

If my Father is typical then the increases he's seen in his pension (which were in any case an irrelevance given his comparatively comfortable occupational pension) have more than been offset by cuts to his local services, at least as far as impact on his quality of life goes....
 
The Don said:
tbh IMO there's some truth in this.

Among the many groups who voted Leave were a large number of "traditional Labour voters" - working class people who really haven't seen any improvement in their circumstances and who have been hit really, really hard by the government's austerity programme. They've been repeatedly told that it's all the EU's fault and in particular it's the influx of EU migrants who are driving down wages and causing strain on local services.

The Labour Party could have, should have, put out a strong, positive, pro-EU message highlighting everything that the EU does for "hard working Britains". Instead, because the leader was a reluctant Remain supporter (albeit his reasons for being anti-EU were diametrically opposed to most Leave supporters) and because of the overwhelmingly negative messaging of the Remain campaign, there wasn't a clear, positive message from the party.

Indeed Jeremy Corbyn's measured style and calm demeanour means that he comes across as lukewarm even when talking about subjects about which he is passionate.
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This morning Caroline Lucas was saying words to the effect that a lot of people were constantly hearing about how much the country benefited from EU membership, but it wasn't filtering down to their level. Rather than blaming successive govvernments here, they blamed the EU.
 
BTW my local authority (Islington) was 75% remain. It's Johnson's too)

But as that and Camden and Hackney were reporting the leave gap was still widening
 
Francesca R said:
BTW my local authority (Islington) was 75% remain. It's Johnson's too)

But as that and Camden and Hackney were reporting the leave gap was still widening
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I - for my sins - am in Lewisham, with 70% for Remain. What is curious is that with the exception of our house, and one two doors along, nobody was sporting any Remain posters, and only one - a old guy we jovially refer to as "Mr Racist" - had (copious) Leave posters up.
 
There were few posters in my neighbourhood, Boris did not have one, he just had cameras outside his house on a regular basis (and still does)
 
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