Brexit: the referendum

[Francesca R]

My sister and her husband (who is French) are talking of moving to France permanently because of this vote.

Scenario: Marine Le Pen gets into the second round runoff against Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy promises an EU in/out referendum in the first half of his term in order to be more sure of defeating her. Sarkozy wins presidency. Then referendum vote is Frexit.

Can't hide from populism . . . Public opinion in France is (I think) the same way as Britain if not more.

 

[lionking]

I am devastated. In 2012 we were so welcoming and put on those fantastic Olympics, the whole country came together. Now we've torn ourselves apart, wrecked our economy almost overnight, got a PM who has resigned (though he's staying until Oct, so he's a lame duck until then), an ineffectual opposition and the rest of the world thinks we are a bunch of isolationists. Scotland will push for a second referendum and I think that Independence would win this time. Wales voted to leave despite the huge funding they get from the EU - it's like turkeys voting for Christmas.

For the first time ever, I'm thinking that splitting the Union into four might not be such a bad thing.

ETA My sister and her husband (who is French) are talking of moving to France permanently because of this vote.

I feel for you. I'm obviously far removed but still feel sad about this vote. Racism has played a part in this.

 

[Francesca R]

The problem any Labour leader has to face is that of a hostile, predominantly right-wing press.

Some recent conservative leaders have had to face that and a hostile left wing press as well #NoFriends

 

[3point14]

I am devastated. In 2012 we were so welcoming and put on those fantastic Olympics, the whole country came together. Now we've torn ourselves apart, wrecked our economy almost overnight, got a PM who has resigned (though he's staying until Oct, so he's a lame duck until then), an ineffectual opposition and the rest of the world thinks we are a bunch of isolationists. Scotland will push for a second referendum and I think that Independence would win this time. Wales voted to leave despite the huge funding they get from the EU - it's like turkeys voting for Christmas.

For the first time ever, I'm thinking that splitting the Union into four might not be such a bad thing.

ETA My sister and her husband (who is French) are talking of moving to France permanently because of this vote.

This. all of this. Devastated is the right word. Perhaps I'm being melodramatic, but all I can see now is a race to the bottom with international companies fleeing the UK like rats from a sinking ship.

 

[Francesca R]

Perhaps I'm being melodramatic

Perhaps.

 

[Ape of Good Hope]

Nationalism beat Rationalism.

Pretty depressing stuff.

 

[Puppycow]

Donald Trump has an opinion:

Donald Trump in Scotland: 'Brexit a great thing'

 

[aleCcowaN]

Brexit! Brexit, at last!!

 

[Francesca R]

Tell Trump it's a precursor to launching an aquisition program of ex colonies to re-up the empire.

Is he going to bump the UK to the "front of the queue" if he wins the WH?

 

[catsmate]

So? Is it permanent?

It'll bounce back and then get worse. Economically it's a disastrously stupid move, as pretty much every economist has been saying.

I've heard everything from Scotland doing another ref' and rejoining the EU,

IndyRef 2 will happen.

to Northern Ireland joining with Ireland to get back in.

This is not going to happen.

Is there any silver lining to this clusterfudge? Anyone?

Cameron is gone.

Politicians in Northern Ireland are now talking about having a poll of NI citizens about having a united Ireland.

No. Sinn Féin politicians are talking about this.

Ireland is a lot more economically linked to the UK than the EU.

That's not actually true. Look at balance of trade figures for example.

Taking over the north is not at all likely to help things.

Thankfully this will not be happening.

The point is that Ireland is in a worse situation as a result of (i) It being in the EU and (ii) the UK leaving, than it was with (i) it being in the EU and (ii) the UK also being in the EU.

True. Though there are also opportunities. Dublin is one of the three cities most likely to benefit when the FS sector starts leaving London for example.

 

[catsmate]

This. all of this. Devastated is the right word. Perhaps I'm being melodramatic, but all I can see now is a race to the bottom with international companies fleeing the UK like rats from a sinking ship.

My employer, a very large FS company, has internally announced about 850 job cuts in the UK. Given their current plans this will probably increase.

 

[gypsyjackson]

I'm just trying to find out if this 'rule' is true:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Anyone know offhand? If the petition is allowed to stand it will definitely reach the threshold for parliamentary discussion.

 

[Darat]

Which means nothing.

 

[Francesca R]

That's not actually true. Look at balance of trade figures for example.

Correct / my bad. The UK is the largest import origin and export destination but the EU is larger if you combine all non UK members

True. Though there are also opportunities. Dublin is one of the three cities most likely to benefit when the FS sector starts leaving London for example.

Yes it is, to the extent that the sector does leave.

 

[applecorped]

did i miss anything?

 

[gypsyjackson]

Which means nothing.

Of course.

Also it appears to be loose terminology: 'implement' here doesn't mean 'apply' but 'bring in after the event', as I can't find any evidence of such a rule.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Heard reported this morning that the EU may choose to take the vote as notice of our leaving and start the 2 year clock ticking. Sounds slightly ominous when we don't have a PM.

Nicola Sturgeon talking as we speak sounds like she is building up to a 2nd indyref announcement.

Wonder if there is any bizarre way that "regions" can stay in?

Option of 2nd indyref 'on the table' she says and legislation being prepared to make it happen if they decide to hold it. Has to be able to happen before exit.

 

[lionking]

did i miss anything?

As usual

 

[Francesca R]

Nicola Sturgeon talking as we speak sounds like she is building up to a 2nd indyref announcement.

She is discussing all options for now.

 

[marplots]

I feel for you. I'm obviously far removed but still feel sad about this vote. Racism has played a part in this.

I hear this about Trump in the US too. Here though - and I'm curious how much this has a parallel in the UK - I think it's more about nationalism and feeling disenfranchised. We threaten the general public about how terrible things will be if they vote a particular way and they reply, "Those dire predictions don't work anymore. It's already terrible. Terrible doesn't scare us as much as it used to."