Brexit: the referendum

[The Don]

I've already heard Labour being blamed for this tory **** up!

tbh IMO there's some truth in this.

Among the many groups who voted Leave were a large number of "traditional Labour voters" - working class people who really haven't seen any improvement in their circumstances and who have been hit really, really hard by the government's austerity programme. They've been repeatedly told that it's all the EU's fault and in particular it's the influx of EU migrants who are driving down wages and causing strain on local services.

The Labour Party could have, should have, put out a strong, positive, pro-EU message highlighting everything that the EU does for "hard working Britains". Instead, because the leader was a reluctant Remain supporter (albeit his reasons for being anti-EU were diametrically opposed to most Leave supporters) and because of the overwhelmingly negative messaging of the Remain campaign, there wasn't a clear, positive message from the party.

Indeed Jeremy Corbyn's measured style and calm demeanour means that he comes across as lukewarm even when talking about subjects about which he is passionate.

 

[cullennz]

Ireland is a lot more economically linked to the UK than the EU. Taking over the north is not at all likely to help things.

Tend to agree with this.

 

[Francesca R]

It's hardly taking over the north, it's the north looking to the future.

Yes it is. It's Northern Ireland transferring from being part of the UK to being part of the Irish Republic.

 

[Mid]

Another silver lining.....

Since 2008 there have been a number of "stress tests" carried out on European banks to see whether they can weather some international choppy waters. I guess we get to see whether those stress tests - where most banks have passed - are actually any use...

We also get to test the accuracy of economic forecasts so we should learn a lot about current finance/economic theory

 

[cullennz]

Yes it is. It's Northern Ireland transferring from being part of the UK to being part of the Irish Republic.

Indeed

Personally can't see it happening unless the UK caves

 

[lionking]

Yes it is. It's Northern Ireland transferring from being part of the UK to being part of the Irish Republic.

Whatever. You know exactly the point I'm making. The north can be stronger uniting with the Republic. What's the point staying with a decaying UK now turning its back to Europe?

 

[Francesca R]

tbh IMO there's some truth in this.

Not sure if this is correct, but my sense is that Labour supporters voted against the preference of their MPs / shadow ministers in greater proportions than Tory ones did.

Which is one way of concluding that the political fallout for Labour will be higher.

 

[Darat]

Until the North see the continued benefit the Republic gets from EU membership.....

Be too late by then.

 

[lionking]

Which is one way of concluding that the political fallout for Labour will be higher.

This is something we agree on.

 

[cullennz]

tbh IMO there's some truth in this.

Among the many groups who voted Leave were a large number of "traditional Labour voters" - working class people who really haven't seen any improvement in their circumstances and who have been hit really, really hard by the government's austerity programme. They've been repeatedly told that it's all the EU's fault and in particular it's the influx of EU migrants who are driving down wages and causing strain on local services.

The Labour Party could have, should have, put out a strong, positive, pro-EU message highlighting everything that the EU does for "hard working Britains". Instead, because the leader was a reluctant Remain supporter (albeit his reasons for being anti-EU were diametrically opposed to most Leave supporters) and because of the overwhelmingly negative messaging of the Remain campaign, there wasn't a clear, positive message from the party.

Indeed Jeremy Corbyn's measured style and calm demeanour means that he comes across as lukewarm even when talking about subjects about which he is passionate.

I think Corbyn just played his cards to get into the best position.

I find it funny people don't realise he is just another politition playing the numbers for gain

 

[Francesca R]

The north can be stronger uniting with the Republic.

Let's wait to see evidence that NI opinion moves that way. I doubt it. A few short years ago Ireland had a crash / bailout / austerity that would make anyone weep thanks to the euro zone debt crisis. Not to mention that opinions in NI of nationality are probably highly divorced from economic considerations.

Of course republican political parties in NI will argue for it though.

(Anyone know if Gibraltans now want to join Spain?)

 

[Francesca R]

Be too late by then.

The point is that Ireland is in a worse situation as a result of (i) It being in the EU and (ii) the UK leaving, than it was with (i) it being in the EU and (ii) the UK also being in the EU.

So someone explain how unifying with said country just became more (economically) appealing?

 

[wobs]

tbh IMO there's some truth in this.

Among the many groups who voted Leave were a large number of "traditional Labour voters" - working class people who really haven't seen any improvement in their circumstances and who have been hit really, really hard by the government's austerity programme. They've been repeatedly told that it's all the EU's fault and in particular it's the influx of EU migrants who are driving down wages and causing strain on local services.

The Labour Party could have, should have, put out a strong, positive, pro-EU message highlighting everything that the EU does for "hard working Britains". Instead, because the leader was a reluctant Remain supporter (albeit his reasons for being anti-EU were diametrically opposed to most Leave supporters) and because of the overwhelmingly negative messaging of the Remain campaign, there wasn't a clear, positive message from the party.

Indeed Jeremy Corbyn's measured style and calm demeanour means that he comes across as lukewarm even when talking about subjects about which he is passionate.

Agreed.
I was reading the other day how some have felt that Corbyn has been useless throughout this. He could have really made a difference, but was far to quiet. I don't think he's an effective leader, but I don't know of any alternatives right now. He may have principles, but the real world is rather more complicated than that.

The result was my worst fears realised. Driving round a local small town yesterday, I saw many Leave posters. I got the impression my friends were in the minority, and this has shown this morning.

It seems lies work. Its a sad day.

 

[lionking]

I think Corbyn just played his cards to get into the best position.

I find it funny people don't realise he is just another politition playing the numbers for gain

What? Labour is the big loser from this poll. It's heartland rejected its call to vote Remain. Corbyn was toxic anyway. He's in the sewer now. He was never electable, now his "leadership" has consigned Labour of a decade at least in the wilderness. And I'm of the left.

 

[Francesca R]

It seems lies work.

There are/were lies on both sides, and IMO moral equivalence on both sides.

I think what works is that the public is hostile to immigration.

Not necessarily because each and every immigrant there ever was took a job, a council house, more welfare than their contribution, plus a school place and a hospital bed from someone British, which of course they did. (See? I lied)

But because the tolerance for immigration is structurally lower for most folks than its present day level.

That is sad, yes.

 

[Darat]

The point is that Ireland is in a worse situation as a result of (i) It being in the EU and (ii) the UK leaving, than it was with (i) it being in the EU and (ii) the UK also being in the EU.

So someone explain how unifying with said country just became more (economically) appealing?

These types of decisions are not made on the facts but people's emotional responses.

 

[Francesca R]

Indeed. My tentative guess is that feelings of national identity in NI are not exactly dominated by whether it is in the EU or not, but by whether it is in the UK or not.

The Bremain vote share wasn't all that extreme was it?

The economic "advantage" has probably got to be massive to outweigh unionist/republican divides.

And see above, don't know if there even would be an economic advantage (to NI from Irish unity), as opposed to a disadvantage

 

[Agatha]

I am devastated. In 2012 we were so welcoming and put on those fantastic Olympics, the whole country came together. Now we've torn ourselves apart, wrecked our economy almost overnight, got a PM who has resigned (though he's staying until Oct, so he's a lame duck until then), an ineffectual opposition and the rest of the world thinks we are a bunch of isolationists. Scotland will push for a second referendum and I think that Independence would win this time. Wales voted to leave despite the huge funding they get from the EU - it's like turkeys voting for Christmas.

For the first time ever, I'm thinking that splitting the Union into four might not be such a bad thing.

ETA My sister and her husband (who is French) are talking of moving to France permanently because of this vote.

 

[Darat]

I agree

 

[commandlinegamer]

I was reading the other day how some have felt that Corbyn has been useless throughout this. He could have really made a difference, but was far to quiet. I don't think he's an effective leader, but I don't know of any alternatives right now.

The problem any Labour leader has to face is that of a hostile, predominantly right-wing press. New Labour managed to present themselves as business-friendly enough for Murdoch to back them, and Gordon was apparently on good terms with Paul Dacre of the Mail, but those halcyon days are long gone.

Corbyn may be a decent guy with his "kinder, gentler politics", his support for some dodgy characters notwithstanding, but that's not going to achieve much in the world of Westminister and Fleet Street, let along the country as a whole.