Prediction noted. It will fail.
Brexit: the referendum
- Thread starter MikeG
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Prediction noted. It will fail.
Lothian
should be banned
I am not sure where the data comes from. I recall at the last election there was an issue in that we recorded people coming in to the UK but not people leaving.
When looking at the data we also need to recognize that we need immigrants. According to the table there are 5.7 million more people here since 2000 but only 4 million unemployed. The unemployment percentage is not that different from 2009. On a longer term view we need more immigrants as well we are an aging population living longer needing more support from the state. Unless we raise taxes we need more taxpayers to fund this expense. As is often repeated immigrants add far more in taxes than they incur in state expenditure.
The question is therefore how does a brexited UK, in the widely predicted economic downturn, attract the right people to the UK and how big a government department do you want to build to administer the process?
The more I see of the two camps, the more I see the nutjobs, the xenophobes, and the closet (and open) racists aligning with the Leave side. I'd say that should give normal people pause for thought before supporting that side.
Disclosure:
I know the UKIP candidate for the neighboring constituency and he isn't any of the above, but he does admit to being utterly number blind. My MP is also on the Leave side and isn't any of the above, either. He's a pretty good constituency MP.
The only person at work that I know is in favour of Brexit is also a Young Earth Creationist and disbeliever in Global Warming. I don't rate his critical thinking.
I know a fair number who are undecided and quite a few who are strongly on the Remain side. Most of my colleagues know my position - I think that my real voice is pretty similar to my posting voice.
welshdean
Michael McDonald 1967 - 2021
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Thing is since the 1970s barely a year seems to go by without British governments of whatever side increasing the restrictions on migration. Again and again we get immigration scares, again and again new crackdowns and at the end of the day little changes. the country doesn't collapse, the immigrants still keep coming.
Every time Brexiters are faced with a set of data or an opinion that contradicts their fantasy post-EU world they simply yell propaganda, or, as in the case of President Obama, denounce the party in question for daring to speak up.
Brexit may stop immigrants taking jobs in the UK, but only because there won't be any jobs for them to take.
Every time Brexiters are faced with a set of data or an opinion that contradicts their fantasy post-EU world they simply yell propaganda, or, as in the case of President Obama, denounce the party in question for daring to speak up.
Brexit may stop immigrants taking jobs in the UK, but only because there won't be any jobs for them to take.
It seems that the argument seems to be coming down to immigration. It seems that it's more important to be able to exclude immigrants than it is to have a vibrant economy for them (and us) to work in
Note: I am exceptionally partial on the matter, it is highly likely that my business will at best be badly affected and most likely will go under if we leave the EU with the associated pain that will cause for me and my employees
Yeah the Brexiters fail to grasp that among the 'foreigners' likely to leave are Toyota, Ford, Amazon...
Also a significant number of nurses, doctors and other medical staff in the NHS.
We could quite easily get back several million pensioners, which is unlikely to reduce the pressure on the NHS and other services.
welshdean
Michael McDonald 1967 - 2021
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Come now jimbob, leave the silliness to the silly. We're not going to lose any doctors and the expats won't be sent packing from the Costas.
Play with a straight bat, there's a good chap.
I was pointing out that we need immigration.
The pensioners aren't going to be sent packing, but my understanding is that pension arrangements depend on the country and currently UK pensioners in EU countries get better deals than in other countries. They might not be sent packing, but they would be likely to find it more expensive to remain in the Costas
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
You say that like you think it might make a difference.
Turks, mate. 76 million of them. Makes you think, dunnit?
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
I doubt we'll see many leave in the near-term, but future investment in Europe (the continent) is likely to be in Europe (the Union). London property and Scottish grouse-moors aside, of course.
I disagree, the "Out" campaign insisting that the UK will continue to enjoy all the benefits of EU membership without any of the obligations is sheer fantasy. It flies in the face of established precedent (in Norway and Switzerland), global norms, the considered opinion of experts and the clear statement of those in the EU who will be responsible for negotiating the terms of the Brexit.
By any reasonable definition, it's a fantasy.
You've been predicting the failure of all Western Economies since you turned up and have typically failed to provide any evidence to support that notion.
Good for you
...and those Turks are pretty swarthy aren't they ?
I know they used say that Worthy Oriental Gentlemen begin at Calais, these days it's probable the Danube or the Bosphorus...
The most important question is: which of them is sharing a platform with "an extremists"?
The problem with democracy is that a substantial percentage of voters lack the critical thinking capacity to make a rational choice, and consequently make descisions based on soundbites and emotions. In some cases these numbers are bad but managable (Germany), in others they threaten the prosperity of their entire state if not continent (UK) and sometimes they're outright scary (Trump, Putler).
Democracy is a flawed system of governance. The only thing speaking in it's favor is the fact all other systems of governance that we know of are even more flawed.
Thus far opinion polling was fairly consistently rational, but by a very thin margain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini..._Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
At this point I doubt all that many people are to be convinced, honestly. One side will win by a few percentage points, and it'll be up to voter participation as to which side will that be. The rational side has the edge, but it's very close.
I'm hoping for a result similar to the one in Scotland in 2014. The polls showed the "No" camp having a narrow lead of 5 percentage points or so, but in the end, the "No" camp won by just over 10 percentage points. It could very well be that then as now, the "Leave" side was simply more keen to make their voices heard.
McHrozni
Meanwhile, an article in the Guardian by the real Patrick Stewart.
I suppose that you could imagine that he is arguing for the NWO but only if you are wilfully dim.
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...war-europe-unite-reject-isolationism-leave-eu
I suppose that you could imagine that he is arguing for the NWO but only if you are wilfully dim.
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...war-europe-unite-reject-isolationism-leave-eu
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
Foreign starts just after Chepstow, and I have my doubts about Newport....and those Turks are pretty swarthy aren't they ?
I know they used say that Worthy Oriental Gentlemen begin at Calais, these days it's probable the Danube or the Bosphorus...
So Gove was being interviewed by the BBC tonight. He claimed an exit would allow protection of the steel industry, conveniently forgetting it was the UK government that blocked EU plans to raise Chinese steel tariffs. he claimed Brexit would somehow create jobs. And he repeated the £350 million pound cost figure they've been told to stop using because it is so wrong, oh and a leave vote won't trigger a second Scottish independence referendum, but a leave vote will lead to a 'non-racist' immigration policy. More hilarity here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36050790
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36050790
Andy_Ross
Penultimate Amazing
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Anything south of the Humber
CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
Word on the street is that Gove agreed to the 350m sovs figure being audited.
Not the most accomplished performer on his feet. Theresa May would never have put her cock on the block like that (so to speak).
These last few weeks are time for the hyper-active narcissists of the Leave campaign to screw their own pooches. The big guns on the Remain side have already spoken and been whined about. Now we get Johnson actually addressing the issue of essential immigrant workers with a half-baked points-system waffle, then backing off before the day is out.
The news cycle has its demands and these people are driven to satisfy them. Given their essential vapidity they can only harm themselves in the process. Meanwhile Cameron has a country to run and his office can refer questioners to his previous statements.
I'm still whistling past the churchyard, but I do think the Brexiters jumped the shark with the 76 million Turks. And I still think the moment of the campaign was Boris Johnson flashing his builder's cleavage as he clambered into a lorry-cab right at the start, mumbling some garbage about the EU making a bridge be 4m high. ********* and lies, from the get-go.
It'll be interesting to see what Corbyn's contribution to the immigration theatre of war has on the polls.
ETA : oops. I hope my point got across.
Not the most accomplished performer on his feet. Theresa May would never have put her cock on the block like that (so to speak).
These last few weeks are time for the hyper-active narcissists of the Leave campaign to screw their own pooches. The big guns on the Remain side have already spoken and been whined about. Now we get Johnson actually addressing the issue of essential immigrant workers with a half-baked points-system waffle, then backing off before the day is out.
The news cycle has its demands and these people are driven to satisfy them. Given their essential vapidity they can only harm themselves in the process. Meanwhile Cameron has a country to run and his office can refer questioners to his previous statements.
I'm still whistling past the churchyard, but I do think the Brexiters jumped the shark with the 76 million Turks. And I still think the moment of the campaign was Boris Johnson flashing his builder's cleavage as he clambered into a lorry-cab right at the start, mumbling some garbage about the EU making a bridge be 4m high. ********* and lies, from the get-go.
It'll be interesting to see what Corbyn's contribution to the immigration theatre of war has on the polls.
ETA : oops. I hope my point got across.
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