Cont: Brexit: Now What? The Perfect 10.

[McHrozni]

Oh, there are plenty of alternatives, the top few being:

• The ministers who, despite the faith that Boris Johnson put in them, failed to come up with effective policies to square the circle
• The "fifth column" within his own party who tried, however ineffectively, to protect food standards, the farmers, British workers and so on
• The rearguard action fought by Remoaners, the Labour Party and the UK "deep state" which undermined Boris Johnson's government
• The EU
• Factors completely beyond his control - like the Coronavirus

IMO enough people will buy this **** and/or will be convinced that the Starmer-led Labour Party are radical leftists in disguise that they will continue to cast their vote for the Conservatives.

I think this later point is more relevant than who BJ will be able to blame. It's not just how bad the Conservatives are but how weak the choice of alternatives is. Corbyn probably damaged Labour beyond repair for a number of years.

Alternatively the Conservatives could bin Boris Johnson and call for the country to rally round the new leader.

This is more likely and would be fitting. A new Conservative leader might mean (somewhat) more sane policies too.

Of course it Scotland achieves independence, then unless there is a schism in the Conservative Party and/or a huge electoral shift, the Conservatives will be in power in the rUK for the rest of my life (I'm 53 and plan to live for at least another 40 years).

If BJ remains in power for much longer and signs a slavish agreement with the USA that would be a "when", not an "if" (or "it" ).

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

I think this later point is more relevant than who BJ will be able to blame. It's not just how bad the Conservatives are but how weak the choice of alternatives is. Corbyn probably damaged Labour beyond repair for a number of years.

My personal view is that Sir Keir Starmer might perform the same role as Neil Kinnock nearly 40 years ago, drive out the loonies (now Momentum, back then Militant) from the party and start to make the party electable.

It'll be the next Labour leader, or the one after that, who may be somewhat electable - but IMO will not be elected.

This is more likely and would be fitting. A new Conservative leader might mean (somewhat) more sane policies too.

Au contraire, I fear that the next Conservative leader will be even more of a Brexophile than Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson will be portrayed as a political opportunist and late adopter of the Brexit message and someone who was far to willing to compromise with the EU. The failures of Brexit will be put down to failing to stick to our guns.

The next Conservative leader will be a lifelong Eurosceptic and the message will be clear. Had <Insert Name> been in charge then the EU would have folded, we'd have had our free access to EU markets without having to adhere to any of the rules.

If BJ remains in power for much longer and signs a slavish agreement with the USA that would be a "when", not an "if" (or "it" ).

McHrozni

Only if the UK government allows another referendum to take place. Of course the Scottish government could unilaterally decide to allow a vote but that would put a successful vote for independence in a difficult position constitutionally.

 

[McHrozni]

Au contraire, I fear that the next Conservative leader will be even more of a Brexophile than Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson will be portrayed as a political opportunist and late adopter of the Brexit message and someone who was far to willing to compromise with the EU. The failures of Brexit will be put down to failing to stick to our guns.

The next Conservative leader will be a lifelong Eurosceptic and the message will be clear. Had <Insert Name> been in charge then the EU would have folded, we'd have had our free access to EU markets without having to adhere to any of the rules.

It depends a whole lot on how Brexit goes. If there's a no deal Brexit then the loonies will be discredited. Whether that changes anything or not remains to be seen.

If UK bends the knee before the EU then that is a real possibility.

Only if the UK government allows another referendum to take place. Of course the Scottish government could unilaterally decide to allow a vote but that would put a successful vote for independence in a difficult position constitutionally.

Another referendum on independence in Scotland is a matter of time. It could be years, it could be decades, but there will be another referendum within your lifetime, assuming you're at least halfway right regarding your longevity. The last one was 6 years ago, 20 years can already be called a "generation" and 30 definitely is a generation. Heck, 10 years can be long enough to argue sufficient time already passed, with some merit.

All it takes is one hung Parliament, or else one slim majority that can't get a critical law passed, or even just a realization that might happen at the next election if Scotland remains in the union.

How would the vote go is another matter, but if BJ remakes the Conservatives into an English nationalist party, then the conclusion is already there. There has been a statistical tie ever since the 2019 election, more nationalism and a serville relationship with the USA won't do the Union any favors.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

It depends a whole lot on how Brexit goes. If there's a no deal Brexit then the loonies will be discredited. Whether that changes anything or not remains to be seen.

If UK bends the knee before the EU then that is a real possibility.

I think you've underestimated the amount of cognitive dissonance that Brexiteers can conjure up.

If there is a no deal then the blame will be placed on the EU for being wholly unreasonable and, in the event of a change of leadership, on the previous party leader for showing willing to negotiate which meant that the EU didn't fold completely and give the UK everything that it wanted.

The "failures" at each stage aren't down to the underlying huge flaws in Brexit but are instead down to the individuals leading the country.

Theresa May's deal was rubbish, because she was willing to negotiate.

Boris Johnson had a fantastic deal (strangely indistinguishable from Theresa May's) but that in retrospect has turned out to be rubbish, because he was willing to negotiate.

The EU are foreigners and the only way to get through to foreigners is to repeat your demands loudly, in English and eventually they will capitulate.

Another referendum on independence in Scotland is a matter of time. It could be years, it could be decades, but there will be another referendum within your lifetime, assuming you're at least halfway right regarding your longevity. The last one was 6 years ago, 20 years can already be called a "generation" and 30 definitely is a generation. Heck, 10 years can be long enough to argue sufficient time already passed, with some merit.

OK, you're talking about those sort of timescales. I mistakenly thought you were talking about the current parliament when you said:

If BJ remains in power for much longer and signs a slavish agreement with the USA that would be a "when", not an "if"

My apologies for reading too much into that.

All it takes is one hung Parliament, or else one slim majority that can't get a critical law passed, or even just a realization that might happen at the next election if Scotland remains in the union.

That would require the Labour Party to be much, much, stronger because, to a first order approximation, there are no Conservative MPs in Scotland - not something I think is likely.

How would the vote go is another matter, but if BJ remakes the Conservatives into an English nationalist party, then the conclusion is already there. There has been a statistical tie ever since the 2019 election, more nationalism and a serville relationship with the USA won't do the Union any favors.

McHrozni

I think that a vote for Scottish Independence is increasingly likely, especially if the EU make it clear that Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU with open arms.

 

[McHrozni]

I think you've underestimated the amount of cognitive dissonance that Brexiteers can conjure up.

Maybe, who knows. I find it hard to believe half the country is outright insane. A quarter maybe, but half?

OK, you're talking about those sort of timescales. I mistakenly thought you were talking about the current parliament when you said:
My apologies for reading too much into that.

No, I didn't mean just the current Parliament.

Although it's not impossible that BJ won't provoke one anyway. If it looks like his next election might go sideways, if Labour begins to make great strides nationwide and begins to partner with SNP, then BJ might cut off a limb to maintain power.

That's how I think Scotland will win the referendum: by becoming a threat to the Conservative majority.

That would require the Labour Party to be much, much, stronger because, to a first order approximation, there are no Conservative MPs in Scotland - not something I think is likely.

Yes, it does require strengthening of Labour to a point where a Labour government becomes at least possible.

I think that a vote for Scottish Independence is increasingly likely, especially if the EU make it clear that Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU with open arms.

Quite likely, I agree. Northern Ireland would also follow in some fashion, perhaps as an independent state that seeks to unify with ROI, whether that happens or not. After what we've seen UK would the dismemberment too.

McHrozni

 

[lomiller]

I just hope the disaster we call "Trump presidency" acts as a catalyst for major reform within the USA and brings the country back into sanity. That would help. UK would still piggyback as the anchor the country is, but at least then we could have a reasonable western world back again. One can dream, at least.

Trump is just a symptom of deeper problems. IMO it’s far more likely that he’ll become a scapegoat and the real problems will remain unaddressed. When Trump is gone people, his supporters included, will just walk away saying “see the problem is fixed” but every Republican candidate for the next 2 decades will be just as bad.

Unfortunately I think the UK is headed the same way with the Right attempting to mimic the underlying system that created Trump in the first place. 20 years from now a lot of people may find themselves thinking that Boris Johnson wasn’t that bad in comparison to the leadership they are suffering though in 2040.

 

[Garrison]

It helps to understand the mentality of the rank and file Brexiteer if you think of them as the same sort of people who would turn up to 'protect' Churchill's statue and then make Nazi salutes.

 

[McHrozni]

Trump is just a symptom of deeper problems.

That is true. It's not the fact Trump is president, it's the fact he was able to become president that is most worrying, plus the fact the entire Republican party stood behind him as he did his utmost to destroy the country.

IMO it’s far more likely that he’ll become a scapegoat and the real problems will remain unaddressed. When Trump is gone people, his supporters included, will just walk away saying “see the problem is fixed” but every Republican candidate for the next 2 decades will be just as bad.

That's possible. But keep in mind his base is not 45% of the electorate, it's more like 20-25% of the electorate, with another 20% or so who go along with the charade in order to get certain things they want done. His base is large enough and enthusiastic enough to vote for such 'people' and dominate Republican primary, but the rest of the electorate is more than large enough to deny them most of the top offices - especially if the remaining 20% are lackluster about voting and the voters on the other side highly motivated.

Remember, the GOP was already maintaining power through cheating - gerrymandering and voter disfranchisement - before Trump. This is relevant, because they only work so long as you're in power. If you lose power the other side only needs to chip away at your cheating wall. They don't even need to bring it down, if you couldn't win as an incumbent with the field heavily slanting your way, then you definitely can't win as the challenger if the field doesn't slant your way by anywhere near as much.

Republican party may continue fieling Trumpian candidates for some time to come, true. It may also come undone. The worst case scenario you describe is also possible, the truth will likely be somewhere in between.

Unfortunately I think the UK is headed the same way with the Right attempting to mimic the underlying system that created Trump in the first place. 20 years from now a lot of people may find themselves thinking that Boris Johnson wasn’t that bad in comparison to the leadership they are suffering though in 2040.

UK is currently in a worse position than USA, I think. In USA, there's a very good chance the president will be unseated, it's even possible the Democrats will win both houses of the Congress. They need four Senate seats for that, six years ago Republicans took nine seats - that means nine out of 23 Republican seats in play elected a Democrat in the previous cycle.

In UK there's little prospect for improvement until the next election more than four years from now, with at least one major and irreversible disaster in between. Possibly two - no deal Brexit and vassalisation to the USA.

McHrozni

 

[Andy_Ross]

So fantastic! A trade deal with Australia could be worth up to £1bn which is definitely better than free trade with the EU which is only worth £290bn.

 

[Wudang]

So fantastic! A trade deal with Australia could be worth up to £1bn which is definitely better than free trade with the EU which is only worth £290bn.

Stop talking the UK down! Now all we need to do is discover 289 more Australias and welcome a second and better Elizabethan Age of exploration.

 

[Andy_Ross]

"I want a world in which we send you Marmite and you send us Vegemite"
"How long can the British people be deprived of the opportunity to have Arnott's Tim Tams at a reasonable price?"


Actual quotes from Boris!

Just think, we’ve given up freedom of movement and tariff free trade with the EU on things like fine wine, delicious cheese, charcuterie, and truffles for a fake Penguin biscuit.

 

[Andy_Ross]

There are few countries in the world who share a closer friendship than Australia and the UK.
Now, as an independent trading nation for the first time in decades, we have the opportunity to turn our shared history and friendship into a world-leading free trade agreement.

Worth noting that the EU are in the process of negotiating a trade deal with Australia. We’re behind the EU in the queue and we’re a much, much smaller market. To even entertain the notion of the UK negotiating a superior trade deal with Australia to the EU is simply absurd.

 

[The Don]

Worth noting that the EU are in the process of negotiating a trade deal with Australia. We’re behind the EU in the queue and we’re a much, much smaller market. To even entertain the notion of the UK negotiating a superior trade deal with Australia to the EU is simply absurd.

I suppose that there may be some sticking points for individual countries which the UK may not have and so may be in a position to get a better deal more quickly.

Then again, Australia and the EU may be concerned that the UK could be used to circumvent their deal.

 

[Mojo]

Worth noting that the EU are in the process of negotiating a trade deal with Australia. We’re behind the EU in the queue and we’re a much, much smaller market. To even entertain the notion of the UK negotiating a superior trade deal with Australia to the EU is simply absurd.

It’s perfectly simple. The EU negotiates a trade deal with Australia; we negotiate a trade deal with Australia. We then have no need for a trade deal with the EU because all our trade with them can go via the antipodes, and the Foreign Secretary no longer has to comprehend the importance of the Dover-Calais trade route.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I did wonder why Tim Tams was trending.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Conservative Home "The Voice of Conservatism" has published a piece by darren grimes on energy production 'post brexit'

He says

Since we must use coal, why import it all when we could instead create jobs by mining it in the North-East?

Shall I slap him or does someone else want that pleasure?


https://www.conservativehome.com/th...nd-wealth-by-mining-it-in-the-north-east.html

 

[Mojo]

Born 1993, so won’t remember.

 

[Mojo]

Didn’t Thatcher blame the EEC for her having to close down the mines because she wasn’t allowed to subsidise them, thus making British coal more expensive than Polish and American imports? I can just imagine her surreptitiously peeling a small onion while making that announcement.

 

[abaddon]

Conservative Home "The Voice of Conservatism" has published a piece by darren grimes on energy production 'post brexit'

He says

Shall I slap him or does someone else want that pleasure?


https://www.conservativehome.com/th...nd-wealth-by-mining-it-in-the-north-east.html

Grimes is not worth the effort of a slap. Entitled little ****.

 

[catsmate]

It helps to understand the mentality of the rank and file Brexiteer if you think of them as the same sort of people who would turn up to 'protect' Churchill's statue and then make Nazi salutes.

And urinate on a memorial to a murdered police officer.

Truly they are the Dumb, the Desperate and the Deplorable.