Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[ceptimus]

Because to sell in to Europe we have to produce goods that comply with European rules and regs.
No barriers between Northern Ireland and the Republic means free movement of people.

What's hard to understand?

Europe buys plenty of stuff from countries outside the EU. Agreed they won't buy stuff that doesn't comply with their regs - that's fine. If they don't want to buy some stuff no one is forcing them to do that.

There has been free movement of people across the Irish border before the EU even became a thing. Let me remind you once again that the UK has repeatedly promised that it will install no hard Irish border post Brexit. You don't seem to understand this. You keep responding as if the UK had said that it does intend to install such a hard border.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Before the EU became a thing we weren't in the EU.
Then we were in the EU and now we won't be but Ireland will be.
Don't you see the problem there?

We will have an open border with the EU.

So, as you point out we will be producing goods that comply with EU regs to sell to them and we will have an open border so we will get free movement of people anyway.

 

[ceptimus]

Before the EU became a thing we weren't in the EU.
Then we were in the EU and now we won't be but Ireland will be.
Don't you see the problem there?

We will have an open border with the EU.

So, as you point out we will be producing goods that comply with EU regs to sell to them and we will have an open border so we will get free movement of people anyway.

Yes, and... ? What is your point?

By the way, you made one small omission. The EU won't buy stuff that doesn't comply with their regulations, but we will still be able to make whatever stuff we like that complies with our own regulations and sell it to ourselves or other non-EU countries (if they want it).

 

[Andy_Ross]

The point is leaving the EU and having an open border with Ireland won't stop immigration from the EU, they can just walk across the border!

As for producing goods that don't meet Euro regs but meet our own,
Why would any manufacturer in the UK not want to make goods they can sell in Europe, our biggest and closest market?

Why would anyone in the UK want to buy anything that wasn't up to the same standard as that made by manufacturers in Europe?

What's the advertising going to be?

"Not as good as German or French but it's made in Watford"?

 

[ceptimus]

Yes they can just walk or drive or ride across the border. So what? This is the situation that applies right now, and the UK government has promised that it won't change to a hard border after Brexit. It's necessary to preserve the trade between the two parts of Ireland, and is a requirement of the Good Friday agreement. We can take other measures against any immigrants that aren't allowed by the rules after Brexit - we can prevent them from working, or living or banking in the UK for example - just as we do with illegal immigrants right now. Of course we have to catch them first - again just as we have to right now with illegal migrants - so some will, of course escape justice.

Our standards might be higher than EU ones in some ways. Why do you assume they would be lower? At the time of leaving the EU, of course, the standards will be exactly the same. As and when the EU or the UK decide to update standards or introduce new ones it will be up to the other party to decide whether or not they wish to adopt the new/changed standards. Let's say the USA and Japan adopt a new standard for the batteries of electric vehicles some time in the future and the UK decides to harmonize its own standards with those but the EU doesn't. Then the UK could buy and sell such batteries and battery vehicles easily to/from the USA and Japan, but would have to make special, possibly expensive changes to sell to the EU, and the EU might also have to produce special higher specification batteries if they wished to sell them to the other countries. In such a scenario it would be in the EU's best interests to adopt the same standards - but of course that would be up to them.

 

[fagin]

Pigs. Fly. Etc.

 

[ceptimus]

What's the advertising going to be?

"Not as good as German or French but it's made in Watford"?

More likely, "Not as good as the German, but cheaper!" This is exactly the situation that applies right now with cheap goods from China and elsewhere. See how the consumers queue up to buy such goods! The consumers know they're not as good as the German ones, but they think they're better value for money. This applies even to German consumers, by the way.

 

[Craig B]

It seems you're all saying that the EU will have to impose a hard border where their member country, Ireland, meets Northern Ireland.

If the EU is going to impose a hard border why is it asking that the UK make a legal commitment not to do so? This makes no sense.


If the EU doesn't impose a hard border and neither does the UK then guess what, there won't be a hard border! I don't see why you're all struggling to understand this. Yes you will be able to transport goods across the border - including cigarettes and wine. So what? This is no change from the current situation that seems to be working perfectly well.

You will note that different rules apply in the different cases of buying booze and fags in airport shops for destinations inside and outside the EU. The attention of travellers is always drawn to these differences when purchases are made.

Obviously if there was no way of policing this, people would still carry these things across borders. That bit would work well. Excise revenues wouldn't work so well, but you're saying that's of no importance. We'll see how realistic that is.

 

[The Don]

More likely, "Not as good as the German, but cheaper!" This is exactly the situation that applies right now with cheap goods from China and elsewhere. See how the consumers queue up to buy such goods! The consumers know they're not as good as the German ones, but they think they're better value for money. This applies even to German consumers, by the way.

Apart from the fact that anything for sale in the EU has to comply with EU regulations.

The main reason why Chinese goods are cheaper is that labour rates are far, far, lower. That's the post-Brexit vision, competing with China on price, not Germany on quality and innovation.

Regarding the hard/soft Irish border, you seem to have just ignored our WTO obligations. Under WTO rules, unless there's a customs union (which has been ruled out by May et al) then there needs to be border enforcement. An open border also makes a mockery of Brexiteers wishes to keep (Eastern) Europeans out.


Chinese stuff on sale outside the EU also tends to conform to EU standards because it's far easier and more cost effective to manufacture a single product which is compliant with EU, US, Japanese etc. regulations than it is to manufacture market specific versions. There may be products which are "non-developed world only" but IMO it doesn't make sense for the UK to focus on that market.

 

[Darat]

But there will be excise duty on whisky? How will it be enforced?

How will we keep Johnnie Foreigner from entering the "Six Counties" after travelling by plane or ferry into "Southern Ireland", and then crossing into Britain, unless there are people either on the Southern Ireland Border, or between the Six Counties and the Island of Britain, with a responsibility to control Johnnie Foreigner's movements, and facilities for performing this task.

The mayor of Calais must be rubbing her hands. She can build a nice little airport just for asylum seekers and other hopeful would be immigrants, and arrange coaches to take them from Dublin to Belfast!

 

[Darat]

Yes, and... ? What is your point?

By the way, you made one small omission. The EU won't buy stuff that doesn't comply with their regulations, but we will still be able to make whatever stuff we like that complies with our own regulations and sell it to ourselves or other non-EU countries (if they want it).

Why can't we do that right now?

 

[Darat]

Apart from the fact that anything for sale in the EU has to comply with EU regulations.

The main reason why Chinese goods are cheaper is that labour rates are far, far, lower. That's the post-Brexit vision, competing with China on price, not Germany on quality and innovation.

Regarding the hard/soft Irish border, you seem to have just ignored our WTO obligations. Under WTO rules, unless there's a customs union (which has been ruled out by May et al) then there needs to be border enforcement. An open border also makes a mockery of Brexiteers wishes to keep (Eastern) Europeans out.


Chinese stuff on sale outside the EU also tends to conform to EU standards because it's far easier and more cost effective to manufacture a single product which is compliant with EU, US, Japanese etc. regulations than it is to manufacture market specific versions. There may be products which are "non-developed world only" but IMO it doesn't make sense for the UK to focus on that market.

Load of tosh. We are much too important for the WTO to rule against us and make us keep to the rules we've signed up to and even if it did we'd still not be part of the EU so that's fine.

 

[Amazer]

The mayor of Calais must be rubbing her hands. She can build a nice little airport just for asylum seekers and other hopeful would be immigrants, and arrange coaches to take them from Dublin to Belfast!

Or get Ireland to join Schengen... then any asylum seekers who still wants to go to the UK will make their own way.

Sent from my SM-J700F using Tapatalk

 

[ceptimus]

What do you think the WTO will do about the lack of a hard border in Ireland after Brexit? The EU has been blocking the conclusion of the Doha round of WTO talks now since 2001 because the EU wants to keep its protectionist measures in place for its farmers.

 

[ceptimus]

What do you think keeps the people in the Calais jungle from taking the "via Ireland" route right now? Why do you think this will be any different after Brexit?

 

[ceptimus]

Why can't we do that right now?

Because the EU doesn't allow us to.

 

[The Don]

Because the EU doesn't allow us to.

edited to add....

As I understand it (but my understanding may be incomplete and flawed, my company deals in services, not products), the UK is free to manufacture to non-EU specifications as long as the product is not for sale in the EU. What we cannot do is manufacture in a way that breaks obligations to the EU (or any other body) regarding worker and environmental protections.

It really does seem that the "grand plan" post-Brexit is to turn the UK into a low-skill, low-wage sweatshop where environmental and worker protections go out of the window. As the rest of the developed world tries to encourage the developing world to up their game in those regards, we'll be regressing to some "glorious" Victorian vision of the workplace

 

[The Don]

What do you think the WTO will do about the lack of a hard border in Ireland after Brexit? The EU has been blocking the conclusion of the Doha round of WTO talks now since 2001 because the EU wants to keep its protectionist measures in place for its farmers.

I'm not sure that the best approach to ensuring that the UK gets a fair shake post-Brexit is to deliberately antagonise the WTO and its members.

 

[Amazer]

I'm not sure that the best approach to ensuring that the UK gets a fair shake post-Brexit is to deliberately antagonise the WTO and its members.

Well, if you have an over-inflated sense of your own importance and no realistic plan to get from where you to where you want to go with an added dose of feeling that you really deserve to have cake and eat it... then I guess it does make sense.

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[ceptimus]

I'm not sure that the best approach to ensuring that the UK gets a fair shake post-Brexit is to deliberately antagonise the WTO and its members.

Ignoring the fact that the EU has been doing this since the WTO was formed in 1995. The WTO might be pleased that we're leaving the organisation that does antagonise the WTO.