Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[Hubert Cumberdale]

The open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland existed long before the EU.

The UK has pledged repeatedly that it won't build a hard border - this would be in breach of the Good Friday agreement (which again was not primarily an EU matter).

The EU is being presumptive in the extreme by suggesting that the UK now needs a new legal commitment to not erect a hard border. It would be okay if the EU were prepared to do the same - if they're not it's just another example of the sort of bully-boy tactics the EU likes to engage in and just one more reason why it's a good thing that the UK is leaving.

I'm pretty sure this has been explained to you many times before, but since you're hard of learning, I'll do it again.

WTO rules state that unless you have an FTA or are in a CUSTOMS UNION then the tariffs you impose on any WTO member must be applied to all other WTO members.

Thus, there has to be a hard border if there is no FTA or Customs Union because both the UK and the EU would be in breach of the WTO rules you leavers are so fond of.

Is this even registering with you?

How have you not internalized this yet?

 

[3point14]

I'm pretty sure this has been explained to you many times before, but since you're hard of learning, I'll do it again.

WTO rules state that unless you have an FTA or are in a CUSTOMS UNION then the tariffs you impose on any WTO member must be applied to all other WTO members.

Thus, there has to be a hard border if there is no FTA or Customs Union because both the UK and the EU would be in breach of the WTO rules you leavers are so fond of.

Is this even registering with you?

How have you not internalized this yet?

None of those that advocate the UK leaving the EU seem to be what one might call sophisticated thinkers.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Brilliant. That means I can still bring in all the low-tax / tax free beers and cigs into the UK that I like.

The treasury and messrs benson and hedges might be upset, but all I need to do is go from Spain (no hard border) to the ROI, into Norther Ireland and then on to, say, Liverpool in the post-EU Exit UK. Not a single customs check will prevent me from bringing in a transit van full of booze and cigs.

At least then, I have a backup plan when the economy tanks and the government have no money to pay me the dole.

Bring a van load of plumbers and cabbage pickers with you as well.

 

[ponderingturtle]

The open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland existed long before the EU.

The UK has pledged repeatedly that it won't build a hard border - this would be in breach of the Good Friday agreement (which again was not primarily an EU matter).

The EU is being presumptive in the extreme by suggesting that the UK now needs a new legal commitment to not erect a hard border. It would be okay if the EU were prepared to do the same - if they're not it's just another example of the sort of bully-boy tactics the EU likes to engage in and just one more reason why it's a good thing that the UK is leaving.

So Ireland needs to leave the EU to keep the open boarder then. How does England plan to force the Irish out of the EU to keep the open boarder?

 

[fagin]

Threaten them with potato blight?

 

[Craig B]

Now you're getting really confused. If Britain doesn't build a hard border and neither do the EU, there wouldn't be anyone at the border to open the suitcase.

But there will be excise duty on whisky? How will it be enforced?

How will we keep Johnnie Foreigner from entering the "Six Counties" after travelling by plane or ferry into "Southern Ireland", and then crossing into Britain, unless there are people either on the Southern Ireland Border, or between the Six Counties and the Island of Britain, with a responsibility to control Johnnie Foreigner's movements, and facilities for performing this task.

 

[Garrison]

They do. Its called the Customs Union and associated Four Freedoms, which we are now demanding we leave and repudiate.

How is this so hard for leavers to understand?

Because it involves dealing with facts and Leavers have a distinct phobia about those. It's a tragic affliction whose symptoms are deafness or outbursts of anger any time someone points out the unpleasant reality of Brexit.

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

Because it involves dealing with facts and Leavers have a distinct phobia about those. It's a tragic affliction whose symptoms are deafness or outbursts of anger any time someone points out the unpleasant reality of Brexit.

Indeed, even below Ceptimus struggles with simple facts. There was a hard border between Ireland and the UK from the creation of the Irish Free State until 1993 because Ireland was part of an organisation that frowned on that kind of thing.(WP)
The border was always open for people, the one thing Ceptimus wants to stop moving freely in and out of the UK

The open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland existed long before the EU.

 

[Craig B]

The open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland existed long before the EU.

There was no passport control, but there was a customs barrier. There was no passport control because of the Common Travel Area which worked because neither RoI nor the U.K. were in an EU, therefore they could coordinate their immigration rules, so that permission to enter one country implied qualification to enter the other.

Now try to grasp this: if one country has freedom of movement within the EU and the other doesn't, then it is impossible to have a Common Travel Area, isn't it. Say you understand this. It has been pointed out repeatedly.

Even before the EU came along, there were customs controls and barriers on the Border. The EU obviated the necessity for this, but that will change when the Uk leaves, won't it?

 

[ponderingturtle]

There was no passport control, but there was a customs barrier. There was no passport control because of the Common Travel Area which worked because neither RoI nor the U.K. were in an EU, therefore they could coordinate their immigration rules, so that permission to enter one country implied qualification to enter the other.

Now try to grasp this: if one country has freedom of movement within the EU and the other doesn't, then it is impossible to have a Common Travel Area, isn't it. Say you understand this. It has been pointed out repeatedly.

Even before the EU came along, there were customs controls and barriers on the Border. The EU aoviated the necessity for this, but that will change when the Uk leaves, won't it?

Annex Ireland! Once it is no longer a country it will solve the problem nicely.

But none of the brexiters seem to have the guts to do what is nessacary to maintain an open border in Ireland.

 

[jimbob]

Complete nonsense. For Britain not to be guilty of building a hard border they simply don't have to build one. If the hard border is a cake, then we don't have a cake at the moment and Britain has stated that it won't bake any such cake.

From Badscience:

May and the government have already promised the EU that the UK will stay permanently aligned with the Internal Market and the Customs Union.

We agreed that, as part of the deal to complete phase 1 of the negotiations.

In the absence of agreed solutions [to the NI/Ireland border], the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

They can keep looking for the Magic Solution that gets round this requirement, but they will never ever find it because it doesn't exist.

Northern Ireland can't be in full alignment with the Internal Market and Customs Union without there either being a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK (unacceptable to the DUP and problematic for the rests of the UK too) or the UK remaining also aligned to the Internal Market and Customs Union. It is very difficult to be independent from something that you are pledged to align to. Which is what May seems to want.

 

[ceptimus]

It seems you're all saying that the EU will have to impose a hard border where their member country, Ireland, meets Northern Ireland.

If the EU is going to impose a hard border why is it asking that the UK make a legal commitment not to do so? This makes no sense.


If the EU doesn't impose a hard border and neither does the UK then guess what, there won't be a hard border! I don't see why you're all struggling to understand this. Yes you will be able to transport goods across the border - including cigarettes and wine. So what? This is no change from the current situation that seems to be working perfectly well.

 

[jimbob]

Annex Ireland! Once it is no longer a country it will solve the problem nicely.

But none of the brexiters seem to have the guts to do what is nessacary to maintain an open border in Ireland.

Well that is still not what the UK government has agreed. A United Ireland would *technically* work, but be unacceptable to the Conservative and Unionist Party and it's minor partner, the DUPe.

 

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/961344126687043585

Sky News passed all sectoral figures in Brexit impact assessment prepared by Govt officials for Cabinet

Internal estimates “non-tariff barriers” costs by sector - ranging as high as 13% for cars, 20% retail... measure of non-frictionless trade with Europe...more at 9pm

Picture of more detailed table at the tweet

 

[jimbob]

https://news.sky.com/story/new-brexit-leak-reveals-steep-costs-for-uk-industries-11240583

Tariff equivalent of non-tariff barrier costs, by sector:

:: Machinery, equipment and energy: 2% to 6%
:: Chemical, rubber and plastic: 6% to 12%
:: Other manufacturing: 5% to 12%
:: Motor vehicles: 5% to 13%
:: Food and drink: 8% to 16%
:: Agriculture: 8% to 17%
:: Construction: 0%
:: Business services: 0% to 6%
:: Other services: 2% to 10%
:: Financial services: 5% to 10%
:: Defence, education and health: 6% to 16%
:: Retail and wholesale: 7% to 20%

 

[ceptimus]

Remember, the UK doesn't want any barriers to trade - neither tariff nor non-tariff. If there are any barriers then it will be the EU that imposes them. Such barriers will hurt the EU as well as the UK, but if that's what the EU decrees then the UK can't do much about it.

 

[Andy_Ross]

If there are no barriers then we must be in a customs alliance which means we comply with EU regs and rules.

Why is that hard to understand?

 

[ceptimus]

If there are no barriers then we must be in a customs alliance which means we comply with EU regs and rules.

Why is that hard to understand?

Because it doesn't make any sense. It's like saying if we eat toast then we must be in a yellow room - there's no logical connection between the two statements.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Because to sell in to Europe we have to produce goods that comply with European rules and regs.
No barriers between Northern Ireland and the Republic means free movement of people.

What's hard to understand?

 

[fagin]

No, it isn't.

It's like saying if you want to eat toast you need to pay for the bread

ETA replying to our resident brexiter, obviously, not Biggles.