Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[Strawberry]

No funding in the budget for customs or border systems.

But £3 billion set aside for dealing with Brexit, from which customs etc could be funded.

 

[Andy_Ross]

A drop in the ocean.

 

[Information Analyst]

Were they really that divorced from reality? Businesses staying or leaving sure, but the EU keeping regulatory agencies in place?

I've had a few lively discussions on Quora with Leavers who seemed to think the EU keeping its institutions in the UK was perfectly sensible and inevitable, because... e-mail/teleconferencing.

 

[ddt]

Great Britain (and again this is an outsider looking in) never struck me as being all the comfortable in the EU and from what I can gather had an awful lot of exceptions to a lot of EU rules already.

Which is, again, kind of what I'm having a hard time getting around. Any issues Great Britain had with the EU they probably had enough negotiating power to negotiate another asterisks to put next to their name.

And apparently there was already a proposal already along those lines in the works that got shelved when Brexit happened.

TBH, no, there wasn't. David Cameron did negotiate with the EU, a few months before the referendum, for further special treatment but the EU would have no more of the already near-infinite number of rebates, opt-outs and other asterisks the UK enjoyed.

 

[ddt]

It's almost like the author forgot what he wrote in article 50



See the bit about taking account of the framework for its future relationship? That's the part the EU negotiators have thus far refused to engage with. Like all corrupt officials they want to first settle on the size of the bribe necessary to get them to begin their actual work.

No, he doesn't forget it, and he actually mentions it. He also says that "framework" is a rather fluid term and doesn't mean a treaty that's dealt out to the last detail.

Apart from that, the divorce bill is really independent of any future framework. And in another main sticking point, where May could show she has a vision for that future relationship - the Irish border question - she merely shows that she's completely divorced from reality.

 

[ceptimus]

If and when the UK offers an extra twenty billion to the EU, we'll see how bothered they really are about the Irish border issue.

 

[Strawberry]

If and when the UK offers an extra twenty billion to the EU, we'll see how bothered they really are about the Irish border issue.

Yes we will, and if the EU stabs us in the back, we'll also see whether or not the Irish government are capable of standing up for Ireland's national interests.

Be careful what you wish for, because if the EU do to Ireland what the Brexit fans are hoping they will do, politics in Ireland could take a turn for the sinister.

 

[ceptimus]

I certainly don't think we should offer the EU any more money - we've already given them far too much.

I've long advocated in this thread and its predecessors that we should walk away from the time wasting negotiations, get out of the EU as soon as is practically possible and pay them no more than they can prove legally that we owe (or maybe they will have to pay us something).

But, of course, it's not up to me - and it seems that our government is about to increase the size of the payment that they'll offer in order to begin negotiations (that will probably lead nowhere) to trade as freely as possible. You couldn't make it up.

 

[jimbob]

Yes we will, and if the EU stabs us in the back, we'll also see whether or not the Irish government are capable of standing up for Ireland's national interests.

Be careful what you wish for, because if the EU do to Ireland what the Brexit fans are hoping they will do, politics in Ireland could take a turn for the sinister.

The main problem I can see is that the DUP wants a set of conditions that are mutually incompatible as long as you assume that Ireland remains in the customs union... and they have to face it,I really see no reason for Ireland to mess their economy even more just to satisfy some religious nutjobs who have prrached hatred against them within living memory.

 

[Andy_Ross]

If and when the UK offers an extra twenty billion to the EU, we'll see how bothered they really are about the Irish border issue.

Extremely bothered.

 

[Hubert Cumberdale]

TBH, no, there wasn't. David Cameron did negotiate with the EU, a few months before the referendum, for further special treatment but the EU would have no more of the already near-infinite number of rebates, opt-outs and other asterisks the UK enjoyed.

Quite vitriolic there.

Its not like the UK was/is the only country to employ opt-outs and "other asterisks". Its not the only country not to sign up to the Euro or Schengen, it didn't restrict free movement of people from new member states, nor has it repeatedly breached deficit/surplus spending rules, or suspended FOM when the migrant crisis got a bit hairy for its internal politics, or simply unilaterally refused to tolerate FOM full stop.

 

[Strawberry]

The main problem I can see is that the DUP wants a set of conditions that are mutually incompatible as long as you assume that Ireland remains in the customs union... and they have to face it,I really see no reason for Ireland to mess their economy even more just to satisfy some religious nutjobs who have prrached hatred against them within living memory.

Theresa May is not the first PM to find herself in a situation where the only sensible policy forces her into a showdown with the NI unionists. Margaret Thatcher had to do it with the Anglo-Irish Agreement, John Major and Tony Blair had to do it at various stages of the peace process.

Either that or she'll have to upset Brexiters all over the UK by keeping the entire country in the customs union.

 

[jimbob]

Extremely bothered.

And as Ireland has a veto, it's a bit of a moot point.

"That's 26 in favour and 1 against, the nays have it"

 

[jimbob]

Theresa May is not the first PM to find herself in a situation where the only sensible policy forces her into a showdown with the NI unionists. Margaret Thatcher had to do it with the Anglo-Irish Agreement, John Major and Tony Blair had to do it at various stages of the peace process.

Either that or she'll have to upset Brexiters all over the UK by keeping the entire country in the customs union.

Yes it's a given that the DUP can't get their mutually contradictory demands so will be upset (but that's a very minor upside to the whole fiasco). It is an extra twist that the DUP is propping up the Government.

 

[Strawberry]

Yes it's a given that the DUP can't get their mutually contradictory demands so will be upset (but that's a very minor upside to the whole fiasco). It is an extra twist that the DUP is propping up the Government.

The best thing that could happen is for this government to fall and be replaced by Labour who, whatever their faults, wouldn't be beholden to the DUP.

 

[abaddon]

Yes it's a given that the DUP can't get their mutually contradictory demands so will be upset (but that's a very minor upside to the whole fiasco). It is an extra twist that the DUP is propping up the Government.

Even the dogs in the street know that, but I'm not sure the DUP do.

 

[ddt]

Quite vitriolic there.

Its not like the UK was/is the only country to employ opt-outs and "other asterisks". Its not the only country not to sign up to the Euro or Schengen, it didn't restrict free movement of people from new member states, nor has it repeatedly breached deficit/surplus spending rules, or suspended FOM when the migrant crisis got a bit hairy for its internal politics, or simply unilaterally refused to tolerate FOM full stop.

While a bit hyperbolic, Britain is certainly front-runner when it comes to opt-outs. There are only three other countries with opt-outs, and I doubt Ireland would be on that list were it not for the UK and the CTA. The restrictions on free movement from Poland etc. when they joined were temporary for a few years only. While the UK has not been as restrictive as various Eastern-European countries in the current migrant crisis, the numbers it has been willing to accept were laughably low compared to countries like Sweden, Germany or the Netherlands.

And there's always the rebate. "I want my money back".

 

[Aber]

And there's always the rebate. "I want my money back".

Technically other countries have rebates too.

If you want to understand the British one, look at % employed in agriculture in each EU country. The British rebate was to balance the benefits other countries get from the CAP.

 

[jimbob]

The best thing that could happen is for this government to fall and be replaced by Labour who, whatever their faults, wouldn't be beholden to the DUP.

Yes.

The DUP has been toxic since before I was born.

As an aside Dervla Murphy wrote about attending one of Ian Senior's sermons at the start of the Troubles, and she said that he almost convinced her to go out and attack Irish Catholics just like her.

 

[Garrison]

But, of course, it's not up to me - and it seems that our government is about to increase the size of the payment that they'll offer in order to begin negotiations (that will probably lead nowhere) to trade as freely as possible. You couldn't make it up.

This is entirely on the heads of you and everyone else who voted Brexit. People who voted for a fantasy of having their cake and eating it and those like yourself motivated by nothing more than xenophobia have really given up the right to complain when it turns out that the Remainers were correct about what an ugly expensive process this would be with nothing but a wrecked economy to show for it at the end.