Brexit: Now What? Part III

[Garrison]

Working together for the good of the country is the lamest excuse not to hold those in power liable for their actions ever devised and one of the most widely used too. Supporting the government that brought about Brexit and made it extra bad for the country is as much working together for the good of the country as supporting Trump in his antics is working for the good of the country.

It's especially true when May and her merry band can offer not one positive scenario for Brexit. Being willing to embrace a hard Brexit is not working for the good of the country, that should be the point where they admit they can't get the magical deal they promised during the referendum campaign and look to see how they can back out of this whole sorry process.

 

[The Don]

Oh FFS, more cake eating and wanting to have it. Now the UK government wants all the benefits of EU membership (free movement of trade) without having to follow the rules AND whilst being able to negotiate separate trade deals with third parties.

Cloud Cuckooland doesn't even begin to cover it

According to the newly-published government paper, the UK could ask Brussels to establish a "temporary customs union" after it leaves the EU in March 2019.

But during this period, it would also expect to be able to negotiate its own international trade deals - something it cannot do as an EU customs union member.

Once this period expires, the UK will look to agree either a "highly streamlined" border with the EU, or a new "partnership" with no customs border at all.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40922177

 

[GlennB]

The number of British retirees looking to live in the EU doubled in the past year.

Some leave voters definitely weren't joking about having their cake and eating it too.

McHrozni

tbh screwing over their children and grandchildren seems to have been the baby boomers' MO for some time now

Why should this be any different ?Take their defined benefits occupational pensions, their triple locked state pensions (taken at 60 and 65), use their EU rights and leave their children and grandchildren to pay for it all.

It's a mystery to me why these people are in a hurry to emigrate to the EU. We made this move 10 years ago and it has become a source of daily worry. Perhaps it's notably wealthy people that are dashing for a home in the EU? For everyday folks there are concerns:

- State pensions might lose their inflation-proofing (as happens to those retired in non-EU countries)

- EU reciprocal health care for the retired (the S1 system) might be lost.

- The automatic right to reside could be lost, leaving Brits to follow the existing guidelines for non-EU citizens. In the case of Greece this means (theoretically) demonstrating competence in the language - among other things - and would mean regularly attending a recognised course. The study and exam are not a worry for us but the nearest town running that course is a 3-hour round trip from here.

- Hostility. We've already had one or two minor bureaucrats make life difficult by claiming that we're "not European" any more.

There are other benefits that could be lost that don't immediately spring to mind, but for we Bs those above are worry enough, especially the first two.

 

[The Don]

It's a mystery to me why these people are in a hurry to emigrate to the EU. We made this move 10 years ago and it has become a source of daily worry. Perhaps it's notably wealthy people that are dashing for a home in the EU? For everyday folks there are concerns:

- State pensions might lose their inflation-proofing (as happens to those retired in non-EU countries)

- EU reciprocal health care for the retired (the S1 system) might be lost.

- The automatic right to reside could be lost, leaving Brits to follow the existing guidelines for non-EU citizens. In the case of Greece this means (theoretically) demonstrating competence in the language - among other things - and would mean regularly attending a recognised course. The study and exam are not a worry for us but the nearest town running that course is a 3-hour round trip from here.

- Hostility. We've already had one or two minor bureaucrats make life difficult by claiming that we're "not European" any more.

There are other benefits that could be lost that don't immediately spring to mind, but for we Bs those above are worry enough, especially the first two.

All of these are worryingly valid points, and I question whether those rushing to retire to the EU are taking them into account.

My view on this is that those who are rushing to retire to the EU are blissfully unaware of the risks that Brexit poses to their retirement, are hoping that the UK will have its cake and eat it and so retain all its privileges, or think that this is a "shot to nothing" and that worst case they can move back home - underestimating the hassle involved in doing so.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

All of these are worryingly valid points, and I question whether those rushing to retire to the EU are taking them into account.

My view on this is that those who are rushing to retire to the EU are blissfully unaware of the risks that Brexit poses to their retirement, are hoping that the UK will have its cake and eat it and so retain all its privileges, or think that this is a "shot to nothing" and that worst case they can move back home - underestimating the hassle involved in doing so.

On the other hand, option B is staying in the UK. I can see the attraction.

 

[The Don]

On the other hand, option B is staying in the UK. I can see the attraction.

Sure, but if your state pension is frozen as a result and/or if you have to bear your own medical costs (or at least carry sufficient insurance) then that will significantly affect the economics of your retirement.

If your host country introduced tricky residency requirements (including - heaven forfend, having to learn the local lingo and something about the country :rolleyes) then your idyllic retirement plans could soon be in tatters.

 

[Henri McPhee]

I can't see why there can't still be a competitive common market without all this European Political Union baloney. That's what the public voted for in 1974 and in 2016.

 

[The Don]

I can't see why there can't still be a competitive common market without all this European Political Union baloney. That's what the public voted for in 1974 and in 2016.

There's European Political Union ?

The single most important factor in the Brexit vote, the movement of people, is completely tied into the common market.

If you are going to have a common market then you are going to need common standards (of a range of things including product specifications, workers' rights and environmental protections) and a common legal framework in which the members of that common market can operate. These are all things that Brexit enthusiasts have railed against.

I'm interested to hear how you think a "common market" can be achieved without all of the things that the Brexiteers have complained about......

...I shall not hold my breath though.


And of course the government with its usual Brexit-related incompetence has been focused on the small (and shrinking) parts of our economy that deal with manufacturing, agriculture and fishing. The seem to be completely ignoring the service sector that accounts for 80% of the economy (and something like 200% of the economic growth).


edited to add......

Some people may have voted for a "common market" in 2016 but it was by no means a consensus position (indeed there was no Brexit consensus presented) and if they did vote for it they were fools because it's impossible.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I can't see why there can't still be a competitive common market without all this European Political Union baloney. That's what the public voted for in 1974 and in 2016.

Because in order to have a common market you need to have standardisation and commonality of things to make it work. It's really not rocket science so perhaps the public are idiots?

 

[Garrison]

A common market has to cover goods, services and people, it's this simple principle that May and co. fail to grasp.

 

[The Don]

It's not floundering around incompetently, apparently it's "constructive ambiguity"

The Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union tells the Today programme the Brexit process so far has gone "incredibly well". He said the lack of clarity over what the government plan is intentional, calling it "constructive ambiguity".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-40934771/david-davis-brexit-is-going-incredibly-well

Meanwhile a quick fact check confirms that the government seem to be optimistic to the point of delusion

So what happens then? There are two answers.

First answer: a brand new "streamlined" customs border with the EU. Some magic ? combination of technology, negotiation, unilateral rule changes would make for a whizzy low-friction border.

Many will say that even if this new system works, it will find it hard to beat what we have now. Others will say that a tiny bit of extra work at the border is a price worth paying for freedom to cut new trade deals.

Second answer: a new partnership based on a "shared approach" that would remove the need for a customs border altogether.

That option has most experts scratching their heads. Whatever it is, it does not exist between the EU and anyone else right now (with the possible exception in a limited way of Turkey), and so is hard to analyse.

(my contribution highlighted)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40931699

 

[Information Analyst]

It's Tuscany of course. A "bolthole" is a place of refuge into which a small animal can escape, or "bolt", when chased by a predator. A rabbit's burrow, for example. But figuratively it may refer, as it does here, to a holiday destination. Is it not ironic, that British xenophobes who wish to exclude foreigners from the U.K. nevertheless take their own holidays in Tuscany?

I would think your average Brexiter would be more likely to have Costa bolthole, rather than a Tuscany (or Algarve, or Provence, etc.) one.

 

[Information Analyst]

The article also shows where the crux of the problem lies.

Finding the public's view on what Brexit should look like has proven a tricky task for pollsters and politicians, as many of the technical issues and tradeoffs are not well understood. As an example, one poll showed 88% of the public supporting free trade with the EU post-Brexit, while 69% wanted customs checks at the border – a directly contradictory position, meaning at least 57% of respondents had said they supported both open and closed borders.

They tried to tackle this by asking more specific questions, but they failed because they thought the crux of the problem is not in public supporting contradictory positions on Brexit. This is but a symptom of problem, the real problem is the pervasive and utter ignorance about what the issues of Brexit and possible solutions are. If at least 57% of the population is unable to discern those two options as mutually exclusive then no more than 43% of the population had the ability to answer those questions in a meaningful way in the first place.

There was a similar result in a poll in the run-up to the referendum, in which a majority thought Brits should have free movement in Europe, and a majority thought Europeans should not have free movement in the UK. Whole swathes of the population clearly are as thick as pig **** on the details.

 

[Information Analyst]

Yeah, I know. You Brits are weird, but are you weird enough to accept these levels of ineptitude as being the work of nefarious Europeans?

Well, that's the line most of the press have been pushing for years. It's like the way the front cover of the Daily Mail today was shrieking that the chimes of Big Ben being switched off during four years for renovations is "health and safety gone mad," as if not subjecting workers in close proximity to 1-12 x 118 decibels every hour is a "bad thing."

 

[Tolls]

Well, that's the line most of the press have been pushing for years. It's like the way the front cover of the Daily Mail today was shrieking that the chimes of Big Ben being switched off during four years for renovations is "health and safety gone mad," as if not subjecting workers in close proximity to 1-12 x 118 decibels every hour is a "bad thing."

I couldn't believe that when I saw it.
The sheer ignorance, or should I say the sheer ignorance they want to instil in their readership, is astounding.

In any case, it's not as if it hasn't been shut off before for maintenance work.

 

[jimbob]

There was a similar result in a poll in the run-up to the referendum, in which a majority thought Brits should have free movement in Europe, and a majority thought Europeans should not have free movement in the UK. Whole swathes of the population clearly are as thick as pig **** on the details.

That's unfair on the product of your avatar.

Meanwhile my dad was utterly bemused by the fact that most of his friends voted for Leave. Including my godfather, who when he asked me how my job was going, and I mentioned that it was fine at the moment but there is a bit of uncertainty due to Brexit and the fact that we export almost all our product, said, "well I think it's still probably for the best", but was unable to articulate how or why - except what seems to be emotional attachment to remnants of Empire. Personally, I think it is because they are conflating their good health and youthful vigour of their 20's with the state of the country.

 

[GlennB]

Sure, but if your state pension is frozen as a result and/or if you have to bear your own medical costs (or at least carry sufficient insurance) then that will significantly affect the economics of your retirement.

If your host country introduced tricky residency requirements (including - heaven forfend, having to learn the local lingo and something about the country :rolleyes) then your idyllic retirement plans could soon be in tatters.

Yeah. Maybe this new wave of wannabe of expats just assume that residence conditions will remain as they were pre-referendum and now is the time to make the move, before it's too late?

I have no such confidence, especially considering the incompetence being demonstrated by the bunch of muppets that are running the UK side of the show.

 

[McHrozni]

England was copying a neighbour who had the same idea four years previously.

1638: Signing of the National Covenant in Scotland
1642: ... Parliament passes the Militia Bill which, in effect, seizes control of the London arsenal and places the trainbands and militia under its authority.​

I was thinking more along the lines of Magna Carta, centuries earlier.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Today the UK Government it going to release its plans for the post-Brexit Irish border.

We're out of the EU, out of the EEA, out of the customs union but apparently there will be a completely open border with Ireland and no additional customs border at the Irish Sea.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40941393

IMO it merely shows that they haven't got a clue and are merely producing a wish list of mutually exclusive points.

 

[McHrozni]

Today the UK Government it going to release its plans for the post-Brexit Irish border.

We're out of the EU, out of the EEA, out of the customs union but apparently there will be a completely open border with Ireland and no additional customs border at the Irish Sea.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40941393

IMO it merely shows that they haven't got a clue and are merely producing a wish list of mutually exclusive points.

It shows they haven't come out of propaganda mode at all. They share that similarity with Trump, but there's a difference - Trump intends to face the electorate again in just over 3 years, Brexit doesn't. That makes them significantly less capable than Trump.

McHrozni