In the past I have accused the Conservatives of wanting to take us back to the '50s, I had no idea it was the 1750's
Star chamber next!
McHrozni
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Star chamber next!
McHrozni
Aepervius
Non credunt, semper verificare
So it is a hung parliement. What do you think the impact will be ? This certainly shows the mandate may thought she had, or even touted at the eu negociators (which tgey did not particularly care) , seems to have evaporated. Thought on the impact on brexit ?
The two largest parties are now pro-Brexit so IMO (and sadly) Brexit will continue.
The fact that the Brexit vote didn't seem to have as much impact on the election result may mean that some Remain MPs may be emboldened even if their own constituencies voted Leave. This could result in a somewhat softer Brexit than May and the Conservatives have been pushing for.
Then again, the only reason they're the largest party is because a lot of UKIPpers have come back into the Conservative fold so they are even more dependent on the so-called "swivel-eyed loons" and so perversely we could see a hardening of the Brexit position.
If the UK government is hung - and hence unstable - then we could be facing another election in the autumn. That means that 1/4 of the article 50 time is up and we may not even be in a position to start negotiations - or we may have to restart. It really is an utter shambles - but sadly what we've come to expect
.
tl;dr version - dunno, could go either way
The fact that the Brexit vote didn't seem to have as much impact on the election result may mean that some Remain MPs may be emboldened even if their own constituencies voted Leave. This could result in a somewhat softer Brexit than May and the Conservatives have been pushing for.
Then again, the only reason they're the largest party is because a lot of UKIPpers have come back into the Conservative fold so they are even more dependent on the so-called "swivel-eyed loons" and so perversely we could see a hardening of the Brexit position.
If the UK government is hung - and hence unstable - then we could be facing another election in the autumn. That means that 1/4 of the article 50 time is up and we may not even be in a position to start negotiations - or we may have to restart. It really is an utter shambles - but sadly what we've come to expect
.tl;dr version - dunno, could go either way
Imagine how Brazillians feel every 7/1 (or 1/7 for Americans) since 2014.
That's where Brexit is right now.
McHrozni
If the UK government is hung - and hence unstable - then we could be facing another election in the autumn. That means that 1/4 of the article 50 time is up and we may not even be in a position to start negotiations - or we may have to restart. It really is an utter shambles - but sadly what we've come to expect
The more shambolic it is the greater the chance of backslash becoming important. Yes, both parties are Brexitards right now but as it becomes clearer and clearer neither is in a position to make Brexit a success (both because of their competing visions and because it is such a difficult task) the more chance there is of someone breaking from the mold and stopping this nonsense.
What you emphatically don't' want right now is what Theresa May failed at so miserably - a strong, stable government, hell-bent on Brexit, come hell or high water.
McHrozni
Since the only party the Tories will be able to form a coalition with is the DUP, and the price of that is a soft Brexit (issues over the border, single market, etc etc), then there's no chance of the out-out-out we were all fearing. Labour want to keep us in the single market.
I think there'll be another election sooner rather than later, though. Europe is still a big split with the Tories.
I think there'll be another election sooner rather than later, though. Europe is still a big split with the Tories.
The DUP would want a super-diamond-hard Brexit IMO and would also want a reversal of domestic socially liberal policies, in N.I. at least.
Are you sure about that?
DUP leader Arlene Foster has said: “No-one wants to see a ‘hard’ Brexit, what we want to see is a workable plan to leave the European Union, and that’s what the national vote was about – therefore we need to get on with that.
“However, we need to do it in a way that respects the specific circumstances of Northern Ireland, and, of course, our shared history and geography with the Republic of Ireland.
"No-one wants to see a hard border, Sinn Fein talk about it a lot, but nobody wants a hard border.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...liament-UK-election-Democratic-Unionist-Party
Express as a Brexitard propaganda rag wouldn't lie about how soft-Brexitard DUP is, I think.
McHrozni
As McHrozni says, the DUP have already laid out their stall, and a hard Brexit is most definitely not on the cards.
Of course, a coalition with such a tiny majority is going to be vulnerable to the ever-present Tory splits over Europe.
3point14
Pi
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- Nov 4, 2005
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- 23,212
This makes interesting reading
http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-05/nigel-farage-brexit-ukip-russia-contacts/komplettansicht
http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-05/nigel-farage-brexit-ukip-russia-contacts/komplettansicht
Farage sure knows how to provide 'evidence' by assertions.
And little else, apparently.
McHrozni
What election??? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40171454
The border is the only thing they are not diamond hard on. They want out of the EEA and out of the customs union and their attitudes towards LBGT means they don't like the ECHR either.
They want some magic Brexit deal with a soft border but none of the pre-requisites for it. As far as I can see, the only way that would happen is if Ireland also leaves the EU
Hlafordlaes
Disorder of Kilopi
The Brexit I'd like to see and why:
- Full determination of the financial accounting of complete separation of the UK from the EU. The accounts payable/receivable figure and the existence of it becomes the identifiable "fact" that Brexit, indeed, occurs, and is given a timestamp. Apart from any formal agreements signalling full legal Brexit, which might be confused with the new negotiations, this hard number (and its PR) stops any future claims of fraudulent or incomplete Brexit, and makes negotiations in a sense freer to explore. Ideally, regarding whatever the pending accounts payable or receivable figure may be, the parties may agree to net it against the agreements they are already able to make at any level, making payment, when it occurs, feel less punitive for either party. An amicable parting done in a sober yet gentlemanly manner.
- Initially, trade under WTO rules for any items, industries or services excluded from immediate agreements prior to the two year deadline, such as on integrated industrial supply chains.
- Broad negotiation for better-than WTO broad market access by a trademark agreement focusing on each of the four freedoms. This allows the UK to erect a barrier to the free movement of persons to the point at which the pain of lesser access equals the pleasure of the "wall." This forms the limiting factor in how far agreements on all other freedoms may go.
The hope is that while Britain may regain access in some broad form, it can retain its singular preferences, the advantage sought, yet without having say in broader EU policy of any kind: no tail wagging the dog. The UK-EU relation, post a true full Brexit, is free to explore its point of mutual interest without eternally hindering progress on internal EU matters. Long term, if both sides are truly wise, they will make the UK framework agreement a model for not only future arrangements with others, but as a potential "escape hatch" from the EU any state might then take, yet remain integrated in a fashion, making the specter of a rapid and destabilizing disintegration of Europe recede. This perspective allows security and defense cooperation to continue apace, or even intensify. The reason for this last, sadly, is because the UK must now decide to remain, and be more of, a leading partner in Europe, or a voiceless vassal in the on/off, good cop/GOP American empire.
From a continental perspective, I'd rather see the UK become a lead partner in a sadly necessary rebuilding of European military power. Wish it weren't truly needed, and that the very idea were dumb crap from the 20th century, but it seems all the lessons were forgotten, and here we are, boom-busting economically and talking trade wars. Been there, seen that, holy ****.
- Full determination of the financial accounting of complete separation of the UK from the EU. The accounts payable/receivable figure and the existence of it becomes the identifiable "fact" that Brexit, indeed, occurs, and is given a timestamp. Apart from any formal agreements signalling full legal Brexit, which might be confused with the new negotiations, this hard number (and its PR) stops any future claims of fraudulent or incomplete Brexit, and makes negotiations in a sense freer to explore. Ideally, regarding whatever the pending accounts payable or receivable figure may be, the parties may agree to net it against the agreements they are already able to make at any level, making payment, when it occurs, feel less punitive for either party. An amicable parting done in a sober yet gentlemanly manner.
- Initially, trade under WTO rules for any items, industries or services excluded from immediate agreements prior to the two year deadline, such as on integrated industrial supply chains.
- Broad negotiation for better-than WTO broad market access by a trademark agreement focusing on each of the four freedoms. This allows the UK to erect a barrier to the free movement of persons to the point at which the pain of lesser access equals the pleasure of the "wall." This forms the limiting factor in how far agreements on all other freedoms may go.
The hope is that while Britain may regain access in some broad form, it can retain its singular preferences, the advantage sought, yet without having say in broader EU policy of any kind: no tail wagging the dog. The UK-EU relation, post a true full Brexit, is free to explore its point of mutual interest without eternally hindering progress on internal EU matters. Long term, if both sides are truly wise, they will make the UK framework agreement a model for not only future arrangements with others, but as a potential "escape hatch" from the EU any state might then take, yet remain integrated in a fashion, making the specter of a rapid and destabilizing disintegration of Europe recede. This perspective allows security and defense cooperation to continue apace, or even intensify. The reason for this last, sadly, is because the UK must now decide to remain, and be more of, a leading partner in Europe, or a voiceless vassal in the on/off, good cop/GOP American empire.
From a continental perspective, I'd rather see the UK become a lead partner in a sadly necessary rebuilding of European military power. Wish it weren't truly needed, and that the very idea were dumb crap from the 20th century, but it seems all the lessons were forgotten, and here we are, boom-busting economically and talking trade wars. Been there, seen that, holy ****.
The DUP don't know what they want. Their manifesto calls for both a hard Brexit plus a FTA and no hard border with Ireland and no checks for NI citizens entering the U.K. This is just one contradiction after the other. On the other hand it is well known that Arlene Foster is one of the many NI citizens who have already claimed their right to an Irish Passport
However, Theresa May is now going to have to please not just the DUP but the 13 Scottish Tory MPs who don't want curbs on Scottish immigration and the 8 Tories in Wales who mainly want access to the single market. If those 21 MPs hold the Queens speech to ransom she has no mandate to enter the Brexit negotiations at all.
She came from having a slight majority to slightly lacking a majority. Given the implications she might as well lose 130 seats instead of 13.
Still, she has a mandate to enter Brexit negotiations, she was given that mandate with the bill to trigger A50 last winter. She doesn't have a mandate for out-out-out Brexit, but there is a way she can achieve it nonetheless. Tusk hintef how.
McHrozni
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