Brexit: Now What? Part II

[The Don]

Meanwhile the government are thrashing around trying to come up with a Plan B in the event that the EU doesn't give us everything we want....

Mr Hammond also reiterated his threat - made to German newspaper Welt am Sonntag last week - that the UK could change its "economic model" if it is locked out of the single market after Brexit.

"Our first duty as an elected government is to protect the living standards of our people and that means the competitiveness of our economy," he said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38688786

It's not abundantly clear to me how becoming an offshore tax haven with low standards for environmental protection and an economy based on low-wage, low workers rights and protections will protect the living standards of anyone but the top 1% or so.....

...but then again that was probably the plan in any case...

 

[Andy_Ross]

Meanwhile the government are thrashing around trying to come up with a Plan B in the event that the EU doesn't give us everything we want....



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38688786

It's not abundantly clear to me how becoming an offshore tax haven with low standards for environmental protection and an economy based on low-wage, low workers rights and protections will protect the living standards of anyone but the top 1% or so.....

...but then again that was probably the plan in any case...

Of course it was

 

[Craig B]

Not really IMO.

At least not if you think Brexit will be as damaging as I think it is, and the mandate for Brexit is as weak as it is (and the mandate for Hard Brexit being absent).

Those MPs should stand by their principles (and in many cases the wishes of their constituents) and properly challenge this. For decades Parliament overrode the wishes of the electorate by opposing the death penalty.

In this case IMO they should vote against Brexit to demonstrate that there is actually significant opposition to it and not just the "troublesome Scots" and a handful of LibDems.

This is not the mere "wishes of the electorate" but the outcome of a referendum. I definitely don't want Westminster to get into a habit of subverting the results of such operations.

But I take the point about Hard Brexit, and would like the terms of leaving to be put before the electorate once they are fully negotiated.

 

[The Don]

This is not the mere "wishes of the electorate" but the outcome of a referendum. I definitely don't want Westminster to get into a habit of subverting the results of such operations.

A narrow victory in a non-binding referendum where the alternative to Remain was either not made clear (if we're being kind) or deliberately obfuscated (if we are not).

But I take the point about Hard Brexit, and would like the terms of leaving to be put before the electorate once they are fully negotiated.

...but we know that absolutely is not going to happen.

So I'd like those MPs who really believe that Brexit is a terrifically poor idea to stick to their guns.

If what I fear of Brexit happens, that it triggers a sharp recession from which the UK recovers very slowly and that there is are much longer term implications like:

• Higher government debt (as a consequence of becoming a "low tax" jurisdiction)
• Dastically reduced government services (as a consequence of attempting to tackle the debt)
• One-sided trade deals the resulted from the firesale "rebound" from the EU
• Erosion of workers and environmental protections
• Increased wealth and income inequality (as a result on lower taxes on the 1% and worse pay and conditions for the 99%)

....then as an MP I'd want to be on record not only for abstaining but actually trying to stop the mess happening in the first place.

YMMV

 

[3point14]

Shockingly enough* Jeremy Corbyn is applying a three-line whip to Labour MPs to vote in favour of Brexit.

Wow. That's just shocking.

I'm guessing I'm a libdem now. I might be green. I'll not be voting for anyone that backs this disaster. (not, I hasten to add, that I believe that anyone cares)

 

[The Don]

Wow. That's just shocking.

I'm guessing I'm a libdem now. I might be green. I'll not be voting for anyone that backs this disaster. (not, I hasten to add, that I believe that anyone cares)

.....and if you were previously a Labour supporter then it highlights a big issue of Corbyn's leadership of the party.

Labour voters aren't exactly thick on the ground here in rural Monmouthshire but on the grounds that like tend to attract like I happen to know quite a few - all of whom are strongly anti-Brexit. Moves like this will push people like this into the arms of the LibDems, Greens or Plaid Cymru.

Now you cold argue that the leadership of the Labour Party shouldn't worry too much on people like us, the middle-aged and middle-class, and instead focus on the young and working class but then again it's been people like us who have dipped significantly into our pockets over the years and had the time and energy to go out campaigning on wet Tuesday evenings in February.

 

[Lothian]

Now you cold argue that the leadership of the Labour Party shouldn't worry too much on people like us, the middle-aged and middle-class, and instead focus on the young and working class but then again it's been people like us who have dipped significantly into our pockets over the years and had the time and energy to go out campaigning on wet Tuesday evenings in February.

But you forget, we are becoming a tax haven and they are are warm and sunny*. When we become one, there will be no more cold wet Tuesday evenings.


* eg Mauritius, Seychelles, Maldives, Bahamas, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands etc

 

[Greebo]

Wow. That's just shocking.

I'm guessing I'm a libdem now. I might be green. I'll not be voting for anyone that backs this disaster. (not, I hasten to add, that I believe that anyone cares)

Know the feeling. I've written to my conservative MP asking him to "give me the fact based evidence that will convince me brexit is a good thing, if you can't do that, you can't convince me to vote for you next election". I doubt it will make any difference to him, but leaves me with working out who I vote for.

 

[3point14]

Know the feeling. I've written to my conservative MP asking him to "give me the fact based evidence that will convince me brexit is a good thing, if you can't do that, you can't convince me to vote for you next election". I doubt it will make any difference to him, but leaves me with working out who I vote for.

I have a vague notion that the Libdems will undergo a surprise resurgence, provided they hold the line regarding europe and they're smart enough to keep pointing out that they have always maintained, with sincerity, that it's a lousy idea.

 

[Tolls]

He's apparently now backed off from the three line whip.
Another case of open gob, insert foot.

 

[The Don]

He's apparently now backed off from the three line whip.
Another case of open gob, insert foot.

Demonstrating once again what a poor leader he is.

Someone who seeks to lead by consensus would have taken the temperature inside the party and determined that forcing a three-line whip would likely alienate both significant numbers of MPs and a large section of members and supporters.

Someone who seeks to lead from the front and present a unified party would have attempted to win round those who oppose his view through a combination of sound argument and force of personality leaving behind a tiny rump of opposition which could be safely ignored.

Instead he manages worst of both worlds, he clearly demonstrates that the party is divided (adding to May's sense of security) AND manages to needlessly annoy a large proportion of MPs.

Will someone remind me again why he's a good party leader. I remember someone on the board saying party membership is up (which is good unless the only people left voting Labour are the 600k or so party members) and that he's good for by-elections (though I think that ship has now sailed)

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Will someone remind me again why he's a good party leader.

I think it's something to do with the most people in the party voting for him to lead it. And there being nobody else putting themselves forward that looked any better.

 

[neilg]

Know the feeling. I've written to my conservative MP asking him to "give me the fact based evidence that will convince me brexit is a good thing, if you can't do that, you can't convince me to vote for you next election". I doubt it will make any difference to him, but leaves me with working out who I vote for.

I have done the same to my Conservative MP. To be fair he was a Remain supporter, but I'd like to know his thoughts on the current state of affairs before I decide where my next vote, whenever that is, is going.

 

[wobs]

Wow. That's just shocking.

I'm guessing I'm a libdem now. I might be green. I'll not be voting for anyone that backs this disaster. (not, I hasten to add, that I believe that anyone cares)

I have historically voted for all three main parties at some point, but for the first time I have decided LibDem before a GE has even been called. In fact for the first time I have even told Mrs Wobs who I will be voting for.

Last election, I told no one who I voted for, and was even undecided going into the booth.

Now, its foregone conclusion unless something radical happens, with Labour.

Can't vote Green, as they are too far removed from reality on environmental issues.

 

[Lothian]

Whoopee we are top of America's list for a trade deal that,
Puts America First,
Protects American Jobs and
Brings back jobs to America
Helps Americans buy products made in America.

Let's get the party started. Crack open the champagne Californian sparkling wine.

 

[3point14]

Whoopee we are top of America's list for a trade deal that,
Puts America First,
Protects American Jobs and
Brings back jobs to America
Helps Americans buy products made in America.

Let's get the party started. Crack open the champagne Californian sparkling wine.

Well observed. I shall likely be using this observation in conversation in the near future.

 

[Aepervius]

Whoopee we are top of America's list for a trade deal that,
Puts America First,
Protects American Jobs and
Brings back jobs to America
Helps Americans buy products made in America.

Let's get the party started. Crack open the champagne Californian sparkling wine.

As I said above, it will a trade deal which will be barely different to WTO, or, it will be one opening the door of UK to loads of product which would not have been deemed fit under current rules. Mark my word.

 

[CapelDodger]

Lib Dem leader accuses Labour's Corbyn of giving up over Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...abours-jeremy-corbyn-of-giving-up-over-brexit

Farron hopes that his party’s clear pro-EU position will propel it to an electoral revival, after it snatched a seat from the Conservatives in the Richmond Park byelection and relegated Labour into fourth position in Sleaford.

Setting out his version of the differences between the Lib Dems and Labour, Farron said it was necessary to oppose the Conservatives over Brexit: “It’s not divisive to hold the government to account, and not just to lamely give up as we go over a cliff, and that is what Labour are doing – they are being the most ineffective opposition in living memory.”

If the LibDems can get the pro-EU vote while the anti-EU is split it all becomes about bring down the government and forcing a general election.

 

[dudalb]

How long will Corbyn's defenders here keep ignoring the fact that, his ideology aside, he a horrid leader?

 

[Lothian]

The idea that we can have a limited customs union for things like cars is flawed. Say we have a customs union with Germany on cars and, free of the EU negotiate a free trade agreement with Japan and the USA. Cars from those countries can come tax and tarrif free to the UK then go the same to Germany saving avoiding the 10% tarrif if they went direct. The two key parts of a customs union are free movement inside the union and common tarrifs on entry. We can't have a customs union and negotiate our own free trade deals.