Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Lothian]

I think Spain would prefer that Gibraltar was outside of the EU and the single market. Business that would otherwise prefer to be in Gibraltar would have increased incentive to be in Spain instead.

tbh i think Spain would rather that Gibraltar was inside the EU - by dint of being part of Spain

I very much agree. If the UK takes Gib out, yet another link with Spain is severed.

Gib will go with Britain, it's too handy a tax haven to let it go anywhere else.

Gib is currently inside the EU but is outside the single market. It is complicated. Post Brexit it could be be far easier as it may have the same status as we do, meaning a lot of the businesses which moved there to avoid paying UK tax may come back, or more likely move on to mainland Europe or another tax haven.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It will also be left without any surface to surface missiles by 2018.

I was always very fond of gun battleships, but they're simply ineffective and inefficient for modern warfare. Yet, The Royal Navy is set to rely solely on guns for it's anti-ship operations, akin to removing all naval guns from ships in an earlier era. In the good old days that would (rightfully) mean drawing and quartering of those responsible.

McHrozni

It's not as worrying as it first seems. asurface actions between Destroyers or Frigates isn't very likely, the air and submarine threat is the main concern.
Surface to Surface missiles are not the best weapon for attacking another ship these days. Harpoons wouldn't stand a much of a chance against modern countermeasures, same for most surface to surface missiles., Torpedoes are the best weapon for surface targets at long range or air launch missiles.
I predict the Harpoons will continue in service until the replacement comes on line and the main SS weapon will be the torpedo.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Instead of guns the navy now has aircraft carriers - but also no planes for them, or so I've read. Mmm. What about rams, like the Merrimack?

The cock up with the carriers is entirely down to Cameron. It was planned that the Invincible class would remain in service until the new carriers were operational and the Harriers could be transferred.
Cameron decided to save a few quid by scrapping the Invincibles and Harriers early. Any money he hoped to save was blown by having to pay Italy to use an airbase to stage attacks on Libya and his messing around with the design of the new carriers to let them fly French aircraft, this plan was absndoned after millions had been spent on redesigns of the flight decks and construction halted while they pissed about.

The whole thing should have been a red flag for his competence to govern and a warning about his referendum plans.

 

[Wildy]

We could sell Gibraltar to Spain and use the money to pay off some of the debt.

I hope we get a better deal than when we sold loaned in effect gave away Diego Garcia to the USA.

Yeah, because ignoring a referendum is certainly what the UK should be doing.

 

[ceptimus]

We did a lot worse than that to evict the natives of Diego Garcia so that the USA could have it to themselves. And you must remember that Gibraltar did vote overwhelmingly in a referendum to remain in the EU...

 

[Craig B]

We did a lot worse than that to evict the natives of Diego Garcia so that the USA could have it to themselves. And you must remember that Gibraltar did vote overwhelmingly in a referendum to remain in the EU...

As did Scotland.

 

[abaddon]

It's not as worrying as it first seems. asurface actions between Destroyers or Frigates isn't very likely, the air and submarine threat is the main concern.
Surface to Surface missiles are not the best weapon for attacking another ship these days. Harpoons wouldn't stand a much of a chance against modern countermeasures, same for most surface to surface missiles., Torpedoes are the best weapon for surface targets at long range or air launch missiles.
I predict the Harpoons will continue in service until the replacement comes on line and the main SS weapon will be the torpedo.

Ye gods. I can recall when they were new.

Now I feel old.

 

[Lothian]

Yeah, because ignoring a referendum is certainly what the UK should be doing.

From your link
17,900 people in Gibraltar voted to stay in the UK but

19,322 people in Gibraltar voted to stay in the EU.

They can't have their Magdalenas and eat them. Brexit means Brexit. When the UK leaves do you go with an option that fewer voters in Gibraltar supported or with the option with more voting support?

 

[ceptimus]

As did Scotland.

I wouldn't call the Scotland vote 'overwhelming' - certainly not as overwhelming as the Gibraltar one anyway.

In any case, Spain probably isn't interested in buying Scotland.

 

[Craig B]

I wouldn't call the Scotland vote 'overwhelming' - certainly not as overwhelming as the Gibraltar one anyway.

In any case, Spain probably isn't interested in buying Scotland.

As long as England is interested in selling ...

 

[Andy_Ross]

China has first refusal.

 

[Garrison]

The very same day we get Hammond explaining that the cuts to social services and the NHS are necessary to get the economy in shape for Brexit and because we have that huge deficit to tackle we get May promising businesses they can have tax cuts to help offset any negative impact from Brexit. Good thing no one voted for Brexit thinking it would mean more money for the NHS isn't? I mean think how stupid they would feel...

 

[MCel58]

The very same day we get Hammond explaining that the cuts to social services and the NHS are necessary to get the economy in shape for Brexit and because we have that huge deficit to tackle we get May promising businesses they can have tax cuts to help offset any negative impact from Brexit. Good thing no one voted for Brexit thinking it would mean more money for the NHS isn't? I mean think how stupid they would feel...

This is just part of the May general approach, every time she meets with someone she promises some sort of special deal. So far she has both promised to listen and involve Wales, Scotland and NI and then said that they don't have a role in any real Brexit decisions but they can have a helpline to David Davis. That there will be no hard border in Ireland but that the CTA will be upheld, the Nissan deal, to reduce corporation tax, to put workers on boards, not to put workers on boards, to work for the whole country, to get immigration down, to get a good deal for the city. She is more about sound bites than policy.

 

[McHrozni]

It's not as worrying as it first seems. asurface actions between Destroyers or Frigates isn't very likely, the air and submarine threat is the main concern.
Surface to Surface missiles are not the best weapon for attacking another ship these days. Harpoons wouldn't stand a much of a chance against modern countermeasures, same for most surface to surface missiles., Torpedoes are the best weapon for surface targets at long range or air launch missiles.
I predict the Harpoons will continue in service until the replacement comes on line and the main SS weapon will be the torpedo.

Maybe, but even Harpoons stand a chance against modern countermeasures if they're launched in large numbers. Interceptor missiles and CIWS can be be overwhelmed, and (barring a very successful EW) some missiles would come through. Against the only likely adversary - Russian navy - that would be more than enough, they have about as many ocean-worthy ships as the UK.

Torpedoes are a good option, but their range is way too limited, unless they're fit on a missile for a part of the journey or something like that.

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

Maybe, but even Harpoons stand a chance against modern countermeasures if they're launched in large numbers. Interceptor missiles and CIWS can be be overwhelmed, and (barring a very successful EW) some missiles would come through. Against the only likely adversary - Russian navy - that would be more than enough, they have about as many ocean-worthy ships as the UK.

The problem is very few ships carry many Harpoons (or others) hence overwhelming defenses isn't likely. Plus Russian point defenses, while unsophisticated, are generally very heavy, lots of AK-630s and/or Kashtans.

 

[Greebo]

The very same day we get Hammond explaining that the cuts to social services and the NHS are necessary to get the economy in shape for Brexit and because we have that huge deficit to tackle we get May promising businesses they can have tax cuts to help offset any negative impact from Brexit. Good thing no one voted for Brexit thinking it would mean more money for the NHS isn't? I mean think how stupid they would feel...

Yup - and that £350m is going to cover a whole load of road improvements too.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

You guys are starting to sound like all those experts. We already told you we don't want to be weighed down with facts in all of this.

 

[McHrozni]

The problem is very few ships carry many Harpoons (or others) hence overwhelming defenses isn't likely. Plus Russian point defenses, while unsophisticated, are generally very heavy, lots of AK-630s and/or Kashtans.

They can't carry many, but can launch most of them at once. A Type 45 destroyer carries two quadruple launchers but has no reloads. That's eight missiles, times, say, five destroyers (RN has six) and you have a decent chance of getting 5-10 missiles through. That's enough to cripple if not sink any ship outright, or else inflict severe losses among many ships. The only workable defense against this is EW.

All point-defense systems have a severe flaw in that effectively minimize the damage to the ship when they work, but that's actually all they do. In most cases they will avoid crippling damage from a direct hit, but the blast and missile debris will still impact the vessel with sufficient force to cause notable damage. It will also blind sensors to some extent, making more likely the missile immediately following the intercepted missile to come through. AK-630 has an effective range of up to 5 km (and are probably effective at less than half that), giving them at best twenty seconds to intercept the incoming Harpoons. Blinding sensors for a few seconds is outright crippling in itself in such a situation.

Anti-missile-missiles can be used to reduce the number of incoming missiles, but Russian interceptors leave much to be desired. Therefore Harpoons will remain useful in a naval conflict for some time to come.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Yet more excellent post-Brexit vote news from the Chancellor's Autumn statement:

The OBR expects the economy to grow by 1.4% in 2017, down from the 2.2% it predicted in March.

The growth forecast for this year has been raised slightly to 2.1% from 2.0%.

It expects growth to be 2.4% slower in the next five years as a result of the Brexit vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38078881

Perhaps the migrant "crisis" will be solved by the UK economy being so moribund that there'll be less incentive for people to come here to work

It's good to see that despite all of this, austerity is in abeyance so that the benefits of loosening the purse strings can be attributed to the benefits of Brexit


edited to add (from that same BBC article)....

Mr Hammond confirmed that the government would abandon its target to spend less than it earned in 2019-20, and is now expecting to borrow £21.9bn that year, compared with the £10bn surplus previously forecast.

Well that's just hunky-dory. I'm sure "£350m a week" can more than plug that £32bn shortfall. I mean I know that £350m x 52 is less than £32bn but that's because I'm a maths "expert" and thus can be safely ignored

 

[ceptimus]

BBC is always negative about Brexit. They are very biassed.

The Chancellor also said that Britain will still have one of the fastest growing economies in the world - on a par with Germany but much faster than most other European countries such as France or Italy.