Brexit: Now What? Part II

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The Don said:
It just gets worse and worse :( :mad:

Work permits.....
Paying for visas.....

It's all up for grabs.

Interestingly this highlights that Airfix's position is a minority one:



So there you are - KEEP THOSE FOREIGNERS OUT !!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37332282
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Control of immigration doesn't mean "KEEP THOSE FOREIGNERS OUT !!!"
It means let the people who have the most to offer IN irrespective of their nationality or ethnicity.

Look at how Canada does it, Canada has controls, but you wouldn't accuse them of racism.
 
Airfix said:
Control of immigration doesn't mean "KEEP THOSE FOREIGNERS OUT !!!"
It means let the people who have the most to offer IN irrespective of their nationality or ethnicity.

Look at how Canada does it, Canada has controls, but you wouldn't accuse them of racism.
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Are you actually reading what people are saying? Of course it's about keeping those foreigners out. They want to reduce the number of immigrants to "tens of thousands". They want to reduce the numbers of foreign students. They've dismissed a points based immigration system because they've realised it doesn't let them keep the foreigners out.
 
Airfix said:
Even tens of thousands of immigrants is still foreigners in. ;)
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Actually net it would be a huge outflow. 300,000 people leave the UK to go overseas annually. Presumably it's only fair that these people would be prevented from doing so too?

Tens of thousands a year wouldn't even cover the student visas currently issued. So all those educated young people coming to the UK (the kind of people you say you WANT to attract) will go elsewhere taking their money with them.

Student fees for UK nationals presumably will go up to compensate? Or are they just going to cut back on quality of education and services to student?

And the 150k work visas issued a year? Are you getting to tell the companies they can't hire American, Australian, Indian and Chinese engineers anymore? That was just another leaver lie then?

And no more refugees presumably? They can just be left to the hands of ISIS or rotting in camps.
 
The Don said:
From my perspective, a Norway-style Brexit is the least worst alternative. We'll be worse off (because we'll lose our influence over EU regulation) but at least we'll still have access to our most important export market for our important service industries.
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[ nitpick ] "Lose influence" is putting it a bit too strongly. The EEA countries are consulted on new EU regulations, but they don't get to decide.

Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Actually net it would be a huge outflow. 300,000 people leave the UK to go overseas annually. Presumably it's only fair that these people would be prevented from doing so too?
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I'm too lazy too look it up, but IIRC, there is something in the Council of Europe treaties that says countries cannot prohibit its citizens to leave. Not that that matters to the Tories, as they'd like to join the ranks of Belarus and Kazakhstan who flout European human rights rules.

But there's also the other side: does the EU in that case want those British nationals? On the financial side, the UK would probably be thrown out of the Erasmus student exchange program - as has already happened to Switzerland after their 2014 referendum. For the rest, the EU has done a lot on legislation about equivalence of education in different countries. You can bet that the UK will be thrown out of that too, with the consequence that, say, a British MD, when applying to a job at a hospital in Skopje, will be told that his Oxford degree is not recognized in Macedonia. :)
 
Airfix said:
Control of immigration doesn't mean "KEEP THOSE FOREIGNERS OUT !!!"
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It depends on who you talk to. Sure, businessman may want to make sure that the flow of cheap and/or skilled labour is maintained - but keep families and students out; the education sector wants all those lovely fee paying foreign students but could care less about people who pick sprouts.

The core of the Leave campaign, the Conservative Party (65% of whom voted Leave) and UKIP (98% of whom voted Leave) just don't want "them" coming over here with their foreign ways. It used to be the Irish they objected to, then the Jews then the blacks then the Subcontinentals and now it's Eastern Europeans. They want to keep the white, Christian, English vision of England that they have in their minds.

For a lot of Leave voters it was about stopping immigration, for some it was also about forced deportation.

Airfix said:
It means let the people who have the most to offer IN irrespective of their nationality or ethnicity.
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Who knows what it means, it depends what kind of system we end up with and how it's administered. Any kind of due diligence in terms of the people arriving will have a negative effect on the economy because it will significantly increase the time and expense of recruiting skilled people from abroad.

Sure, there may be a minority of Leave voters who want to "level the playing field" to make it easier for non-EU people to come to the UK but the majority don't want to see so many brown faces or hear those strange accents (and around here that also includes English accents :mad:)

Airfix said:
Look at how Canada does it, Canada has controls, but you wouldn't accuse them of racism.
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The UK has controls too but apparently there are too many of "them" coming here for the taste of the Leave campaigners.
 
ddt said:
I'm too lazy too look it up, but IIRC, there is something in the Council of Europe treaties that says countries cannot prohibit its citizens to leave.
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There is something in the Universal Declaration of Human rights too - article 13, paragraph 2:
Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.

I suppose Brexitards could make an issue about what "to leave" means in this case.

McHrozni
 
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ddt said:
[ nitpick ] "Lose influence" is putting it a bit too strongly. The EEA countries are consulted on new EU regulations, but they don't get to decide.


I'm too lazy too look it up, but IIRC, there is something in the Council of Europe treaties that says countries cannot prohibit its citizens to leave. Not that that matters to the Tories, as they'd like to join the ranks of Belarus and Kazakhstan who flout European human rights rules.

But there's also the other side: does the EU in that case want those British nationals? On the financial side, the UK would probably be thrown out of the Erasmus student exchange program - as has already happened to Switzerland after their 2014 referendum. For the rest, the EU has done a lot on legislation about equivalence of education in different countries. You can bet that the UK will be thrown out of that too, with the consequence that, say, a British MD, when applying to a job at a hospital in Skopje, will be told that his Oxford degree is not recognized in Macedonia. :)
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Yeah Iwasnt suggesting people are stopped in leaving but that if we limit inflows its only fair that is reciprocated and those people will find it hard to get visas where the want to go.

If not you get a net outflow of working age people which isnt good either.
 
Airfix said:
The UK has no indigenous car industry because we moved from selling to countries which did not have their own indigenous car industries and entered into a customs union with countries which often made better cars in the same price bracket and could not compete.
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No. The UK car industry couldn't produce a product as good as the competitors and match the price. This was down to ingrained inefficiency, poor capitalisation and inefficient labour.

Airfix said:
And we'd also started importing Toyotas and Datsuns and could not compete with those either.
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And why was that? Why could other companies build cars on the other wide of the world, ship them to the UK and still undercut British producers?
Efficiency.

Airfix said:
No I am trying 'to sell Ladas to Lada buyers'.
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In many cases you simply can't make the electronics without rare earths. Or you can make an inefficient and bulky knock-off that no-one wants.

Klimax said:
But only few are good for high value items like computers (harddrives and speakers, or EVs. They might no be only, but alternatives are not usable everywhere.
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Exactly.
 
McHrozni said:
You'd be clueless if you got a clue. You're in deficit with clues as it stands, you see.
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You need to calm down and relax. Brexit is not the end of the world.
Trade WILL CONTINUE.
MIGRATION WILL CONTINUE.

NOBODY WANTS A TRADE WAR.

Go get yourself a cup of tea and think about something else and for goodness sake GROW UP.
 
Airfix said:
You call me clueless and then say renewable energy is "expensive" to run ?<snippage of ideological rant>
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No, actually the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change says renewables are more expensive.
 
The Don said:
It just gets worse and worse :( :mad:

Work permits.....
Paying for visas.....

It's all up for grabs.

Interestingly this highlights that Airfix's position is a minority one:



So there you are - KEEP THOSE FOREIGNERS OUT !!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37332282

Despicable...

Edited to add...

Reinforces my opinion that May has always been out-out-out
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Yeah I saw that. It rather undercuts the whole "independence" nonsense.
 
Airfix said:
Control of immigration doesn't mean "KEEP THOSE FOREIGNERS OUT !!!"
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Yes, it really does.

Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Are you actually reading what people are saying? Of course it's about keeping those foreigners out. They want to reduce the number of immigrants to "tens of thousands". They want to reduce the numbers of foreign students. They've dismissed a points based immigration system because they've realised it doesn't let them keep the foreigners out.
Click to expand...
Ah, the phantom students that don't actually exist.
 
Catsmate, manufacturing accounts for the majority of Britain's exports, from JCBs to wind turbines and the majority of Britain's exports do not go to the EU.

The idea that exports are all going to stop is false. The idea that we should look only inwardly to the EU when there is a whole world out there is short sighted.

Of course there is uncertainty at the moment, no deal has yet been done or can be done until article 50 is declared, but there will be a deal.
Our government will be grown up about this and will be respectful.
Both sides will have to be prepared to compromise.
 
Airfix said:
You need to calm down and relax. Brexit is not the end of the world.
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You're correct, but depending on how it's implemented there's a significant risk that the UK economy will suffer a significant reversal as a result.

Airfix said:
Trade WILL CONTINUE.
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Yes it will but our trade with our largest single trading partner (the EU) will continue on terms which at the very best will be no better than what we have at the moment and are likely to be significantly worse, especially for our services industries - the ones currently with the significant trade surplus.

Airfix said:
MIGRATION WILL CONTINUE.
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It will but on a basis which is far more expensive, time consuming and inconvenient for all involved, workers, employers, students, educational establishments, tourists.

You'll note from the last BBC article that I linked that there may have to be a visa waiver scheme with the EU so that families going to the EU will have to pay a fee to exempt them from getting a visa so it'll even be more expensive and inconvenient to go on holiday.

If legal migration is more expensive, complicated and time consuming then that provides added incentive to migrate illegally.

Airfix said:
NOBODY WANTS A TRADE WAR.
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I'm sure that some people do (anti-globalisation activists for a start) but even if we're not looking for a trade war we may end up with one. If we want a deal with Country A then Country B may not like the terms and vice-versa.

We have no recent experience of negotiating trade deals and we will soon desperately need them - not a strong negotiating position.

It's also a false dichotomy, we probably will not end up with a trade was but it is highly likely that we will end up trading terms no better than we currently enjoy and distinctly possible that in many cases we will end up trading on worse terms.

Airfix said:
Go get yourself a cup of tea and think about something else and for goodness sake GROW UP.
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Why, because someone dares to suggest that it's reckless to take such a fundamental decision when not only do we not know what the alternative to the status quo is, there are vastly divergent opinions within the Leave campaign as to what to aim for ?
 
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