Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Belgian thought]

The Conservative MPs will quietly acquiesce to nanny the PM and will wave through the out-out-out deal that Theresa May and industrialists who want to turn the UK into a version of the Philippines just off the European mainland have been craving. The Labour Party will bicker with wiser heads suggesting that Brexit will not usher in the creation of a workers' paradise and the Corbynite wing wasting political capital fighting the political battles of the 1970's

I remember a Govt think tank under Thatcher saying just this - However, if I remember rightly, they chose Singapore as an example.

 

[The Don]

I remember a Govt think tank under Thatcher saying just this - However, if I remember rightly, they chose Singapore as an example.

True, but Singapore is a small city state which can devote itself to high added-value activities. I think that the Philippines is a better model for the UK, a country with a mixed economy.

 

[asydhouse]

True, but Singapore is a small city state which can devote itself to high added-value activities. I think that the Philippines is a better model for the UK, a country with a mixed economy.

And a government led by a right ******** who runs the country with death squads murdering anyone they fancy under the pretext that they are concerned for their health (via a completely bogus anti-drugs war).

Does ring true, sadly.

 

[catsmate]

So now the government swiftly moves into "Titanic deck seating logistics focus group" mode.

By any reasonable standards I'm very comfortably off and so I should be pretty well placed to weather the Brexit storm. My employees are not so lucky but by the directors not taking dividends this we've built up sufficient capital in the business to be able to give each of them 6 months salary in severance should we have to close the doors (we've already had a couple of smaller long-running European contracts nothing renewed specifically because of concerns over Brexit - they've gone to a German competitor).

I say that I *should* be OK. Of course the thing that could change all of that is if, post Brexit, the UK economy goes into 70's style meltdown and "stagflation" as the collapsing value of the pound and import tariffs send inflation into double-digits whilst rising local costs and disadvantageous trade deals mean that UK exports aren't any more competitive (and indeed those to the EU - nearly 50% of exports - are less so) resulting in double-digit drops in GDP, even measured in local currency.

If that happens, a seven-figure nest egg will be very rapidly eroded in value. I'm not suggesting that we'll see post-war Hungary or recent Zimbabwe levels of inflation where savings are worthless but it wouldn't take long with inflation in the 10%-25% for a comfortable retirement to become decidedly precarious, not least because of the pressure to reduce pensions and the defunding of the NHS which will place a greater emphasis on private healthcare (another desirable outcome for those Conservatives who want U.S. healthcare companies to make a killing from the NHS ).

In decades time, when I'm long gone, it wouldn't be surprising to see academics pointing to the actions of the last few months as the point at which the process by which UK became the first (and at the time only) country that started off as a developed nation and through the disasterous policies of its government became a developing nation with a developing nation's problems of poverty, hunger, low life expectancy any everythin else

I could be over-pessimistic but sadly what I've opined on the Brexit and Trump situation to date, even though Cassandra-like, has turned out to be optimistic .

Have you seen the old TV series "1990"? The one with Edward Woodward. It's looking like an accurate prediction now...

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

This is the least of your concerns. The fact Labour acted as cheerleaders for Tories at the critical moment doesn't give them any leverage in the medium or even long term. They voted for it, therefore they share the responsibility for it too.

McHrozni

Aren't labour doing exactly what you suggest is a good idea? They are paying the 'small price' to pander to the deplorables to avoid the inevitable consequences of opposing them. Surely?

 

[The Don]

Have you seen the old TV series "1990"? The one with Edward Woodward. It's looking like an accurate prediction now...

I haven't but looking at Wiki, it seems spookily prescient:

The series is set in a dystopian future in which Britain is under the grip of the Home Office's Public Control Department (PCD), a tyrannically oppressive bureaucracy riding roughshod over the population's civil liberties.

This state of affairs was precipitated by an irrecoverable national bankruptcy in 1983, triggering a de facto state of emergency. In the general election, only 22% voted. The economy (and imports) drastically contracted forcing stringent rationing of housing, goods and services.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_(TV_series)

I guess the key difference is the government in "1990" is a socialist, union dominated one whereas in the UK today socialists and unions wield little or no power.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I haven't but looking at Wiki, it seems spookily prescient:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_(TV_series)

I guess the key difference is the government in "1990" is a socialist, union dominated one whereas in the UK today socialists and unions wield little or no power.

I can't decide if May is truly evil or just easily led but it does look as if we are going to end up isolated from Europe and in Trump's pocket while she increasingly finds herself implementing more and more right wing policies to pander to the minority who want them.

It feels like we are on the verge of something very bad. History textbook levels of very bad. I truly hope I'm wrong.

 

[The Don]

I can't decide if May is truly evil or just easily led but it does look as if we are going to end up isolated from Europe and in Trump's pocket while she increasingly finds herself implementing more and more right wing policies to pander to the minority who want them.

It feels like we are on the verge of something very bad. History textbook levels of very bad. I truly hope I'm wrong.

My view is that she knows exactly what she is doing. When she was Home Secretary she was a right-wing martinet, it wasn't her fault that Call Me Dave didn't bow to her will.

Anyone who has publicly stated repeatedly that they want to be free of the ECHR is a right wing nutjob (by UK standards). In her case the shoe (kitten heeled, naturally) fits.

edited to add...

...and I'm not sure about history textbook levels of wrong so much as economic text books levels of wrong.

I've already said (in this thread I beleive) that I think (and fear) that the outcome of Brexit will be that the UK will be the first country to give up its status as a "Developed" country and revert to "Developing" status.

We will have a huge underclass of people working for starvation wages to make the UK more "competitive" with a relatively small middle class who are muddling by OK and a tiny group at the top who are making absolute fortunes. We already have some of the worst income and wealth inequality in the developed world, it's a short step to developing world levels .

We won't be able to afford universal healthcare and the NHS will be dismantled over a period of decades until we end up with a poorly-funded critical care function just barely limping along and then a private healthcare system catering to those who can afford it. Life expectancy nationally will be in the 65-70 range but the huge levels of inequality (and high infant mortality) will mean that life expectancy at birth for someone in the bottom 50% will be in the 50-60 range.

The "good" news about this is that pensions will become more affordable again, but anyone managing to live to pensionable age will have done well to get there. There will be no government provided social care however and so IMO the extended family will be making a comeback.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

My view is that she knows exactly what she is doing. When she was Home Secretary she was a right-wing martinet, it wasn't her fault that Call Me Dave didn't bow to her will.

Anyone who has publicly stated repeatedly that they want to be free of the ECHR is a right wing nutjob (by UK standards). In her case the shoe (kitten heeled, naturally) fits.

Possibly. But I sometimes get the sense that she is increasingly out of her depth. She just wanted a little bit of good old fashioned British flag waving, Gerry-hating and Frog-bashing. She strikes me more as the British country-pub Clarkson-level right wing arse.

Now she seems to be consorting with some proper wrong-uns and getting herself backed into impossible positions. You know the movie plot where the aspiring baddy throws their lot in with a proper baddy only to realize that they've probably made a mistake? That's the vibe I get from May at the moment.

She's fronting it out but I don't quite get the impression that she's enjoying it that I got from Maggie.

I don't think she will last long. She might make it to the next election. Is there a proper baddy waiting in the Tory wings to usurp her?

 

[The Don]

Possibly. But I sometimes get the sense that she is increasingly out of her depth. She just wanted a little bit of good old fashioned British flag waving, Gerry-hating and Frog-bashing. She strikes me more as the British country-pub Clarkson-level right wing arse.

She may be, but I don't think so.

She comprehensively out-maneuvered the "lads" to get to the last two of the Tory leadership contest and then saw off Leadsom with a single stiletto strike. IMO she is a very skilled political operator who knows exactly what she wants and was willing to be patient to get it.

This is now her moment to be the Titanium Lady and lead Britain into the post-Brexit promised land where we may be poor, and we may be hungry but at least we are unbowed and free (to work for global corporations for peanuts)

 

[The Don]

Now she seems to be consorting with some proper wrong-uns and getting herself backed into impossible positions. You know the movie plot where the aspiring baddy throws their lot in with a proper baddy only to realize that they've probably made a mistake? That's the vibe I get from May at the moment.

Maybe it's my pessimism, talking but I think it's the other kind of movie, where the proper baddie takes a look at the aspiring baddie, underestimates them and then finds themselves at the wrong end of a shiv a few scenes later.

Kinda like Fish Mooney underestimating The Penguin in Gotham (the TV series).

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Well at least we have the white paper 'plan' now. That's cleared up any questions.


Right?

 

[Tolls]

Nope.
Utter nonsense as expected.

Dear god.

So we'll be recruiting hundreds of border staff...helping to fund (presumably) some new court for handling trade disputes with the EU, because we don't want the ECJ or anything...and how on earth do they expect that "seamless border" to work in Ireland?

Essentially they've just punted it all down the road with meaningless drivel because it's all too bloody complex for them.

This is all going to work out sooooo well...

 

[Tolls]

And they were still thrashing this out at 4 this morning?

Because that's exactly what we need for something like this...to have it rushed out. You know, it's not as if it needs any thought or anything.

 

[Aepervius]

You are delusional, or a liar.

Nan. He just only accept poll which shows he is right, and dismiss out of hand "bad" polls which does not shows him right.

 

[3point14]

I can't decide if May is truly evil or just easily led but it does look as if we are going to end up isolated from Europe and in Trump's pocket while she increasingly finds herself implementing more and more right wing policies to pander to the minority who want them.

I'm beginning to suspect she's just a little dim.

It feels like we are on the verge of something very bad. History textbook levels of very bad. I truly hope I'm wrong.

It does, doesn't it? I can't see any positive end to this at all.

I continue to be glad I have never had children.

 

[3point14]

She's fronting it out but I don't quite get the impression that she's enjoying it that I got from Maggie.

I have an appreciable amount of hate for Maggie but she was a hell of a politician. Theresa doesn't even begin to approach somewhere near getting close to Maggie.

 

[The Don]

Nope.
Utter nonsense as expected.

Dear god.

So we'll be recruiting hundreds of border staff...helping to fund (presumably) some new court for handling trade disputes with the EU, because we don't want the ECJ or anything...and how on earth do they expect that "seamless border" to work in Ireland?

Essentially they've just punted it all down the road with meaningless drivel because it's all too bloody complex for them.

This is all going to work out sooooo well...

Well we'll just stick the highlighted on the "List of things to be funded from the fictitious £350m a week"

The thing is that IMO those in charge don't give a stuff about any of that because they personally won't be hit in the pocket and indeed are likely to make a pretty penny in due course.

 

[ddt]

Well at least we have the white paper 'plan' now. That's cleared up any questions.


Right?

Wow. They actually delivered the white paper. According to the BBC:

Labour said the document "says nothing" and had been produced too late for "meaningful" scrutiny.

So why did they vote in favour of Brexit? They'll have two days next week to introduce amendments to the "European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill 2017" and then it goes to the third reading.

I guess sensible people have to put their hopes in that eminently democratic part of the British constitution to properly scrutinize the Brexit plans. I mean, of course, the House of Lords.

 

[The Don]

So why did they vote in favour of Brexit?

A couple of reasons.

Firstly, the leader of the Labour Party and many of his closest associates are anti-EU/pro-Brexit and consider the EU to be a capitalist cartel which keeps the jackboot of oppression on the working man. Once free of the malign influence of the EU they will sweep to power and create the Utopian workers' cooperative of their dreams

Secondly they have a couple of by-elections coming up and they're worried that if they're not anti-EU/pro-Brexit enough, they will leak support to UKIP (so clear across the political spectrum) and lose those by-elections. What they fail to grasp is that Corbyn himself is an electoral albatross and IMO their position regarding Brexit will have little or no impact on their inevitable by-election loss.