Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[erwinl]

You're repeating what I said.

And I went a bit further than this in the rest of my post about what it could mean for the future, in my opinion.

So, I'm not clear what you mean by this.

 

[Darat]

That would be lucky for you. If his opinion is correct.

Apparantly it is not certain though. And in that case politics can come into play.

I can see two scenarios (well more, but let's not get carried away) occurring, when revoking art 50 and the opinion of the ECJ is not correct

One where the UK is let back in the EU and all is forgotten.
The other where the other countries will want to exact some kind of retribution from the UK (adopting the euro?) in order to accept the revoking of art 50.

I do think the first option to be more likely, but won't dismiss the second option either.

Either way, the UK has lost a lot of goodwill during the last year and a half. Even if art 50 is revoked and we go with option 1, I don't think the UK will be having a lot more special treatments, like it had in the past.

We won't have left so there would be no letting back in - our membership simply wouldn't end so whatever "special treatment" we get would also continue.

 

[Darat]

ITYM "the opinion of the ECJ advocate general is not upheld by the ECJ." If the ECJ agrees, it will be a legally binding ruling rather than an opinion.



I agree, ultimately even staying in the EU would probably leave us very slightly worse off now than if we'd never had the vote to leave in the first place. But we can't put that bit of toothpaste back in the tube.
Dave

I think that if it did happen it would be one of those things that we all decide never to mention again!

 

[Dave Rogers]

I think that if it did happen it would be one of those things that we all decide never to mention again!

Good luck with that. If it happened, everyone who voted Leave in the first referendum would never stop mentioning it again.

Dave

 

[wobs]

I think that if it did happen it would be one of those things that we all decide never to mention again!

I already have had a mental image of some British holiday makers in a hotel in Germany, where the eccentric hotel manager tells his staff "don't mention Brexit! I did, but I think I got away with it".

 

[Klimax]

We won't have left so there would be no letting back in - our membership simply wouldn't end so whatever "special treatment" we get would also continue.

Maybe, but I am pretty sure you can say good by to any future special offers.

 

[angrysoba]

Maybe, but I am pretty sure you can say good by to any future special offers.

We are where we are. There's nothing we can do to prevent the damage already done, but the UK should limit further damage.

 

[Ambrosia]

We are where we are. There's nothing we can do to prevent the damage already done, but the UK should limit further damage.

At the risk of being piled on by many and various enthusiastic forum posters...

I voted leave.

I am now of the opinion that the best thing to do would be to have a 2nd referendum.

Of all the options currently on the table, Mays Brexit deal (which is worse than what we have now) and a hard Brexit then I think the hard Brexit is the best option.

It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.

I am very strongly for European Union, but I abhor the EU. It's a bloated undemocratic gravy train that badly needs serious reform. It should either be a closer Union, A US of E kind of federal republic, or it should go back to being the EEC and just be a free trade/free movement of people area. Though I doubt either of those will happen in my lifetime.

If there was a 2nd referendum then we could settle the issue and avoid years and years of arguing about Europe, which I think is probably the best way forward from this mess.

 

[Dr. Keith]

At the risk of being piled on by many and various enthusiastic forum posters...

I voted leave.

I am now of the opinion that the best thing to do would be to have a 2nd referendum.

Of all the options currently on the table, Mays Brexit deal (which is worse than what we have now) and a hard Brexit then I think the hard Brexit is the best option.

It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.

I am very strongly for European Union, but I abhor the EU. It's a bloated undemocratic gravy train that badly needs serious reform. It should either be a closer Union, A US of E kind of federal republic, or it should go back to being the EEC and just be a free trade/free movement of people area. Though I doubt either of those will happen in my lifetime.

If there was a 2nd referendum then we could settle the issue and avoid years and years of arguing about Europe, which I think is probably the best way forward from this mess.

Would you vote leave again?

 

[Undesired Walrus]

He basically just hand waves away all the real issues, saying they can/will happen but never giving any details on how these magic solutions will work. What he is really presenting isn’t so much answers to the problem but a wish list for what he’d like in the final agreement.

Unfortunately the reason for a backstop agreement in the first place is that they have been unable to negotiate a workable solution for the things he wants, and the reason that backstop agreement is likely to remain in place forever is because it’s unlikely that they will ever be able to negotiate the agreement he's outlined.

If you don't mind could you break down why his arguments relating to how there can be an invisible border in relation to customs and goods doesn't stack up?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The Government has been found to be in contempt of Parliament. Just let that sentence sink in for a minute.

 

[Ambrosia]

Would you vote leave again?

Depends on the options presented.

If it was a choice between, Mays deal and hard Brexit, I'd vote hard Brexit.

If it was a leave/remain choice, this time around I'd probably choose Remain, but be sad about it.

I (naively?) assumed after a Brexit vote there'd be twoish years of arguing over it and then a deal would be done and that would be that. The way things are looking now there are still many more years of arguing ahead while the country is stuck in limbo and neither in or out. I think that being in that kind of limbo for a long time, that much uncertainty for that much time is way worse for the UK than either remaining in the EU or a hard exit.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Full legal advice to be published after contempt vote

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46446694

The government will publish its full legal advice on Theresa May's Brexit deal after MPs found it in contempt of Parliament for not doing so.

The Commons supported a motion, backed by six opposition parties, demanding full disclosure, by 311 votes to 293.

 

[Mojo]

The Government has been found to be in contempt of Parliament. Just let that sentence sink in for a minute.

What was the sentence?

 

[The Moog]

It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.

That's a very optimistic forecast. Where did you get this from?

 

[P.J. Denyer]

At the risk of being piled on by many and various enthusiastic forum posters...

I voted leave.

I am now of the opinion that the best thing to do would be to have a 2nd referendum.

Of all the options currently on the table, Mays Brexit deal (which is worse than what we have now) and a hard Brexit then I think the hard Brexit is the best option.

It would be very painful in the short term (1-3 years) but a few months into a hard Brexit people would realise that the sky hadn't fallen and things would get better.

I am very strongly for European Union, but I abhor the EU. It's a bloated undemocratic gravy train that badly needs serious reform. It should either be a closer Union, A US of E kind of federal republic, or it should go back to being the EEC and just be a free trade/free movement of people area. Though I doubt either of those will happen in my lifetime.

If there was a 2nd referendum then we could settle the issue and avoid years and years of arguing about Europe, which I think is probably the best way forward from this mess.

My vote (or votes depending on format) would be very different to yours, but otherwise I agree with much of you've written with regard to how we would best move forward.

As a remainer I applaud your post.

 

[Armitage72]

Ah, but if you can work it by having the lamb arrive via a non-tariff country - which you could only do if you had a registered company based there - then you can get around the tariff: this is how the globalists operate, outside any of the rules a locally based company has to operate from.

The company I work for recently had a potential new customer in Italy cancel their order (cleaning products) because we're a US company with no physical presence in the EU. As the importer of a product manufactured outside the EU, the customer would have been responsible for ensuring that any hazardous chemicals they were bringing into the EU in excess of 1 tonne per year were properly registered under REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals). As far as I know, the status of the UK with regards to REACH and other European Chemical Agency regulations is still up in the air, so there could be a significant impact on the chemical industry in the UK.

 

[BobTheCoward]

That's a very optimistic forecast. Where did you get this from?

Recessions suck. Bad things happen to people. If you care about such things it is quite cruel to inflict on people.

 

[ponderingturtle]

The company I work for recently had a potential new customer in Italy cancel their order (cleaning products) because we're a US company with no physical presence in the EU. As the importer of a product manufactured outside the EU, the customer would have been responsible for ensuring that any hazardous chemicals they were bringing into the EU in excess of 1 tonne per year were properly registered under REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals). As far as I know, the status of the UK with regards to REACH and other European Chemical Agency regulations is still up in the air, so there could be a significant impact on the chemical industry in the UK.

Taking back control it totally worth ending all those pesky exports. British goods for british people! That is the whole problem, you think that british people should engage in some activity as lowly as trade! That is for the little people after all.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

And TM seems to be losing more than Fulham tonight. Grieve amendment passed with a sizeable margin. Makes stumbling into no-deal less likely.