Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[Strawberry]

Loathe to post from such a website, but this MP lays out why he thinks a border between NI and the UK can be avoided. Are his arguments unsound?

https://brexitcentral.com/avoid-hard-irish-border-remain-outside-customs-union-single-market/

His arguments are a load of rubbish. The same mixture of denial and half truths that Brexiters have been engaging on with the Irish border conundrum ever since the vote.

The only way to both avoid a hard border and preserve the integrity of the Single Market is to have controls on goods entering the island of Ireland, and the only way to do that without undermining the UK is to keep the whole UK inside a customs union with the EU. Hence, the backstop.

 

[jimbob]

In the case of Johnson I think it might be because he had to. He basically created a power base by pushing the leave narrative. By suddenly going "oh I didn't mean it" would basically destroy the support he has.

Since the referendum I'd say that every move he's made is still motivated by personal gain. The clearest is dropping out of the vote for PM. Even he knew that this was a career ending position to be in which is why he didn't take it.

Redundant text removed.

I am wondering if Trump Johnson is positioning himself as a True Believer Who Was Sabotaged By His PM And So Can't Accept The Deal She Has Negotiated And Now The Best Bet Is To Remain In The EU.

His arguments are a load of rubbish. The same mixture of denial and half truths that Brexiters have been engaging on with the Irish border conundrum ever since the vote.

The only way to both avoid a hard border and preserve the integrity of the Single Market is to have controls on goods entering the island of Ireland, and the only way to do that without undermining the UK is to keep the whole UK inside a customs union with the EU. Hence, the backstop.

Indeed.

 

[Garrison]

I think May was a Leaver who campaigned for Remain because she judged, correctly, that the Tory party never rewards the one who puts the knife in the back of a leader, however unpopular that leader might be. I think Johnson hoped that Brexit was a cause that would cause that would override that unwritten rule, as with everything else he miscalculated.

 

[lomiller]

Loathe to post from such a website, but this MP lays out why he thinks a border between NI and the UK can be avoided. Are his arguments unsound?

https://brexitcentral.com/avoid-hard-irish-border-remain-outside-customs-union-single-market/

He basically just hand waves away all the real issues, saying they can/will happen but never giving any details on how these magic solutions will work. What he is really presenting isn’t so much answers to the problem but a wish list for what he’d like in the final agreement.

Unfortunately the reason for a backstop agreement in the first place is that they have been unable to negotiate a workable solution for the things he wants, and the reason that backstop agreement is likely to remain in place forever is because it’s unlikely that they will ever be able to negotiate the agreement he's outlined.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Brexit Divorce:


Made me ROFL

 

[Mr Fied]

Loathe to post from such a website, but this MP lays out why he thinks a border between NI and the UK can be avoided. Are his arguments unsound?

https://brexitcentral.com/avoid-hard-irish-border-remain-outside-customs-union-single-market/

I don't understand how any brexiteer does not want a hard border in Ireland. Surely the main idea of leaving was so that "we" regained control of our borders. If we haven't got a border, how can we control it?

 

[KDLarsen]

The opposition has put forth a motion to hold the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, in contempt for having disobeyed the order to produce the full legal advice on Brexit to the members of the House, instead releasing a summary.

It's being suggested that if Bercow permits the motion to be debated, which he promised an answer to either tonight or tomorrow, it could be seen as a weathervane on whether or not May has the votes to pass the Brexit bill. There's already 95 Tory MP's who has stated they cannot support it, and if the Attorney General is found in contempt, he will be suspended from the House and cannot vote for it either.

More on the story from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-minister-suspension-brexit-legal-advice-deal

 

[Vixen]

The opposition has put forth a motion to hold the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, in contempt for having disobeyed the order to produce the full legal advice on Brexit to the members of the House, instead releasing a summary.

It's being suggested that if Bercow permits the motion to be debated, which he promised an answer to either tonight or tomorrow, it could be seen as a weathervane on whether or not May has the votes to pass the Brexit bill. There's already 95 Tory MP's who has stated they cannot support it, and if the Attorney General is found in contempt, he will be suspended from the House and cannot vote for it either.

More on the story from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-minister-suspension-brexit-legal-advice-deal

As we now know, he has admitted the motion for the House to decide.

Bercow is a remainer and sports a car sticker reading 'Brexit is Bollocks'.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

And the positive news is that the courts have decided that we can unilaterally revoke Art 50 if we come to our senses. This has to be done surely if the deal is not passed

 

[angrysoba]

As we now know, he has admitted the motion for the House to decide.

Bercow is a remainer and sports a car sticker reading 'Brexit is Bollocks'.

“Bollocks to Brexit”

 

[erwinl]

And the positive news is that the courts have decided that we can unilaterally revoke Art 50 if we come to our senses. This has to be done surely if the deal is not passed

Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?

 

[Dave Rogers]

Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?

This is a non-binding opinion by the ECJ's advocate general. If the ECJ rules that it's correct, then it's a matter of EU law, and I would think the rest of the EU countries are bound by treaty to accept it. But in any case I suspect most of the rest of the EU would be more than happy to see the whole Brexit issue disappear.

Dave

 

[angrysoba]

Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?

If the opinion of the ECJ member is correct, nobody even needs to.

 

[KDLarsen]

In the "Overheard in restaurant.." category, here's Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1069641587251183619.html

My favourite bit:

Truss: My new vision is all about the roads. We need to push to get company sponsorship for the Top 10 motorways. Like they have in the USA where Burger King sponsor pot holes. We'll wait until the New Year though because obviously now everything is consumed by Brexit.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

In the "Overheard in restaurant.." category, here's Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1069641587251183619.html

My favourite bit:

With the roads around here, "Polo Mints" might be interested in applying.

 

[erwinl]

If the opinion of the ECJ member is correct, nobody even needs to.

That would be lucky for you. If his opinion is correct.

Apparantly it is not certain though. And in that case politics can come into play.

I can see two scenarios (well more, but let's not get carried away) occurring, when revoking art 50 and the opinion of the ECJ is not correct

One where the UK is let back in the EU and all is forgotten.
The other where the other countries will want to exact some kind of retribution from the UK (adopting the euro?) in order to accept the revoking of art 50.

I do think the first option to be more likely, but won't dismiss the second option either.

Either way, the UK has lost a lot of goodwill during the last year and a half. Even if art 50 is revoked and we go with option 1, I don't think the UK will be having a lot more special treatments, like it had in the past.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Anybody asked the rest of the EU countries if they would accept a move like this?

It is not a matter for the EU countries as any dispute would be referred to the ECJ to ajudicate and this today shows that the ECJ would accept that it can be revoked unilaterally.

The only issue then would be getting Parliament to vote it through or TM to take one for the team and do it herself.

 

[Dave Rogers]

I can see two scenarios (well more, but let's not get carried away) occurring, when revoking art 50 and the opinion of the ECJ is not correct

ITYM "the opinion of the ECJ advocate general is not upheld by the ECJ." If the ECJ agrees, it will be a legally binding ruling rather than an opinion.

Either way, the UK has lost a lot of goodwill during the last year and a half. Even if art 50 is revoked and we go with option 1, I don't think the UK will be having a lot more special treatments, like it had in the past.

I agree, ultimately even staying in the EU would probably leave us very slightly worse off now than if we'd never had the vote to leave in the first place. But we can't put that bit of toothpaste back in the tube.

Dave

 

[erwinl]

ITYM "the opinion of the ECJ advocate general is not upheld by the ECJ." If the ECJ agrees, it will be a legally binding ruling rather than an opinion.


I agree, ultimately even staying in the EU would probably leave us very slightly worse off now than if we'd never had the vote to leave in the first place. But we can't put that bit of toothpaste back in the tube.

Dave

highlighted.True. apologies for my sloppiness.

 

[angrysoba]

If his opinion is correct.

You're repeating what I said.