Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

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Captain_Swoop said:
Right, what does the head of HM Revenue and Customs know about it!
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Not a lot if you do the maths - the quoted cost is equivalent to 500,000 people being employed full time doing customs forms. It seems to be an extrapolation from the time taken to fill in 1 form manually, when in reality the process would be highly automated.
 
Hammond says 'Brexit deal dividend' would deliver economic boost

The chancellor has said that Britain could see an economic boost if it successfully negotiates a Brexit deal with the European Union.

Philip Hammond told the BBC that there has been a "measurable change of pace" in talks, adding to the sense of optimism that a deal could be imminent.

He said there were still hurdles, but the "process" was much more positive.

If a deal is done, the UK could enjoy a "deal dividend" which would "deliver us an upside" for the economy, he said.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45833907
 
Delphic Oracle said:
Personally I found the part where some people were threatened with violent murder a bit more attention-grabbing than the vague economic prediction part.

YMMV.
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Focusing on the point of the article? That's not the Brexit we voted for!

Seriously, though... I don't know what to make of it. Is 2 death threats a lot? Is it unusual?
 
Aber said:
Not a lot if you do the maths - the quoted cost is equivalent to 500,000 people being employed full time doing customs forms. It seems to be an extrapolation from the time taken to fill in 1 form manually, when in reality the process would be highly automated.
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Really? Still doing the Dunning-Kruger bit?
 
Aber said:
Moving on from arguments to insults... :rolleyes:
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It's not an insult. I am just surprised. Your big talk on VAT completely collapsed and yet, just days later, you are back talking big. I would have thought you'd be a bit more intellectually careful now.
 
Aber said:
If you're a regular exporter, it's as simple to produce as a delivery note. Once you're large enough to have a computerised stock system then it's trivial.
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True, but a delivery note is not a document for customs clearance.

ETA: I guess it will have to be TIR shipping. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TIR_Convention.
Again extra paperwork.

"Since the formation of the European single market, the TIR procedure has become unnecessary for intra-EU goods transport."
 
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Yeah, we'll just have one of the fall interns -Sam seems like an eager go-getter- have Sam pick up some infrastructure and technology on his way in to the office tomorrow.

All right, well that was easy enough. What's next?
 
Aber said:
If you're a regular exporter, it's as simple to produce as a delivery note. Once you're large enough to have a computerised stock system then it's trivial.
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And how does this tie in with the way HMRC did its calculations?
If you read the letter from Jon Thompson back in June which covers this whole thing it looks to me like they calculated the sum based on the make up of businesses currently trading with the EU, from small to large.

I'm not sure where in that work you are trying to claim they fudged the numbers?

Of course this "streamlined system" assumes that the current customs software (which I believe was never designed for this workload, and has shown signs of having problems with the current workload) will actually work.

ETA: Forgot the link:
https://www.parliament.uk/documents...ondence/2017-19/hmrc-customs-costs-040618.pdf
 
Belgian thought said:
True, but a delivery note is not a document for customs clearance.

ETA: I guess it will have to be TIR shipping. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TIR_Convention.
Again extra paperwork.

"Since the formation of the European single market, the TIR procedure has become unnecessary for intra-EU goods transport."
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SAD1 or C88A's as we in the UK call it, 12 pages of questions. Comes with a free 8 page continuation sheet . Seems completed copies are sent to different places. Presumably this would need to be completed for every sale and shipment of goods to and from the EU.

Any HMRC estimate of costs for business will have come from businesses themselves. I am aware of surveys they have done in the past on costs incurred in meeting HMRC obligations. Given these forms already exist are are used by businesses (for sales outside the EU) I see no reason why the cost estimates would not be accurate.
 
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Lothian said:
SAD1 or C88A's as we in the UK call it, 12 pages of questions. Comes with a free 8 page continuation sheet . Seems completed copies are sent to different places. Presumably this would need to be completed for every sale and shipment of goods to and from the EU.

Any HMRC estimate of costs for business will have come from businesses themselves. I am aware of surveys they have done in the past on costs incurred in meeting HMRC obligations. Given these forms already exist are are used by businesses (for sales outside the EU) I see no reason why the cost estimates would not be accurate.
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You see no reason to think that £20 billion isn't an accurate estimate? I'm not sure what period the £20 billion is supposed to be spent over - is it yearly? Let's be generous and assume it's for a ten year period so that's "only" £2 billion per year. If we employ people full time for this task (whatever it is) and pay them each £40,000 salary to do it, that's fifty thousand people employed doing this work.


Maybe you think that's reasonable? I don't.
 
It makes you wonder who is going to deal with all this paperwork generated by these tens of thousands of people beavering away generating it full time. Presumably the civil service and the EU will also need to employ tens of thousands of extra people to process all this paper and put it in folders or filing cabinets or whatever they're supposed to do with it.

The whole enterprise should do wonders for the economy! All those extra pen-pushing jobs! More work for the postal service! Also a bigger market for the paper manufacturers, and the people who make and sell desks, chairs, filing cabinets, and other office equipment! It could herald a whole new economic boom
 
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