Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

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Just been to a conference on how Brexit will affect part of my job. It was run by the Government, and showed how they are limited in how much they can prepare.

While they can change legislation (moving EU regs into UK regs where appropriate), much of the process is unknown, and they are working on the assumption of a No Deal. Any deal is impossible to predict currently, so the No Deal scenario is the only they can plan for.

Even then, they are limited in what they can do, as they can't negotiate with their opposite numbers in Europe until they leave. There has been some communications, but this has been limited.

We still have no idea on many aspects of what might happen after 29th March 2019.

Also, there were some representation from N.Ireland who had some interesting input, as there are so many unknowns in this area for them.
 
So far the no deal option seems to be the most possible outcome but one still cannot exclude the possibility of a last minute agreement.

UK and EU businesses might have to waste huge amounts of time and money in making plans for an option that might not be the one adopted at the very end of the process.
 
no deal papers out

Haven't read them all but from what I can tell-

There will be a land border in Ireland and there will need to be declarations for all goods crossing that and the other borders.

Where we can maintain the status quo on financial services we will but the EU might not so EU banks and citizens can carry on here unaffected but UK banks will not be able to trade in Europe and UK citizens won't get access to their money while abroad.

Charges for using credit cards will rise.

There will be no relaxing of the state aid rules (sorry Jezza)

All new medicines will need to be approved by a UK body as well as an EU one.

All the money the EU gives us back in grants for things like farming education will in future be paid by the UK. Presumably we will set up new departments to administer the process.
 
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Lothian said:
no deal papers out

Haven't read them all but from what I can tell-

There will be a land border in Ireland and there will need to be declarations for all goods crossing that and the other borders.

Where we can maintain the status quo on financial services we will but the EU might not so EU banks and citizens can carry on here unaffected but UK banks will not be able to trade in Europe and UK citizens won't get access to their money while abroad.

Charges for using credit cards will rise.

There will be no relaxing of the state aid rules (sorry Jezza)

All new medicines will need to be approved by a UK body as well as an EU one.

All the money the EU gives us back in grants for things like farming education will in future be paid by the UK. Presumably we will set up new departments to administer the process.
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and there will be at least as many issues that noone has thought of yet not in these papers.

The prevailing attitude amongst Brsxiters continues to be that none of this matters because somehow it won't really happen. none of them have yet managed to coherently explain how its possible to avoid this now.

Literally the only options i see to avood chaos now are

1. stop the whole thing
2. ask for an extension to the deadline
3. negotiate some kind of BRINO deal where we would no longer be a member but keep all existing rights and obligations for a petiod of say 5 years. so effectively nothing would change

Of course all 3 of these would at a minute cost May her job so not going to happen.
 
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Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Literally the only options i see to avood chaos now are

1. stop the whole thing
2. ask for an extension to the deadline
3. negotiate some kind of BRINO deal where we would no longer be a member but keep all existing rights and obligations for a petiod of say 5 years. so effectively nothing would change

Of course all 3 of these would at a minute cost May her job so not going to happen.
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Option 1 does not seem possible due to the opposition it will meet in the UK. Brexiters will never agree.

Options 2 and 3 depend on the good will of the 27 other Members States as, according to Article 50, this would need an unanimous agreement in case the UK Government would come with this kind of proposal.
 
Extension will only prolong the pain. There was a two year interval from triggering Article 50 till leaving, but now here we are seven months remaining and people crying that there's not enough time left to prepare. If there's an extension of a year, or two, or three the same thing will happen over again. Get on with it.
 
Darat said:
Who knew Brexit was so complicated?
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It should be the "easiest in human History". Although to be fair to Liam Fox when he said that, he was working on the assumption that we would keep all the benefits and trade terms we currently have and all that was needed was for the UK to no longer pay a contribution to Brussels. How was he to know that international trade has rules about borders and tarrifs and that the EU's objective was not to cut off its nose to spite its face?
 
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ceptimus said:
Extension will only prolong the pain. There was a two year interval from triggering Article 50 till leaving, but now here we are seven months remaining and people crying that there's not enough time left to prepare. If there's an extension of a year, or two, or three the same thing will happen over again. Get on with it.
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Speeding it up is the no deal option. We could do that tomorrow. When do you think the UK economy would recover from that? Rees Mogg suggested 50 years.
 
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They had that Farage on LBC talk radio yesterday who said that he once sat next to the former head of the European Commission who said he wanted a European empire. The caller said it was about immigration not political union. It was never an economic utopia before the Common market. The United Nations is a useless organisation and since when were the Jews the chosen race?
 
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