Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

[ceptimus]

I'm sure they would.
However, as we keep pointing out, such a deal (as with the Canada one) would result in our economy collapsing, as we make more money out of services than anything else.

May's proposed plan (white paper) doesn't include services either.

 

[ceptimus]

Do you think the Uk would take it? or would we prefer a deal with our special friends in the USA? I don;t see how a free trade deal with both can work while maintaining an open Irish border. It will offer a backdoor route to avoid the punitive EU/US tariffs.

If tariffs are incompatible with an open border, and you wish to keep an open border, the solution is to scrap all tariffs. It seems vanishingly unlikely that the EU would be prepared to do that.

The term 'free trade' is a misnomer in any case while tariffs are present. A better term would be 'taxed trade'.

 

[The Don]

May's proposed plan (white paper) doesn't include services either.

...as I've pointed out and criticised repeatedly

I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone posting on this board who thinks that Theresa May's white paper is anything other than a pathetic fudge - I'm happy to be proved wrong.

It may be marginally less worse than a no deal Brexit but then again it may be impossible whereas a no deal Brexit is a distinct possibility (and in my personal opinion a nailed-on favourite )

 

[Greebo]

Amazing that neither Cable nor Farron turned up for the vote.

Not sure what Cable's story is, but Farron was giving a lecture about the death of liberalism - aka he's still butthurt that he can't be a religious bigot and still lead the Lib Dems.

Its fairly extraordinary. The Lib Dems should just disband. How can they possibly hope to be taken seriously?

Not sure if this is likely, but Farron had gone from my memory until you mentioned his name - is he still leader and being a thorn in the Brexiteers side?

 

[GnaGnaMan]

If tariffs are incompatible with an open border, and you wish to keep an open border, the solution is to scrap all tariffs. It seems vanishingly unlikely that the EU would be prepared to do that.

No, that is not the solution. Tariffs are the least reason why border infrastructure is required.
Besides, Ireland requires an "invisible" border, not merely an open one.
I don't see why the EU would not agree to an effectively zero-tariff arrangement.

 

[Lothian]

If tariffs are incompatible with an open border, and you wish to keep an open border, the solution is to scrap all tariffs. It seems vanishingly unlikely that the EU would be prepared to do that.

The term 'free trade' is a misnomer in any case while tariffs are present. A better term would be 'taxed trade'.

The EU are happy to scrap tariffs. They are scrapping them with Japan. They have none with the UK. It is the UK that wants to break from the EU. That gives the default of tariffs.
The country pushing tariffs the hardest is the USA. While they insist on high tariffs on EU goods they would not accept the EU routing goods to America tariff free via the UK, which an open border facilitates.

That means there is a clear choice.

Free trade deal with the EU or the USA. Which do you choose?

 

[Lothian]

Not sure if this is likely, but Farron had gone from my memory until you mentioned his name - is he still leader and being a thorn in the Brexiteers side?

No, Faron stood down when he realised that being leader of the LibDems was incompatible with being a gay-hating Christian.

 

[Greebo]

No, Faron stood down when he realised that being leader of the LibDems was incompatible with being a gay-hating Christian.

Ah - OK.

Shows how effective I remember him being a leader then.

(My comment was also slightly tongue in cheek as there doesn't seem to be any real opposition to the Conservatives - outside their own ranks that is)

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The EU are happy to scrap tariffs. They are scrapping them with Japan. They have none with the UK. It is the UK that wants to break from the EU. That gives the default of tariffs.
The country pushing tariffs the hardest is the USA. While they insist on high tariffs on EU goods they would not accept the EU routing goods to America tariff free via the UK, which an open border facilitates.

That means there is a clear choice.

Free trade deal with the EU or the USA. Which do you choose?

Actually its possible to have an FTA with both - Korea do for example. Of course the devil is in the detail and an FTA only provides a very limited subset of the benefits that being in the EU provides.

 

[Lothian]

Actually its possible to have an FTA with both - Korea do for example. Of course the devil is in the detail and an FTA only provides a very limited subset of the benefits that being in the EU provides.

But despite free trade agreement the countries are not connected and they have hard borders. Goods are tracked as they enter and exit Korea so it is easier to know their origin.
We are talking about a system where there will be no checking of goods between the EU and the UK (through Ireland). It will be far easier to pretend they are UK origin goods without the pesky import documentation from Italy.

 

[KDLarsen]

Amazing that neither Cable nor Farron turned up for the vote.

Not sure what Cable's story is, but Farron was giving a lecture about the death of liberalism - aka he's still butthurt that he can't be a religious bigot and still lead the Lib Dems.

Its fairly extraordinary. The Lib Dems should just disband. How can they possibly hope to be taken seriously?

Apparently Labour had indicated that they would abstain from the vote, and by the time it became apparent that not only would they vote against it, they would also be joined by Tory rebels including a minister, it was too late to recall them.

Incidently, both of them are voting with Labour and some Tory rebels on an amendment to force the UK into a customs union, unless an agreement on frictionless trade has been reached by January 21, 2019. Should be an interesting one to follow.

 

[Tolls]

May's proposed plan (white paper) doesn't include services either.

Which is one amongst plenty of reasons it is a load of old tosh.
And that was before Mogg's Amendments.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

But despite free trade agreement the countries are not connected and they have hard borders. Goods are tracked as they enter and exit Korea so it is easier to know their origin.
We are talking about a system where there will be no checking of goods between the EU and the UK (through Ireland). It will be far easier to pretend they are UK origin goods without the pesky import documentation from Italy.

but thats beyond an FTA and therefore more than ceptimus was asking for.

ACtually an FTA sometime around 2027 would look like the best we can hope for now. Sadly.

 

[KDLarsen]

I have to admit, I chuckled at this exchange

In the Commons Labour’s Toby Perkins raises a point of order and asks if the speaker knows anything about the whereabouts of Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, who Perkins says was tweeting about being the only person fighting Brexit this morning but was not in the Commons to vote last night. The Lib Dem Tom Brake responds by making another point of order, asking if the speaker knows of the whereabouts of Jeremy Corbyn, who Brake says has been absent for two years in the fight against Brexit.

From the Guardian's Politics Live commentary

 

[abaddon]

We are still in the EU at the moment, so we already have the deal.

for a few months more. After that you are on your own.

Who knows what will happen regarding Brexit right now?

Everyone except the UK.

I suppose it can't be decided whether Japan and the UK will agree the same or similar deal as the EU one until the final form of Brexit or non-Brexit is agreed and implemented.

Oh that's just great, isn't it. You can't get a deal until you leave but somehow you are certain that it will be the best deal. Sure it will take ten years to thrash out and sure the EU already has one that you are walking away from, but isn't it worth it to keep out those darkies? That's worth it, right? You can live with the "slants" right?

Do you think the EU is prepared to offer the UK the same deal they have signed with Japan?

No. In the EU the UK ranks lower than Turkey, an applicant member. The UK is a former member. A supplicant, in effect.

 

[KDLarsen]

The customs amendment failed by 6 votes, 301 to 307. According to a reporter from The Sun, a few Labour brexiteers were vital to ensure it failed. Almost universal agreement amongst political reporters that Tory whips had threathened with a vote of no confidence, had the amendment passed, so if the bit about labour MP's is true, some pointed questions regarding propping up a shaky Tory government could be asked of them...

 

[Andy_Ross]

It will be far easier to pretend they are UK origin goods without the pesky import documentation from Italy.

What do you mean? We have always been famous for our Parma Ham, Vintage Barolo and Ducati motorbikes.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Still, look on the bright side. Our politicians may be morons guided by naked self interest or fanatical adherence to dogma in the face of evidence, expert advice or common sense, but at least our leaders haven't publicly announced their Putin Puppethood.

It's not much, but it's something.

 

[The Don]

What do you mean? We have always been famous for our Parma Ham, Vintage Barolo and Ducati motorbikes.

Just call it Parmo Ham with an IGD of Middlesbrough

 

[The Don]

Theresa May had a bit of a bruising PMQs

Theresa May has insisted any Brexit deal must be "workable" as she came under fire from both Labour and Conservative MPs in the Commons.

During Prime Minister's Questions, she said she disagreed with Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, who asked her "at what point it was decided Brexit means Remain"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867977

OTOH Corbyn says:

Jeremy Corbyn said the Conservatives had "sunk into a mire" of infighting.

Rest assured that Labour would do the same if they were in charge.