Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

She has already agreed with the EU on the status of the Irish border as a fallback position though


meanwhile from Facebook

Retweeted Spar4 (@Mckendrick36):

The cars of cabinet ministers have to queue to get checked on the way into Chequers? I would have thought they’d have some magical technology making seamless friction free entry. #Chequers https://t.co/bzesFyLNTV

Agreed with the EU? She hasnt even spoken to the devolved parliaments about the powers of theirs that she is bartering away without their permission

 

[Andy_Ross]

Already wailing and gnashing of teeth from keen Brexiters over her 'surrender' to Europe and the betrayal of Brexit.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal

The cabinet has reached a "collective" agreement on the basis of the UK's future relationship with the EU after Brexit, Theresa May has said.

Ministers have signed up to a plan to create a free trade area for industrial and agricultural goods with the bloc, based on a "common rule book".

They also supported what could amount to a "combined customs territory".

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg said the plan, agreed after a 12-hour meeting, would "anger many Tory Brexiteers".

Our political editor said the prime minister had "picked a side" by opting for a closer relationship with the EU than many colleagues desired - and she now had to sell it to her party and the other European leaders.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444

Very good. The UK is now about ready to call a referendum to chose whether to stay in the EU or to leave and negotiate for these terms.
I think it's a non-starter, though. The only way a majority of the public would vote for leave is if you combined all the reasonable and unreasonable options for leaving but even that wouldn't add up to 52%.

 

[Darat]

Very good. The UK is now about ready to call a referendum to chose whether to stay in the EU or to leave and negotiate for these terms.
I think it's a non-starter, though. The only way a majority of the public would vote for leave is if you combined all the reasonable and unreasonable options for leaving but even that wouldn't add up to 52%.

Yeah not an option I think I can vote for so I suspect when the referendum happens I'll vote against adopting this.

 

[jimbob]

Agreed with the EU? She hasnt even spoken to the devolved parliaments about the powers of theirs that she is bartering away without their permission

In the preliminary negotiations:

http://www.irishnews.com/news/brexi...-if-no-brexit-solution-agreed-1205997/?ref=sh


"Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland.

"In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

Northern Ireland is going to remain aligned with the South - unless May wants to renege on her agreement. Not an impossible idea, admittedly.

 

[Aber]

Northern Ireland is going to remain aligned with the South - unless May wants to renege on her agreement. Not an impossible idea, admittedly.

Up to a point...

The EU draft withdrawal agreement has full alignment with the EU and a border in the Irish Sea, which has not been accepted by the UK as that is not what December's text says.

I'm unclear what yesterday's Cabinet agreement means for Ireland, but it sounds as if it's an attempt to get an agreement which effectively overrides the backstop.

 

[ceptimus]

It's a "Brexit plan" of sorts, but no one would have voted for this plan if it had been spelled out in the referendum. Also, it still has to be negotiated.

Probably the EU won't accept it in its current form - it will need to be modified to make it an even worse deal than the one suggested before it becomes acceptable to the EU. Then the UK parliament can vote to accept the bad deal or reject it and leave with no deal whatsoever.

The keen leavers will be hoping for no deal rather than this soft unsatisfying fudge.

The keen remainers will be hoping to somehow remain fully in the EU rather than accept this half-in-half-out unsatisfactory compromise: it's not clear at this point whether or not that is still a viable option.

 

[Mr Fied]

It's a "Brexit plan" of sorts, but no one would have voted for this plan if it had been spelled out in the referendum. Also, it still has to be negotiated.

Probably the EU won't accept it in its current form - it will need to be modified to make it an even worse deal than the one suggested before it becomes acceptable to the EU. Then the UK parliament can vote to accept the bad deal or reject it and leave with no deal whatsoever.

The keen leavers will be hoping for no deal rather than this soft unsatisfying fudge.

The keen remainers will be hoping to somehow remain fully in the EU rather than accept this half-in-half-out unsatisfactory compromise: it's not clear at this point whether or not that is still a viable option.

This is the point I have trouble getting across to "leavers"

No one knew what they were voting for by voting leave in the referendum.

They had their own ideas of what they wanted but not what a leave vote actually meant.

Even you stated that you wanted the UK to remain in the EAW
scheme even though you are a keen leaver.

There should have been at least a thought through and agreed manifesto by the leave campaign before it was put to the people.

 

[Darat]

It's a "Brexit plan" of sorts, but no one would have voted for this plan if it had been spelled out in the referendum. Also, it still has to be negotiated.

Probably the EU won't accept it in its current form - it will need to be modified to make it an even worse deal than the one suggested before it becomes acceptable to the EU. Then the UK parliament can vote to accept the bad deal or reject it and leave with no deal whatsoever.

The keen leavers will be hoping for no deal rather than this soft unsatisfying fudge.
The keen remainers will be hoping to somehow remain fully in the EU rather than accept this half-in-half-out unsatisfactory compromise: it's not clear at this point whether or not that is still a viable option.

Or perhaps they should just learn this will be way it is after we leave the EU, and start getting used to doing "soft unsatisfying fudge" deals with country after country?

 

[quadraginta]

It's a "Brexit plan" of sorts, but no one would have voted for this plan if it had been spelled out in the referendum. Also, it still has to be negotiated.

<snip>

Do you think that the referendum to leave would have passed if any detailed plan had been laid out before the vote?

It only passed by a whisker or two. I suspect the Leave campaign was quite intentionally neglecting to offer any specifics, because if they had then at least some significant fraction of those inclined to a Brexit wouldn't have liked some part of it, no matter what it was.

Offering any specifics at all could very likely have doomed a Leave vote.

I'm sure the Leave organizers knew that going in.

 

[jimbob]

Do you think that the referendum to leave would have passed if any detailed plan had been laid out before the vote?

It only passed by a whisker or two. I suspect the Leave campaign was quite intentionally neglecting to offer any specifics, because if they had then at least some significant fraction of those inclined to a Brexit wouldn't have liked some part of it, no matter what it was.

Offering any specifics at all could very likely have doomed a Leave vote.

I'm sure the Leave organizers knew that going in.

Johnson said we could remain in the Customs Union. Which we could if the UK government agreed to it.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

In the preliminary negotiations:

http://www.irishnews.com/news/brexi...-if-no-brexit-solution-agreed-1205997/?ref=sh


"Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland.

"In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

Northern Ireland is going to remain aligned with the South - unless May wants to renege on her agreement. Not an impossible idea, admittedly.

Are you suggesting the proposal is the N Ireland remains aligned with the EU on everything and the UK aligned on only somethings (unless the UK Parliament decides not to, but that the UK parliament can't decide not to on the Northern Ireland issues) because that seems impossible practically.

As I said its a complete fudge and not realistic to expect the EU to sign up to it.

 

[Garrison]

It's a "Brexit plan" of sorts, but no one would have voted for this plan if it had been spelled out in the referendum.

You mean £350 million a week for the NHS, as good as or better trading terms with the EU? Because that's the Brexit the Leave campaign promised. But I agree if the Leave campaign hadn't been a bunch of lying criminals getting a helping hand from Moscow people probably wouldn't have voted leave.

 

[Francesca R]

Thanks for the insight.

That's OK. Thanks for your prediction which I think is precisely wrong.

 

[jimbob]

That's OK. Thanks for your prediction which I think is precisely wrong.

Opinion piece that would support your view.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/07/we-are-now-on-cruise-control-for-soft-brexit

Even where it attempts to placate hard Brexiter concerns, the document is revealing. It says that where we've accepted the common rulebook, "parliament would still have a lock on incorporating rules into the UK legal order". This seems very similar to Article 102 of the EEA - the 'right of reservation' - which allows you to block an EU rule with an ensuing loss of market access.

In order to keep Liam Fox onside, it restates that the UK will be able to do its own trade deals. Even here though, the Brexity promises ring hollow. It's technically true, as the customs partnership - were it ever to exist, which it will not - would let you vary your tariffs. But by fixing regulation to EU standards on agricultural goods, countries like the US will have lost their main incentive to strike a deal. That glorious US-UK trade deal has now effectively disappeared.

So that's our new base camp. It is a much better and more pleasant base camp than before, with some decent foundations for buildings to protect us from the chill wind, and a little bit of sunlight peeking out from behind the mountain. May has secured British government agreement on a single market on goods, a customs partnership, and a liberal European immigration regime.

On the Brexit flank, she faces few incentives to retreat backwards. The Brexiters are in disarray. They did not understand how damaging to their cause the December agreement was and they do not understand this one either.

I'd add that they also look utterly incompetent and undisciplined

Boris Johnson's "**** business" isn't going to help him with the traditional Conservative base.

David Davis is a clown who is out of his depth.

Liam Fox (who?) hasn't exactly had a noteworthy performance (unlike the previous two).

I suppose that on the backbenches, there is the potential for Rees-Mogg to ride in on his unicorn and save a hard Brexit for us all. But I don't think he'd have the confidence of the party.

 

[Aber]

I suppose that on the backbenches, there is the potential for Rees-Mogg to ride in on his unicorn and save a hard Brexit for us all. But I don't think he'd have the confidence of the party.

May's plan is a complete fudge ("we've left the single market but will continue to abide by all its rules"), which I don't think will be accepted by the EU.

However, it does technically preserve the manifesto red lines. Crossing those might be more difficult.

 

[jimbob]

May's plan is a complete fudge ("we've left the single market but will continue to abide by all its rules"), which I don't think will be accepted by the EU.

However, it does technically preserve the manifesto red lines. Crossing those might be more difficult.

Oh, agreed, and it was well reported that it was unacceptable to the EU before the meeting even started. It is the glimmer of reality that the current headbangers in Cabinet have signed up to.

It's almost as though putting incompetents in charge of negotiation doesn't work. The UK has blinked every time. The EU has been consistent in first asking what the UK government wants - which in itself is a seemingly difficultintractable question.

 

[ceptimus]

I think it's unfair to say that the UK government doesn't know what it wants. What it has always wanted is all the benefits of belonging to the EU but without any of the perceived drawbacks - so it would like an end to freedom of movement, no more payments to the EU, the ability to ignore EU law and EU courts, the right to make independent trade deals with countries outside the EU, but most everything else remaining the same as at present.

May knows that if she asked for those things the EU would say no, and she is too timid to even ask. What is worrying is that the EU will say no to even the most watered down list of requests, and like any good negotiator it will always come back with a smaller offer than what is requested.

You would think that a competent UK government would initially ask for more than they really expected to get, so that they would have room to compromise, give up some requests, and still get what they really wanted. But of course the current UK government is far from competent.

 

[fagin]

I think it's unfair to say that the UK government doesn't know what it wants. What it has always wanted is all the benefits of belonging to the EU but without any of the perceived drawbacks - so it would like an end to freedom of movement, no more payments to the EU, the ability to ignore EU law and EU courts, the right to make independent trade deals with countries outside the EU, but most everything else remaining the same as at present.

...

You'd think they'd be bright enough to know that hell is unlikely to freeze over.

 

[Garrison]

I think it's unfair to say that the UK government doesn't know what it wants. What it has always wanted is all the benefits of belonging to the EU but without any of the perceived drawbacks.

Which is what the Leave campaign promised. It was and is a ludicrous position, an outright lie used to con the voters.