Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

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Economists for Free Trade publish a report showing the benefits of Brexit.

As it claims there are more people working in and for the fishing industry than in and for the car making industry I would take it with a pinch of salt.

Our report forecasts huge economic gains in the event that Britain leaves the EU under a Super Canada or World Trade Deal. Aided by Brexit gains, it says that by 2025 there could be a dividend of £65 billion per annum for the Treasury to spend.
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https://www.economistsforfreetrade....DGET-FOR-BREXIT-ECONOMIC-REPORT-20-Oct-18.pdf

Perhaps they mean ‘after Brexit, the auto industry will employ fewer people than the fishing industry’,

What is a 'World Trade Deal'?
 
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Captain_Swoop said:
Economists for Free Trade publish a report showing the benefits of Brexit.

As it claims there are more people working in and for the fishing industry than in and for the car making industry I would take it with a pinch of salt.



https://www.economistsforfreetrade....DGET-FOR-BREXIT-ECONOMIC-REPORT-20-Oct-18.pdf

Perhaps they mean ‘after Brexit, the auto industry will employ fewer people than the fishing industry’,

What is a 'World Trade Deal'?
Click to expand...

Economists for free trade is that Rees-Mogg character's group, isn't it? Don't think they employ many economists.
 
Maybe they included fish and chip shops in their employee count but forgot about Sub contractors, Car transporters dealerships and car salesmen?
 
Figures are about 30k fishing + processing and car manufacturing 185k with 850k in wider industry.

It also mentions in the event of 'no deal' planes and air travel will not be impacted as the “deal” only refers to trade.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Economists for Free Trade publish a report showing the benefits of Brexit.

As it claims there are more people working in and for the fishing industry than in and for the car making industry I would take it with a pinch of salt.



https://www.economistsforfreetrade....DGET-FOR-BREXIT-ECONOMIC-REPORT-20-Oct-18.pdf

Perhaps they mean ‘after Brexit, the auto industry will employ fewer people than the fishing industry’,

What is a 'World Trade Deal'?
Click to expand...
I assume they mean by 'World Trade Deal' compliance with the minimum WTO criteria.
Anyway it's more of Minford's ramblings.

ETA: Also how can anyone with a pretence to a functional brain conflate "Super Canada" with WTO?
 
uke2se said:
Economists for free trade is that Rees-Mogg character's group, isn't it? Don't think they employ many economists.
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Just one, Patrick Minford, an old eurosceptic Thatcherite and part of the Liverpool Model group. A lone crank basically.
He was the "brains" behind last years study on how wonderful Brexit would be, the one that was debunked as "doubly misleading". Alan Winters described it as "just plain wrong,"
 
Mid said:
No I'm sure there's more than one of them. Gerard Lyons, B. Johnson's old economic advisory, used to be one of them so there should be at least two, unless he's left them. And I think there may be a couple more.
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You seem to be right. I was going from memory of their public launch which had 2 presiding, one of whom started proceedings by announcing he was "not an economist". Hilarity ensued.
 
Our report forecasts huge economic gains in the event that Britain leaves the EU under Our report forecasts huge economic gains in the event that Britain leaves the EU under a Super Canada or World Trade Deal. Aided by Brexit gains, it says that by 2025 there could be a dividend of £65 billion per annum for the Treasury to spend.. Aided by Brexit gains, it says that by 2025 there could be a dividend of £65 billion per annum for the Treasury to spend.
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Everything is in the 3 words I have put in bold.

Whatever a "Super Canada or World Trade Deal" might mean what are the chances one of these deals could be concluded with anyone before 2025 or even 2022.

When did the Foreign Office negotiate a trade deal for the last time? 40 years? The first obstacle they will meet on their way is their own lack of experience in that field.
 
My report forecasts that everyone will get a pony in the event that Britain leaves the EU under under a Super Canada or World Trade Deal.

Mine at least explains why we will be awash with pony excrement by the year 2025.
 
Wudang said:
You seem to be right. I was going from memory of their public launch which had 2 presiding, one of whom started proceedings by announcing he was "not an economist". Hilarity ensued.
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Well there's still not many of them and their economics is ropey. Although at least at one point they were fairly honest that their policies would lead to the complete deindustrialisation of the UK. Not sure if they're still pointing that out as I haven't bothered reading any of their stuff since the referendum
 
Creating a plan that isn't full of holes might involve experts, and as we know, we don't need no stinking experts!
 
And actual planning might lead to the conclusion that post-Brexit Britain might be worse off than at present, which would simply be pandering to Project Fear. But if nobody ever jumped off a cliff until they had a plan on how to land safely at the bottom, then who would ever jump off a cliff?

Dave
 
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