Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

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Dave Rogers said:
Yes, ISTM that's exactly what happened. It was unbelievably stupid on the part of Cameron and his government, and now we're stuck with the results. If they'd done it sensibly they'd at least have included some details of what sort of terms leaving the EU was to be done on, but they never expected anything but a win for Remain so they didn't bother.
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Yeah but... you don't get to go "Oh I was only bluffing this hand doesn't count" after the fact.

That's sort of the core of the disagreement here and why I'm getting so annoyed at everything I say being answered with either a list of all the reasons Brexit is bad (which I know) or a talking-down-to Civics 101 lecture about representative vs pure democracy.

1. Yes I know how bad Brexit is.

2. Yes I understand why we have representational vs pure democracy and other failsafes against the "Tyranny of the Majority."

Yes in properly run democracies there is almost always a failsafe, a way to go "The masses just don't get to vote on certain things directly." I've always been a strong believer in the fact that if a democracy is to survive it has to have a way to prevent itself from becoming what is functionally 3 wolves and 2 sheep voting on what to have for dinner.

But the things the "masses" don't get a say in have to be decided before hand. They can't be an after the fact excuse/rationalization for taking democratic power away from people because you don't like the answer they gave you.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
But the things the "masses" don't get a say in have to be decided before hand.
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There is. It's built in. There's no obligation to follow the results of the poll and that's stated right there in the bill that initiated it. What you're saying there should be literally exists as part of the referendum.


They can't be an after the fact excuse/rationalization for taking democratic power away from people because you don't the answer they gave you.
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The people didn't have any democratic power - That power rests in Parliament. Vested interests are pretending they do and have fooled the country, somehow, into thinking that they do, but they don't.
 
The Moog said:
LOL, Having the Conservative party talk to itself about trade is not negotiating a trade agreement.
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The EU was drawing up trade deals back in March. Again, I have no idea what you're talking about.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
Yeah but... you don't get to go "Oh I was only bluffing this hand doesn't count" after the fact.
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No, you don't. But, given that (a) the majority was very slender and (b) there are reasons to believe that the majority may now be on the opposite side, it might be worth checking, in an ideal world, whether the will of the people has changed over the last two years, because it would be a bad idea to insist on going ahead with a course of action if in fact the majority is strongly opposed to it. And, of course, if a majority still wants to leave given all that's been said in the last two years, then at least trhose of us who disagree can no longer argue that they're uninformed.

JoeMorgue said:
But the things the "masses" don't get a say in have to be decided before hand. They can't be an after the fact excuse/rationalization for taking democratic power away from people because you don't the answer they gave you.
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Agreed, although the British constitution permits exactly that. But a second referendum doesn't take democratic power away from the people; it just means that an action carried out in 2019 is the democratic will of the people of 2019, rather than that of the people of 2016. And, yes, there's a line to be drawn somewhere as to how long a referendum should be considered to represent the true will of the people, and three years is a very short distance at which to draw it; but in terms of changes in perception, it's at least arguable.

Dave
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
If Boris does take over the Tories then he really should also hold a General Election on the back of it. Which there is no guarantee he would win.
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If it appears that Theresa May is unable to negotiate a new trade deal with the European Union, because she insists too much on her Chequers plan, she could (I suppose) decide to hand over Conservative Party leadership to Boris Johnson, who would become Prime Minister.

However, I think that May might be right on one thing: there should probably be no border in the Irish Sea, the territorial integrity of the UK should be preserved by any deal, this is something the EU should understand better in my humble opinion. On the other hand, it may make sense to restore some customs checkpoints at borders between the UK and the European Union, including between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (with limited controls), if Brexit does happen (which is likely), and limit checks by using technology and internet, asking people to declare goods beforehand and so on. This is something that Boris Johnson seems to understand better than May and Barnier, in my opinion (if I understood correctly).
 
baron said:
The EU was drawing up trade deals back in March. Again, I have no idea what you're talking about.
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And the UK was rejecting all of them. Face it. You have painted yourselves into a corner on foot of delusions of grandeur and now you don't know how to get out. The French will disband the Calais UK customs enclave because they won't care anymore because the aliens are leaving their shore, the germans think the UK is nuts, the Spanish will grab Gib. Scotland will leave, NI will leave. You will have no trade deals with anyone and have to start from scratch. Nissan, Jag, BMW, Toyota, etc will all bail out, Most of the financials also. The DUP will withdraw support, sinking the tories.

Yet still, nobody will spend any time to even attempt to make it work, they think their time is better spent stamping out fires in their support base.

There is a certain schadenfreude to all of this.
 
The Moog said:
Try reading your link.
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No action can be taken until after BREXIT but proposals and counter-proposals have been under discussion for months. This is a simple fact. Whenever these are finalised, your original statement that the UK 'will exit every single trade deal it has with the EU' is unfounded.
 
baron said:
Yes, they were.
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What is being discussed is the leave agreement. The UK has outlined red lines in a future relationship but wants that relationship to include friction-less trade. All that has happened is the EU have said that the only way you can get near friction less trade with your red lines is a free trade deal (which involves border checks). No such deal can be signed until the UK leaves the EU and given the issues that currently exist no actual discussions on that deal are likely to be started for quite some time. It is our current view that we can have a common rule-bock for goods and this is the only deal on the table that we are currently willing to discuss. The EU have rejected it as unworkable.
While Trade has been discussed and consideration has been given as to what kind of trade deal might be required it is wrong to say that parties are working on a trade deal. At the moment there is no agreement on what kind of agreement is needed.
 
baron said:
Whenever these are finalised,
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The actual talks can not even start before the UK exits the EU.

Lets read your link:
...actual trade talks will only start once the UK is not an EU member.

Unlike the withdrawal agreement, the future trade deal or deals will have to be ratified by all the regional and national parliaments of the EU.
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Hey, that would have included the UK national parliament.... :)

baron said:
...your original statement that the UK 'will exit every single trade deal it has with the EU' is unfounded.
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I stated that the UK will exit every single trade agreement that it has. And it will, next year. And you can't even start talks before you exit the EU so you are in a problem.
Especially as it seems you will not even get an exit agreement....
 
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baron said:
No action can be taken until after BREXIT but proposals and counter-proposals have been under discussion for months. This is a simple fact. Whenever these are finalised,
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The time that these are finalised, as no action can be taken until after Brexit, will therefore necessarily be after Brexit. In the interim period, absent any transitional agreement, no trade treaties will be in force, as the ones that currently exist are with the EU, not with the UK.

baron said:
your original statement that the UK 'will exit every single trade deal it has with the EU' is unfounded.
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If tht had been the original statement, then it would indeed have been unfounded, as the UK has no trade deals with the EU at present; it doesn't need any as a member. But of course it wasn't the original statement, and it's probably significant that you could only contest the original statement by artificially restricting it to the null set. That's typical of the sort of dishonesty that seems to pervade every pro-Brexit claim.

Dave
 
JoeMorgue said:
Yeah but... you don't get to go "Oh I was only bluffing this hand doesn't count" after the fact.

That's sort of the core of the disagreement here and why I'm getting so annoyed at everything I say being answered with either a list of all the reasons Brexit is bad (which I know) or a talking-down-to Civics 101 lecture about representative vs pure democracy.
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Exactly democracy is a suicide pact. No matter the damange or death you will go through with this. Rethinking or even thinking at all is never permitted.
 
baron said:
What will happen is that after BREXIT there will be a slowing of the economy, and just possibly a downturn, which will resolve within a short time period. I can't think of many instances of substantive change where this pattern does not hold true.
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When I said that most Britons here are worried about the country, I meant the fate of ordinary Britons. The typical Brit does not have a well diversifide stock portfolio, or indeed any investments all.

What ordinary people have instead is skills and job experience. They are employed and receive an ever greater income over the course of their lives because they gain additional skills and experience. That's their wealth.

Brexit will, in all likelihood, make some kinds of economic activity in the UK inefficient. A lot of economic activity takes place for the sake of exporting to the EU. That means that some skills will no longer be in demand following Brexit.
Many people will find that their skills have become worthless over night. They face economic annihilation.

Nissan can just take its machines and move them to eastern Europe; an unfortunate expense but not the end of the world. Nissan's skilled workers can't sell their skills to eastern Europe. The Uk government will not allow europeans to sell their skills in the UK, so the EU will not allow Brits to sell theirs in the EU. Tit for tat...

If these ordinary people are of a certain age, they will not go back on track in a few years or decades when the economy has been restructured. They don't just start back at 0. It's over for them. Letting someone work in a capacity where they can gain valuable job experience means that the company is making an investment in that person. They won't do that if that person will leave the work force soon anyways.
 
Michel H said:
If it appears that Theresa May is unable to negotiate a new trade deal with the European Union, because she insists too much on her Chequers plan, she could (I suppose) decide to hand over Conservative Party leadership to Boris Johnson, who would become Prime Minister.

However, I think that May might be right on one thing: there should probably be no border in the Irish Sea, the territorial integrity of the UK should be preserved by any deal, this is something the EU should understand better in my humble opinion. On the other hand, it may make sense to restore some customs checkpoints at borders between the UK and the European Union, including between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (with limited controls), if Brexit does happen (which is likely), and limit checks by using technology and internet, asking people to declare goods beforehand and so on. This is something that Boris Johnson seems to understand better than May and Barnier, in my opinion (if I understood correctly).
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You really don't get it, do you? Unless the UK either signs up to the Irish backstop or comes up with another way to keep the Irish border as it is there won't be any deal.

As for the territorial integrity of the UK, maybe your government should have thought of that before wrapping themselves up in red lines about leaving the single market and customs union. They will now have to choose who to throw under the Brexit bus, the ERG or the DUP. Or Britain will be crashing out with no deal next March.
 
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