Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[The Don]

I didn't pick the best article to cite. My point is this: UK demands backstop to be abandoned and EU said "come up with a viable alternative and we can talk". British negotiators are coming to EU to discuss alternatives. In the meantime EU made no committment whatsoever. Any failure would be BJs.

My take is that some other form of the Irish backstop will result in the end. There are options still: a long, very long time limit perhaps (10 years, if it ended with a border poll, more otherwise) would perhaps be viable, or else a NI-only backstop and screw the DUP, or else a longer transition period. Given the situation those have a non-zero chance of passing. BJ has about six weeks to negotiate, that's twelve meetings. I don't expect notable progress in the first ten meetings, but desperation could be the order of the day afterwards.

Incidentally, suppose there is a successful VONC one week from today. What happens then?

McHrozni

I have a different view.

It's a ploy to try to pass the blame for the inevitable no-deal Brexit to the EU. Boris Johnson will insist that he tried his very, very hardest to get a deal but the meanies at the EU rebuffed any and all efforts.

The EU will eventually reveal that the UK didn't make any efforts at all and that all 12 meetings were just the UK insisting that the EU drop the backstop but not providing any kind of alternative proposal.

 

[McHrozni]

I have a different view.

It's a ploy to try to pass the blame for the inevitable no-deal Brexit to the EU. Boris Johnson will insist that he tried his very, very hardest to get a deal but the meanies at the EU rebuffed any and all efforts.

The EU will eventually reveal that the UK didn't make any efforts at all and that all 12 meetings were just the UK insisting that the EU drop the backstop but not providing any kind of alternative proposal.

Maybe. In a way BJ is a lot like Trump, pandering to his core base of deplorables and hoping it'll be enough. The problem is BJ will be facing an election shortly after Brexit. His best bet may be a no-deal Brexit that sees him suffer as little blame as possible, an election before the shortages and the economic fallout hit too hard (I mentioned earlier how he might buy up to three months), getre elected with a clear majority because Brexit party and Labour have been eviscerated and govern for five years with a clear majority.

If BJ has a plan and he is genuienly hoping for a no-deal Brexit, this is probably what and how.

On the other hand he may not be the evil genius and could still genuinely be convinced a different plan is possible and this would be his best attempt at doing what is best for Britain. He could genuinely think a long sentence with four big words and two different verbs amounts to a credible plan for what is an unprecendented and perhaps unique border question in recorded history. I think this one is more likely at this point.

BJ is a lot like Trump, after all.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Maybe. In a way BJ is similar to Trump, pandering to his core base of deplorables and hoping it'll be enough. The problem is BJ will be facing an election shortly after Brexit. His best bet may be a no-deal Brexit that sees him suffer as little blame as possible, an election before the shortages and the economic fallout hit too hard (I mentioned earlier how he might buy up to three months), getre elected with a clear majority because Brexit party and Labour have been eviscerated and govern for five years with a clear majority.

If BJ has a plan and he is genuienly hoping for a no-deal Brexit, this is probably what and how.

On the other hand he may not be the evil genius and could still genuinely be convinced a different plan is possible and this would be his best attempt at doing what is best for Britain. He could genuinely think a long sentence with four big words and two different verbs amounts to a credible plan for what is an unprecendented and perhaps unique border question in recorded history. I think this one is more likely at this point.

BJ is a lot like Trump, after all.

McHrozni

If there is a General Election soon after Brexit then Boris Johnson has to deliver a no-deal Brexit.

If he fails to do so then the Brexit Party will run in most, if not all, English and Welsh constituencies and while they may not win a single seat, they will take far more votes from the Conservatives than any other party. Of course the Labour Party is in a hell of a mess and so there's no guarantee that a strong Brexit Party showing will lead to a Labour government or a Labour led coalition but IMO the Brexit Party is currently the Conservatives' biggest threat electorally.

Boris Johnson has no concern for the UK IMO, his top five priorities are Boris, Boris, Boris, Boris and the Tories. He might like some kind of miracle deal where the EU suddenly rolls over completely and gives the UK all the benefits of EU membership and none of the responsibilities* but that isn't going to happen so it'll be a no-deal.

* - of course there's no consensus among Brexiteers about what is a benefit and what is a responsibility so even a miracle deal could still be rejected because a handful of Conservative MPs decide that something that their colleagues think is a clear benefit is instead an unbearable imposition.

 

[McHrozni]

If there is a General Election soon after Brexit then Boris Johnson has to deliver a no-deal Brexit.

If he fails to do so then the Brexit Party will run in most, if not all, English and Welsh constituencies and while they may not win a single seat, they will take far more votes from the Conservatives than any other party. Of course the Labour Party is in a hell of a mess and so there's no guarantee that a strong Brexit Party showing will lead to a Labour government or a Labour led coalition but IMO the Brexit Party is currently the Conservatives' biggest threat electorally.

Boris Johnson has no concern for the UK IMO, his top five priorities are Boris, Boris, Boris, Boris and the Tories. He might like some kind of miracle deal where the EU suddenly rolls over completely and gives the UK all the benefits of EU membership and none of the responsibilities* but that isn't going to happen so it'll be a no-deal.

That depends. If he's counting on a GE shortly after Halloween - as envisioned in that scenario - then the five top priorities have a problem a few years down the line. They were given a "mandate" of sorts, botched it, engineered a barely legal shutdown of Parliament to ensure no alternative takes place, created a crisis that is "not worse than the Blitz", botched that (because of course they will) and then to save their skins come to an agreement with the EU that EU was suggesting in the first place, but they weren't going to sign something that horrible because a no-deal was obviously better than a bad deal.

This is the reason why I think the second option is more likely to be correct. If BJ is an evil genius he must see where this leads and it's not pretty. If he's, well, BJ, then he might really believe he can make EU cough up something different enough for him to sell as a great victory.

Of course it's also possible that BJ is neither a proper Trump clone nor evil genius but that he's just smart enough to think three months ahead but not five years ahead.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

That depends. If he's counting on a GE shortly after Halloween - as envisioned in that scenario - then the five top priorities have a problem a few years down the line. They were given a "mandate" of sorts, botched it, engineered a barely legal shutdown of Parliament to ensure no alternative takes place, created a crisis that is "not worse than the Blitz", botched that (because of course they will) and then to save their skins come to an agreement with the EU that EU was suggesting in the first place, but they weren't going to sign something that horrible because a no-deal was obviously better than a bad deal.

This is the reason why I think the second option is more likely to be correct. If BJ is an evil genius he must see where this leads and it's not pretty. If he's, well, BJ, then he might really believe he can make EU cough up something different enough for him to sell as a great victory.

Of course it's also possible that BJ is neither a proper Trump clone nor evil genius but that he's just smart enough to think three months ahead but not five years ahead.

McHrozni

I guess time will tell.

IMO a no deal Brexit followed by a quick General Election will give Boris Johnson an excellent chance of being Prime Minister for another 5 years, with a possibility of longer if the Blitz spirit can be kindled. This is as long as the Brexit Party stand down and the Labour Party is still in a mess.

OTOH any kind of "deal" Brexit risks the Brexit Party standing in the majority of seats, getting 15%-30% of the votes (most of them from the Conservatives) and allowing Labour, the SNP and LibDems to be able to cobble together some kind of coalition, and then change the future relationship to be a Customs Union - something apparently anathema to the majority of Conservative PMs (despite the majority being in favour of "Remain" as recently as 3 years ago).

So IMO Boris has a choice of no-deal with a good chance of 5 more years as PM; and a possibility of even more; or a deal Brexit, and a good chance that he'll be out on his ear.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I guess time will tell.

IMO a no deal Brexit followed by a quick General Election will give Boris Johnson an excellent chance of being Prime Minister for another 5 years, with a possibility of longer if the Blitz spirit can be kindled. This is as long as the Brexit Party stand down and the Labour Party is still in a mess.

OTOH any kind of "deal" Brexit risks the Brexit Party standing in the majority of seats, getting 15%-30% of the votes (most of them from the Conservatives) and allowing Labour, the SNP and LibDems to be able to cobble together some kind of coalition, and then change the future relationship to be a Customs Union - something apparently anathema to the majority of Conservative PMs (despite the majority being in favour of "Remain" as recently as 3 years ago).

So IMO Boris has a choice of no-deal with a good chance of 5 more years as PM; and a possibility of even more; or a deal Brexit, and a good chance that he'll be out on his ear.

I'm not sure what the thinking is today but in the past both Labour and Lib Dem have indicated an unwillingness to work with the SNP in coalition. Both seem to value preserving the Union over making the Union worth preserving.

 

[McHrozni]

I guess time will tell.

IMO a no deal Brexit followed by a quick General Election will give Boris Johnson an excellent chance of being Prime Minister for another 5 years, with a possibility of longer if the Blitz spirit can be kindled. This is as long as the Brexit Party stand down and the Labour Party is still in a mess.

OTOH any kind of "deal" Brexit risks the Brexit Party standing in the majority of seats, getting 15%-30% of the votes (most of them from the Conservatives) and allowing Labour, the SNP and LibDems to be able to cobble together some kind of coalition, and then change the future relationship to be a Customs Union - something apparently anathema to the majority of Conservative PMs (despite the majority being in favour of "Remain" as recently as 3 years ago).

So IMO Boris has a choice of no-deal with a good chance of 5 more years as PM; and a possibility of even more; or a deal Brexit, and a good chance that he'll be out on his ear.

Yes, that would be the evil not-quite genius scenario. Possible, but fraught with risks. Blitz spirits will work on his base, but what about the Scotts and the Irish?

Polls show Scots favoring independence 52-48. If he kindles Blitz spirit then economic arguments for preserving the UK go out the window, because the fallout will be a price worth paying to cut the dependence on Westminster.

Would Blitz spirit work on that? How would BJ be remembered if he was the PM responsible for literarily ending his country of all things? It's possible he doesn't care and would be content to reign over Little England of course. But that puts him in a strange evil moron (as in mildly retarded) category, which may no longer be compatible with thinking as little as two months ahead.

Time will tell. Thus far your predictions have been better than mine, on averge.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

I'm not sure what the thinking is today but in the past both Labour and Lib Dem have indicated an unwillingness to work with the SNP in coalition. Both seem to value preserving the Union over making the Union worth preserving.

They'll have to do something about Scotland if they're to maintain the narrative UK only rules over lands that consent to being a part of the UK. The latest polls show Scottish independence in the lead with 52-48.

Mchrozni

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I have a different view.



It's a ploy to try to pass the blame for the inevitable no-deal Brexit to the EU. Boris Johnson will insist that he tried his very, very hardest to get a deal but the meanies at the EU rebuffed any and all efforts.



The EU will eventually reveal that the UK didn't make any efforts at all and that all 12 meetings were just the UK insisting that the EU drop the backstop but not providing any kind of alternative proposal.

I'm quite convinced Dominic Cummings has put a sign on Johnson's desk saying "It's the election, stupid".

No deal Brexit is inevitable because pandering to the people who genuinely want it is the key to winning the forthcoming election and winning is all Boris cares about.

 

[The Don]

Yes, that would be the evil not-quite genius scenario. Possible, but fraught with risks. Blitz spirits will work on his base, but what about the Scotts and the Irish?

What about them ?

Northern Ireland will continue to split along sectarian lines with the more moderate (by NI standards) parties picking up a few seats but the DUP and Sinn Fein picking up the majority. The DUP wants a no deal Brexit and will likely continue to support the Conservatives - so no change there.

The Conservatives currently have 13 Scottish MPs, a massive increase on the 0 or 1 they've had for the last three decades. It's likely that they will revert to the mean in the next election and pick up 0 or 1 again.

Polls show Scots favoring independence 52-48. If he kindles Blitz spirit then economic arguments for preserving the UK go out the window, because the fallout will be a price worth paying to cut the dependence on Westminster.

It is very possible that a no-deal Brexit may be the catalyst that leads to a successful independence vote in Scotland. Then again, the same could be true for any Brexit.

Would Blitz spirit work on that? How would BJ be remembered if he was the PM responsible for literarily ending his country of all things? It's possible he doesn't care and would be content to reign over Little England of course. But that puts him in a strange evil moron (as in mildly retarded) category, which may no longer be compatible with thinking as little as two months ahead.

Perhaps Scottish independence hasn't figured much in his thoughts, maybe he thinks that when push comes to shove the Scots will "see sense" and remain the UK.

Time will tell. Thus far your predictions have been better than mine, on averge.

McHrozni

Just be as pessimistic as possible

 

[McHrozni]

What about them ?

Northern Ireland will continue to split along sectarian lines with the more moderate (by NI standards) parties picking up a few seats but the DUP and Sinn Fein picking up the majority. The DUP wants a no deal Brexit and will likely continue to support the Conservatives - so no change there.

The Conservatives currently have 13 Scottish MPs, a massive increase on the 0 or 1 they've had for the last three decades. It's likely that they will revert to the mean in the next election and pick up 0 or 1 again.

It's not the MPs, it's the other Scottish thing.

It is very possible that a no-deal Brexit may be the catalyst that leads to a successful independence vote in Scotland. Then again, the same could be true for any Brexit.

Perhaps Scottish independence hasn't figured much in his thoughts, maybe he thinks that when push comes to shove the Scots will "see sense" and remain the UK.

The reasons against Scotxit are primarily economic. If a no-deal Brexit is the botched affair it's shaping up to be, that flies out the window.

Just be as pessimistic as possible

Hehe I dislike pessimism on principle. Being wrong on an internet forum sometimes comes with the attitude, but it's well worth the other benefits.

By the way, suppose no agreement is reached by October 17th, but then EU still says publically they will support another extension (of a few weeks) if UK ratifies the deal until Halloween and a longer extension (of a few months) if UK legislates for a referendum by Halloween.

Assuming those two options make it to Parliament thanks to Bercow, how would MPs vote? The EU would make it clear that BJ asked for nothing, but if either he or someone else in his seat asked for an extension in the next two weeks, it would be immediately granted if the requirements were met.

You see, the MPs could blame BJ for pushing the vote on them with his prorogation.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The reasons against Scotxit are primarily economic.

The reasons against Scotxit are primarily:

1. Rangers fans being Rangers fans
2. Entrenched Labour supporters toeing the party line
3. People who can't be bothered with change and see it as 'if it ain't broke don't fix it'
4. English people living in Scotland who see it as potentially a major inconvenience or worse

As with Brexit, few people actually understand the economics of the situation and a lot of the numbers being bandied around are guff.

The hardcore Unionists couldn't care less about the economics and those in the middle tend to be more concerned about shared history, culture, ease of movement, family connections etc.

In some ways Brexit has totally strengthened the case for Independence although ironically it makes many of the reasons for not being independent worse - e.g. there actually would have to be some kind of border controls between England and Scotland if the UK is outside the EU and Scotland is in it.

 

[McHrozni]

The reasons against Scotxit are primarily:

1. Rangers fans being Rangers fans
2. Entrenched Labour supporters toeing the party line
3. People who can't be bothered with change and see it as 'if it ain't broke don't fix it'
4. English people living in Scotland who see it as potentially a major inconvenience or worse

As with Brexit, few people actually understand the economics of the situation and a lot of the numbers being bandied around are guff.

The hardcore Unionists couldn't care less about the economics and those in the middle tend to be more concerned about shared history, culture, ease of movement, family connections etc.

In some ways Brexit has totally strengthened the case for Independence although ironically it makes many of the reasons for not being independent worse - e.g. there actually would have to be some kind of border controls between England and Scotland if the UK is outside the EU and Scotland is in it.

Given the recent events in the country, a border between Scotland and England could also be seen as a reason for Scotxit.

McHrozni

 

[a_unique_person]

The UK is now free to become a libertarian paradise.

 

[SezMe]

By the way, suppose no agreement is reached by October 17th, but then EU still says publically they will support another extension (of a few weeks) if UK ratifies the deal until Halloween and a longer extension (of a few months) if UK legislates for a referendum by Halloween.

My view from far, far away sees this as the likely scenario. Brexit hurts the EU as well as the UK and they are saner. I think they'd prefer yet another delay than no deal and will be willing to bend in order to see if something can be worked out.

 

[The Don]

The UK is now free to become a libertarian paradise.

....which is certainly what the architects of Brexit want. It's a great environment to make money - especially if the human cost is irrelevant.

 

[McHrozni]

My view from far, far away sees this as the likely scenario. Brexit hurts the EU as well as the UK and they are saner. I think they'd prefer yet another delay than no deal and will be willing to bend in order to see if something can be worked out.

That's why I'm asking. This is probably the preffered scenario for the EU. That doesn't mean it's a given, there needs to be unanimous approval.

Plus, of course, Parliament must agree to the offer, if one was made.

McHrozni

 

[Arcade22]

Like the others, the restoration of lost sovereignty was a priority but there was also a personal motivation, as she saw it, for wanting to see Brexit realised.

“My little boy is six and is extremely bright but he’s being held back because the school he goes to is one where there has been a massive influx of Romanians, Poles and other people, and the teacher’s time is being taken up with teaching their children how to speak English in the first place,” said Scarrott, who noted that most of her customers spoke in accents that appeared to be from overseas.

She was grateful for their custom but believed that the NHS, schools and other services were “overrun”, which she felt put current Westminster manoeuvring in the shade as an issue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...of-coup-fails-to-impress-brexit-backing-grays

It's that simple folks: just get rid of the Romanians and Poles instead of making sure schools are properly funded and staffed. Everything is going to work itself out after that.

 

[jimbob]

Maybe. In a way BJ is a lot like Trump, pandering to his core base of deplorables and hoping it'll be enough. The problem is BJ will be facing an election shortly after Brexit. His best bet may be a no-deal Brexit that sees him suffer as little blame as possible, an election before the shortages and the economic fallout hit too hard (I mentioned earlier how he might buy up to three months), getre elected with a clear majority because Brexit party and Labour have been eviscerated and govern for five years with a clear majority.

If BJ has a plan and he is genuienly hoping for a no-deal Brexit, this is probably what and how.

On the other hand he may not be the evil genius and could still genuinely be convinced a different plan is possible and this would be his best attempt at doing what is best for Britain. He could genuinely think a long sentence with four big words and two different verbs amounts to a credible plan for what is an unprecendented and perhaps unique border question in recorded history. I think this one is more likely at this point.

BJ is a lot like Trump, after all.

McHrozni

I think his stunt to prorogue Parliament is his attempt to get out of this.

He's setting it up to blame the EU for the no deal.

He s expects to take some flack for that, so he wants a usable majority somehow.

Prorogue Parliament
Opposition have little option but try for a no confidence vote, and a caretaker government, which will call an election.

Johnson goes to his base, trying to sell the narrative that he tried to deliver Brexit before an election but that it was betrayed and he's forced into the election, which would happen before a no deal, but which wouldn't stop it.

 

[3point14]

I think we're cooked. I'm scared.