Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Information Analyst]

For ordinary people crossing the border with small amounts of shopping in their cars, it's not worth the effort to detect and stop them. This applies at most land borders around the world - there's nothing particularly unusual about Ireland.

Except the fact that - at the moment - "ordinary people" are doing something that is entirely legal, and thus can't be stopped. They're doing exactly the same as people in the south-east of England going to Calais on a booze cruise.

 

[Lothian]

No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers. Smugglers concern themselves with the selling price of an item, not the tariff level.

I see you are unwilling to engage on what you think the prices really will be after Brexit, and whether the price differences will be sufficient to encourage mass smuggling. That's fine. I don't think there will be mass smuggling either.

You understand that a price differential incentives smuggling.

What you appear to fail to understand is how tariffs create a price differential. You claimed tariffs don't have any affect on smuggling.

Tariffs raise costs which raise prices. If you can't understand how an increase in costs leads to an increase in selling prices thus creating a differential on either side of the border there is no point continuing.

 

[Information Analyst]

Say the EU wants to slap a 40% tariff on lamb being imported to the EU: unless lamb is actually selling at a much higher price in the EU than the UK (which it won't be) then that is no incentive for smugglers.

Funny you should mention lamb. We import 100,000 tonnes of it per year, mostly from New Zealand - via EU tariff-free quotas - in the form of cheaper frozen cuts, and this amounts to a third of what we consume. We export 90,000 to 100,000 tonnes per year, mostly (80%) to France, and mostly in the form of non-frozen whole carcases or live animals.

I don't see a market for lamb smuggling there.

 

[ceptimus]

If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.

 

[Information Analyst]

I will happily buy cheap EU food that's been smuggled into the UK. I will be confident that food meets EU standards.

 

[Information Analyst]

The posters here think that the UK lamb industry will be kept alive by all the smugglers wishing to sneak it across the Irish border to EU citizens who wish to buy it without paying an extra 40% EU tax.

Except that the market for British lamb is France, not Ireland.

 

[catsmate]

So he's going to take back control of our borders by not taking back control of our only actual border?

Dave

I'm sure there was at least a half-minute between each of his lies, more than enough for most Brexiteers to forget.

 

[Lothian]

If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.

Why would the prices increase in the country that produces the goods? There are no tariffs on domestic sales.

Unfortunately my dealing with thick twats daily quota has now been used up.

 

[Information Analyst]

In the longer term, I expect UK prices to fall once we can import goods from other countries without having to pay the very high levels of EU import tariffs we currently do.

Which doesn't apply to lamb, as for example the EU tariff-free quota for New Zealand (you know, where a third of the lamb we consume comes from) has not been exceeded since 2011. The same applies to Australia's smaller quota.

 

[catsmate]

WTO rules.

Something Brexiteers seem to be experts on, until you actually ask them about said rules.

Tariff imposition wouldn't affect smugglers though.

Oh good grief, the stupid, it burns.

 

[Olmstead]

If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.

If there's an incentive to export/import a product despite a 40% tariff, then there's also an incentive to smuggle that product in order to avoid the tariff. I think that's pretty obvious. You're implying that there will be no trade between the EU and UK involving tariffs.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers.

The prices are not the same.

You're assuming all that matters is that the retail price of booze in the EU is still £20. The price of Irish whiskey is still £20, but the price of Scotch whisky is absurdly high. Some people will pay a lot of money to get Scotch whisky because that's the product they want. A smuggler can make a good profit when he's really only competing with other smugglers. Plus of course many people will not buy black market booze and others will not pay inflated prices, which will increase demand for Irish whisky instead and push up its price.

PS Just to nitpick, if anyone in the EU was actually selling scotch at the tariffed price it wouldn't be £10,000,020. They have to consider their return on capital employed. Nobody is going to hold ten million quid's worth of stock to make a fiver profit. Their cash would be better employed doing virtually anything else.

 

[catsmate]

Following a no deal Brexit you will indeed be able to buy cheap lamb - right up until it's all gone and the farmers have all gone bust. Then you'll find yourself paying a hell of a lot more.

Worry no, I'm sure Trump and his cronies will spring to the rescue with supplies of:

• GMO corn and soy (practically harmless compared to the rest)
• Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
• BVO lacked soft drinks (but at least it'll keep the Brits from igniting)
• Arsenic enhanced chicken^[1]
• Brominated (via potassium bromate) breads. They'll be whiter^[2]...
• Cereals, butter substitutes, meat and nuts preserved with BHA and BHT
• Milk from cows dosed with recombinant bovine growth hormone

[1] Yes this is actually a thing in the USA; arsenic based drugs are enthusiastically administered to animals in the US because they make chickens grow quicker and makes the meat appear pinker
[2] Sure to appeal to many Brexiteers

 

[catsmate]

The posters here think that the UK lamb industry will be kept alive by all the smugglers wishing to sneak it across the Irish border to EU citizens who wish to buy it without paying an extra 40% EU tax.

No they don't. You're deliberately distorting reality again. Pathetic really.

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

Worry no, I'm sure Trump and his cronies will spring to the rescue with supplies of:

• GMO corn and soy (practically harmless compared to the rest)
• Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
• BVO lacked soft drinks (but at least it'll keep the Brits from igniting)
• Arsenic enhanced chicken^[1]
• Brominated (via potassium bromate) breads. They'll be whiter^[2]...
• Cereals, butter substitutes, meat and nuts preserved with BHA and BHT
• Milk from cows dosed with recombinant bovine growth hormone

[1] Yes this is actually a thing in the USA; arsenic based drugs are enthusiastically administered to animals in the US because they make chickens grow quicker and makes the meat appear pinker
[2] Sure to appeal to many Brexiteers

Please tells us more about the highlighted it may make Brexit worthwhile.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

If Ireland doesn't want to accept it, they can choose to erect border posts if they wish. They'll pay for them, of course.

so there will be border infrastructure after all? your only worry is who pays for it?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Ireland is not in Schengen, so they would find it difficult to get into Ireland.

so the UK abrogates its border enforcement to Ireland? Was that part ofcthe Vote Leavr prospectus?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

If, on the other hand, you're claiming that food prices will be 40% higher in the UK than the EU, then I say good luck to the smugglers. I will happily buy cheap EU food that's been smuggled into the UK. I will be confident that food meets EU standards.

or it will be rancid horse meat. smugglers arent renowned for meeting standards.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers. Smugglers concern themselves with the selling price of an item, not the tariff level.

I see you are unwilling to engage on what you think the prices really will be after Brexit, and whether the price differences will be sufficient to encourage mass smuggling. That's fine. I don't think there will be mass smuggling either.

Do you comprehend that tariffs have to be included in the selling price????

so Scotch whisky that costs 30 euros now in france will cost 50 or 60 euros on Nov 1.

And Irish whiskey that costs 30 pounds now in the UK will cost 50 or 60 pounds on Nov 1.

But the price to buy in the Uk or Ireland domestically doesnt change. So you can buy Irish whiskey in Ireland for 20 euros and sell it in the UK for 45 or 50 pounds. and vice versa.

Of course you might not care about crime. because takimg back of the borders was only ever a slogan that meant kicking out Polish nurses apparently. But you might reflect on the fact that actual criminals tend to be naughty people.

So you might not mind organised criminals getting rich off Brexit but when they start watering down the whiskey with paint thinner and funding another mainland bombing campaign with the proceeds you might start to give a ****.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.

I think i might see what you are missing..... Smugglers dont pay the tariff. Ever. So their cost of goods start with an advantage equal to the tariff.