Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I wrote my thoughts on this many times in previous episodes of this thread. I think that it's more important to keep the Northern Ireland border open than it is to prevent illegal immigrants crossing.

Most illegal immigrants that attempt to stay for long in the UK can be found by checks on housing, employment, bank accounts, spending records unless they use cash, records of who owns vehicles passing any number-plate recognition cameras and such.

Some illegal immigrants (more than the authorities admit) sneak in already on small boats, hidden in lorries, trains, cars, and by other means - so we need methods to detect them other than when they're crossing borders anyway.

The UK will continue to allow tourists from the EU to visit in any case - it's only if they stay too long or try to live or work here without permission that they'll need to be detained and expelled.

So you are happy for anyone in the world who can make it to Ireland to enter the UK unchecked? How many terrorist attacks would it take to change your mind on that one?

what about people transiting in Ireland to the UK? leave them all unchecked?

 

[ceptimus]

What about the economic impacts of easy smuggling?

What about it? It already happens across the Irish border. There are different VAT rates on either side of the border and different duties on alcohol, tobacco, fuel and so on. Also, of course, different currencies.

Where the trading authorities discover smugglers working on a large scale, they go after them and stop them. For ordinary people crossing the border with small amounts of shopping in their cars, it's not worth the effort to detect and stop them. This applies at most land borders around the world - there's nothing particularly unusual about Ireland.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

What about it? It already happens across the Irish border. There are different VAT rates on either side of the border and different duties on alcohol, tobacco, fuel and so on. Also, of course, different currencies.

Where the trading authorities discover smugglers working on a large scale, they go after them and stop them. For ordinary people crossing the border with small amounts of shopping in their cars, it's not worth the effort to detect and stop them. This applies at most land borders around the world - there's nothing particularly unusual about Ireland.

So no customs limits for travellers?

And Ireland should accept all this why?

 

[Lothian]

What about it? It already happens across the Irish border. There are different VAT rates on either side of the border and different duties on alcohol, tobacco, fuel and so on. Also, of course, different currencies.

Where the trading authorities discover smugglers working on a large scale, they go after them and stop them. For ordinary people crossing the border with small amounts of shopping in their cars, it's not worth the effort to detect and stop them. This applies at most land borders around the world - there's nothing particularly unusual about Ireland.

The difference in the VAT rates are currently minimal so there is no money to be made smuggling. Post brexit the difference in the VAT rate will be 1/6 of the goods value. Similarly at the moment there is no duty to be paid on goods going into Ireland from the UK or vice versa. Post brexit there will be a charge up to 40% on top of the value of goods.

You appear to totally fail to understand that leaving the EU means we lose all our privileges and advantages. Why am I shocked!

Edited to say, a quick check shows that EU tariffs go up to 75% not 40% as above. WTO tariffs go up to 80%.

 

[ceptimus]

So no customs limits for travellers?

And Ireland should accept all this why?

If Ireland doesn't want to accept it, they can choose to erect border posts if they wish. They'll pay for them, of course.

 

[Aber]

Well, there all those refugees currently being kept detained in France and Belgium at the UK's request.
I guess they would all enjoy a stroll in the Irish countryside.

Ireland is not in Schengen, so they would find it difficult to get into Ireland.

 

[ceptimus]

Post brexit there will be a charge up to 40% on top of the value of goods.

Which direction(s) of travel will incur these 40% charges and why?

 

[Lothian]

Which direction(s) of travel will incur these 40% charges and why?

Both unless we waive tariffs from imports from all countries (which would make negotiating trade deals hard given we would be already allow any country to send any of their goods here tariff free. As for why because of the UCC.

 

[Andy_Ross]

WTO rules.

 

[ceptimus]

Tariff imposition wouldn't affect smugglers though.

Say the EU wants to slap a 40% tariff on lamb being imported to the EU: unless lamb is actually selling at a much higher price in the EU than the UK (which it won't be) then that is no incentive for smugglers.

 

[The Don]

Tariff imposition wouldn't affect smugglers though.

Say the EU wants to slap a 40% tariff on lamb being imported to the EU: unless lamb is actually selling at a 40% higher price in the EU than the UK (which it won't be) then that is no incentive for smugglers.

I don't think you understand......

If the EU slaps a 40% tariff on lamb then it'll always be worthwhile to smuggle lamb so long as the UK price of production plus smuggling costs makes it cheaper than importing it legally.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Tariff imposition wouldn't affect smugglers though.

Say the EU wants to slap a 40% tariff on lamb being imported to the EU: unless lamb is actually selling at a much higher price in the EU than the UK (which it won't be) then that is no incentive for smugglers.

Suppose the UK wants to impose a 40% tax on [commodity] being imported to the UK. Smugglers can then sell the stuff at a 30% profit margin and still undercut legally imported [commodity] in the UK market, because the UK price is effectively the retail price in the EU plus transport price plus 40%. And this is "taking control of our borders."

Dave

 

[Lothian]

Tariff imposition wouldn't affect smugglers though.

Exactly that is why it is attractive!

Say the EU wants to slap a 40% tariff on lamb being imported to the EU: unless lamb is actually selling at a much higher price in the EU than the UK (which it won't be) then that is no incentive for smugglers.

Currently we export a lot of lamb to the EU. Say the EU slaps on a 40% tariff then someone in the EU will pay for British lamb the current price plus 40%.
Not many will pay that despite our lamb being great. That means in the EU there is now more people wanting lamb than is available so the price of lamb in the EU will go up. Similarly there will be too much lamb in the Uk so the price here will go down. The EU can then buy their expensive lamb our our cheap lamb with 40% added. Do you ready not see an incentive for a smuggler to get cheap UK lamb into the EU without paying the 40% tariff?

 

[Andy_Ross]

With no trade deal tariffs will default to WTO for both imports and exports.

 

[ceptimus]

It's not the tariff level that the smugglers are concerned about - only the profits they can make by smuggling.

I doubt if any of you believe that lamb prices across the rest of Europe will rise 40% as a result of Brexit - so you must think that lamb prices in the UK are going to fall by the same amount.

If you're claiming that our UK food prices will fall that much, then that is yet another good reason for leaving the EU. I look forward to being able to buy my lamb and other food items up to 40% cheaper than I can right now!

 

[Lothian]

It's not the tariff level that the smugglers are concerned about - only the profits they can make by smuggling.

I doubt if any of you believe that lamb prices across the rest of Europe will rise 40% as a result of Brexit - so you must think that lamb prices in the UK are going to fall by the same amount.

If you're claiming that our UK food prices will fall that much, then that is yet another good reason for leaving the EU. I look forward to being able to buy my lamb and other food items up to 40% cheaper than I can right now!

#facepalm

 

[ceptimus]

If, on the other hand, you're claiming that food prices will be 40% higher in the UK than the EU, then I say good luck to the smugglers. I will happily buy cheap EU food that's been smuggled into the UK. I will be confident that food meets EU standards.

 

[Pixel42]

Following a no deal Brexit you will indeed be able to buy cheap lamb - right up until it's all gone and the farmers have all gone bust. Then you'll find yourself paying a hell of a lot more.

 

[GlennB]

It's not the tariff level that the smugglers are concerned about - only the profits they can make by smuggling.

I doubt if any of you believe that lamb prices across the rest of Europe will rise 40% as a result of Brexit - so you must think that lamb prices in the UK are going to fall by the same amount.

If you're claiming that our UK food prices will fall that much, then that is yet another good reason for leaving the EU. I look forward to being able to buy my lamb and other food items up to 40% cheaper than I can right now!

#bangingheadondesk

 

[ceptimus]

Following a no deal Brexit you will indeed be able to buy cheap lamb - right up until it's all gone and the farmers have all gone bust. Then you'll find yourself paying a hell of a lot more.

The posters here think that the UK lamb industry will be kept alive by all the smugglers wishing to sneak it across the Irish border to EU citizens who wish to buy it without paying an extra 40% EU tax.