Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

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Garrison said:
Also given its an election year in the USA how much progress will there actually be on a trade deal?
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Before the election: None. Zip. Nada.

The Dems are not going to give Trump another trade deal, no matter how bad it is.

After the election, assuming Trump loses, very, very little attention will be focused on foreign trade deals given the YUGE internal problems the USA will be facing after four years of a disastrous administration. BJ will have to get in line.
 
Garrison said:
Talking tough only works if you have leverage and credibility, Boris Johnson has neither.



Yes, which is pretty much what the UK is going to have to do in all its trade negotiations however much Little Englanders stamp their feet and demand special treatment. If the EU, which actually wants a reasonable deal, is playing hardball what do you think the USA and China are going to do?
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If the deal on offer is a bad one, then the UK doesn't accept it, and trades instead under WTO rules. This applies to all countries (and protectionist trading blocs) that the UK negotiates with. This is very simple and obvious: only the petulant foot-stamping remainers seem unable to understand it.
 
John Bolton Tweeted

@AmbJohnBolton
Brexit is done! Happy first full day of UK Independence as they reclaim their sovereignty from the EU. Brexit reflects deeply held views that the British enjoy governing themselves & are done surrendering their interests to the EU bureaucracy
@BorisJohnson
 
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ceptimus said:
Talking tough to try to secure a good deal. Negotiation 101. Something Theresa May was never prepared to do, but something the EU has done throughout, and will continue to do.
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Terrible way to negotiate something like a trade deal, it's a little kids view of business negotiations.
 
ceptimus said:
The alternative is to just agree to everything the other side wants.
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No. The alternative is to sit down, understand what both you and the "other side" want, understand what is most important for each side, understand where each side can compromise if necessary, and then work with the other side to come up with an agreement that both of you are satisfied with. Now in trade talks it is slightly different in that you start with an agreed deal and are then trying to improve on that deal for both sides.
 
Darat said:
The Guardian: Johnson to impose full customs checks on goods from EU – report.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...e-full-customs-checks-on-goods-from-eu-report

Opps...
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This will impact greatly on the Just-In-Time business model originating from Japan and which is is now the standard for the car industry (amongst many others, especially online retailers).

The devastating impact of a hard Brexit on the UK car industry was laid bare on Tuesday to MPs, who were told every 15 minutes of customs delays would cost some manufacturers up to £850,000 a year.

Presenting the industry’s most detailed evidence yet to the business select committee, Honda UK said it relied on 350 trucks a day arriving from Europe to keep its giant Swindon factory operating, with just an hour’s worth of parts being held on the production line.

The Japanese-owned company said it would take 18 months to set up new procedures and warehouses if Britain left the customs union but that, with 2m daily component movements, even minor delays at Dover and the Channel tunnel would force hundreds of its trucks to wait for the equivalent of 90 hours a day.
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Guardian, article from two years ago.

In other words, manufacturers are going to have to regress to the old-fashioned system of keeping stocks of all the parts, together with making goods in advance of orders so that they are ready to deliver when the orders come in. If they get the forecast wrong, then surely going into liquidation - or, more likely, moving production to a more customs friendly country - will be the outcome.

British cars are extremely popular here in Finland but the car sales market is price sensitive. An increase of the predicted 10% will result in consumers turning to the competitive Italian and Czech market, instead. Honda is a big seller here, too, presumably imported from the production lines in the UK. (The Toyota Varis is the bestseller, I believe.)

While 56% of British car exports go to Europe, just 7% of EU exports go the UK. “The UK is an important market but what matters more is protecting the EU single market,” said Hawes.
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From the same article, there is the issue of the work force:

The industry also fears the impact of new immigration rules for EU nationals. Already 14% of Honda’s 3,500 to 4,000-strong Swindon workforce are from other EU countries, but this is growing fast: of the 600 extra workers hired to build new Civic model last year, 40% were EU workers, as are 30% of the staff at the company’s European HQ in Bracknell.
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EU citizens living in the UK didn't even get a vote so I can't see them hanging around for long, anyway.
 
ceptimus said:
If the deal on offer is a bad one, then the UK doesn't accept it, and trades instead under WTO rules. This applies to all countries (and protectionist trading blocs) that the UK negotiates with. This is very simple and obvious: only the petulant foot-stamping remainers seem unable to understand it.
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Sometimes taking a bad deal is better than going with the alternative on offer, like trading on only WTO terms. But that's something that the current batch of Brexiteers seem determined to find out the hard way.

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ceptimus said:
Why?
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We'll probably find out why that is in the next couple of years... if the UKgov continues on its present heading. Not really in the mood to explain today.

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ceptimus said:
Why?
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Because the "bad" deal is still better than the WTO rules and regulations.

I suspect we are still going to get so much crap from the likes of the Mail and Express talking about "betrayal", and "we voted for Brexit not Init" when we are negotiating deals.

We have already "given up our sovereignty" in regards to trading internationally by signing on to the WTO. Any deal should be considered "bad" only if we end up with something worse than WTO rules.

And sadly it is just too easy for the media to make profits from pushing simplistic, stupid and harmful headlines rather than objective reporting.
 
The Don said:
Talking explicitly about products. Unless the UK explicitly adopts the EU standard (politically difficult because that would make us a "rule taker") then the product in question would have to be recertified for the EU regardless of whether the UK standard was higher, lower or equivalent. Certification is a time consuming and expensive process which may be worthwhile if you're doing millions of pounds worth of business but not if you're a smaller company trying to break into a market.
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No it wouldn’t. It’s already been certified to EU standards. It’s the same product. It doesn’t need to get recertified if the product doesn’t change.

As for small producers, well, you are providing a good argument for why EU membership is a bad deal. You don’t get a break on regulations by being a member.
 
ceptimus said:
If the deal on offer is a bad one, then the UK doesn't accept it, and trades instead under WTO rules. This applies to all countries (and protectionist trading blocs) that the UK negotiates with. This is very simple and obvious: only the petulant foot-stamping remainers seem unable to understand it.
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Pathetic. Remainers have constantly pointed out that any deal will be worse than we currently have and that no deal will leave us on damaging WTO terms. Brexiteers called this 'project fear' and told us Europe needs the UK more than we need the EU. This will be the easiest deal ever. We will have free trade with the EU and it won't cost us a penny because German car makers will insist on it. We will also get better trade deals with the rest of the world.
This is what 17.4m people voted for.
The only foot stamping will come from the betrayed when they realise they have been lied to.
 
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Ziggurat said:
No it wouldn’t. It’s already been certified to EU standards. It’s the same product. It doesn’t need to get recertified if the product doesn’t change.
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Post-Brexit the raw materials or components might come from sources that were previously non-compliant with EU standards and therefore avoided. But, no doubt, this is why you were careful to say "if the product doesn't change". Has Tesco's frozen chicken casserole 'changed' if it contains chlorine-washed chicken?

If the UK has to observe EU rules on such matters in order to export chicken casseroles then we are accepting their rules. If we don't then the product cannot be exported to the EU.
 
Ziggurat said:
No it wouldn’t. It’s already been certified to EU standards. It’s the same product. It doesn’t need to get recertified if the product doesn’t change.



As for small producers, well, you are providing a good argument for why EU membership is a bad deal. You don’t get a break on regulations by being a member.
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You still have no clue do you? This has been explained numerous times over the years...

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