Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[McHrozni]

That about sums it up IMO. I made the mistake of reading some of the comments. A number of people think that Labour will get a different deal, and a softer Brexit because they will have a different set of "red lines" than those adopted by Theresa May. Personally I don't see that at all:

• Labour's refusal to recognise the "four freedoms" prevents EEA membership
• Labour's insistence on having separate trade deals and providing high levels of state aid to certain companies and industries precludes membership of a Customs Union

TBH that does not preclude a deal. Labour might consent to a customs border in the Irish sea and work from that. Overall Brexit is still painfully hard, the kind of hard that comes with a printed warning to seek medical assistance if it lasts for more than four hours, but way, way better than a no deal Brexit.

I suppose that if Labour recognise the European Courts then a Ukraine-style deal might be on the cards but IMO that's not a significantly softer Brexit and certainly not something that's going to attract my vote.

Yeah. I mean, would it really be so bad if UK were like Norway?
I remember someone relevant making that recommendation a few years back.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

TBH that does not preclude a deal. Labour might consent to a customs border in the Irish sea and work from that. Overall Brexit is still painfully hard, the kind of hard that comes with a printed warning to seek medical assistance if it lasts for more than four hours, but way, way better than a no deal Brexit.

It doesnt preclude a deal, but any such deal wont be significantly different to Theresa May's deal that was rejected several times. A customs border in the Irish sea is just a permanent backstop.

Yeah. I mean, would it really be so bad if UK were like Norway?
I remember someone relevant making that recommendation a few years back.

McHrozni

A Norway-style deal is not possible, unless the Labour changes two of its red lines, it's opposition to the four freedoms and its insistence on having separate trade deals.

 

[ponderingturtle]

One of the supposed reasons for Brexit was so that we would "regain our sovereignty". Seems like the US President is telling us who our ambassador should be. Can't see that happening if we weren't desperate for a trade deal

And in the most Trump way doesn't have the guts to actually declare him Persona Non Grata and have him tossed out. He has to be passive aggressive about it not actually firing people, as that takes too much guts for Trump.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Seems to be armed force overthrew a few dictatoships...

But then I am not a pacifist.

Sure armies are quite useful for that, but you are talking a armed rabble not an organized army.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Or a few years before that, in 1775, there was "The Shot Heard Around The World" at Lexington...

Yea proxy fights between empires do result in government changes. Or are you just going to ignore all facts about how vital french involvement was to success, particularly in training and naval support. No french navy no victory at yorktown for one.

 

[McHrozni]

It doesnt preclude a deal, but any such deal wont be significantly different to Theresa May's deal that was rejected several times. A customs border in the Irish sea is just a permanent backstop.

That's true. It's still a better solution than the no deal Brexit though.

A Norway-style deal is not possible, unless the Labour changes two of its red lines, it's opposition to the four freedoms and its insistence on having separate trade deals.

Of course not. I'm just saying that politicians who campaigned for a Norway-style Brexit should be arguing for a similar feather Brexit after the referendum, or else die a horrible death of anonymity.

McHrozni

 

[Vixen]

I think a lot of people in the EU are thinking "we are better off without those idiots across the Channel anyway".

Not really, as it undermines the whole concept of the 'European Union' when one of the major nations departs.

 

[The Don]

That's true. It's still a better solution than the no deal Brexit though.




Of course not. I'm just saying that politicians who campaigned for a Norway-style Brexit should be arguing for a similar feather Brexit after the referendum, or else die a horrible death of anonymity.

McHrozni

The trouble is that a temporary backstop was enough to get May's deal rejected repeatedly. A permanent backstop is hardly going to have a greater likelihood of passing.

A soft Brexit was dead in the water once the two main parties adopted their respective red lines.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Not really, as it undermines the whole concept of the 'European Union' when one of the major nations departs.

I can see a flaw in your argument...

Dave

 

[Jack by the hedge]

… For the Conservatives, it depends on whether they can convince people who voted for the Brexit Party to return to the fold - I think they can as long as they keep talking tough on Brexit. Support for UKIP evaporated over night once the Leave result was known. I can envisage the same happening for the Brexit Party when Brexit happens, especially if it's a no-deal Brexit. In this case timing is everything. A General Election with Boris at the helm and making the right noises before 31 October or after a 31 October no-deal Brexit could see Brexit Party support collapse or evaporate. OTOH if the election is in a year's time and we're still shilly-shallying around then the Brexit Party may get close to the level of support they got in the European elections.

Yes, I had failed to see that the leadership battle is nothing to do with Brexit policy (there's nothing of consequence the candidates can change, both will permit No-Deal and the electors overwhelmingly want No-Deal) it's entirely about choosing a Tory leader who can take on Farage for the hearts and minds of the populist right. So Boris has it in the bag, unless he somehow manages to throw the bag into a canal. But as soon as Brexit is delivered, Farage is a busted flush. Look what the electors did to Churchill as soon as the war was over, and people liked him.

Labour are still thrashing around to find a policy. The current dog's dinner doesn't appeal to Remainers (vote Labour for a Labour Brexit) or the small minority of Labour Leave supporters (vote Labour and we'll stop Brexit if we can). It's almost as if they're trying to ensure they are unelectable.

It took the unions' announcement of their policy toward Brexit and the fine difference between them and Corbyn to show me I'd missed something in Corbyn's latest weasel-worded pronouncement: He's not calling for a vote on the final Brexit decision per se. He said "the next prime minister", i.e. Boris, should hold a vote on their decision.

So he's campaigning for Remain and a final vote while the Tories are in power so he can't deliver Remain or a final vote but if you vote him into power you'll get his version of Brexit and no final say.

 

[McHrozni]

The trouble is that a temporary backstop was enough to get May's deal rejected repeatedly. A permanent backstop is hardly going to have a greater likelihood of passing.

Yea, but the customs border in the Irish sea allows for an independent trade policy and trade deals. That's why the first proposal was to have the backstop include just the NI, but DUP was against that and Theresa May needed them. Corbyn might not. EU already said they're fine with the backstop covering just the NI, it was their preffered option even.

A soft Brexit was dead in the water once the two main parties adopted their respective red lines.

If there is a final say on the matter that's not necessarily a bad thing. The harder the proposed Brexit the more likely it is the electorate will go for Bremain instead. The referendum legislation should further stipulate the question not to be reopened for at least 10 years. By then I suspect Nigel and Aaron both will be in prison for corruption.

McHrozni

 

[Samson]

Let us assume that the snapshot of 52 48 was taken in a false light

And that the current snapshot would more than reverse that

And further that the benefits are at least 30 to 50 years out

And that the status quo removes all doubt

Let's go for a reset. It seems possible and probable, I bet it will happen because Corbyn wants that.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Let us assume that the snapshot of 52 48 was taken in a false light

And that the current snapshot would more than reverse that

And further that the benefits are at least 30 to 50 years out

And that the status quo removes all doubt

Let's go for a reset. It seems possible and probable, I bet it will happen because Corbyn wants that.

It was more like a perfect storm than a false light.

The background was decades of dripping tabloid poison, making "barmy Brussels" their punchbag for "health and safety gone mad" and "now the bureaucrats want to..." and "you couldn't make it up" stories (which often were essentially made up).

Bring that to a resentful simmer with the arrival of a very visible wave of Eastern European workers, initially Poles, which the government could have done more to slow but instead took the line that their hands were tied by Brussels.

Add a load of non-EU migrants encamped near Calais and trying to get to Britain. Turbocharge that with the Syrian refugee crisis and the fear of ISIS terrorist infiltrators among the foreigners clamouring to get here and murder us all in our beds. The voters didn't care that they weren't Europeans; they were coming here from France, and that's European, and Angela Merkel said we had to help them and she's European.

Then neutralise the left with a new Labour leader who was both ineffectual and so quietly anti-EU that his many fans didn't realise it, even when he rather pointedly disappeared rather than campaign for Remain, and the main pro-EU party, the Lib-Dems, still in disgrace in the political wilderness after betraying their principles for a sniff of power in coalition with the Tories.

Sprinkle that with years of Tory austerity policy as their reaction to the banking crisis, bring it to the boil and choose that moment, that perfect moment, to ask the nation "Are you all happy with the status quo or would you like to kick us in the balls?".

 

[lomiller]

Or a few years before that, in 1775, there was "The Shot Heard Around The World" at Lexington...

Primacy of Parliament was established 100 years before that. The English colonies in North America were rebelling against a Democracy not a dictatorship.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Primacy of Parliament was established 100 years before that. The English colonies in North America were rebelling against a Democracy not a dictatorship.

And of course they didn't want representation in parliament as it would give them no power as a tiny minority.

 

[McHrozni]

Primacy of Parliament was established 100 years before that. The English colonies in North America were rebelling against a Democracy not a dictatorship.

They rebelled against an oligarchy with certain elements of democracy in place at any rate. UK in 1775 had much more in common with Russia or China of today than with UK of today.

McHrozni

 

[Information Analyst]

They rebelled against an oligarchy with certain elements of democracy in place at any rate. UK in 1775 had much more in common with Russia or China of today than with UK of today.

 

[Samson]

Foreign Direct Investment and Brexit

“6 Conclusions:
How much additional FDI does a country receive as a consequence of being a member of the EU? This is an obviously important question for which, surprisingly, one still finds very few answers. The objective of this note was to try to redress this gap. Does the use of modern econometric techniques wipe out the EU effect on FDI? We find it surely does not. EU membership robustly increases FDI inflows. Our three main estimates
range between 14% and 38% depending on the choice of econometric technique. The average of these is 28%, which implies that leaving the EU would reduce FDI inflows by around 22%. Our magnitudes are comparable with alternative methodologies. Whichever way the data are cut, Brexit is likely to have the effect of significantly lowering FDI coming to the UK.”

https://www.kenwitsconsultancy.co.u...e-Centre-for-Economic-Performance.pdf#page=50

So a guaranteed decline in wealth for all in the UK with Boris Johnson and the idiots backing him.
Also extreme pain for current expats, all future travelers, and business people.
Have I missed anything?

 

[ceptimus]

Foreign Direct Investment and Brexit

Have I missed anything?

Only that a majority voted for leaving and that the government and main opposition party promised that they would therefore leave.

If you continue to believe that economic forecasts (nearly always wrong) are more important than democracy, that's fine. There's at least one political party that has 'democrat' in its name that believes the same.

 

[Pixel42]

And if the majority of the people you were locked in a house with voted to set it on fire would you meekly accept that democratic decision, sit there quietly and burn, ceptimus? Or would you do everything you could to persuade them to change their minds before that decision was implemented?