Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Random]

Not an expert by any means, but it seemed to me that a lot of UK politicians were basically waiting for Brexit to conclude in whatever fashion (Deal/No-Deal/Bremain/Magical-Unicorn-Salvation), at which point they would dump all the blame and political fallout on May and boot her to the curb. Now she is showing herself the door before the end, so whoever gets PM next will have to take the role of blame-sponge. Who would actually want that job?

 

[The Don]

A quick look at that link shows it does not actually say that all . What is says is not about elected MP's, but just about the opinion of ordinary people who are paid-up members of the Conservative party, who say that they would prefer a No Deal rather than the deal Mrs May was presenting ... and that's a very different matter to a majority of elected Conservative MP's in the HoC actually wanting a No Deal exit. Though just in case anyone gets the wrong impression here (which at least one poster clearly did in a different current thread) – I'm almost the least likely person here to ever vote for Conservative policies/candidates/governments .

My original point only related to Conservative Party members...

Given that the majority of the Conservative party members are in favour of a no-deal Brexit then IMO the next leader of the party will try and force through a no-deal Brexit. It's likely that they will actively do this rather than just sitting on their hands and letting it happen by default.

The majority of Conservative MPs were in favour of Remain when it was official party policy. They then became in favour of Theresa May's deal when it became official party policy. I have no doubt that they will be in favour of a no-deal Brexit if that becomes official party policy.

There will be some dissenters who prefer no-Brexit or a softer Brexit but I don't honestly know whether that will be fewer dissenters than there were against Theresa May's deal. Conservative Party associations are very much in favour of a no-deal and MPs considering dissent against no-deal if it were to become official party policy would find themselves being forcibly reminded that they aren't guaranteed to be the candidate at the next election.

 

[The Don]

Not an expert by any means, but it seemed to me that a lot of UK politicians were basically waiting for Brexit to conclude in whatever fashion (Deal/No-Deal/Bremain/Magical-Unicorn-Salvation), at which point they would dump all the blame and political fallout on May and boot her to the curb. Now she is showing herself the door before the end, so whoever gets PM next will have to take the role of blame-sponge. Who would actually want that job?

I think that Boris Johnson believes he will successfully manage to negotiate a fantastic Brexit deal and/or lead the UK into a new golden age post-Brexit and will be perfectly willing to take the job.

I'd put Raab, Gove and Rees-Mogg into that camp as well.

 

[Random]

I think that Boris Johnson believes he will successfully manage to negotiate a fantastic Brexit deal and/or lead the UK into a new golden age post-Brexit and will be perfectly willing to take the job.

I'd put Raab, Gove and Rees-Mogg into that camp as well.

Ah, right. I occasionally forget that some people have more ego then sense...

 

[The Don]

Ah, right. I occasionally forget that some people have more ego then sense...

Sadly the House of Commons is full of them - and the Conservative Party doesn't have a monopoly on them.

 

[Mr Fied]

I think that Boris Johnson believes he will successfully manage to negotiate a fantastic Brexit deal and/or lead the UK into a new golden age post-Brexit and will be perfectly willing to take the job.

I'd put Raab, Gove and Rees-Mogg into that camp as well.

I'm not too sure. They were all quick enough to retreat into the shadows after the referendum,where they could throw out their opinions and soundbites without actually having to come up with a workable plan or take any responsibility for their actions.

If a deal had been done and they could come in now without taking any of the blame for the outcome I'm sure they'd all be throwing their hats in the ring. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they put forward another sacrificial lamb if they can't guarantee getting no deal through.

 

[Information Analyst]

The worrying thing is I've heard loads of remainers saying they'd vote leave now (not because they agree with it but 'because we lost and it's only fair') but I've yet to hear any of the leavers I know switch the other way, just become more committed to leaving.

I know far more Remainers than Leavers, and I have literally never heard any of them say that. In fact, most are even more intensely Remain than they were previously. In contrast, of the few Leavers I know, most seem to want to avoid the subject.

 

[The Don]

I'm not too sure. They were all quick enough to retreat into the shadows after the referendum,where they could throw out their opinions and soundbites without actually having to come up with a workable plan or take any responsibility for their actions.

If a deal had been done and they could come in now without taking any of the blame for the outcome I'm sure they'd all be throwing their hats in the ring. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they put forward another sacrificial lamb if they can't guarantee getting no deal through.

Some of them threw their hats in the ring last time but failed to win the election. It may very well be different this time around with one of the arch-Brexiteers being successful, especially as the party membership have made their views clearly known.

Boris in particular hardly retreated to the shadows - he was foreign minister after all, Raab was Brexit minister and in his own mind doubtless played a blinder and Gove has been lurking around the leader like Wormtongue. I think all of them believe they would have been far more successful if only Theresa May (and reality ) weren't holding them back.

 

[Information Analyst]

Nice observation from David Mellor today: "I know enough [about horse racing] to know that if 17 horses are in a race, and each of their trainers thinks they’ve got a chance, it means there isn’t a decent nag in the thing..."

OK, it is David Mellor, but even so....

 

[IanS]

My original point only related to Conservative Party members...



The majority of Conservative MPs were in favour of Remain when it was official party policy. They then became in favour of Theresa May's deal when it became official party policy. I have no doubt that they will be in favour of a no-deal Brexit if that becomes official party policy.

There will be some dissenters who prefer no-Brexit or a softer Brexit but I don't honestly know whether that will be fewer dissenters than there were against Theresa May's deal. Conservative Party associations are very much in favour of a no-deal and MPs considering dissent against no-deal if it were to become official party policy would find themselves being forcibly reminded that they aren't guaranteed to be the candidate at the next election.

Oh, OK. I misread that then.

But they don't have a vote in the HoC lol! What matters is the way MP's vote in the HoC on any proposed Deal or No Deal.

 

[catsmate]

The fact that it's unlikely that the Conservatives would do well in a general election means it's unlikely that they will call one early. Better to limp along with a wafer thin majority and a supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP than be out of power altogether.

There are 313 Conservative MPs, even with the DUP's ten they're relying on abstentions, former conservatives and a few indos.
Now if Sinn Féin actually manage some moral; courage the number needed for a majority goes from 321 to 324 (allowing for the casting vote).

 

[Ian Osborne]

Some of them threw their hats in the ring last time but failed to win the election.

If you remember, they all withdrew their hats again, leaving May as leader without contesting an election. It seems all the others were smart enough to know Cameron had handed his successor (whomever it might be) an impossible job. And so it proved.

I have a small degree of sympathy for May, in that what she tasked herself with doing just couldn't be achieved by anyone. But then I remember today's tears were not for the Grenfell fire victims, the Windrush generation, the people forced to use food banks thanks to austerity or the workers losing their jobs because of Brexit. They were for herself.

 

[Mr Fied]

If you remember, they all withdrew their hats again, leaving May as leader without contesting an election. It seems all the others were smart enough to know Cameron had handed his successor (whomever it might be) an impossible job. And so it proved.

I have a small degree of sympathy for May, in that what she tasked herself with doing just couldn't be achieved by anyone. But then I remember today's tears were not for the Grenfell fire victims, the Windrush generation, the people forced to use food banks thanks to austerity or the workers losing their jobs because of Brexit. They were for herself.

Her desire to be PM far outweighed what should have been the obvious realisation that the job was indeed impossible.

 

[Information Analyst]

Her desire to be PM far outweighed what should have been the obvious realisation that the job was indeed impossible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle

 

[The Don]

I have a small degree of sympathy for May, in that what she tasked herself with doing just couldn't be achieved by anyone. But then I remember today's tears were not for the Grenfell fire victims, the Windrush generation, the people forced to use food banks thanks to austerity or the workers losing their jobs because of Brexit. They were for herself.

A harsh, but ultimately fair analysis IMO

 

[Lothian]

Nice observation from David Mellor today: "I know enough [about horse racing] to know that if 17 horses are in a race, and each of their trainers thinks they’ve got a chance, it means there isn’t a decent nag in the thing..."

OK, it is David Mellor, but even so....

I am surprised he is not dipping his toe into the water. Wait. I need a different metaphor. I'll be back.

 

[Lothian]

I have a small degree of sympathy for May, in that what she tasked herself with doing just couldn't be achieved by anyone. But then I remember today's tears were not for the Grenfell fire victims, the Windrush generation, the people forced to use food banks thanks to austerity or the workers losing their jobs because of Brexit. They were for herself.

 

[Mr Fied]

If you remember, they all withdrew their hats again, leaving May as leader without contesting an election. It seems all the others were smart enough to know Cameron had handed his successor (whomever it might be) an impossible job. And so it proved.

I have a small degree of sympathy for May, in that what she tasked herself with doing just couldn't be achieved by anyone. But then I remember today's tears were not for the Grenfell fire victims, the Windrush generation, the people forced to use food banks thanks to austerity or the workers losing their jobs because of Brexit. They were for herself.

To be fair, I was in tears when I saw her dancing.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

End game approaching, then. Boris will win, Boris will plump for No Deal. It's Year Zero. The damage will probably shape my children's entire working lives.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

I think that Boris Johnson believes he will successfully manage to negotiate a fantastic Brexit deal and/or lead the UK into a new golden age post-Brexit and will be perfectly willing to take the job.

I'd put Raab, Gove and Rees-Mogg into that camp as well.

I don’t (re Boris). He ran a mile when he actually won Brexit - clearly had no idea how to deliver it else he’d have stood against May.