Again, a layperson that doesn't even pretend to be a doctor in any sense (even in RPGs); isn't that what a biopsy is for? Given the advances in being able to perform minnimally invasive biopsies, wouldn't that help in making that determination?
Even biopsy does not have 100% specificity (i.e. no false posisitives) and 100% sensitivity (i.e. no false negatives). Biopsy is frequently considered a "gold standard", but sometimes a medical decision has to be made to go against a biopsy until after potentially definitive treatment.
Breast screening picks up a lot of very small and very subtle abnormalities. Not all are amenable to biopsy, or are sufficiently small that if biopsied, the biospy may be negative, but significant medical concern remains.
In a lot of cases, surgery is the result. Sometimes the definitive pathology is positive for cancer, sometimes it is not. This fact, in itself, is perhaps a bit of a digression from the point of the article.
The issue raised in this article is that even if the biopsy is positive, or the surgical specimen positive for cancer, is/was treatment appropriate? The answer is not necessarily, the impulsive "yes".
Cancer is a variable disease. Some cancers are aggressive, others are indolent and cause little harm, or cause harm only very slowly. While the natural history of large cancerous tumours is well established in most organs, in that large tumours with evidence of tissue invasion tend to kill very quickly, is reasonably well established. The same is not true in smaller tumours. Do small cancers become big cancers? Big cancers, presumably, must have been small cancers at some point; so the answer must be that at least some do. How many do, how quickly they do so, and whether some might spontaneously regress has not been clear. The traditional approach has been to regard a cancer as a cancer, and that it needs to be treated.
The point of this article comes from a recent analysis of data from the breast screening programme which is that the screening programme diagnosed 20% more cancers in the women it screened, than are diagnosed in an equivalent population of women that were not screened. The conclusion from this finding is that in unscreened women, approximately 20% will never have their breast cancer diagnosed (presumably because they never get symptoms of their cancer).