Bitcoin - Part 2

[Mycroft]

So I shouldn't have reminded belz that bitcoin has had harder slumps before?

I didn't say that, nor can it be inferred from anything I said.

What I said is it's possible that what happened in 2013 has nothing to do with what is happening now, or what will happen in the future.

All of the arguments are just recycled constantly. They are addressing claims that are not being made in this thread - mainly the claim that bitcoin is a viable currency that will replace fiat currencies (Michaelsuede hasn't posted here in a very long time).

The specific criticism of Bitcoin was its price volatility. That's a valid criticism regardless of it having been made before, regardless of what claims you are or are not trying to make, and has nothing to do with claims that Bitcoin will replace fiat currencies.

 

[applecorped]

The chief executive of cryptocurrency company Quadriga CX has died, and he's apparently the only one with the ability to unlock all his customers' coins.

Without their digital keys, his clients lose access to their funds. The company's board of directors said last week it is seeking creditor protection

Quadriga CX's $200 million problem with no solution in sight

https://boingboing.net/2019/02/04/crypto-ceo-dies-with-the-passw.html

 

[Dr.Sid]

The chief executive of cryptocurrency company Quadriga CX has died, and he's apparently the only one with the ability to unlock all his customers' coins.

Without their digital keys, his clients lose access to their funds. The company's board of directors said last week it is seeking creditor protection

Quadriga CX's $200 million problem with no solution in sight

https://boingboing.net/2019/02/04/crypto-ceo-dies-with-the-passw.html

You're late like someone trying to make money on BTC in 2018.

 

[Belz...]

You're late like someone trying to make money on BTC in 2018.

Yeah, in that amount of time, BTC could've dropped to 150 USD.

 

[fromdownunder]

Putting this here for the record.


https://www.news.com.au/finance/mon...9/news-story/f56f1eca50309545e26826c338047d14

Bitcoin ‘could rise by 84 per cent’ in 2019

A bitcoin renaissance could see the digital currency rise by as much as 84 per cent by the end of 2019, according to a panel of experts polled by Finder.com.au.
After peaking at $US20,000 in December 2017 off the back of a global cryptocurrency mania, bitcoin lost 71 per cent of its value and spent most of last year hovering around the $US4000 mark. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at just under $US3500.
Of the six fintech experts who offered their predictions, Digital Capital Management chief operating officer Ben Ritchie was the most bullish, tipping a year-end price of $US9500. The average price prediction was just under $US7000.

Norm

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I have a feeling that all of them are about to be accessed all at once.

I have a feeling they aren't, and are lost forever. I also have feeling that this won't be the last. Bitcoiners will continue to die without making appropriate arrangements, so more and more Bitcoins will become lost in cyberspace.

Imagine if banks couldn't release funds to the heirs of someone who dies if they don't have the keys to their safe deposit box. Imagine if even the Bank can't open it, but have to keep it in their vault forever. It would be ridiculous. Yet this is a 'feature' of Bitcoin.

The entity calling itself Satoshi Nakamoto owns ~980,000 bitcoins, and has never cashed any out. 'He' might actually have died a long time ago. How many other 'HODLers' are also deceased? We may never know. One thing's for sure though, the number will continue to grow.

 

[psionl0]

I didn't say that, nor can it be inferred from anything I said.

What I said is it's possible that what happened in 2013 has nothing to do with what is happening now, or what will happen in the future.

Since you apparently know what the conversation between Belz and myself is about, you are probably also aware that your contribution is OT (and trivial).

The specific criticism of Bitcoin was its price volatility. That's a valid criticism regardless of it having been made before, regardless of what claims you are or are not trying to make, and has nothing to do with claims that Bitcoin will replace fiat currencies.

Again, a trivial contribution since the price of bitcoin is reported every other post.

If you really want to convince us that bitcoin is the evil spawn of the devil then you won't doing by repeating (yet again) points that everybody knows and nobody disputes.

 

[psionl0]

Putting this here for the record.


https://www.news.com.au/finance/mon...9/news-story/f56f1eca50309545e26826c338047d14

This is not as outrageous as some of the bull predictions we have seen but still just a sheer guess.

Have you bookmarked this post?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Bitcoin for Freedom, or...

We keep hearing about how Bitcoin will free people in failed states from authoritarianism. But what if it's the other way around?

North Korea may have made as much as $200 million from Bitcoin

Financial security experts believe North Korea is using virtual coin markets to inject cash into its flagging economy, which is struggling under the weight of severe international sanctions.

“I would bet that these coins are being turned into something – currency or physical goods – that are supporting North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme,” Ms Moriuchi told Vox.com...

Experts have warned that a cryptocurrency, with its anonymity, loose regulations and ability to be converted into hard currency, also offers rogue regimes like North Korea more opportunities to profit from crime...

cryptocurrencies make it easier to trade in weapons, drugs and other illicit goods. North Korea stands accused of using digital money to sell arms and buy oil from Iran and Libya.

 

[psionl0]

We keep hearing about how Bitcoin will free people in failed states from authoritarianism.

No we don't.

 

[lomiller]

I have a feeling they aren't, and are lost forever. I also have feeling that this won't be the last. Bitcoiners will continue to die without making appropriate arrangements, so more and more Bitcoins will become lost in cyberspace.

I think people are questioning whether a 30 year old who "died suddenly in India" may not really be dead. While he bitcoin may well be lost, there is no way to tell if they are even there at all.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

This is not as outrageous as some of the bull predictions we have seen but still just a sheer guess.

Less of a guess and more of a prayer. These so-called experts are all Bitcoin shills. When your job's on the line, of course you are going to talk up the price.

Right now crypto websites are full of predictions that Bitcoin will end its 'winter' and start taking off. After 2018 almost nobody is suggesting it will go 'to the moon' but even after setting the bar much lower they still gush just the same. And anyone who disagrees with their optimistic outlook is still called stupid or worse, even though the 'bears' were right all along.

But who knows? If they keep talking it up and cross their fingers hard enough, maybe they can prop it up enough to end the year slightly higher. Of course it still won't be anywhere near where they all said it would be, but who's counting?

Real experts may be able to make an informed guess based on their knowledge of market psychology, but these people are 'experts' like a priest is an expert on religion. They have to believe in it, or lose their integrity, philosophy, and self-esteem. What if the atheists bears were right? What if there is no God future for Bitcoin, and they are responsible for all the poor souls who were suckered into buying it? So they pray like hell that the price will go up (who cares by how much, so long as it's up) and they pray that they won't lose their faith - because the alternative is unthinkable.

So I will make my own 'prediction' about these 'experts'. If/when the price takes its next lurch downwards, they won't be deterred. The only change will be revising their 'expert' opinion down to $4000, or $3000, or $2000. I bet they will still be predicting a 'slow and steady rise' while everyone else is heading for the exit.

 

[psionl0]

Less of a guess and more of a prayer.

Just as it is with predictions that bitcoin will fail altogether.

These so-called experts are all Bitcoin shills. When your job's on the line, of course you are going to talk up the price.

So you are only an expert if you talk down the price. It has nothing to do with whether they know what they are talking about.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

While he bitcoin may well be lost, there is no way to tell if they are even there at all.

I'm no expert on blockchain, but I understand that the transactions are visible if you know how to look for them. Which just adds to the frustration. You know it's in there, but without the right key there's no way to get it out.

Right now about 20% of Bitcoins are stuck in the blockchain with no way out, like objects frozen in time as they fall beyond the event horizon of a black hole. And as more fall in, so the blockchain gets 'heavier' as it keeps expanding while less of it is accessible. Eventually it may (must?) get to the point where it only contains a single usable Bitcoin, but 'weighs' many terabytes. That single Bitcoin would be worth a fortune of course, but just imagine if its key only existed in the mind of a single bitcoiner who was too paranoid to entrust it to anyone else!

 

[Roger Ramjets]

So you are only an expert if you talk down the price. It has nothing to do with whether they know what they are talking about.

Only if you talk down? No, but I expect a true expert to have enough knowledge of market dynamics to recognize a bubble and what it is likely to do, and I would not expect a true expert to have 'skin in the game'. At a minimum I would want to see a properly analyzed comparison to other bubbles of a similar nature...

Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable?

What is interesting is that, although the height and length of these bubbles vary considerably, when scaled to the same log-height, a near-universal super-exponential growth is evident. And in this sense, like a sandpile, once the scaled bubble becomes steep enough (the so-called angle of repose), it will avalanche. In other words, what causes the collapse is the instability of the system itself; the instantaneous cause of collapse is secondary.

we were able to diagnose four distinct bubbles, being periods of high overvaluation and LPPLS-like trajectories, which were followed by crashes or strong corrections. This is in radical contrast to the view that crypto-markets follow a random walk and are essentially unpredictable. Further, in addition to being able to identify bubbles in hindsight, given the consistent LPPLS bubble characteristics and demonstrated advance warning potential, the LPPLS can be used to provide ex-ante predictions.Our Metcalfe-based analysis indicates current support levels for the bitcoin market in the range of 22–44 billion USD, at least three times less than the current level.

Note: current market cap is around $60 billion, so according to this analysis a further drop is expected.

 

[a_unique_person]

The chief executive of cryptocurrency company Quadriga CX has died, and he's apparently the only one with the ability to unlock all his customers' coins.

Without their digital keys, his clients lose access to their funds. The company's board of directors said last week it is seeking creditor protection

Quadriga CX's $200 million problem with no solution in sight

https://boingboing.net/2019/02/04/crypto-ceo-dies-with-the-passw.html

It's not Quadriga's problem, it's the people who put their coins in his trust. If what they say is true they will never get them back.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I have a feeling they aren't, and are lost forever. I also have feeling that this won't be the last. Bitcoiners will continue to die without making appropriate arrangements, so more and more Bitcoins will become lost in cyberspace.

That's certainly very possible. If this is a scam like I suspect, it is only possible because the nature of bitcoin makes the "I lost the password, it's all gone forever, sorry" excuse plausible. I recall some story about a guy digging through a landfill looking for an old hard drive that had a bunch of bitcoin on it from back when it was worthless. Plenty of bitcoin is likely to end up lost forever, especially bitcoins from the early days when people treated as the worthless junk they were.

A single trusted person in charge of tremendous liquid wealth makes this stink to me. Could be a case of the guy just taking the money and running. Could also be a case of trying to cover up prior mismanagement of the funds. All the coin being lost forever prevents a proper accounting.

I'm not willing to accept that he's dead solely on the merit of an Indian death cert.

 

[Belz...]

The entity calling itself Satoshi Nakamoto owns ~980,000 bitcoins, and has never cashed any out.

That is very strange. If it were a scam he would've cashed out progressively when BTC was getting to incredible values. That he/she/it hasn't supports the idea that they're either dead or uninterested.

That's out of how many BTC total?

 

[Belz...]

Since you apparently know what the conversation between Belz and myself is about, you are probably also aware that your contribution is OT (and trivial).

It might be trivial but how it is off-topic, since it's in response to one of your own arguments?

If you really want to convince us that bitcoin is the evil spawn of the devil

And that's another sign that you're being very defensive about Bitcoin specifically.

 

[Belz...]

That's certainly very possible. If this is a scam like I suspect, it is only possible because the nature of bitcoin makes the "I lost the password, it's all gone forever, sorry" excuse plausible.

Yeah but how would one cash in on that once that happens? You still have to sell your BTC.